Russian Navy Discussions and Updates

RoyZZConnor

Member
Wikipedia isn't a valid reliable source. A peace treaty is not symbolic at all. It is a legal document in international law which stipulates that the participating parties have agreed to ended the state of wwar that has existed between them.

You have made multiple posts in the last 24 hours and have repeatedly broken therules of the Forum. Two Moderators have asked you to correct your mistakes AND to READ THE RULES. It is obvious that you have failed to take that advice. Any further transgressions by you will result in possible sanctions against you by the Moderator team. This is your second warning. Two in a single arvo. That doesn't bode well for your continued future on here.
I have included a source in my post.


@RoyZZConnor Don't argue semantics. Your original source in the post was Wikipedia. Before you make any more posts READ THE RULES. This is not a request. It is a Moderator direction that is to be complied with.

Ngatimozart
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I agree that Russian Ministry of Defense can handle Japanese navy without relying on warships. This close to their shores, they are able to engage any navy with aircraft-launched missiles.
Coordinating simultaneous squadron and regiment sized airstrikes is very hard. When is the last time Russia has practiced for maritime strike on this scale? Even the Soviets, during exercises, often screwed it up. But that's why they were practicing. The current AVMF doesn't even operate any long range aircraft. They have Su-24s, Su-27s, and MiG-31s, and are phasing out the first two for the Su-30SM which is a great candidate to carry the Oniks but... doesn't. For some reason. The Su-34 has been spotted carrying X-35s and there's no reason the AVMF can't get them, but again it simply hasn't done so. Throw in the lack of modern MPA that I keep bringing up for a reason, and the lack of maritime training for regular VVS units.... I'm not sold. When I see the AVMF or VVS practicing squadron sized X-35 or Oniks strikes during exercises, even simulated strikes, may change my point of view.
 

SolarWind

Active Member
Coordinating simultaneous squadron and regiment sized airstrikes is very hard. When is the last time Russia has practiced for maritime strike on this scale? Even the Soviets, during exercises, often screwed it up. But that's why they were practicing. The current AVMF doesn't even operate any long range aircraft. They have Su-24s, Su-27s, and MiG-31s, and are phasing out the first two for the Su-30SM which is a great candidate to carry the Oniks but... doesn't. For some reason. The Su-34 has been spotted carrying X-35s and there's no reason the AVMF can't get them, but again it simply hasn't done so. Throw in the lack of modern MPA that I keep bringing up for a reason, and the lack of maritime training for regular VVS units.... I'm not sold. When I see the AVMF or VVS practicing squadron sized X-35 or Oniks strikes during exercises, even simulated strikes, may change my point of view.
Don't they operate a number of Mig-31Ks with plans to fit Tu-22Ms with Kinzhals as well? Perhaps the lack of coordination exercises is due to not considering such a scenario possible in the near term. I am under the impression that military aircraft are much easier for Russians to make and operate than warships. Am I wrong on this?
 

RoyZZConnor

Member
Don't they operate a number of Mig-31Ks with plans to fit Tu-22Ms with Kinzhals as well? Perhaps the lack of coordination exercises is due to not considering such a scenario possible in the near term. I am under the impression that military aircraft are much easier for Russians to make and operate than warships. Am I wrong on this?
Planes are certainly easier to make than ships. Typically on a ratio of about 10 to 1. Also, it depends on US behavior in the case of Japanese attack on Southern Kurils. Japanese warships require components imported from US and it is likely US will halt such deliveries in such a scenario the way France halted Exocet delivery to Argentina after Argentina attacked Falklands thus with only 4 Exocet missiles at their disposal Argentina was not able to retain Falklands after easily taking them.
 

