South China Sea thoughts?

[weaponwh]

Care to provide sources for the above bolded claim? The earliest concrete claim that I can find from China to the islands in and waters of the SCS dates from just before World War II. During the Qing dynasty (~1644 to ~1912) of Imperial China, it seems as though the Empire ceased to claim jurisdiction over the Spratlys sometime before 1724, despite having those islands and other discovered features included on maps and charts.

Further, the Cairo Declaration (1943) stipulated that Japan had to return to China territories it had stolen from China, but the island chains in the SCS were not included and AFAIK, Japan never directly seized them from China or anyone else, as the islands did not have permanent inhabitants at the time.

i'm not talking about imperial china, i'm talking about modern china. as far as china/Vietnam/ROC or others using imperial history to claim the area, its disputable, and its too far back to know the whole truth.

 

[weaponwh]

ASEAN has realised this years ago ..... The various countries that comprise ASEAN have long ago realised that the have to maintain a fine balancing act in handling relations between China and the U.S. A good example is Malaysia. It is China's largest trading partner within ASEAN and has gone out of its way to maintain good relations with China; yet it regularly conducts bilateral military exercises and exchanges with the U.S. In fact, it trains with the U.S. more than it does compared to any other foreign country.



By saying something but doing something else.

How China deals with the various claimants depends on that claimant's relationship with China, its policy with regards to over lapping claims and its relationship with outside powers ; i.e. has it publicly said anything negative about China's actions in the South China Sea, do high level political figures visit areas claimed by China, is it a U.S. ally, etc? China often talks about resolving the issue peacefully, about how only direct talks between the claimants can ultimately resolve the issue and [but still maintains the area is indisputably a part of China, laying down a caveat before negotiations can even begin] and how the various claimant should not undertake actions that can raise tensions; yet Chinese ships still regularly intrude in areas claimed by others, China has embarked on massive building spree in the reefs it controls and has significantly increased its military presence in the area. What it says and what it does can be two completely different things .... Others smaller countries are expected to toe the line.

i'm pretty sure other ship such as Vietnam also had incident with China in the disputed area. There is not that many nation do what they said 100%. as for military presence, yes other nation done the same, the only difference is due to china massive industry it can build bigger.

 

[STURM]

There is a major difference. Unlike Chinese ships which regularly intrude in areas claimed by Vietnam, Brunei, the Philippines, Malaysia and Taiwan; ships from the other claimants by and large do not intrude into areas where the Chinese have a presence. In many instances Chinese ships not only refuse to leave but they stay. On a number of occasions it has been found that Chinese ships are there to divert the attention of others to enable Chinese trawlers to operate undisturbed.

as for military presence, yes other nation done the same, the only difference is due to china massive industry it can build bigger.

China has adopted an arrogance of power : smaller countries are expected to toe the line and accept what is offered to them. 'China is a big country and other countries are small countries, and that's just a fact' : this came from Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi, to Singapore's Foreign Minister during the ASEAN Ministers Conference in 2010. At the 13th Shangri-La Dialogue the People's Liberation Army's Deputy Chief of the General Staff, Lieutenant General Wang Guanzhong, was asked by Jane's Defence Weekly Malaysia Correspondent, Dzirhan Mahadzir, 'General Wang, you mentioned China doesn't undertake provocative action. I was wondering, then why is it always my friends in the Royal Malaysian Navy are scrambling their ships to intercept yours in our waters ? General Wang had earlier spoke of China discovering the South China Sea during the Han Dynasty, of the nine dash line being declared 46 years before the UNCLOS was ratified and of the U.S. not having ratified UNCLOS yet.

 

[weaponwh]

View attachment 46214 There is a major difference. Unlike Chinese ships which regularly intrude in areas claimed by Vietnam, Brunei, the Philippines, Malaysia and Taiwan; ships from the other claimants by and large do not intrude into areas where the Chinese have a presence. In many instances Chinese ships not only refuse to leave but they stay. On a number of occasions it has been found that Chinese ships are there to divert the attention of others to enable Chinese trawlers to operate undisturbed.



