I have just found an interesting piece from the Independent newspaper dated 17th Jan which is pertinent to the above points relating to Scotland.
Brief summary...In recent polls 52% of scots back moves to dissolve the Union. A guardian article last November said that only 20 percent of scots refer to themselves as British.
Oil and gas above the 55th parallel is under scottish jurisdiction and only half has been extracted making scotland relatively wealthy (thats 75-90% of the oil and gas). The Scots have 25% of EU tidal and wind resources.So energy wise they would manage.
Economic pessimists claim up to £11 billion deficit after independence resulting in ax rises and driving businesses to england. (What would the effect be on scottish defence planning?). Optimists amongst the separatists claim that scotland actually subsides england to £3 billion pounds a year (so England poorer in terms of GDP and expertise/manpower but the Guardian stats show that England subsides scotland to the tune of £25 billion per year allowing the scots to spend 30% more per capita on public spending).
The SNP, the report says stated in its manifesto that it would scrap trident and would prevent scottish troops taking part in "illegal" wars. But they claim that scotland would continue to have a conventional military defence that would work alongside English forces in the mutual defence of the UK.
The article recognises that England would need to fund trident and its existing commitments from a smaller budget and without scottish troops and revenue. Also it warns that this move might hasten Wales and northern Ireland seeken self determination.
So to the point of the impact on the Royal Navy... Should england decide to dispatch forces on an independent mission, getting scottish asssitance wold depend on scottish parliament giving consent. In terms of major assets such as carriers this would either mean water tight agreements or that England would have to have completely independent forces.
How would you split the navy?
Say independence is given in 2018. The UK has two new aircraft carriers, 60 JSF to fly from them.
6 type 45's( or hopefully 8), 13 Type 23's, Maybe a Type 42 struggling along. 9 SSN's of trafalgar and astute class and 4 Trident boats with 12 years of life left in them. Ocean, Ark Royal or Invincible as helicopter carriers and the amphibious ships. A nation of 5 million couldnt afford a aircraft carrier, a socialist leadership wouldnt want the subs. Would one type 45, three type 23's and one of the landing ship be a realistic trade off for a newly independent scotland? Add the Royal Regiment of Scotland and a couple of squadrons of Typhoon and Scotland would have a reasonable self defence force....but the Royal Navy would be severley depleted unless it was given the full support of the independent scottish forces and parliament.
The question would then be if the economy of England, Wales and N Ireland could afford the remainder and still be able to carry out operations. The army would lose 15% of its infantry making extended operations difficult and the 3rd Commando brigade would only have the two english based commandos, reinforced (if agreed) by the scottish one.
Labour opened the devolution box so in that sense they may achieve a weakening of the UK armed forces and the navy, so much thats its ability to assist the US at its current level would be weakened. I dont think scottish independence might happen, I am certain it will.