RoyZZConnor

Member
Coordinating simultaneous squadron and regiment sized airstrikes is very hard. When is the last time Russia has practiced for maritime strike on this scale? Even the Soviets, during exercises, often screwed it up. But that's why they were practicing. The current AVMF doesn't even operate any long range aircraft. They have Su-24s, Su-27s, and MiG-31s, and are phasing out the first two for the Su-30SM which is a great candidate to carry the Oniks but... doesn't. For some reason. The Su-34 has been spotted carrying X-35s and there's no reason the AVMF can't get them, but again it simply hasn't done so. Throw in the lack of modern MPA that I keep bringing up for a reason, and the lack of maritime training for regular VVS units.... I'm not sold. When I see the AVMF or VVS practicing squadron sized X-35 or Oniks strikes during exercises, even simulated strikes, may change my point of view.
In the event of South Kurils war Tu-22M3M remains the most potent anti ship jet. Whether operated by air force or navy is not that important as long as it sinks ships.

I'm fairly certain Pacific fleet has Tu-22M3. Are you sure they don't have that?

Mod edit: Merged two distinct responses to the same post, one of which was a one-liner post. Also Banned the offender for a week to give them a chance to read the Forum Rules and understand that compliance isn't optional.
-Preceptor
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
In the event of South Kurils war Tu-22M3M remains the most potent anti ship jet. Whether operated by air force or navy is not that important as long as it sinks ships.

I'm fairly certain Pacific fleet has Tu-22M3. Are you sure they don't have that?
You literally ignored my post where I explained quite clearly what the issue is - maritime strike operations require training. The bigger your proposed coordinated strike, the more training it requires to ensure simultaneous time on target. A ship can launch multiple AShMs in more or less a single volley. But an entire squadron or even regiment of jets is an entirely different thing. The AVMF and the VVS currently have not been training for this, at least as far as I can tell. And yes it matters which service they're in. How much maritime strike or any maritime operations at all does the VVS do? Do they work on joint training with Il-38Ns, or Tu-142s, or surface warships? Hell, does the AVMF even do this? And to what extent?

And no, the AVMF has no Tu-22s. They're all in long range aviation. While we're at it, the Tu-22M3M exists as a single aircraft. When they're in service in some numbers, and when the next-gen AShM (or at least the Kh-32) for them is also in service, we can talk. Until then, unless you're suggesting they will drop neat little lines of FAB-250s on the Japanese navy, they're hardly relevant. Or do you think some expired Kh-22s will still have life left in them and provide that "most potent anti ship" capability you're referring to?

For the record, I think the most potent AShM that Russian aircraft are prepared to use right now is the Kinzhal, provided they can get targeting for it. It's actually relatively difficult to intercept, and assuming they can pull off a volley launch in the middle of some other major engagement (as opposed to a separate strike) given their range, and that enemy airspace control will already be busy, they have a good chance of doing some serious damage. But I'm far from sold that 1) Russia has enough of them ready to go 2) targeting will be forthcoming 3) the VVS is ready for a volley-fire of the type. They're not currently based in the Far East either.

Planes are certainly easier to make than ships. Typically on a ratio of about 10 to 1. Also, it depends on US behavior in the case of Japanese attack on Southern Kurils. Japanese warships require components imported from US and it is likely US will halt such deliveries in such a scenario the way France halted Exocet delivery to Argentina after Argentina attacked Falklands thus with only 4 Exocet missiles at their disposal Argentina was not able to retain Falklands after easily taking them.
Japan's attack on the Kurils is unlikely to happen without at least tacit US approval. I strongly suspect it won't happen at all, but that's a separate conversation. Even if the US halts deliveries, what makes you think existing stockpiles of munitions and components are too small to fight a war? Come to think of it, what makes you think they will halt components or munitions at all? France is an ally of the UK and halted deliveries to a third party that's at war with an ally. The US and Russia at the best of times were... "partners". At the worst of times, openly fighting each other (Korea, Vietnam, etc.). And currently relations are again slipping towards the worst. But a close US ally, that hosts major US military bases, and is a high level participate in the F-35 program, is going to get cut off on parts if they end up in a war with Russia declared or otherwise? This seems unlikely. It seems even more unlikely that this hypothetical war would strain production capabilities, or would even involve production capabilities. It's far likelier, in my opinion, that it will be over relatively quickly and existing stockpiles will have to do.

