I would have you look at the younger generation of South Korea in regards to this position. They never knew what living under communism was like and now their idealistic values have them preaching reunification. They protest the US and the alliance in favor of the DPRK. The youth of Taiwan are rather similar. Those who remember the pain are the ones who want to stay apart because they lived it.Time is not necessarily on the PLA’s side with regards to Taiwan reunification.
The younger generation of Taiwanese have very little in common with their mainland kin and associated culture. The youth of Taiwan, particularly in Taipei associate more with Japan / Korea than China, they certainly don’t see themselves as being an extension of the mainland. As the older generation, with memories of pre 1949 dies off, the association with the PRC will become ever more distant. This cultural/social change means Taiwanese see China’s attempts at reunification appear more like a hostile occupation than a mutually beneficial gathering of the clans.
From what I understand the PRC’s military strategy would be to blockade Taiwan, hit her hard using endless missile barrages until the latter throws the towel in. The PRC does not have the logistics tail to move resources across the Taiwanese straights.
The PLA airborne troops!
- Thread starter bjskyhorse
- Start date
So if you were told enough is enough, get in there and take care of business, how would you handle a military operation.Ok.
There are only so many ways to deploy parachute troops: Low level, high altitude and any altitude in between.
At low level the prospect of success is VERY doubtfull given Taiwanese AD assets. I would say that higher altitude approaches would be just as dangerous. Jumping onto Taiwan from high altitude by even a small unit of say a battalion is not for the operationall faint-hearted. To do so with brigades and divisions is....:jump
I'm not even considering heliborne assault! That would be like shooting fish in a barrel!
Look, maybe someone has actual jump expereince. From my reading, and I am not strictly against para-borne troops, airborne operations are as high risk as military operations can go. Last time Chinese troops jumped on exercise (with Russians) they scatered, and some of their domestically made BMD colies landed on their side
If you doubt me, please look at Taiwanese terrain. Its just not made for airborne operations.
So correct Big E: I spent 4 tours in South Korea and it is the younger generation, college youth that are wanting us out and reunification with North Korea and they actually feel that we are the ones preventing this from happening.
Taiwanese Vs Koreans
Big E – have to disagree with you there, having spent a lot of time in both South Korea and Taiwan. The South Koreans are very aggressive, nationalistic (Irish of Asia) and bemoan the suffering of their compatriots across the border. Their dream of reunification is driven by national pride and a desire to see living standards across the border improve. Interestingly, a senior Korean Army officer once said to me (off the record), once they reunify, the next thing they will do is invade Japan (obviously joking!!!)
The Taiwanese see themselves as a separate race to the mainland Chinese. They are more closely aligned with Korean and Japanese youth culture (movies, fashion, music blah, blah, blah). They also see China prospering offering great business opportunities, but that does not mean they what to come under the control of the Beijing political elite.
As I said, militarily the Chinese will blockade Taiwan, hit the countrys strategic targets hard in the vain hope they finally through the towel in. I also seriously doubt the US will become militarily involved, not because they can’t give China a bloody nose, but because China can cause so much economic damage to the US, just look carefully at your trade balance. Taiwan’s just not worth the economic pain.
Big E – have to disagree with you there, having spent a lot of time in both South Korea and Taiwan. The South Koreans are very aggressive, nationalistic (Irish of Asia) and bemoan the suffering of their compatriots across the border. Their dream of reunification is driven by national pride and a desire to see living standards across the border improve. Interestingly, a senior Korean Army officer once said to me (off the record), once they reunify, the next thing they will do is invade Japan (obviously joking!!!)
The Taiwanese see themselves as a separate race to the mainland Chinese. They are more closely aligned with Korean and Japanese youth culture (movies, fashion, music blah, blah, blah). They also see China prospering offering great business opportunities, but that does not mean they what to come under the control of the Beijing political elite.
As I said, militarily the Chinese will blockade Taiwan, hit the countrys strategic targets hard in the vain hope they finally through the towel in. I also seriously doubt the US will become militarily involved, not because they can’t give China a bloody nose, but because China can cause so much economic damage to the US, just look carefully at your trade balance. Taiwan’s just not worth the economic pain.
What are talking about - The South Korean government really doesn`t want any part of a Reunification, they remember what happened to Germany in the early nineties. Do you have any clue on what amount of humanitarian aide and the Billions of Won that will have to get pumped into North Korea.
This is a major headache for South Korea and China, they would rather at the present time get Uncle kim to change his ways and fix some of the crap that he has caused over there.
Let`s be realistic here: why would a unified Korea want to attack Japan, to settle old scores? They have a good thing going with their economy and they will not ruin that.
