Russia infuriated with Chinese export copies of Su-27 jet fighters

[gf0012-aust]

Unfortunately, reverse engineering isn't illegal, .

Actually it is. One of the conditions that China agreed to comply with when seeking WTO membership was that it would apply due diligence to issues of IPO breaches.

Reverse engineering by its very nature breaches numerous IPO Internationally enforceable caveats.

 

[Feanor]

So far there doesn't seem to be any Chinese desire to negotiate.

 

[weasel1962]

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[crobato]

So far there doesn't seem to be any Chinese desire to negotiate.

They have not negotiated since the Russians screwed up the IL-76 deal. The Russians have to fix that issue first before they can bring China to the negotiating table again.

Regardless, the real prize is the PLAAF contracts, which are many times larger than any other export contracts that only buys four to 24 planes. There is no way for the Russians ever to regain those and finance their PAK-FA. Their best compromise is to allow Russian components to participate in the J-11B, at least get some sales of components like engines. If the Russians ever threaten an embargo, you can be sure that any potential business with the Chinese even in the long term future is over and the Russians still don't want that.

 

[tphuang]

Aren't the chinese claiming to have developed the HQ-17 based on the S-300?

oh brother, you bought into that rumour? There is no evidence that China has tried to reverse engineer S-300

You said it's worse the PESA or AESA. The MKI carries PESA.

PESA is not automatically better than slotted array radar. The one J-11B certainly has better tracking range. You can even compare Zhuk-MSE to Bars originally, MSE clearly has the longer tracking range.

So the contract was for 200 Su-27SK to be license built in China. If China produces more then 200 Su-27SK/J-11B would that not violate the contract? You yourself mentioned high need for the planes.

Well, it certainly is not violating anything right now. We will see what happens when 200 mark hits. I suspect by that time J-11 series would have evolved so much that it would be hard to judge the violation part. Again, without seeing the original contract, this is hard to say for sure.

Here's an interesting article I found about the subject matter.

Outside View: China's obsolete fighters

by Ilya Kramnik
Moscow (UPI) May 2, 2008
Earlier this year reports appeared in the media that China had copied Russia's Sukhoi Su-27 Flanker fighter and that its J-11 version, now manufactured in China, would be sold to third countries, undermining Russia's positions on the global arms market.

Ilya lost all credibility after I read this part
'Chengdu J-10 -- an essentially Israeli warplane featuring Russian avionics."

Haven't read anything that explains the possible options facing the Russians in this J11B saga. So I'd just highlight some of these.

(i) Pulling the plug on maintenance

Everyone here knows how much work and spares are required for the maintenance of any aircraft. If Russia holds back spares and maintenance support to china, that could potentially cripple the existing Su-27/J-11 + J-10 fleet which has a relatively higher % component relying on the Russians.

Notwithstanding the above, ship and submarine support operations eg radars, fire control, torpedoes etc for Kilos, Sovremennys and the Luzhous etc could be affected.

Sure, China could possibly develop makeshift support (as did Iran when US held back F14 support), but this will take time. China's exposure to Russian tech has permeated down to several levels.

Actually, China gets most of its spares and maintenance from Ukraine and Belarus. Besides, it already have the capability to manufacture the entire su-27, why would it have problem maintaining one. As for Kilos, we've seen the major shipyards repairing kilos, so they have the capability to do so. I'm not sure about Sovs, but they can certainly replace shtil on 052B with HH-16 if really needed. But they imported enough shtil to last for a while. They can replace the top plate on 052B/Sov with the home born Sea Eagle.

(ii) No more new deals

There goes the Su-33 deal...

They never really wanted su-33, that's why they have the domestic naval flanker program going. As I mentioned on my blog, the first one is in final assembly right now.

(iii) No more export sales

Sales to Pakistan of the FC-1 will not go through. Other aircraft sales that is dependent on Russian engines will not go through.

WS-13 just finished with the long duration test in 2007, should be certified by late 2009. All they need is one more shipment of RD-93, and JF-17 would not be affected at all. Much of J-10s this year will be using WS-10A, so that's not going to be an issue either. I suppose the only one that could be troubling is D-30KP2 with H-6K, but that's really not that important of a program. The large bypass engine program is also apparently progressing well.

(iv) No more new foreign technology

This is potentially the biggest negative. Russia will withhold any new technology. How much other nation will present China with is a question mark.

They haven't got any new foreign technology from the Russians this past year if you haven't noticed. It's the Chinese that's delaying military cooperation, not the Russians (due to Il-76 deal).

In view of (i) to (iv) above, it is my view that China will still come to an arrangement with Russia especially when J11Bs aren't going to be that significant to jeopardise the relationship.

China will not let the Russians take advantage of it the way India did.

More significantly, what does Russia hope to accomplish? I can guess that they would want information on what the chinese have done to the Suks, possibly some kind of monitoring on the numbers but the more sensitive info like radars will probably still be out-of bounds.

My guess is that the Chinese will eventually compromise on a license arrangement that will enable Russia to keep track of the numbers but the license is unlikely to be of the same level as the original J-11 assembly.