China has adopted an arrogance of power : smaller countries are expected to toe the line and accept what is offered to them. 'China is a big country and other countries are small countries, and that's just a fact' : this came from Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi, to Singapore's Foreign Minister during the ASEAN Ministers Conference in 2010. At the 13th Shangri-La Dialogue the People's Liberation Army's Deputy Chief of the General Staff, Lieutenant General Wang Guanzhong, was asked by Jane's Defence Weekly Malaysia Correspondent, Dzirhan Mahadzir, 'General Wang, you mentioned China doesn't undertake provocative action. I was wondering, then why is it always my friends in the Royal Malaysian Navy are scrambling their ships to intercept yours in our waters ? General Wang had earlier spoke of China discovering the South China Sea during the Han Dynasty, of the nine dash line being declared 46 years before the UNCLOS was ratified and of the U.S. not having ratified UNCLOS yet.

a lot time official are arrogant this is true for other Major nation such as US/Russia, individual say dumb things, how many dumb/arrogant things Trump said. Doesn't mean china official policy will screw them over, unless the other side is in a bad relation with China(Vietnam also took Philippine island as well before). China still has to worry about US involvement, so it wont push ASEAN too far. Malaysian scramble to intercept Chinese ship, its same as Chinese ship scramble to meet US ship/plane in ScS. Its "CLAIMED" area not actual territory yet. If FON is applied to China claim, then it also applied to Malasia/Vietnam/ROC claim as well.

 

[Todjaeger]

i'm not talking about imperial china, i'm talking about modern china. as far as china/Vietnam/ROC or others using imperial history to claim the area, its disputable, and its too far back to know the whole truth.

If one is going to only refer to the "modern" claims and not the claims based on historical claims, then one should not state that "China always claim the ScS, it never change" because that provides no indication that one is only referring to the modern claims.

differ as how? china always claim the ScS, it never change, and their action in par with their words.

If one were to only use the modern claims, then British and German claims could also enter the picture, since those two nations conducted some of the first accurate surveys of various islands in the SCS in the modern era. Islands which could be the Spratly and/or Paracel Islands appear on historical charts and maps from China and Vietnam, though some of the information on the charts/maps makes their accuracy questionable.

Claims based solely off things from the modern era become even more problematic for China because when France established outposts on behalf of what is now Vietnam, China had no outposts or settlements established, and instead some of the islands claimed by France had Chinese fishermen visiting, not unlike how fishermen from other nations bordered by the SCS would visit some of the islands.

 

[STURM]

Malaysian scramble to intercept Chinese ship, its same as Chinese ship scramble to meet US ship/plane in ScS. Its "CLAIMED" area not actual territory ye.

The profound difference is that Malaysian ships are not venturing into areas already occupied by China. It is Chinese ships that routinely venture into areas already occupied by others. By any definition this can be described as 'provocative'. It is Chinese ships that harasse trawlers belonging to other countries [even when they stay well away from Chinese occupied areas] and in the case the Philippines; actually prevents any attempt at resuppling Filipino troops on the Sierra Madre.

Its "CLAIMED" area not actual territory yet.

Areas claimed and occupied by the 6 claimants are seen by the respective claimants as their sovereign territory; irrespective of whether globally recognised or not. The main difference is that China claims almost the whole area and brands any party which disputes this as reactionary elements which are infringing on Chinese territory. Yes, with the exception of Brunei, all the claimants have stationed troops on their respective reefs but it is China which has militarised the area to an extent not previously done by anyone and it is China which claims a monopoly on what's right or not.

If FON is applied to China claim, then it also applied to Malasia/Vietnam/ROC claim as well.

Yes it does and nobody here said otherwise. I have yet to hear or Malaysia, Vietnam or Brunei protesting every time a USN ship conducts a FON in close proximity to areas these countries claim.

