So I dug a bit deeper into the report, because I think it's interesting to see how the economy is evaluated from inside Russia. ЦМАКП, while maybe not independent in the Western sense, is as far as I can tell considered reputable within Russia for macroeconomic analysis.
They state that: while headline indicators like GDP and unemployment look good, the underlying economy - particularly the civilian and private sectors - is stagnating, with growing structural risks.
Quick summary:
- GDP growth is driven by base effects and non-productive sectors.
- Industrial production outside defense is stagnant.
- Private investment and consumption are stalling.
- Inflation hits the poor hardest.
- High interest rates and a credit crunch are choking investment.
- Risk of widespread corporate bankruptcies is rising.
- Some positives remain: record-low unemployment and modest wage growth in high-demand sectors.
Relevant quotes:
I used automatic translation for most of this, so if any Russian speaker here can check whether the translations are fair, I'd really appreciate it.
Real productive growth has nearly stopped, despite reported GDP growth:
"Прирост ВВП оценивается в 3.8–4.0% [...] Однако, формально, высокие темпы роста ВВП затеняют тот факт, что по сути реальная производственная активность в экономике увеличиваться почти перестала."
→ "GDP growth is estimated at 3.8–4.0% [...] However, high headline growth rates obscure the fact that real productive activity in the economy has nearly stopped increasing."
Industrial growth is concentrated in defense-related sectors - civilian output has stagnated:
"Если же рассмотреть объем промышленного производства без учета секторов с ощутимым присутствием ОПК, следует констатировать, что стагнация наблюдается с середины 2023 г."
→ "Excluding sectors with significant military-industrial presence, stagnation has been observed since mid-2023."
Private sector investment is weak and close to stagnation:
"Текущая инвестиционная активность частного бизнеса, судя по косвенным признакам, близка к стагнационной."
→ "Current investment activity of private business, judging by indirect signs, is close to stagnation."
Inflation is structurally regressive, hitting the poor hardest:
"Рост цен по корзине «для бедных» существенно выше общего уровня инфляции."
→ "Price increases for the 'basket for the poor' are significantly higher than the overall inflation rate."
A wave of corporate bankruptcies is likely due to high debt costs:
"Российская экономика стоит перед угрозой масштабного скачка корпоративных банкротств."
→ "The Russian economy faces the threat of a large-scale surge in corporate bankruptcies."
The credit market is seizing up, limiting business investment:
"Произошло т.н. «кредитное сжатие» [...] выдачи новых банковских кредитов по наиболее значимым сегментам упали на 30–50%."
→ "A so-called ‘credit crunch’ occurred [...] loan issuance in key segments fell by 30–50%."
Unemployment is at a record low:
"Уровень безработицы в октябре-ноябре снизился до рекордно низких 2.3%."
→ "The unemployment rate in October–November declined to a record-low 2.3%."
There is still some wage growth in sectors with labor shortages:
"Сохраняется медленный рост реальной заработной платы [...] Основным фактором роста выступает сохраняющийся дефицит (квалифицированного) труда."
→ "A slow increase in real wages continues [...] The main factor behind this growth is the ongoing shortage of (qualified) labor."
Monetary supply growth isn't fueling inflation (yet):
"Его динамика де-факто не создает инфляционного давления."
→ "Its dynamics do not create inflationary pressure in practice."
Non-food consumer price inflation is moderate:
"Рост цен на непродовольственные товары [...] существенно ниже (+0.81% за декабрь, +6.12% в годовом выражении)."
→ "Price growth for non-food products was significantly lower (+0.81% in December, +6.12% year-on-year)."
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