Overall, I don't think the Russians are that naive to expect that the chinese would not be able to copy their tech. Its also not like they have shown all their tech cards over to the chinese either. Its still posturing to reap the max benefits.

China will probably eventually pay Russian some royalties (if they haven't done so) to ensure unlimited non-export production. But, it will do this for political rather than military reasons.

 

[weasel1962]

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[crobato]

As far as I understand, Russia has not stopped the delivery of engines. The Russians don't operate as a monolithic entity---just because Sukhoi is cash starved, does not mean that MiG/Klimov and Salyut has to suffer with it. FYI, as this is going on, Russia just recently delivered the last batch of S-300PMU2s under an existing contract.

Furthermore, both the Ukraine and Belarus does have the ability to maintain and even overhaul the engines, and indeed, parts such as the blades can be manufactured in China with the technical help of the Ukrainians and Belarussians.

The four earlier Kilos were all refitted inside China. Not just maintained, completely refitted---a completely different level---the first sub going in in 2005 and the last one this year. There is photographic evidence of the refitting, which can be spotted in Shanghai. There is no report that China ordered "parts" for the Kilos.

The bottom line is that Russia wants the big cash which means the Chinese business---mainly the PLAAF contracts---but it is not willing to jeopardize other contracts and future potential contracts for this. The Russians are walking a very thin line here; they obviously want some financial compensation if not another major arms contract.

 

[Feanor]

FYI, as this is going on, Russia just recently delivered the last batch of S-300PMU2s under an existing contract.

No. The S-300PMU2's will be delivered this summer.
http://www.upiasiaonline.com/Security/2008/05/02/china_to_receive_lastest_sams_from_russia/3682/

And I wonder how is Pakistan going to maintain the FC-1/RD-93 engines without Russian support.

The same way everyone else does: Ukraine. There was recently a huge scandal at the aircraft engines expo in Russia where a Russian company accused the Ukranian repair plants of conducting repairs without the licenses for it.

oh brother, you bought into that rumour? There is no evidence that China has tried to reverse engineer S-300

It was a question. I've heard rumors about it, but have not seen anything definitive, so I figured I'd ask. Another question (note: question not claim ) what about the HQ-7 and tech. transfers from the French Crotale? SinoDefense claims it was based on the Crotale.

Ilya lost all credibility after I read this part
'Chengdu J-10 -- an essentially Israeli warplane featuring Russian avionics."

To be honest I cringed when I read that, but the problem is that the article was written for a casual audience, and sometimes dumbing down the facts is the only way to get your point across. What do you think of his actual thesis/conclusion? The Su-27SK is an awfully old fighter. And it's independent Chinese production has just begun. Seems like the Chinese MiG-21 story. It was a decent fighter plane when China first got it, but here it is in service almost half a century later.

Actually, China gets most of its spares and maintenance from Ukraine and Belarus. Besides, it already have the capability to manufacture the entire su-27, why would it have problem maintaining one. As for Kilos, we've seen the major shipyards repairing kilos, so they have the capability to do so. I'm not sure about Sovs, but they can certainly replace shtil on 052B with HH-16 if really needed. But they imported enough shtil to last for a while. They can replace the top plate on 052B/Sov with the home born Sea Eagle.

So indigenization of Russian/Soviet technology with Chinese mods?

Existing Su-27s and J-11s run on the AL-31 engines. I don't think Ukraine and Belarus produces the AL-31 engines. As far as I understand, Russia has completely stopped deliveries of engines.

Duplicating engine spares is not as easy as it sounds. If not, it will mean re-engining close to 400-500 aircraft. Well, that can be done. Whether it is worth doing is another issue.

It could be done gradually, as the engines get to the end of their service life they would be replaced by the Chinese alternative.

China will not let the Russians take advantage of it the way India did.

It is slightly off topic, my apologies, but I have to disagree with you there. India actually has gotten some pretty good deals, especially in terms of technical documentation. Unless you're referencing the Gorshkov deal, I don't see where you're coming from.

 

[weasel1962]

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[qwerty223]

Existing Su-27s and J-11s run on the AL-31 engines. I don't think Ukraine and Belarus produces the AL-31 engines. As far as I understand, Russia has completely stopped deliveries of engines.

Duplicating engine spares is not as easy as it sounds. If not, it will mean re-engining close to 400-500 aircraft. Well, that can be done. Whether it is worth doing is another issue.

Having the entire cream of the air force crop lying in the hangers for the next few years whilst china cranks out the engines will be a military issue. China is not going to turn out 1,000 engines overnight. They're going to have serious serviceability issues.

Repairing or servicing ships or subs is one thing. Getting the right spare parts is another.

Whether China is taking this seriously and talking to the Russians right now? It doesn't take a genius to guess...



And I wonder how is Pakistan going to maintain the FC-1/RD-93 engines without Russian support.

Some logic I find it hard to understand. When the Chinese are proud of their J-11B, it contrast the above "China gets most of its spares and maintenance from Ukraine and Belarus", it just dont make sense. Why they need to bring in parts from a 3rd party? Not to mention there is an established framework by the existing contract, the Chinese are having a production line within the country!

