The Current Conflict In Syria

[ngatimozart]

This is the video of the US vehicle running the russian vehicle off the road, as posted on Twitter: Mohammad on Twitter. The Task & Purpose story Video shows US military vehicle running a Russian military truck off the road in Syria, from which I lifted the video link. To me it looks like a competition about who's dick is bigger, more than anything else. However I do not know about convoy travelling procedures and if, as suggested by one tweeter, that the Russian vehicle shouldn't have been allowed to get between the 2 US vehicles, then clearly there has been a stuff up on the part of the US vehicle commanders.

 

[Feanor]

This is the video of the US vehicle running the russian vehicle off the road, as posted on Twitter: Mohammad on Twitter. The Task & Purpose story Video shows US military vehicle running a Russian military truck off the road in Syria, from which I lifted the video link. To me it looks like a competition about who's dick is bigger, more than anything else. However I do not know about convoy travelling procedures and if, as suggested by one tweeter, that the Russian vehicle shouldn't have been allowed to get between the 2 US vehicles, then clearly there has been a stuff up on the part of the US vehicle commanders.

It's possible the US patrol was trying to stop the Russian patrol from accessing an area or passing through a checkpoint but failed to do so initially and now was trying to intercept them. There has been an on-going pattern of the Russian and Syrians on the one hand and the US on the other trying to control areas and prevent movement of the other party through checkpoints and roadblocks.

 

[Feanor]

Information has emerged on the failed rebel attack on Nayrab. It appears that it was directly supported by attacking Turkish tanks, and they broke rebel lines at least at one point. Russian Su-24s were scrambled and hit both rebel light armor and Turkish tanks hitting between 2 and 4 M-60s, depending on the sources. The casualties the Turks have so far confirmed KIA were both tankers. It's possible the real numbers were higher. There is also fairly good quality footage of the MANPADS launch against Russian jets, and it looks like it could have been Turkish regular that fired it. The attack is over, beaten back fairly decisively, and with serious losses. Heavier Turkish missile systems were spotted entering Syria, likely a response to Syrian use of Smerch and Tochka systems.

This is a big change, as this is the first time we openly have Russian forces deliberately targeting Turkish military in such an open manner. While plausible deniability always exists (the tanks could of course have been handed over to the rebels, and there's no way to confirm "in the moment" who is inside), it seems that this means Turkish military assets actively engaging in combat against the SAA may now be openly attacked by Russian forces. This puts a new light on Russian jets flying along the Turkish border and raises questions about what would happen if Turkish GBAD showed up in Idlib, to protect friendly armor. The Turks are certainly less casualty-averse then some other militaries, but attacks like this are costly, and fruitless, against overwhelming enemy air power. And this is the second attack against Nayrab that's failed in this manner. It raises questions about how many bodies and destroyed vehicles the Turks are willing to suffer over a large-ish village.

On a side note, despite large numbers of Su-34s in service, it's interesting to note that the Su-24 workhorse is not going anywhere, even in combat operations. One would have thought that the focus would be on deploying as many newer aircraft to Syria as possible. Perhaps this is because they rotate units and personnel through Syria, using it as a training ground, and need to maintain at least some Su-24s there for pilots from bomber regiments still flying Su-24M/MRs.

Попытка наступления боевиков в провинции Идлиб, Сирия. 20.02.2020
Уничтожение турецкой техники под Найрабом
Пуск ракеты ПЗРК по Су-24М ВКС РФ над Идлибом с позиций джихадистов и с БЛА "Форпост"

In another landmark moment, the Aleppo airport has resumed accepting flights. With the Andan bulge taken, the city is now mostly out of range of the fighting, though of course this could change depending on how the escalation discussed above plays out.

Первый самолет за 8 лет

 

[ngatimozart]

It's possible the US patrol was trying to stop the Russian patrol from accessing an area or passing through a checkpoint but failed to do so initially and now was trying to intercept them. There has been an on-going pattern of the Russian and Syrians on the one hand and the US on the other trying to control areas and prevent movement of the other party through checkpoints and roadblocks.

To be honest the US shouldn't even have military forces on the ground in Syria. There are no real reasons for them to be there and the argument used to secure the oil facilities from Daesh I don't believe for one minute.

 

[Pentaprism]

An IL-96 from the Russian Special Flight Squadron is about to land in Sochi. VP on board ??

Wondering if some high ranking Turkish Folks are converging from the South?

Would make sense, these Countries are close to a War neither wants or can afford.

 

[ngatimozart]

An IL-96 from the Russian Special Flight Squadron is about to land in Sochi. VP on board ??