 

[ngatimozart]

a lot time official are arrogant this is true for other Major nation such as US/Russia, individual say dumb things, how many dumb/arrogant things Trump said. Doesn't mean china official policy will screw them over, unless the other side is in a bad relation with China(Vietnam also took Philippine island as well before). China still has to worry about US involvement, so it wont push ASEAN too far. Malaysian scramble to intercept Chinese ship, its same as Chinese ship scramble to meet US ship/plane in ScS. Its "CLAIMED" area not actual territory yet. If FON is applied to China claim, then it also applied to Malasia/Vietnam/ROC claim as well.

I would have to agree with other posters and China is not the aggrieved party in this dispute and in fact I will argue that it is the aggressive party in this issue, actively claiming and taking what is not legally its property, by bullying and threats. It is a signatory to the UNCLOS and as such agreed to be bound by that agreement. It has chosen to completely ignore the agreement and when taken to arbitration by the Philippines, the Tribunal found that the Chinese did not have a legal case for it's nine dashed line claim. Those details, especially the UNCLOS text and Tribunal findings can be found online and are accurate and reputable sources.

 

[weaponwh]

I would have to agree with other posters and China is not the aggrieved party in this dispute and in fact I will argue that it is the aggressive party in this issue, actively claiming and taking what is not legally its property, by bullying and threats. It is a signatory to the UNCLOS and as such agreed to be bound by that agreement. It has chosen to completely ignore the agreement and when taken to arbitration by the Philippines, the Tribunal found that the Chinese did not have a legal case for it's nine dashed line claim. Those details, especially the UNCLOS text and Tribunal findings can be found online and are accurate and reputable sources.

and I would agree china use its resource to claim/build in the region more so then other party. But is pretty much due to fact they have resource/power to push their own interest.
US is not signatory of UNCLOS but use its rule to push for its own interest. US unilaterally withdrawn iran deal despite plead from ally, despite IRAN follow the rule in the deal, despite its from UN and everyone agree upon.
Which party doesn't actively claiming in ScS, who are consider legally?, Vietnam, malasia, roc? they all have huge claim.

several years back Vietnam fisherman intrude Indonesia claimed water got shot at, Chinese fisherman was also shot by Indonesia before, now replace Indonesia with china you gonna see headline all over the world on this. philippines duterte kill thousands of his own people in his drug war, Vietnam also intrude and took Philippine island before. Now if ANY of these country has the resource/power of China, do you think they would do differently than China? The fact is major/super power use their resource to push their own interest and agenda. Russia/crimea/Ukraine/syria, US/Iraq/Iran/Nicaragua 80s (if I remember correctly international court also in favor of Nicaragua, yet did US comply to it?), etc etc, China/Taiwan/ScS, India/Neapl political involvement etc.

ASEAN been a weaker player, has to balance relationship between China and US. So if they can get some good deal from either china or US, all the better for them. India is doing the same by not fully involved in indo-pacific strategy, try to get deal from both side.

 

[ngatimozart]

and I would agree china use its resource to claim/build in the region more so then other party. But is pretty much due to fact they have resource/power to push their own interest.
US is not signatory of UNCLOS but use its rule to push for its own interest. US unilaterally withdrawn iran deal despite plead from ally, despite IRAN follow the rule in the deal, despite its from UN and everyone agree upon.
Which party doesn't actively claiming in ScS, who are consider legally?, Vietnam, malasia, roc? they all have huge claim.

several years back Vietnam fisherman intrude Indonesia claimed water got shot at, Chinese fisherman was also shot by Indonesia before, now replace Indonesia with china you gonna see headline all over the world on this. philippines duterte kill thousands of his own people in his drug war, Vietnam also intrude and took Philippine island before. Now if ANY of these country has the resource/power of China, do you think they would do differently than China? The fact is major/super power use their resource to push their own interest and agenda. Russia/crimea/Ukraine/syria, US/Iraq/Iran/Nicaragua 80s (if I remember correctly international court also in favor of Nicaragua, yet did US comply to it?), etc etc, China/Taiwan/ScS, India/Neapl political involvement etc.