FutureTank
Banned Member
The young Taiwanese are regularly travelling to aminland and own property there as well as participate in commerce...however this is off thread...Time is not necessarily on the PLA’s side with regards to Taiwan reunification.
The younger generation of Taiwanese have very little in common with their mainland kin and associated culture. The youth of Taiwan, particularly in Taipei associate more with Japan / Korea than China, they certainly don’t see themselves as being an extension of the mainland. As the older generation, with memories of pre 1949 dies off, the association with the PRC will become ever more distant. This cultural/social change means Taiwanese see China’s attempts at reunification appear more like a hostile occupation than a mutually beneficial gathering of the clans
From what I understand the PRC’s military strategy would be to blockade Taiwan, hit her hard using endless missile barrages until the latter throws the towel in. The PRC does not have the logistics tail to move resources across the Taiwanese straights.
I would be interested to hear how large the PRC’s airborne lift capability is: battalion, battle-group or division sized?
Blockading Taiwan is NOT an option.
China has (apparently) the largest number of airborne troops in the World. Its major formation is the 15th Airborne Corps in Wuhan with three divisions, but there are smaller regional units also. The divisions are on 3 regiment basis.
I just can't see it, sorry. To me its an 'island too far'
The Chinese of Taiwan do not see themselves as a seperate race... they never have and they never will. They still share culture with the Chinese no matter how much globalization you throw into the picture. They share almost as much with American youth as they do with Japanese. They are called the Republic of China for a reason.
You may doubt the USN will act but we have standing orders from our president that if PROC attacks ROC we will defend them.
You are mixed-up my friend. The bloody nose would go to PROC. They are the ones benefitting from a 120 billion something dollar trade deficit. All we have to do is stop buying sneakers and we will cripple their economy.
abramsteve
New Member
If complete surprise could be acheived, then a Chinese 'shock and awe' campaign could be followed up quickly by a massive airborne invasion.
Surley the Chinesse would suffer massive losses (in the air as well as on the ground), but once airfields are secured, as well as at least some corridors of air superiority being opened, resupply and reinforcement by air would allow the invasion to continue in land. With luck (I mean a lot of it!) the invasion could be over before anyone else had time to react.
The main problem with this (besides everything being based on a lot of luck) would be the ROC navy. The Chinese would have to defeat it in order to allow seaborne resupply. This could be slightly more difficult....
Anyways thats why I see the usefulness of the PLA Airborne units.
Surley the Chinesse would suffer massive losses (in the air as well as on the ground), but once airfields are secured, as well as at least some corridors of air superiority being opened, resupply and reinforcement by air would allow the invasion to continue in land. With luck (I mean a lot of it!) the invasion could be over before anyone else had time to react.
The main problem with this (besides everything being based on a lot of luck
) would be the ROC navy. The Chinese would have to defeat it in order to allow seaborne resupply. This could be slightly more difficult....Anyways thats why I see the usefulness of the PLA Airborne units.
Agreed... Airborne units must take strategic locations before USN and the Marines arrive. PLAN can't wait for a blockade to strangle ROC to death. Once PACFLT gets there that blockade will be broken. The shock and awe campaign and invasion has to be swift and decisive. PLA doesn't have to take the island, but if they get enough men to hunker down they can come to a stalemate which will be good enough for negotiations.If complete surprise could be acheived, then a Chinese 'shock and awe' campaign could be followed up quickly by a massive airborne invasion.
Surley the Chinesse would suffer massive losses (in the air as well as on the ground), but once airfields are secured, as well as at least some corridors of air superiority being opened, resupply and reinforcement by air would allow the invasion to continue in land. With luck (I mean a lot of it!) the invasion could be over before anyone else had time to react.
The main problem with this (besides everything being based on a lot of luck
Anyways thats why I see the usefulness of the PLA Airborne units.
FutureTank
Banned Member
Steve mate, I think a cursory look at the map of Taiwan would help. I would replace 'luck' with 'miracle'.If complete surprise could be acheived, then a Chinese 'shock and awe' campaign could be followed up quickly by a massive airborne invasion.
Surley the Chinesse would suffer massive losses (in the air as well as on the ground), but once airfields are secured, as well as at least some corridors of air superiority being opened, resupply and reinforcement by air would allow the invasion to continue in land. With luck (I mean a lot of it!) the invasion could be over before anyone else had time to react.
The main problem with this (besides everything being based on a lot of luck
Anyways thats why I see the usefulness of the PLA Airborne units.