Wondering if some high ranking Turkish Folks are converging from the South?

Would make sense, these Countries are close to a War neither wants or can afford.

Or it could be Vlad wanting to do some skiing.

 

[Feanor]

Updates.

Russia has accused Turkey of failing to meet their obligations under the Sochi accords vis-a-vis the M4 and M5 highways. Mentioning both strongly suggests that Assad isn't done with his offensive.

Коротко по Сирии. 23.02.2020

The continued fighting has killed another Turkish soldier, due to tank fire, and the Turks retaliated with artillery strikes. It seems that the effectiveness of Turkish artillery work is poor given their continued strikes and yet relatively little damage done.

Турция обстреляла 21 цель в Сирии в ответ на гибель своего военнослужащего
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Turkish forces continue to pour into Idlib, including deployments of counter-battery radars, and air defense systems, though so far just fairly primitive SHORAD. Leo-2s have also shown up.

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https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1343145
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1341734

There info that a Turkish convoy entered Al-Barach but had to withdraw immediately due to air strikes.

https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1343830
https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/4557113.html

From the other side, a Russian artillery team was seen moving towards Idlib with 3 towed Msta-B guns (a battery is normally 6 guns), and an Su-25 was seen over the province. It raises some questions, given the presence of Turkish MANPADS Su-34s or Su-24s would make more sense.

https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1343421
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1343455

Despite the tensions, the Russian airforce continues to fly through Turkish airspace.

https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1341727

The captured T-90 remains unusually active.

https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1340716

A SAA tank or SP Arty hit by an ATGM while being transported.

https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1343065

More footage of US and Russian patrols in north-eastern Syria. Based on the vehicles, they may be some of the same forces involved in recent incidents.

https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1342524
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1343319
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1343851

 

[Pentaprism]

Or it could be Vlad wanting to do some skiing.

Yep looks like it was nothing more interesting than that.

 

[Feanor]

It looks like the Turkish-rebel counter offensive has retake Nayrab. However the VVS and SyAF continue pounding the rebel forces in and around Nayrab. Heavy MLRS and IRBMs continue working the area as well. It's interesting to see the SyAF in action (MiG-23s). The SAA has launched at least one counter-offensive but it has failed. A number of armored vehicles and munitions were captured in Nayrab.

In the meantime the SAA is pushing hard in southern Idlib. It looks very strange, where the rebels, backed by Turkey, have been beating themselves bloody against Syrian defenses in Nayrab, while the SAA takes ill-defended territory in the south. Even in their victory, having re-taken Nayrab, the rebels appear to be taking heavy losses from continued air and artillery strikes. Some Russian sources have begun speculating that a deal between Russia and Turkey was struck after all but just not publicized, and Erdogan is being given a chance to expend hard to control rebel forces against hardened defenses, as well as regain some lost ground to save face, while the SAA takes more territory down south. But it's just as possible that poor planning and poor organization on the part of the rebels is putting them in this position, and Russia-Syria are taking advantage.

In the meantime, a Tu-214R was sighted over Idlib, a very rare and advanced ELINT/SIGINT asset.

I guess time will tell how this all plays out, but the movement certainly looks odd. The Turks have brought more then enough forces into Idlib to have a chain of position in the south as well as the east, and yet....

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Ту-214Р ВКС РФ бортовой номер RF-64514 над Идлибом в районе Binnish
Идлибский "договорняк"
Коротко по Идлибу. 26.02.2020
Бои в Идлибе. 25.02.2020

Two more Turkish soldiers were reported KIA in Idlib.

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In the meantime Russo-Turkish joint patrols have resumed in the north.

https://dambiev.livejournal.com/1838151.html
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1345007

Some interesting footage of Russian MPs driving their armored cars into a rebel tunnel.

https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1346726

Some interesting footage of Russian special forces (unclear if SpN or SOC) attacking rebels at night.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/5668900.html

Russian fighters, likely SOC, near the frontline.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/5663861.html

EDIT: More photos of trophies taken by the rebels in Nayrab. This kind of speaks against the idea that this is part of an orchestrated deal. If the SAA intended to let the rebels retake Nayrab as part of an attrition-focused strategy, it makes little sense to leave them presents.

https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1346009

 

[Pentaprism]

Turkey is certainly desperate to stop Assad controlling the Highways. They have become involved quite directly in the fighting to take back Saraqeb and according to this report may have suffered quite a lot of Casualties in an Air Strike;

I am not sure why Turkey is pushing so hard here. The adage is my enemies enemy is my friend but they are basically having to get in bed with Al Queda who are Universally unloved to push back Assad. Unless Russia allows them entry into Syrian Airspace (unlikely) their Troops are highly exposed to strikes from Syrian and probably Russian Aircraft. They can just bomb their observations Posts if they want, they are sitting ducks and the Syrian Army is losing plenty of blood so the motivation is there.