Also while planes are easier to make, they can not provide the presence that a ship can, nor are they anywhere near as versatile. A single frigate can hunt for enemy subs, control the airspace, and trade AShMs with enemy surface combatants all at the same time, and the first two it can do for quite extended periods of time (the third until it runs out of AShMs, enemy combatants, or is taken out). How many aircraft ASW+fighter jets would it take to provide similar airspace and undersea coverage compared to a single frigate for a time frame comparable to the endurance of said frigate?

You also disregard Japanese aircraft as if the war will one of the Japanese Navy vs. the VVS. Japan has modern AEW, EW, and a considerable force for 4.5th gen jets, along with a small but significant quantity of F-35s (over 300 multirole jets of all types). East MD has significantly less. How many A-50s are in East MD? How many A-50Us, the relatively modern ones? How many fighter bases does East MD have, and how many additional aircraft can they operate within the capacities of those bases? How long would it take to expand said capacity to ramp up presence of Russian jets? How many theater SAM btlns are in the area? How many can be rebased within a relevant timeframe?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Don't they operate a number of Mig-31Ks with plans to fit Tu-22Ms with Kinzhals as well? Perhaps the lack of coordination exercises is due to not considering such a scenario possible in the near term. I am under the impression that military aircraft are much easier for Russians to make and operate than warships. Am I wrong on this?
I think this is important to highlight. Traditionally the USSR pioneered and developed maritime missile strikes as a concept, and did it on such a scale and to such an extent that it had geo-strategic implications. Some of the equipment used for that still exists today, emphasis on some. This often leads casual observers to think that Russia has retained this capability, and thus poses a threat to foreign CVBGs. Unfortunately (or fortunately if you're the owner of one of those CVBGs) Russia hasn't. The AVMF today fields several combat regiments that primarily consist of Su-24s and Su-27s, with some MiG-31s (iirc it's either one regiment or one squadron out of Kamchatka, and one regiment or squadron in the Northern Fleet). The Su-24s and Su-27s have been slowly getting replaced by the Su-30SM, which is in principle a good aircraft for the AVMF, and is relatively cheap, though it requires modernizing at this point. The AVMF also operates Il-38s, Il-38N, and Tu-142, that can all be theoretically used as MPA.

Combat regiments look as follows (forgive me if my information isn't 100% up to date):

Northern Fleet
2 carrier fighter regiments, one flying Su-33s, one flying MiG-29Ks, neither at full strength (due to accidents)
1 MiG-31 regiment
1 Su-24MR squadron (part of a mixed regiment)
~1 squadron of Tu-142s (how many are operational is unclear, some are, likely not all)
unknown number of Il-38s, some Il-38Ns with the Novella system

Baltic Fleet
2 fighter regiments, one rearming from Su-24s and Su-27s to Su-30SM (iirc Su-27s are all replaced already), one still flying Su-27SM
no MPA of any kind

Black Sea Fleet
1 fighter regiment rearming from Su-24s to Su-30SMs (iirc one squadron has been replaced)
no MPA of any kind

Pacific Fleet
1 fighter regiment on MiG-31BM in Kamchatka
1 mixed Il-22 and Il-38 regiment Kamchatka
1 squadron of Tu-142s (again unclear how many operate) in Primorye
some quantity of Il-38s, organization unclear

With this in mind, what kind of maritime strike operations can they perform? The Su-30SM and Su-24 can carry the Kh-31A and theoretically MD variants. This is a Soviet-era tactical AShM with the A variant having a range of iirc 70 kms. Realistically, unless you're hoping the VVS will provide the escorts, most fleets can at most dedicate a squadron to a strike, with aircraft from the second squadron supporting as escorts. Baltic and Northern Fleets have more aircraft, sort of. The Northern Fleets two carrier fighter regiments, if used for regular maritime strike, make a difference, but they have almost no other strikers. If they dedicate their MPAs and their Su-24MRs to recon, and use the MiG-31s as escorts (suboptimal at best of course) then they can potentially dedicate ~2 squadrons to a single strike. Again this is assuming all kinds of things not in evidence (like coordination exercises on a multi-regiment level). The Baltic fleet can also, theoretically perform a regiment-sized strike (carrying 2 Kh-31s each, that's a volley of 24 AShM). The Pacfic Fleet has effectively no maritime strike capability of any kind. Their only combat jets are MiG-31s out of Kamchatka. But the Baltic Fleet has no MPAs (so realistically some of their remaining Su-24MRs would have to work recon to get the rest on target) and the Pacific Fleet has a gigantic AOR for even their decent-sized force of MPAs.

