Did I say or imply that? No - I didn’t. Attributing things to me I never said or implied doesn’t help your case, and it makes it hard to take the rest seriously - especially when pushback leads straight to emotional and ad hominem responses.
I didn’t say it was propaganda - I said it was from the Central Propaganda Department of the CCP. That’s just what they’re called, don’t blame me.
So, it is still an article on what they are trading and what they are trading coming from real trade data. It is better then Bank of Finland data, that not have real first hand data on Russia Economy. Especially what Russia now trading with their trade partners.
The Economist said:
CSIS making similar claims:
https://www.csis.org/analysis/down-not-out-russian-economy-under-western-sanctionsCSIS said:
Do you mind sharing this data and providing some explanation of how this conclusion is derived from the data? I'll be honest, my economic knowledge is limited, so it would be interesting to see the connection. On a side note, does World Bank data show a similar picture?
Let me give public data link from this site, as it is quite user friendly.
tradingeconomics.com
www.tradeimex.in
www.statista.com
meduza said:
So I dug a bit deeper into the report, because I think it's interesting to see how the economy is evaluated from inside Russia. ЦМАКП, while maybe not independent in the Western sense, is as far as I can tell considered reputable within Russia for macroeconomic analysis.
Industrial growth is concentrated in defense-related sectors - civilian output has stagnated:
Private sector investment is weak and close to stagnation:
Inflation is structurally regressive, hitting the poor hardest:
A wave of corporate bankruptcies is likely due to high debt costs:
The credit market is seizing up, limiting business investment:
Unemployment is at a record low:
There is still some wage growth in sectors with labor shortages:
Monetary supply growth isn't fueling inflation (yet):
Non-food consumer price inflation is moderate:
Fascinating analysis, apparently, Russia's economic growth has been fueled by 174.9 billion dollars wealth fund (this is the number reported in February 2022 before the war started) while its military budget alone for 2024 is estimated around 130 billion. However the most fascinating part is that in April 2025 the same wealth fund stands at 140.4 billion, a whopping investment of 40 billion apparently is enough to make a country like Russia grow faster than either European Union or United States.
Approximately 10 million Chinese lost their lives fighting Imperial Japan (the most significant ally of Nazi Germany) which itself was following fascist ideology, if that doesn't give them the right to be at a Victory Parade over fascism I guess they are not European enough in your book. As for the Central Asian and Caucasian states they were part of the Soviet Union so not being at the Victory Parade on the Red Square would be weird indeed. As far as most European countries not being there that says more about them then anybody else.
A lot of failed states in your book, somebody should notify United States military that Vietnam is a failed state and that they apparently won in Vietnam, I am curious based on what criteria have you judged 25 sovereign states as failed, my guess is they are not supporting your side in a certain war as their most important failing.
Par for the course though, haha.
This is not the entire story. The Russian National Wealth Fund (primarily) consists of two parts: liquid and “not so liquid”. The entire Fund’s current value is about $350B. This, of course, excludes the Fund’s Forex reserves of… hmm, I don’t recall exactly at the moment, but call it $300B (the real number is lower) frozen by various Western nations. The liquid part of the Fund had about halved (perhaps more than halved) so far since the 2022 invasion. That would be over 3 years now. Of course, 2022 oil revenue was very considerable, so we can probably discount that first year. This article talks about exactly this and I am going to use it a source for my numbers (I didn’t read the entire article, but the source is solid):
en.thebell.io
That is true.
www.statista.com
en.m.wikipedia.org
Imagine telling to the Chinese (or a whole bunch of others in the world greatly affected by the WW2, including Africa) that they were not affected and then spewing utter nonsense. Including the “mongols” nonsense. “All the countries which were under Mongol rule 700 years ago gathered again at the Parade in 2025, while the map provided clearly includes Ukraine as well (which presently is an actual failed state, history still pending). Crazy stuff.
I agree that the narrative of Russia currently running out of money or resources doesn’t hold up well under scrutiny. That said, an interesting question might be: Hypothetically, how much economic/financial loss, whether direct or in terms of opportunity cost, wouldboth the ruling class and the general population be prepared to absorb for the Ukraine war? Would they be willing to continue all the way to bankruptcy, or where does the threshold lie? At what point does the cost become strategically unsustainable? And would it even be possible for third parties to inflict damage this high via sanctions et al?Par for the course though, haha.