The ROC navy isn't anything special... PLAN would mow them down.
abramsteve
New Member
Well I admitt that I have only a basic knowledge of the geography of Taiwan, but I did consider the ROC navy to be fairly capable?
I figured on the PLAAF being completley occupied over Taiwan, and bu unable to lend a decent sized hand in operations against their navy. Therefore the responsibility for dealing with it would fall on the PLAN.
Is the PLAN truly that capable that it would walk all over the ROC navy? Or would it be its weight in numbers that would do the trick?
I figured on the PLAAF being completley occupied over Taiwan, and bu unable to lend a decent sized hand in operations against their navy. Therefore the responsibility for dealing with it would fall on the PLAN.
Is the PLAN truly that capable that it would walk all over the ROC navy? Or would it be its weight in numbers that would do the trick?
Between PLAAF and PLAN with their full weighted force it is simply a matter of attrition. ROC can't take loss for loss and if PROC isn't worried about heavy losses to PLAAF air superiority will be taken fairly quickly. It's better to pit them against ROC than be sitting ducks for the USN.
abramsteve
New Member
Ahh ok, agree completley. If speed is the key, and victory must come at any and all cost, then quantity is the only quality that will matter.
China vs Taiwan
I don’t know how to insert previous comments, so I will have to answer the responses to my comments one by one:
Eckherl : - The Korean Government may not want reunification based on economic grounds (financial cost of German reunification a prime example), but grass-routes Koreans do. My comment about the Korean attack on Japan was said in jest and represented the view of one person.
FutureTank – Agreed the Taiwanese are huge investors in China, you only have to visit Xiamen (closest point to Taiwan) to see the impact they are having. This does not however mean they want to be ruled by the Middle Kingdom. My comments reflected my impressions having spent time in-country; the youth are not interested in being ruled by the PRC, whether this has an impact on the military outcome, probably not.
Big-E – A war between China and the US over Taiwan would have a much greater impact upon the latter. Every Fortune 100 company in the US is now manufacturing in China (whether JV's or majority owned ventures), including the full range of industries from micro-electronics, car components, refrigerators, catalytic converters, you name it. You only have to spend a couple of days in Shanghai, Xiamen or Shenzhen to see how much the US depends on Chinese manufacturing to sustain its economy. At the end of the day the Chinese can do without sneakers and McDonalds but can the US economy live without Chinese imports?
Anyway back to the main thread – If the Chinese decide to jump into Taiwan I only hope they have taken a leaf out South Korea’s book and trained up a lot of ‘rough terrain jumpers', other than the main urban areas, it’s a pretty mountainous country .
I don’t know how to insert previous comments, so I will have to answer the responses to my comments one by one:
Eckherl : - The Korean Government may not want reunification based on economic grounds (financial cost of German reunification a prime example), but grass-routes Koreans do. My comment about the Korean attack on Japan was said in jest and represented the view of one person.
FutureTank – Agreed the Taiwanese are huge investors in China, you only have to visit Xiamen (closest point to Taiwan) to see the impact they are having. This does not however mean they want to be ruled by the Middle Kingdom. My comments reflected my impressions having spent time in-country; the youth are not interested in being ruled by the PRC, whether this has an impact on the military outcome, probably not.
Big-E – A war between China and the US over Taiwan would have a much greater impact upon the latter. Every Fortune 100 company in the US is now manufacturing in China (whether JV's or majority owned ventures), including the full range of industries from micro-electronics, car components, refrigerators, catalytic converters, you name it. You only have to spend a couple of days in Shanghai, Xiamen or Shenzhen to see how much the US depends on Chinese manufacturing to sustain its economy. At the end of the day the Chinese can do without sneakers and McDonalds but can the US economy live without Chinese imports?
Anyway back to the main thread – If the Chinese decide to jump into Taiwan I only hope they have taken a leaf out South Korea’s book and trained up a lot of ‘rough terrain jumpers', other than the main urban areas, it’s a pretty mountainous country
.It most certainly can... bringing back the 4 million manufacturing jobs we have lost would be more than welcome here. We could just as easily get them from Malay, Thialand, Japan or Taiwan. Chinese products are easily replacable. Chinese jobs created by the trade deficit are not. That is why we have one so China will have too much to lose. Those factories you speak of are the heart of Chinese industry, if they close their economy collapses.
FutureTank
Banned Member
Yes, I take your point, but given political orientation I don't think Beijing is interested
Abramsteve....you have your answerother than the main urban areas, it’s a pretty mountainous country
Ask around if anyone from 3RAR ever contemplated jumping into York Peninsula as a unit...and conducting an offensive operation
FutureTank
Banned Member
Look, Big-E is completely right, but I'm getting a bit exasperated by this discussion
Troops, ships and aircraft just don't spring into 'action' !!!