If Turkey really wants to win a War against Assad they would need to take control of the Skies by Force but that risks serious Economic and possibly Military retaliation by the Russians.

The longer the War drags on the more costly it is for all concerned. Is there any point that Turkey and the West just gives up and lets Assad contol the Country? Or will there be perpetual conflict for another 10 years or more?

 

[Feanor]

Updates.

All bets are off. Turkey appears to be serious about pushing in Idlib, and the SAA is really losing ground. Saraqib has fallen again to the rebels, and the M-5 highway has been cut. Photos of interesting trophies keep cropping up, with Metis-M light ATGMs and RPO-A Shmel' thermobaric rocket launchers. Turkish artillery is positioning itself near Turkish LP/OPs and using them as safe zones. However the Turkish casualties are mounting, with an airstrike killing dozens, and wounding an even larger number (current numbers quoted vary with the higher end figures putting it at 39 KIA and 100+ wounded). There is unconfirmed information that Russia initially denied Turkish MEDEVAC helos from entering Syria airspace, leading to the first batches of wounded being trucked out. Likely in an effort to limit the spread of panic, twitter access has been restricted in Turkey. The Turks have also published footage of them destroying some Syrian artillery. There is also unconfirmed info that an SAA convoy moving on the M-5 was destroyed by Turkish artillery fire.

Turkey has also stated that all Syrian positions are now legitimate targets, and that if Russian interference crosses a certain threshold it may lead Turkey to close their airspace to Russia or even limit or close down Russian access to the straits.

In the meantime, the Al-Gab valley in southern Idlib is clear, and the rebel front line has collapsed, costing them serious ground. Government forces have taken trophies.

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Турецкий удар: армия понесла серьезные потери от авиации и артиллерии
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1350252
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1349239
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1349616
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/5671469.html
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1350562
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1350175
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1348533
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1350327
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1348462
https://andrei-bt.livejournal.com/1587628.html

Two Russian frigates in the Black Sea have left port, together. While this could be unrelated, it's not typical, and the timing is suspicious.

https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1349980

Also footage has surfaced of the incident where a MANPADS was launched at an Su-24M from a Turkish army position. This comes despite Turkish claims that they did not target Russian aircraft at any point.

https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/4574447.html

 

[ngatimozart]

Turkey is certainly desperate to stop Assad controlling the Highways. They have become involved quite directly in the fighting to take back Saraqeb and according to this report may have suffered quite a lot of Casualties in an Air Strike;

DO YOU HAVE ANOTHER SOURCE FOR THIS CLAIM THAT IS IN ENGLISH OR CAN BE TRANSLATED INTO ENGLISH? THAT VIDEO ON ITS OWN IS NOT CONSIDERED A RELIABLE SOURCE AND DOESN'T ALLOW FOR SUBTITLES IN OTHER LANGUAGES.

 

[Pentaprism]

DO YOU HAVE ANOTHER SOURCE FOR THIS CLAIM THAT IS IN ENGLISH OR CAN BE TRANSLATED INTO ENGLISH? THAT VIDEO ON ITS OWN IS NOT CONSIDERED A RELIABLE SOURCE AND DOESN'T ALLOW FOR SUBTITLES IN OTHER LANGUAGES.

Yeah there are better sources now. When the news was breaking that was the best I could find.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51667717

 

[Feanor]

Update.

There are reports that rebel fighters are retreating from Saraqib. Turkish UAVs continue to circle overhead, and air and artillery strikes against rebel targets are continuing. It's also not clear that all the fighters are retreating. Despite this, heavy fighting is continuing.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

The Turks are claiming they have destroyed 200 SAA targets, including 23 tanks, 23 artillery pieces, 2 air defense systems (a Buk and a Pantsyr) and 309 pro-Assad fighters. Interestingly enough, they've also damaged several helicopters at an airbase in Hama. Leaving aside the veracity of the figures, it's possible that the Turks consider that they've done the damage that allows them to save face and will now be open to de-escalating. It probably helps that they've been suffering casualties in Libya as well, and that they haven't gotten the level of NATO support that they want. A new meeting between Erdogan and Putin is scheduled for March 5-6th in Moscow.