Again this is all without taking into consideration enemy action. This is simply an exercise, find and sink a moving target. When you throw in that many of the "MPA" listed will actually be dedicated to ASW in a real war, and that many of these MPAs make for easy targets for enemy aircraft, and that inevitably some combat jets will have to be dedicated to counter-air operations in support of them, the availability of combat jets for strikes shrinks even further. Consider that the Su-30SM could very well carry both the X-35U and the Oniks/Yakhont family but this has not been seen, at least by me, to date. On the one hand I'm honestly not sure why (traditional Russian problems with cross-platform integration? But the MKIs carry the Brahmos, and the Su-34s carry the X-35...). On the other hand, even if they did, we're still not going to see swarms of Russian jets attacking anyone's naval battle groups any time soon, primarily because they are not planning for it.

In point of fact the types of assets that could be highly useful in this scenario (again theoretically) are all in the VVS, the Tu-95s and Tu-160s with their long range and large combat load, the A-50Us that could be used not only for AEW but also (at least in theory) to look for enemy surface combatants, the tankers that could extend the range of many of these aircraft patrolling over the ocean. It's extra interesting that the VVS Su-34s have practiced for maritime strikes, primarily as single aircraft, and in pairs, using X-35s. But, last I checked none are in the Far East, and all the strikes were in relatively simple scenarios (easy targets near the coast of Syria, and the Caspian). The giant AoR of the Pacific Fleet, with multiple neighbors that operate very powerful navies (US, RoK, Japan, China) is deprived of maritime strike capability almost completely. And this is probably because Russian planners don't consider a conflict there particularly likely.

I hope this puts to rest dreams of Sovietesque bomber fleets torching western (or Chinese) naval groups in a battle over the Kurils/North Atlantic/Mediterranean/New Zealand/[insert pet future battlefield here].
 
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SolarWind

Active Member
Any modern warfare including Russia is sure to include electronic measures, which will increase efficiency of any aircraft and missiles on one side and decrease efficiency of air and naval forces on another side, in some proportion to the balance of electronic warfare capabilities. It may be good to consider EW as force multiplier. Another point to consider is that Russia has strategic depth on its east side, they could chose and time any response to potentially hostile actions to their best advantage.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
One final long-ish post on the topic. There is some light amidst this doom and gloom. Black Sea, Northern, and Pacific fleets have all taken deliveries of modern coastal AShMs. UAV units are being stood up all across the VMF, including the Forpost MALE UAV, and Russia's domestic Orion has begun deliveries under a serial tech-passport though not yet to the VMF. The AVMF will undoubtedly, eventually, either integrate the X-35 or Oniks (my money is on the X-35) on the Su-30SM or purchase a navalized Su-34 variant, possibly based around the Su-34M currently being finalized. The fleet of Il-38Ns is increasing in size, and I have little doubt that eventually we will see a new MPA, though I fear it will be far less capable then it really should be and not because the tech isn't available but because the thinking about what an MPA is will be narrow-minded and guided by last-century notions of ASW. The VVS will also likely continue to train for limited maritime strike operations with their Su-34 force, and the MiG-31Ks. Russia undoubtedly has some maritime strike capability. Just far less then the USSR ever had, and certainly not enough for maritime strike to be the primary tool of defeating the Japanese Navy, or any of the major navies in the Pacific, using primarily airborne maritime strike capabilities.

