South China Sea thoughts?

[koxinga]

The Chinese wumao would have you know that Singapore, Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa, or India have a vested interest to maintain and operating in the rule based order of the West because (1) they are small states with little real power to dictate otherwise (2) they benefit from the system being lackeys of the West.

You are right that they have made this switch in their operating mode ever since XJP was able to consolidate this power. While the 9DL issue have long existed before him, the semblence of having basic restraint when positions conflict seems to have gone out of the window.

China doesn't really care how they are being viewed by the West or the claimants or the status of the Code of Conduct, what they care about is the on-the-ground reality.

 

[Ananda]

it doesn't help that Chinese students or expats in the West, with access to free media and seeing all freedoms of Western society continue to hold such views.

My Daughter now in Mel-U and her department (Economic & Commerce) nearly half attend by Asians with large part of Chinese Mainlanders. She assess them as bit reserve, but can be approachable even relative friendly after some time.

Something that she found out that reasonate with my experiences dealing with Chinese Mainlanders from my Graduate School days up to my current professionals interactions within my Industry. "Learn from West or anyone else on their science, business and technology, but never let them changes your Chinese values".

This quite ingrained and for that like it or not CCP quite successful on shaping their public perception. This already shape on multiple generations so far. China increasingly nationalistic, proud and increasingly fell West going to denied their place. They are trying to make other Asians move to their side, by shown how West wants Asia still bellow them

This will make everyone else in Asia, have no choices but watch carefully on how this is translate on China shaping their place. Reality in the ground between business and politics going to divide Asians on that.

 

[swerve]

...China increasingly nationalistic, proud and increasingly fell West going to denied their place. They are trying to make other Asians move to their side, by shown how West wants Asia still bellow them....

While China openly demonstrates every day that it wants the rest of Asia (& everywhere else) below China. Consider, for example, the actions of the Chinese consul in Manchester, or the recent statements of the Chinese ambassador to France. And the entire South China Sea proves it.

 

[Ananda]

While China openly demonstrates every day that it wants the rest of Asia (& everywhere else) below China.

Well what happened in the ground, Asian are divided on that. Even some question whether below China going to be worse then below Western? Those who are economically dependent with China, will going to swallow China superiority. Those who less dependent will try to balance it.

Reality average Asian also has 'distrust' for both West and China intentions. Thus will going to be carefully walk and balances between West (mostly US) and China.

 

[koxinga]

Ananda highlighted an important point in this discourse; with a few exceptions (e.g Singapore, Philippines to some degree), the West cannot assume that negativity towards China and Chinese actions in SCS translates to positives / adoption for Western models of governments or values either.

There are enough hang over anti-west feelings (post colonial, Cold War) with a dose of local authoritarian leanings, religious animosity / conservatism being exploited by local politicians to prevent these countries from being truly falling into "Western" camp. If anything else, this balancing act is seen as an exercise in geopolitical convenience.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

China once agains shows the world its willingness to spread friendship, freedom and respect for neighbours in the ASEAN region.

Philippines accuses China of firing water cannon at boats in South China Sea

Saturday's stand-off was near the disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, the Philippines says.

www.bbc.com

 

[koxinga]

China once agains shows the world its willingness to spread friendship, freedom and respect for neighbours in the ASEAN region.

Philippines accuses China of firing water cannon at boats in South China Sea

Saturday's stand-off was near the disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, the Philippines says.

www.bbc.com

While we have a regular string of condemnation from the US and other western allies, the silence from the rest of the ASEAN / claimants countries is deafening.

It is a case of (1) let's don't antagonize China publicly, and (b) we don't want to be seen as toeing the western line, even though privately, such actions are unlikely to be looked upon positively.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

While we have a regular string of condemnation from the US and other western allies, the silence from the rest of the ASEAN / claimants countries is deafening.

It is a case of (1) let's don't antagonize China publicly, and (b) we don't want to be seen as toeing the western line, even though privately, such actions are unlikely to be looked upon positively.

Same situation as with the suppression, the cultural and religious extermination of the Uyghurs, all countries which have a majority Islamic population stay quiet.

 

[Ananda]

(b) we don't want to be seen as toeing the western line, even though privately, such actions are unlikely to be looked upon positively.

The (b) more and more seems matter then (a). Many Asians outside ROK and Japan are simply want to stay out falling to increasing US/West vs China Geo competitions. However China actions also bring some of their neighbors closing rank. Vietnam and Indonesia clossing their EEZ dispute after decades of sometimes 'intense' martitime border interaction, shown that.

Even India that have no qualms on taking intense interaction with China, also still playing the balance. Especially within BRICS interaction.

 

[koxinga]

I get it in the context of Tibet, Taiwan, and the Uyghurs issue as these can be seen as internal matters of China.

But it is strange as active participants in SCS discussion / competing claimants in some cases, that ASEAN or individual member states have kept silent. While it does not have to be following Western commentary, it can always be to reiterate the need to respect UNCLOS, and engage in a peaceful manner even if one has disagreements/disputes.