SAA forces continue to advance in south Idlib, and are now nearing the M-4 highway.

Russia has also stated that Turkish military personnel were hit by SAA artillery strikes because they were embedded in rebel positions, and that the Syrian government has a right to strike terrorist targets in its own territory. I suspect that meeting or not, Russia will push a hard line on Erdogan.

Коротко по Идлибу. 28.02.2020

Коротко о развитии событий в Идлибе. 1. Под Саракибом сегодня продолжались бои САА при поддержке ВКС РФ с боевиками, которых поддерживали турецкая артиллерия и дроны. Существенных изменений на линии фронта нет. С обеих сторон отмечаются серьезные потери, причем военкоры указывают на высокую…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Несколько вертолётов ВВС Сирии поражено при турецком обстреле авибазы в Хаме

Реактивная система залпового огня ВС Турции ведёт огонь по объектам сирийской армии: https://vc.videos.livejournal.com/index/player?player=new&record_id=1378718 Министр обороны Турции Хулуси Акар лично отдаёт приказы о нанесении ударов по сирийским объектам в ночь с 27 на 28 февраля в ходе операции…

diana-mihailova.livejournal.com

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diana-mihailova.livejournal.com

Небензя заявил, что армия Сирии имеет полное право подавлять террористов в Идлибе

Постпред России при Совбезе ООН указал, что сирийской армии не могут запретить выполнять требования о бескомпромиссной борьбе с терроризмом на своей территории

tass.ru

Two Russian 11356 frigates have passed the Turkish straits and are now in the Mediterranean, along with another BDK.

"Адмирал Макаров" и "Адмирал Григорович" проходят проливы

Ракетные фрегаты Адмирал Макаров и Адмирал Григорович сегодня прошли Проливы и отправились к берегам Сирии.

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

VK.com | VK

vk.com

An interesting map of air and artillery strikes from both sides. I can't help but wonder about the sources.

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diana-mihailova.livejournal.com

There's also info that Turkish Hawk SAMs are on high alert near the Syrian border. Currently Russian aircraft are preventing the Turkish airforce from flying into Syrian airspace, but a SAM can very well fire into Syrian airspace from their side of the border.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Overall the situation remains tense. Despite some local success, the current battles have been a strategic defeat for Turkey and the rebels. Assad's offensive took a lot of ground, lost very little ground in a meatgrinder battle against Turkish and rebel forces, and the SAA used this battle as a distraction during which they seized large swathes of southern Idlib. Despite their success in Nayrab and Saraqib, the Turks have not come out ahead. On the plus side for Turkey the M-5 highway is still cut, but on the minus side it's unclear how significant this is. It could serve as a useful bargaining chip, but what would they bargain for?

I think its significant to note how little room for maneuver Erdogan has left due to the position he's put himself in.

 

[ngatimozart]

The Turks are claiming 29 soldiers KIA from an airstrike by the Syrian Arab Air Force on Thursday. They are now in urgent talks with the US and NATO Turkish officials speak with NATO and US leaders, hold emergency meeting after 29 soldiers killed in Syria airstrike, but I can't see how they can claim that they have been attacked and drag either the US or NATO into it. They have said that they no longer can support or sustain the refugees, so Erdogan is playing the refugee card again, threatening to unleash a tide of refugees on Europe. Looks like his chooks are coming home to roost and if Europe had any brains they'd call his bluff and quarantine Turkey.

 

[swerve]

Chickens coming home to roost indeed. Cosied up to Russia, I think to use it as a lever, & has suddenly woken up to geography & Russia's traditional interests & the clashes with Turkey's interests inherent in them, & is feeling very lonely & isolated.

Maybe he could get Patriot or SAMP/T & be let back in to F-35 - if he dumps Russia, maybe gives all the information Turkey has on Russian SAMS (thus probably closing off that route to buying arms in the future) as a sign of good faith, & gives assurances on behaviour. Maybe. But there'd obviously be trust issues.

 

[John Fedup]

Chickens coming home to roost indeed. Cosied up to Russia, I think to use it as a lever, & has suddenly woken up to geography & Russia's traditional interests & the clashes with Turkey's interests inherent in them, & is feeling very lonely & isolated.

Maybe he could get Patriot or SAMP/T & be let back in to F-35 - if he dumps Russia, maybe gives all the information Turkey has on Russian SAMS (thus probably closing off that route to buying arms in the future) as a sign of good faith, & gives assurances on behaviour. Maybe. But there'd obviously be trust issues.

Trust issues that are a bridge too far IMO. If Erdogan disappears then maybe.