The problem, as I said earlier in this conversation, is that the VMF needs a serious re-assessment of its doctrine. What is it for? What exact kind of tool does Russian leadership need the VMF to be? Without clear understanding in this area, non-systemic decisions will continue, and giant funds will be wasted on projects that contribute little real benefit, while potentially highly useful prospective technologies will languish or see only limited adoption. In this regard a small naval war against someone might actually be useful, in the same way that the Georgian (and Ukrainian too, but we don't talk about that ;)) war was useful to the ground forces, and the Syrian war to the VVS. It would certainly inject some much needed reality into VMF planning, and possibly put the question of a robust maritime strike capability back on the table. But I certainly hope this won't be against Japan, because as things stand that war will be lost, and badly. And I don't think that balance will change over the next decade. It will improve somewhat but not nearly enough.

EDIT: I was doing some more fact checking and there is in fact the 277th regiment of 24 Su-34s out of Khurba, in the Far East (though pretty far north from the Kurils). It's a VVS regiment, and could hypothetically be used to provide maritime strike capabilities to the Pacific Fleet, assuming they start training for it. But of course they are not organic to the AVMF. I'll see if I can find any evidence of them practicing X-35 launches.
 
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Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Two updates.
The first is about the third and fourth ship of Prokject 11711, which are of the modified enlarged ones. We also see here in this article a nice size comparison.

The Project 09852 Belgorod K-329 will be the first carrier of Poseidon/Kanyon/Status-6. It was launched in april 2019, but its current status is unclear.
 
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RoyZZConnor

Member
Interesting Chinese TV reports about Gorshkov frigates and Thundering corvettes equipped with AESA and striclty VLS and Zircon / Kalibr anti ship / land attack missiles. This new breed of smaller and better equipped surface combatants are expected to completely phase out Kirov / Slava cruisers and Sovremenny / Udaloy destroyers by the 2040s.


 
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SolarWind

Active Member
Battlecruiser Lazarev of project number 1144 is being scrapped. This puts to end speculations on final numbers of active 1144's.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
According to

the keel of the 13th Project 21980 built by Zelenodolsk Shipyard has been laid. Also Vostochnaya Werf is building this class of 31 meter long anti-saboteur boats.

In total already 20 are delivered to the Russian Navy and National Guard, with 6 under construction. Until now there are no export orders yet.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
An interesting article about the Project 09852 Belgorod and a new satellite photo of it.
The Project 09852 is a highly secret program of the Russians, so i wonder why they expose this Belgorod in the open air.
 

SolarWind

Active Member
An interesting article about the Project 09852 Belgorod and a new satellite photo of it.
The Project 09852 is a highly secret program of the Russians, so i wonder why they expose this Belgorod in the open air.
I am not too sure about this, but if I understand correctly, the sub is not a new construction but a refit. So if its propeller has already been seen, there is no point to hide it anymore.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
I am not too sure about this, but if I understand correctly, the sub is not a new construction but a refit. So if its propeller has already been seen, there is no point to hide it anymore.
During launch of the Project 09852 Belgorod, the tail was visible to the public/press, but the propellers were still covered.
The Belgorod is actually a new submarine, but it started his life as a normal Project 949A and stay unfinished for many years. Later the construction continues as a modified and lengthened design, the 09852.

Here another article about the coming sea trials with a photo of the launch in 2019.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group

This concept's quite interesting. Build several type of ships from Light Carrier (CVL), LHD, Hospital Ships, Artic Patrol Ships, and LPD using universal based platform.

The economics will be there in speedy design and standard fabrication. The design in CVL in my opinion should just omitted the dock, and make it more Light Carrier concepts. It's can be done using universal hull based design.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member

This concept's quite interesting. Build several type of ships from Light Carrier (CVL), LHD, Hospital Ships, Artic Patrol Ships, and LPD using universal based platform.

The economics will be there in speedy design and standard fabrication. The design in CVL in my opinion should just omitted the dock, and make it more Light Carrier concepts. It's can be done using universal hull based design.
I read this article two days ago, and while it is a good plan, and the aircraft carrier design looks great, every year we see a couple of new Russian AC-designs. And it is actually sad that it is almost 100% sure that none of them ever become reality.

But yes, it is a good concept.
 
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