ASEAN been a weaker player, has to balance relationship between China and US. So if they can get some good deal from either china or US, all the better for them. India is doing the same by not fully involved in indo-pacific strategy, try to get deal from both side.

But the ASEAN countries are not claiming areas that are obviously well outside their EEZ by any stretch of the imagination. Those fishing boats that the Indonesians shot at, bet you they refused to stop when asked to and did a runner, so don't quote incidents out of context. Some of us on here are quite well versed in these matters, and have even participated in arresting foreign fishing vessels (FFV) at sea so know what happens. Whilst procedures vary from country to country, generally when a FFV does a runner and refuses to stop shooting at them is a result.

We like a robust discussion but please note that we expect claims and arguments to be supported by facts, not by claims originating from the political propaganda machines of some countries governments attempting to push one side an issue, regardless of the pertinent verifiable facts that abound and are freely available outside those countries jurisdiction and control.

 

[Stampede]

History and claims are all very Important.
Its great China is having a chat with ASEAN.
Its good that there is some nice Chinese gestures to the neighbourhood.

The above is all very important but in the end, the only thing that matters is the massive change in capability of the Chinese armed forces since 2000 to now and what is projected in the years ahead.
This is a tsunami of change in a very short time.

The investment in quality of equipment,staff structure ,Capital, and the modernisation of every bit of widget painted green grey and blue and up to and including the big things that float transit the land and fly is startling.

Xi Jinping will be emboldened with a defence force that has no peer in the region and can stare down and call the bluff of a powerful adversary across the Pacific.

Claims of treaty's and history will not mean much when you have a big stick.

The world in the 2030's

Regards S

 

[ngatimozart]

History and claims are all very Important.
Its great China is having a chat with ASEAN.
Its good that there is some nice Chinese gestures to the neighbourhood.

There is an old saying from ancient times, most likely from around the time of just after the Trojan war; "beware of Greeks bearing gifts".

The above is all very important but in the end, the only thing that matters is the massive change in capability of the Chinese armed forces since 2000 to now and what is projected in the years ahead.
This is a tsunami of change in a very short time.

The investment in quality of equipment,staff structure ,Capital, and the modernisation of every bit of widget painted green grey and blue and up to and including the big things that float transit the land and fly is startling.

Xi Jinping will be emboldened with a defence force that has no peer in the region and can stare down and call the bluff of a powerful adversary across the Pacific.

Ah yes Comrade Xi will be very emboldened and now that Trump not only has enacted more tariffs on Chinese imports in the the US, but has also accused China of interfering in the upcoming US mid term elections. And to add insult to injury, he did this in person at the UN Security Council as President of the Council. That accusation will not go down well in Beijing, whether it's true or not and considering how the accusation was made, they will see it as a massive loss of face. How Xi will really react to this accusation remains to be seen. The Chinese Foreign Minister has denied the accusation stating the they do not meddle in another country's internal affairs, but that's a standard stock answer. The real answer is yet to come.

Claims of treaty's and history will not mean much when you have a big stick.

The world in the 2030's

Regards S

Unfortunately you are correct there S and the old adage of speaking softly whilst wielding a big stick comes to mind. However methinks that the gentlemen and gentlewomen in Beijing, whilst speaking softly, are also speaking out of both sides of their collective mouths at the same time, or as Chief Sitting Bull would phrase it, speaking with forked tongue.

There is an Chinese old curse that says: "may you live in interesting times". Well we may not have to wait until the 2030's for that to occur. I would think that the way things are going, the 2020's maybe that time.

 

[STURM]

most likely from around the time of just after the Trojan war; "beware of Greeks bearing gifts".

Sorry for getting off topic but that's also the title of another excellent Bernie Gunther [Philip Kerr] novel :]

Review | The late Philip Kerr’s left behind a colorful new novel. It won’t be his last.

Its great China is having a chat with ASEAN.