This is not the entire story. The Russian National Wealth Fund (primarily) consists of two parts: liquid and “not so liquid”. The entire Fund’s current value is about $350B. This, of course, excludes the Fund’s Forex reserves of… hmm, I don’t recall exactly at the moment, but call it $300B (the real number is lower) frozen by various Western nations. The liquid part of the Fund had about halved (perhaps more than halved) so far since the 2022 invasion. That would be over 3 years now. Of course, 2022 oil revenue was very considerable, so we can probably discount that first year. This article talks about exactly this and I am going to use it a source for my numbers (I didn’t read the entire article, but the source is solid):
No, Russia isn’t about to run out of money
Hello! Welcome to your weekly guide to the Russian economy — written by Alexandra Prokopenko and Alexander Kolyandr and brought to you by The Bell. This week we look at whether Russia’s National Wealth Fund is in danger of running dry, and what it would mean if it did. We
It should be noted, however, that a great deal of Fund’s current value comes from the price of gold that is at all time high. At the same time, it is unlikely for the gold price to fall significantly without a dramatic increase in oil prices. That’s just the nature of the game usually.
That is true.
To add, people blinded by whatever feelings they have in this situation have been making a lot of statements that make zero sense (this is true for both sides). This is also true for people who have very good understanding of economics as well and are well aware of the data. Some very good economists have embarrassed themselves numerous times over in the past three years with their analysis and predictions.
Here are a couple more things to keep in mind. Russia’s current gold reserves alone can nearly cover their entire external debt. The value of the reserves that are not frozen is probably not far from covering their entire national debt (don’t quote me on these statements, but I am not that far off, I am sure). Further more, Russian debt (and debt to GDP ratio) is one of the lowest in the world. Here is one point:
In 2023, Russia's estimated level of national debt reached about 19.66 percent of the GDP, ranking 17th of the countries with the lowest national debt.
Countries with the lowest national debt 2023| Statista
The statistic shows the 20 countries with the lowest national debt in 2023 in relation to the gross domestic product (GDP).
Here is another point:
View attachment 52861
List of countries by external debt - Wikipedia
A few things should be noted just by looking at the numbers in the table above. One is the (external) debt to GDP ratio. Just above 13%; China is the only country there that has a lower ratio and another, India, that even comes close. If you scroll down the list further, you sill see that this doesn’t change much, a few “poors” aside (some of the poorest countries in the world have low ratio because they do not have the capacity to borrow, neither externally, nor internally). A consideration that should also be given in this regard is how this ratio would change if you substitute the GDP at purchasing power parity (hint: it would decrease dramatically - that is, in Russia, money can go a much longer way). The second thing that should be noted is debt as the percentage of total wealth. For Russia, that number does not even reach 7% (compare the two numbers to the other significant economies of the world). There is a lot of capacity to expand there for Russia and they have been running a rather tight ship for quite some time. Rather amazing, but fiscal responsibility is actually a thing.
The third point is the amount of extremely valuable state owned assets that the Russian government has in its possession. These can be privatized to finance whatever it is needed to be financed (and this would be the indicator of the actual big trouble).
The fourth and final point that I will make on the subject here is the following (just google search ai generated stuff):
View attachment 52862
So there is years worth of shakedown here if it is ever needed.
Overall, the economy is far from failing, obviously. Check out the link cited by personaldesas (if I got that right) above (I was going to cite the same source document myself, funny enough, but never got to it). Military spending removed, the manufacturing is still sitting above the 2021 level (over 2%). This is considering that some key elements had completely collapsed post invasion, auto industry being the most prime example. Somewhat stagnant, sure, but far from big trouble. Consider that the difference of the total economic value between with and without military spending is not even 8%. That on its own should provide some realistic perspective, alas…
Anyway, everyone is going to make up their own things on the subject, so all this writing likely has very little value. Also, Russian propaganda and all.
Imagine telling to the Chinese (or a whole bunch of others in the world greatly affected by the WW2, including Africa) that they were not affected and then spewing utter nonsense. Including the “mongols” nonsense. “All the countries which were under Mongol rule 700 years ago gathered again at the Parade in 2025, while the map provided clearly includes Ukraine as well (which presently is an actual failed state, history still pending). Crazy stuff.
Israel's “obligation” is dictated by the fact that Soviets have spent an immense and disproportional number of lives resisting Nazis and liberating numerous concentration camps. We can extend this thought and compare it to French contribution, for example, or the Balts, or the…
All these idiotic ideas really do not have boundaries. Any reasonable person will give credit where it is due (and, frankly, quite a credit it is in this case). Alas, here we are.