We are talking invading one of the largest islands in the World. So troops would need to be mobilised, ships prepared for action, batteries powered up and tested, aircraft fueled and armed, etc.
All these activities TAKE TIME. With Chinese BEST intentions, and most effcient performance it is unlikely that this activity will not go unnoticed.
Now Taiwanese have a smaller force, but this is a benefit because they will take less time to assume full readiness
Besides that the USN WILL be able to sail to Taiwan even from Japan, nei even from Hawaii (right Big-E?) by the time Chinese are ready to act even on shortest notice.
After that it becomes an exercise in attrition which would be fine if, as was pointed out, the entire PLA could swim to Taiwan...but they can't
Whatever the plans, China WILL need air superiority. Now the funny thing is that few people realise how many strips Taiwan has compared to the aircraft they operate. I asked myself why Taiwan should need so many airfields, and the answer I came up with is that they expect to either a) disperse widely, or b) operate more aircraft then they have. It seems to me that all the talk of USN coming to the rescue leaves out the USAF which can ferry at least a couple of wings (provided they have enough refullers - I never got to work out the numbers here) to Taiwan in less then a day! The USMC can get there with a wing even faster. That is FASTER then China's ability to prep for action! So NO air superiority.
Without air superiority you can forget amphibious assaults, airborne assaults, massed cruse missile launches, and Sahaolin monks walking on water
Cheers
Greg
abramsteve
New Member
Umm I regulary holiday on the York Peninsular. Im no expert, but I would have thought its generaly flat and rolling terrain would be ideal for an airborne landing zone...Abramsteve....you have your answer
Ask around if anyone from 3RAR ever contemplated jumping into York Peninsula as a unit...and conducting an offensive operation
When I came up with my plan for the invasion of Taiwan I said it was based on the premise that total surprise was attained.
As Big E and I have pointed out, if huge losses is considered acceptable by the PLAAF, then taking into account the lopsided numbers the PLAAF comes out on top. I didnt take into account reinforcement by local USAF or USMC units, but a stale mate in the air may be acceptable. The large number of strips you mentioned could be secured for ferry flights by air from China (PRC).
So basically if everything went to plan (not saying thats even likley), provided the PLAAF could gain air superiority for even a short amount of time, an airborne assault could force open the door for air suppyled invasion.
Cant argue with you on the size of Taiwan, but I dont think it would be necessary to control the entire island.
Whilst the entire plan is rediculous, I admitt that freely
, it does provide a reason for a large PLA airborne force.FutureTank
Banned Member
Sorry, I meant Cape York Peninsula, particularly Iron Range National ParkUmm I regulary holiday on the York Peninsular. Im no expert, but I would have thought its generaly flat and rolling terrain would be ideal for an airborne landing zone...
Or lower South like Daintree.
Yes, of course total surprise is a must, but I don't see any way to achieve it using conventional tactics.
Have the Chinese ever said huge losses are acceptable?
The strips will be occupied by USAF, and they may have something to say about it
This plan you looked at, naturally you considered the quality of the PLAAF aircraft fleet. There is no such thing as stalemate in air warfare.
There is no way PLAAF can gain air superiority. They are facing 26 operational bases vs 10 of their own in close range that would allow extended sorties and reasonable loads. Taipei is in a valley surrounded by low mountains. Any drops would have to be made around Chung-Li in the face of 7 bases! Even with no aircraft the AD assets alone would make minsemeat of aircraft unless they are at safe altitude. Of course how does one drop from that altitude in those particular conditions. The winds after all do not blow according to orders.So basically if everything went to plan (not saying thats even likley), provided the PLAAF could gain air superiority for even a short amount of time, an airborne assault could force open the door for air suppylied invasion.
Cant argue with you on the size of Taiwan, but I dont think it would be necessary to control the entire island.
Whilst the entire plan is rediculous, I admitt that freely
You are correct about not needing to capture the entire island. Most of the population is on the West coast. However, how does one do that? If the PLA land in the South and work their way north to Taipei, they will have a bugger of a time, and will allow much of Taiwanese Army to mobilise.
If they lend in the North, again they are caught between two forces.
If they lend every where they are likely to face beachhead pockets that can be reduced over time.
However let's say the Chinese lend, and occupy most of the urban areas and Taipei...they still have the REST of the island. Most of Taiwan is well vegetated mountain terrain. They could be in there for years hunting the Taiwanese (and I'm sure Taiwanese made plans for that also).
Yes surprise is the key, but I don't see any way of achieving it by conventional tactics.