It is but ASEAN and China have been talking for a long time. I'm still sceptical however. The Chinese rarely make any concessions unless they get something back in return. They know ASEAN is divided on the issue, as are the other 5 claimants; one of which Taiwan, is not part of ASEAN. Whether its China or anyone else; words have to be matched with deeds. Only time will tell.

 

[weaponwh]

But the ASEAN countries are not claiming areas that are obviously well outside their EEZ by any stretch of the imagination. Those fishing boats that the Indonesians shot at, bet you they refused to stop when asked to and did a runner, so don't quote incidents out of context. Some of us on here are quite well versed in these matters, and have even participated in arresting foreign fishing vessels (FFV) at sea so know what happens. Whilst procedures vary from country to country, generally when a FFV does a runner and refuses to stop shooting at them is a result.

We like a robust discussion but please note that we expect claims and arguments to be supported by facts, not by claims originating from the political propaganda machines of some countries governments attempting to push one side an issue, regardless of the pertinent verifiable facts that abound and are freely available outside those countries jurisdiction and control.

could you refer me to a source on Vietnam is the more aggressive actor in Indonesian shooting, Vietnam intrude China, Malaysia and other countries claimed EEZ as well, at least I haven't heard them got shot at, but I do heard more about Indonesian shooting then say Malaysia. Indonesian been know to be more aggressive in these fishing dispute compare to Malaysia etc.

Looking at the various claimed map

Google Image Result for https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/de/South_China_Sea_claims_map.jpg/420px-South_China_Sea_claims_map.jpg

which one countries EEZ is legal, which is not? Vietnam claim is what 5 time the size of their country? what about Brunei? PRC/ROC has the same claim. Malaysia seem more conservative, but still extend far into ScS compare to the size of their country.


as far as china intervene in 11/6 election come on, really?

 

[weaponwh]

Sorry for getting off topic but that's also the title of another excellent Bernie Gunther [Philip Kerr] novel :]

Review | The late Philip Kerr’s left behind a colorful new novel. It won’t be his last.



It is but ASEAN and China have been talking for a long time. I'm still sceptical however. The Chinese rarely make any concessions unless they get something back in return. They know ASEAN is divided on the issue, as are the other 5 claimants; one of which Taiwan, is not part of ASEAN. Whether its China or anyone else; words have to be matched with deeds. Only time will tell.

China know pushing ASEAN too hard, ASEAN will be closer to US, more base access, more logistic support, etc etc, and US would be happy to do it too. I think china realize it has been too aggressive before 2012, which allow other non-claimed party to get involved. It probably try to find a solution to solve that, such as using more trade/investment as incentive.

 

[ngatimozart]

could you refer me to a source on Vietnam is the more aggressive actor in Indonesian shooting, Vietnam intrude China, Malaysia and other countries claimed EEZ as well, at least I haven't heard them got shot at, but I do heard more about Indonesian shooting then say Malaysia. Indonesian been know to be more aggressive in these fishing dispute compare to Malaysia etc.

Looking at the various claimed map

Google Image Result for https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/de/South_China_Sea_claims_map.jpg/420px-South_China_Sea_claims_map.jpg

which one countries EEZ is legal, which is not? Vietnam claim is what 5 time the size of their country? what about Brunei? PRC/ROC has the same claim. Malaysia seem more conservative, but still extend far into ScS compare to the size of their country.


as far as china intervene in 11/6 election come on, really?

I very strongly suggest that you go and do some research. Do you actually know the criteria of what and EEZ is and how an EEZ is determined? Other posters have taken time to try and explain things to you, but it appears that the message hasn't gotten through. The Moderators have been watching your posting style for a while and it has not been up to the standard that is expected of posters on this Forum. Either the quality your posts is increased or the Moderators will actively consider sanctions against you. The ball is in your court.