ASEAN is still trying to push CUES, which does not deal with white/grey situations, and feels increasingly like a diplomatic trap to claim progress/peaceful intentions by China but what they do on the ground/sea is another matter.

 

[JohnWolf]

China once agains shows the world its willingness to spread friendship, freedom and respect for neighbours in the ASEAN region.

Philippines accuses China of firing water cannon at boats in South China Sea

Saturday's stand-off was near the disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, the Philippines says.

www.bbc.com

I think the P.I. Navy should ground a second ship at that reef, and this one would be idea;

Malvar-class corvette - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

)Forgive me for using Wiki)

Magat Salamat is listed as still available, but probably not for much longer. The LST that the supply boat from this article was headed for is in a severely decayed state and can't possibly last. The 40mm gun is rusted solid and the eight men aboard are just a symbolic deterrent.
It does need to be replaced by another ship that can be grounded on that reef in a similar way, expendable but also a cheap way to improve the Philippine position there.

This Frigate carries 1x76mm, 3 x 40mm, 4 x 20mm and 4 x 50.cal guns. Even if one of the 40mm and a 20mm gun are unserviceable (likely) and the 50s have been removed, this is still enough firepower to give a Chinese coast Guard ship something to think about. The ship's machinery probably has enough life left in it for a run up on a shoal, and if there is anything in the engines the ship has so much bunkerage that even if more than half the fuel is not available, that is still enough for months or even years of power for the ship's systems.

If the P.I. Navy can keep a secret, they can load the hull's interior with enough dry cement for a layer a meter or two think, and then flood those parts of the hull when the ship is grounded in place. Later, more concrete can be added, and taking it to the point where the Magat becomes something like a Fort Drum-clone is possible (but not really recommended).
The main purpose of the cement would be to ensure that the ship won't be shifted or damaged by a Typhoon.

The ship would have to retain it's radar. Since it is the last of it's kind there is no reason to strip it's systems for spare parts. In fact, anything that can be used in this class of ship should be loaded aboard it. The crew can be reduced to 30-40 .... but that is a lot more than is currently posted at the reef. There will be arguments against that, but I feel it would be worthwhile to have something that the Chinese can't neutralize with just a handful of Zodiac boats loaded with commandos.
A bully-power like the PLAN will huff & puff, but if you want to make a stand it is best to do it in a serious way.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

I think the P.I. Navy should ground a second ship at that reef, and this one would be idea;

Malvar-class corvette - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

)Forgive me for using Wiki)

Magat Salamat is listed as still available, but probably not for much longer. The LST that the supply boat from this article was headed for is in a severely decayed state and can't possibly last. The 40mm gun is rusted solid and the eight men aboard are just a symbolic deterrent.
It does need to be replaced by another ship that can be grounded on that reef in a similar way, expendable but also a cheap way to improve the Philippine position there.

This Frigate carries 1x76mm, 3 x 40mm, 4 x 20mm and 4 x 50.cal guns. Even if one of the 40mm and a 20mm gun are unserviceable (likely) and the 50s have been removed, this is still enough firepowere to give a Chinese coast Guard ship something to think about. The ship's machinery probably has enough life left in it for a run up on a shoal, and if there is any life left in the engines the ship has so much bunkerage that even if more than half the fuel is not available, that is still enough for months or even years of power for the ship's systems.

If the P.I. Navy can keep a secret, they can load the hull's interior with enough dry cement for a layer a meter or two think, and then flood those parts of the hull when the ship is grounded in place. Later, more concrete can be added and taking it to the point where the Magat becomes something like a Fort Drum clone is possible (but not really recommended).
The main purpose of the cement would be to ensure that the ship won't be shifted or damaged by a Typhoon.

The ship would have to retain it's radar. Since it is the last of it's kind there is no reason to strip it's systems for spare parts. In fact, anything that can be used in this class of ship should be loaded aboard it. The crew can be reduced to 30-40 .... but that is a lot more than is currently posted there. There will be arguments against that, but I feel it would be worthwhile to have something that the Chinese can't neutralize with just a handful of Zodiac boats loaded with commandos.
A bully-power like the PLAN will huff & puff, but if you want to make a stand it is best to do it in a serious way.

Yes, the Philippines has to expand its presence in their EEZ and also the replenishment to their outposts should be done by multiple vessels at once.

As a result of the recent tensions over the incident, the need for enhancing Philippine maritime capabilities in the West Philippine Sea has been brought to light.

That's why the announcement on 8 August, when Japan unveiled its latest round of Official Development Assistance (ODA) to the Philippines, came at the right moment. Within this package, a grant for a Satellite Data Communication System for the Philippine Coast Guard was included. This Satelite Communication (SATCOM) System is to be installed on the agency’s Parola and Teresa Magbanua Multi-Role Response Vessels (MRRV), which make up the bulk of the PCG’s fleet.