 

[Ozzy Blizzard]

PESA is not automatically better than slotted array radar. The one J-11B certainly has better tracking range. You can even compare Zhuk-MSE to Bars originally, MSE clearly has the longer tracking range.

Usually at comperable power output, they are in terms of detection and track radii. But thats only a small part of assesing a radars capability, ECCM, scan rates, muti target track and engagement and performance in high clutter environments are significantly better in PESA's over MSA's. AESA's are a whole other kettle of fish....

 

[Feanor]

Well, my understanding is based on the below.
http://www1.timesofindia.indiatimes...hreatens_to_sue_China/articleshow/2973405.cms

btw, I make no comments on the accuracy of the article.

The article implies that Russia has stopped delivery of engines for the J-11, or so it seems to me.

 

[crobato]

Well, my understanding is based on the below.
http://www1.timesofindia.indiatimes...hreatens_to_sue_China/articleshow/2973405.cms

btw, I make no comments on the accuracy of the article.

Same newspaper has been ragging that the Russians won't sell the RD-93 to the JF-17 for Pakistan. And they were shown wrong.

 

[weasel1962]

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[crobato]

And I gather, the Russians are not going to hurt one sector for the sake of another. Why would MiG-Klimov be forced to halt deliveries and lost their business for the sake of Sukhoi? Or Salyut? Or Almaz? The size of these deliveries make up the lifeblood of these companies and for Salyut, the size of the Chinese engine contract outweighs by far any other other contract they have. This is now Russia in capitalism, it does not act monolithic. Every company is backed by their own faction of politicians and generals. The Russians are making way too much money from their pipelines to China, and this far outweigh the Sukhoi issue. Don't waste a thousand dollars to make a ten dollar point.

 

[Feanor]

Don't waste a thousand dollars to make a ten dollar point.

Unless it's a matter of principle.

 

[PrOeLiTeZ]

After decades of experience and production the AL-31 series are still facing issues, its operation life is WAY below Western counterparts. AL-31 isn't exactly the Golden Prize either. Russia military export on the RISE?????? Strange people say this cause India is really unhappy with TVC AL-31 equipped with its MKI force cause of its extremely short operation life.

All equipments are influenced by one another Cold War was a clear example US copies some of Soviet designs and Soviet copies some of US designs.

 

[PrOeLiTeZ]

Responding to one persons post of China not having this and that:

Attack Helo: Z-9W, Z-10 [pure attack heli not like the Z-9W)
AWACS: KJ-2000, KJ-200, Y-8 Roto
Transport: Y-8, Z-9
AAML-12, PL-8
Aerial Refuelling: Converted H-6 bomber
Bomber: JH-7A

Yes so what does Russia have that cannot already China's domestic industry cannot provide then???

I spy some Sinodefence members here

 

[Gollevainen]

People here are forgetting one major thing...

The reason why china is presistenly trying to reduce its dependency on foreign export products is plain simple: If you want to be a superpower you need to have self-reliance in weapon manufacturing as far as possible.

Wheter some system is marginally superior based on purely off-the-context performancedata is completely irrelevant. China has been in difficoult position as there have been huge generational gap between it and rest of the worlds major military powers. In order to close this cap as fast as possiple china has done the vicest possiple move: buy as much it can from as large spectrum that is possiple of foreing modern military technology. Some nationalist think this is a bad thing and tries to even deny it, but there is no shame in it, its the only option that China had.

Now we have started to see indications of the next equally logical phase: Introducing its own set of equipment which are par or near the level of sophistication as the other players have. 90% of those are based on the systems which China has aquired from foreing sources, mainly from Russia. This again reasonable as there is not much other choises if you wish to keep up the phase of the others. The next leap forward from this is the phase where we really start seeing completely indegenious and authentical ideas.

But if we go to the issue of "what Russians still has to offer" the awnser is, like many have said: not much. It would be in longterm strategical point of view harmfull to both. Chinese have already basicly adopted most of the basic stuff that there is.
This doesen't mean that China has surpassed Russia in the overall level of sophistication in military hardware. There are cases where some individual chinese system might be better in purely performance point of view which is only natural as the Russian derelight state has effiectly ment huge stagnation in the development of all technology. Still funnily enough most of the top-of-the-notch russian military hardware is still generation ahead of what chinese have at the moment and all those russian stuff, the development had started in the Soviet days. It speaks hard language...If we go to individual systems, the russian stuff that I personally would like to see in chinese inventory (and which obviously is way ahead in russia) is the complete army and airdefence forces air-defence suite and systems, Su-34, Il-76 level transport plane in production in china and last but defintely not at least the organic divisional and regimental level artillery. Chinese artillery is desperetly outdated and altough there are the new PLZ05 SP gun being introduced, it hardly sufficient enough to replace all the artillery pieces inside the PLA divisions and regiments. Alot speaks the fact that the acient D30 is just recently started to introduce to the chinese inventory....most of the chinese regimental level artillery is WWII era in its sophistication.

 

[Feanor]

Yes so what does Russia have that cannot already China's domestic industry cannot provide then???

Modern versions of all of the above