 

[STURM]

Very interesting discussion in this video. Both speakers [one a Chinese expert] have different opinions as to who's to blame for the increasing militarisation in the area. The Chinese speaker also questions the need for China to engage with ASEAN collectively on the Spratlys issue and why the US has to deploy carriers thousands of miles away from its shores. What comes to my mind is how the U.S. would react if some point in the future, a Chinese carrier group conducts exercises, in international waters, off the U.S. West coast?].

China condemns US for South China Sea operation

Meanwhile, China has - predictably - condemned a recent USN FON. Remains to be seen what China will do in the future in response to USN FON operations.

'The US side repeatedly sends military ships without permission into seas close to South China Seas islands, seriously threatening China's sovereignty and security, seriously damaging Sino-US military ties, and seriously harming regional peace and stability," the ministry said.'

'China's foreign ministry said it strongly urged the United States to stop such "provocative" actions and to "immediately correct its mistakes.

 

[weaponwh]

I very strongly suggest that you go and do some research. Do you actually know the criteria of what and EEZ is and how an EEZ is determined? Other posters have taken time to try and explain things to you, but it appears that the message hasn't gotten through. The Moderators have been watching your posting style for a while and it has not been up to the standard that is expected of posters on this Forum. Either the quality your posts is increased or the Moderators will actively consider sanctions against you. The ball is in your court.

yes I do read and know about EEZ, maybe not every detail. I also read about UNCLOS before, and not claim to be an expert on it.

An Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) is a concept adopted at the Third United Nations Conference on the Law of the Sea (1982), whereby a coastal State assumes jurisdiction over the exploration and exploitation of marine resources in its adjacent section of the continental shelf, taken to be a band extending 200 miles from the shore.

what I'm curious is Vietnam and such meet the criteria define in the EEZ. Furthermore, if certain island that's not man-made, what that also constitute EEZ(from what I read this is also true, so which nation get the priority for overlapping, as I understand it will base on state negotiation). which is why i'm asking which of these nation claims constitute EEZ, since i'm not an expert in each nations geography and such. Yes people tell me about EEZ, but its nothing I can't find online about EEZ definition and I know about EEZ long time ago before this post. but how that apply to individual case such as Vietnam/Malaysia etc? there are a lot details in ScS dispute, bid hard to find.

 

[weegee]

I posted this on the USN page but it also relates to this one too.

Scary to see how close these large vessels came to each other! Doesn't leave much wiggle room for mistakes and an incident to occur.
The images from the Business Insider show just how close it was:
These incredible photos show how close a Chinese warship came to colliding with a US destroyer during a tense standoff in the South China Sea

 

[ngatimozart]

I posted this on the USN page but it also relates to this one too.

Scary to see how close these large vessels came to each other! Doesn't leave much wiggle room for mistakes and an incident to occur.
The images from the Business Insider show just how close it was:
These incredible photos show how close a Chinese warship came to colliding with a US destroyer during a tense standoff in the South China Sea

Yes it's bullying and very poor seamanship by the CO of the PLAN DDG. If the shoe was on the other foot, imagine the bellicose screaming that would be emanating from Beijing. That was a direct act of provocation by the PLAN.

 

[ngatimozart]

yes I do read and know about EEZ, maybe not every detail. I also read about UNCLOS before, and not claim to be an expert on it.

what I'm curious is Vietnam and such meet the criteria define in the EEZ. Furthermore, if certain island that's not man-made, what that also constitute EEZ(from what I read this is also true, so which nation get the priority for overlapping, as I understand it will base on state negotiation). which is why i'm asking which of these nation claims constitute EEZ, since i'm not an expert in each nations geography and such. Yes people tell me about EEZ, but its nothing I can't find online about EEZ definition and I know about EEZ long time ago before this post. but how that apply to individual case such as Vietnam/Malaysia etc? there are a lot details in ScS dispute, bid hard to find.

What I am curious about is your motives for being a member of this fora, posting here and the reasoning behind your posts and motives. I have my suspicions and I think that you are far more intelligent than you let on. All is not what it seems and methinks that you are playing a deep and maybe devious game. We shall see.