Philippines Looks to Increase Maritime Capabilities in the SCS - Naval News

In the aftermath of the latest SCS incident with China, the Philippines looks at militia and SATCOM to improve its maritime capabilities.

www.navalnews.com

 

[Ananda]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1700448705722339627

Concerning grounding ships on the reef by Philippines, this tweet from a Pinoy Journalist that following small flotilla of Pinoy Coast Guard, take photos on Chinese Coast Guards and "Fishing" Fleet that swarming around them. This Pinoy CG flotilla reported try to supply their marines that guarding those ships grounded in the reef.



Anyway try to enlarge one of Chinese Fishing ships. The cables and tower structures seems in line with fishing activities. Those cables from info seems related to hauling fishes or squids that being taken from fishing net trawls. However what's this on Water Canon on top of the masts ? Also for fishing ships really have quite heavy electronics instruments.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/08/23/ph-says-china-harassed-new-resupply-mission-for-brp-sierra-madre/

Still it is good for Pinoy continues to enlarge their CG fleets. This kind of sea 'diplomacies' really should be done by CG or civilian fishing fleet, rather then Navy. Something that Vietnam also done, even Malysia too. However not by some 'wise guys' on SEA largest archipelago. They are continue preference on building Naval Patrol Forces. Not something that many believe suitables on SCS sea diplomacy on this stage.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Here we see a short video of the Philippine Coast Guard cutting the lines and removing the floating barrier installed by Communist China to keep Philippine fishing boats away from Philippine 's EEZ.

The video is in Bahasa Indonesia, and below we have a longer video in English language, but there is a commercial between 1:50-3:00 and the host talks also about chinese love for toilet paper.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Philippine ships bumped by vessels In recent incidents, originating from a country once (and shortly) a best friend and close ally of the Philippines.

Philippine Ships Bumped by Chinese Vessels in Latest Incident - Naval News

Chinese Coast Guard vessels carried out "dangerous maneuvers" in the South China Sea Sunday and collided with a Philippine ship

www.navalnews.com

Watch: Boats collide in South China Sea's disputed waters

The Philippines armed forces said their video showed a Chinese vessel colliding with a Philippine ship.

www.bbc.com

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

There were 2 incidents in the West-Philippine Sea, and china claims that the Philippines are the ones who provocate with their violations and the one who were attacking the chinese vessels..

And her we can see that the chinese minister of foreign affairs warns the Philippines to act with caution.

 

[Ananda]

Vietnam on Record Pace for Spratly Island Construction in 2024, Report Says

Over the past six months, the country has reclaimed almost as much new land as it did in the previous two years combined, closing the gap with China’s “island fortresses.”

thediplomat.com

Vietnam following China example on building and enlarging the attol in SCS to be man made structures. Off course they are not going to be able to match Chinese pace on building things. However at least they are shown commitment to enlarge their own presences.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

The Philippines’ first BrahMos anti-ship missile base is taking shape at a naval installation on the coast of Western Luzon, facing the Spratly Sea.

Procured under the Philippine Navy’s Shore-Based Anti-Ship Missile Acquisition Project, the $375 million sale earmarked three batteries of BrahMos missiles and technical support for the system to the Philippine Marine Corps Coastal Defense Regiment.

Philippines Builds First BrahMos Anti-Ship Missile Base Facing South China Sea - Naval News

The Philippines' first BrahMos missile base is being constructed in Western Luzon, orienting the missiles into the disputed South China Sea.

www.navalnews.com

 

[koxinga]

Seems like it has reached a new level with direct physical assaults.

West Philippine Sea: Filipino sailors fought armed CCGs ‘with bare hands’

Philippine Navy personnel assigned in the West Philippine Sea resupply mission figured in a fight with bolo-wielding China coast guard using their “bare hands.”

www.inquirer.net

 

[Ananda]

What happened between Chinese Coast Guard and Philippines Navy do shown increasing skirmish level. However it's still below with what happened between China and Vietnam forces years ago.

The South China Sea Dog that Hasn’t Barked … Yet - War on the Rocks

Vietnam has been busy. In recent months, it has exponentially expanded the size of several features it controls in the Spratly Islands, including Barque

warontherocks.com

In ASEAN thread, I ask similar speculation why China this days are more confrontational with Philippines only, and much reduce with other neighbors. Considering Vietnam and even Malaysia have bigger military presences in SCS then Pinoy.

Seems this is also been raise speculation by some media pundits as examples on the article above. The article above compare more to Vietnam which basically has biggest military presences in SCS outside PLA. They are also building and enlarging their facilities in SCS much like Chinese done. However so far China seems take no action whatsoever to prevent that.

Yes, perhaps China wants to avoid having skirmish more than one neighbor at a time. However the article studies that I have put in ASEAN thread also implies potential to one point. The point that article above also put. Philippines is the only ASEAN claimant in SCS that openly put options on bring external forces to back them, in this sense US.

China already say several times that they prefer to negotiate bilaterally. They even avoid ASEAN as a Group to China negotiations on rule of conducts in SCS. So could this skirmish between China and Philippines, is basically China challenges to US ? China single out Philippines against other neighbors because that factor?

Something to ponder about.