 

[Feanor]

Chickens coming home to roost indeed. Cosied up to Russia, I think to use it as a lever, & has suddenly woken up to geography & Russia's traditional interests & the clashes with Turkey's interests inherent in them, & is feeling very lonely & isolated.

Maybe he could get Patriot or SAMP/T & be let back in to F-35 - if he dumps Russia, maybe gives all the information Turkey has on Russian SAMS (thus probably closing off that route to buying arms in the future) as a sign of good faith, & gives assurances on behaviour. Maybe. But there'd obviously be trust issues.

If he does that, he would eliminate all maneuver room he has altogether and be committed to a single course, with no real alternatives. I honestly think his best move was (emphasis on was, not sure it's still possible) to carry out his part of the Sochi accords, and deal with Al-Nusra and the other radicals. It would have meant a major Turkish military op, but by avoiding it he inevitably blundered into one. But he tried to sit on two chairs, and is now ass-on-the-floor. Now he's left with the bad options of crawling back to the US, and essentially giving up on his geopolitical ambitions, or taking a worse deal from Russia, and one that will again, inevitably, require him to do something about the radicals in Idlib.

 

[Pentaprism]

Yes Erdogan is sounding increasingly desperate. Apparently he asked Putin "what was his Business in Syria"? Pretty simple question for Putin to answer, Russia is a long standing Syrian Ally.

Erdoğan to meet Putin to discuss Idlib - Türkiye News

Turkey and Russia have agreed to reduce tensions on the ground in Syria's Idlib province while continuing military action there, the Russian foreign ministry said on Feb. 29 following several days of talks in Ankara.

www.hurriyetdailynews.com

But perhaps Erdogan should pose the same question to himself. He was one of the key Supporters of the move to get rid of Assad from the start. I'm not sure what sort of threat Assad posed to him, perhaps you Guys can enlighten me? Anyway he supported the Rebels from the start and provided much of their strength to wage a long war that has seemingly reaped little benefit for Turkey or anyone else. And he can hardly whinge about Syria bombing his Troops given they have basically invaded Syria. Frankly I am surprised they have not been hit again today.

The Syrian Air Defences seem no more effective again Turkish Drones than against Israeli Air Strikes. A lot (if not all) ordnance appears to have penetrated and Pantsir and BUK systems reportedly lost. For whatever reason the S-300 doesn't appear to be in play. Perhaps they are saving that in case Turkish F-16's cross the Border.

If Russia is planning to stay in Syria long term they need to consider beefing up their Client's Air Defences and probably their own. Second Air Base and another S400/S500 would be a good start for the Russians. More training and more modern Defence Systems obviously needed for the Syrians.

 

[Feanor]

Yes Erdogan is sounding increasingly desperate. Apparently he asked Putin "what was his Business in Syria"? Pretty simple question for Putin to answer, Russia is a long standing Syrian Ally.

Erdoğan to meet Putin to discuss Idlib - Türkiye News

Turkey and Russia have agreed to reduce tensions on the ground in Syria's Idlib province while continuing military action there, the Russian foreign ministry said on Feb. 29 following several days of talks in Ankara.

www.hurriyetdailynews.com

But perhaps Erdogan should pose the same question to himself. He was one of the key Supporters of the move to get rid of Assad from the start. I'm not sure what sort of threat Assad posed to him, perhaps you Guys can enlighten me? Anyway he supported the Rebels from the start and provided much of their strength to wage a long war that has seemingly reaped little benefit for Turkey or anyone else. And he can hardly whinge about Syria bombing his Troops given they have basically invaded Syria. Frankly I am surprised they have not been hit again today.

The Syrian Air Defences seem no more effective again Turkish Drones than against Israeli Air Strikes. A lot (if not all) ordnance appears to have penetrated and Pantsir and BUK systems reportedly lost. For whatever reason the S-300 doesn't appear to be in play. Perhaps they are saving that in case Turkish F-16's cross the Border.

If Russia is planning to stay in Syria long term they need to consider beefing up their Client's Air Defences and probably their own. Second Air Base and another S400/S500 would be a good start for the Russians. More training and more modern Defence Systems obviously needed for the Syrians.

I'm not sure if I buy Turkish claims regarding Syrian air defense failures. I haven't really had time to look into it but on at least some Russian sites they were claiming that the Turkish video of a Pantsyr getting hit is from a video game. They've shot down Israeli PGMs, but can't shoot down some Turkish UAVs? I can't help but wonder if the real issue is that the Syrians don't have much in the way of air defense in and around Idlib.