I watched a 11-minute long clip of the parade (the equipment rolling) in Moscow. Rather embarrassing stuff for Russia, in my opinion. This is some funny stuff from Ekaterinburg:
View attachment 52864
View attachment 52863
India's a failed state? Vietnam? Israel? Several of the others would also be hard to justify.
Maybe I am reading this wrong, but Russia's national wealth fund and its foreign reserves are not the same thing nor is one part of the other. They are separate with different portfolio of assets and different purpose. Foreign reserves value stand at 647 billion US dollars (in March 2025) including around 300 billion frozen assets in Western countries, while Russia's national wealth fund value stands at 140.4 billion. While Russia's foreign reserves are composed of foreign currency, precious metals (gold, silver...) and various types of government securities such as bonds and treasury bills, Russia's national wealth fund can have various types of non liquid assets and investments from which it can derive profits by selling them or collecting dividends.This is not the entire story. The Russian National Wealth Fund (primarily) consists of two parts: liquid and “not so liquid”. The entire Fund’s current value is about $350B. This, of course, excludes the Fund’s Forex reserves of… hmm, I don’t recall exactly at the moment, but call it $300B (the real number is lower) frozen by various Western nations. The liquid part of the Fund had about halved (perhaps more than halved) so far since the 2022 invasion. That would be over 3 years now. Of course, 2022 oil revenue was very considerable, so we can probably discount that first year. This article talks about exactly this and I am going to use it a source for my numbers (I didn’t read the entire article, but the source is solid):
It should be noted, however, that a great deal of Fund’s current value comes from the price of gold that is at all time high. At the same time, it is unlikely for the gold price to fall significantly without a dramatic increase in oil prices. That’s just the nature of the game usually.No, Russia isn’t about to run out of money
Hello! Welcome to your weekly guide to the Russian economy — written by Alexandra Prokopenko and Alexander Kolyandr and brought to you by The Bell. This week we look at whether Russia’s National Wealth Fund is in danger of running dry, and what it would mean if it did. We
The problem is that majority of the analysts or experts are no longer paid to give their professional opinion but to give a certain opinion, so that policy makers can justify their course of action. this is the problem that far surpasses just the economics and is present in various other fields as well.
Russia's economy has many structural problems that date long before the start of the Ukrainian war, the three most prevalent concerns are (in my opinion) corruption, high labor intensity (exacerbated by war) and low productivity. Generally speaking if these three issues can be remedied to a certain extent Russia's economy would be able to cope with Western sanctions indefinitely. The immediate concern (as the mentioned problems before are long term issues) is inflation. Although the inflation is decreasing (very slowly) it remains the main challenge for people running the Russian economy and I suspect it will remain a problem for several years to come. High inflation keeps interest rates high limiting the amount of private investment in Russia's economy and necessitates high percentage pay increases on yearly basis to keep the purchasing power of the population sufficient to deal with it. Root causes of inflation are both war related and non war related but the prevalent one now is steadily increasing consumer demand due to high real wage increases. The tricky part is managing to significantly slow down inflation while still increasing wages to keep the population content. To add to the problem efforts to slow down the inflation will undoubtedly negatively affect GDP growth increasing the risk of recession. Whether they will be successful at so called "soft landing" or not remains to be seen.
In some similarities, US and Russia administration responsible to each nation inflation rate due to artificially increase money supply. Both to keep prepping up consumer spending to combat crisis effect. US mostly to covid crisis and Russia to war crisis.
They don't have the right to use this thematic when parading in Russia. If they want to parade with war criminals, it's their right. But they shouldn't tell us about "victory over nazism" because it's disgusting.Karl Franz said:
Yes, exactly as you put it. On top of other considerations.Karl Franz said:
LOLKonrad Iturb said:
According to the ideology at the Kremlin, Ukraine should be part of it. Indeed.KipPotapych said:
The most idiot idea is to think that they had a minute of silence for those who fell fighting the Nazi.KipPotapych said:
Estimation in USD have no meaning whatsoever. Actually, the Russian economy is disconnected from the dollar. As KipPotapych said, The Russian National Wealth Fund consists of two parts: liquid and “not so liquid”. Only 32% of it liquid. Almost all the liquidities are in Rubble, a little part in Yuans and an very small part in other currencies. And everything is calculated in Rubble.Karl Franz said:
KipPotapych said:
Nuh!Once Russia has engaged into a war economy, the population brainwashed to the core, and a powerful ally willing to give it substantial support, they can keep it going almost indefinitely.personaldesas said:
Yes, it's exact. We often mix one and the other. (It's not clear however what proportion of the frozen assets are central bank reserves or national fund assets).Karl Franz said: