Russia - General Discussion.

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
But unlikely that they'd tell outright lies about tip-offs from multiple NATO officials, even when the tip-offs have been conditional on anonymity.
Possibly, but they also reported Saddam's WMD as being verified when he didn't have any.

Now for something completely different. This article in Foreign Affairs Putin’s Roulette (sorry it's paywalled) argues that the military failures in Ukraine and Putin's conscription are beginning to turn his heartland supporters against him. These are the people who can't get away and / or who don't have the money and / or the resources to leave the country.

"President Vladimir Putin’s partial mobilization has already been colloquially dubbed the mogilizatsia, a wordplay on mobilizatsia, the Russian word for “mobilization,” and mogila, the word for “grave.” What is more, in practice, this move-to-the-graveyard is proving to be far from partial. Despite assurances by Putin and his defense minister that the draft would be limited to 300,000 people, primarily military reservists who had already served in the army and in conflict zones, Russians have already witnessed the forced conscription of men of all ages across the country. The mobilization has turned out to be almost general.
Even the most committed supporters of Putin and the regime can see that the Kremlin is aiming at a much higher figure: likely more than a million men, although Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has denied that. Such a figure would effectively double the size of the existing army, meaning that a total of two million people would be in uniform. (Although uniforms, like medicines, have become difficult to acquire: those who are mobilized are forced to buy their own uniforms and outfit themselves with first-aid kits.) Much depends, of course, on the administrative zeal of the authorities running regional recruitment offices, which, in many regions, are targeting all male citizens regardless of age or military rank or experience."

So you get conscripted and you are then forced to buy your own uniform and medical first aid kit. That's a good beginning, makes for happy troops willing to go and inflict death and destruction upon the heathen enemy for the glorious leader, dying a heroic, glorious death in the process that will be spoken about down through the ages, and oh - bound to raise morale. :D

"Rather than the democrats or liberals in Russia’s large cities, it is ordinary Russians who see the ruthless hunt for military recruits as a violation of their rights. More important, it is a violation of the unwritten agreement they have long had with Putin’s regime, the agreement that says that average Russian citizens won’t interfere with the Kremlin’s thieving and military adventurism as long as the Kremlin stays out of their private lives and out of their apartments, allowing them to earn a living for themselves. Military service in the name of unclear goals—and the forced exit from cozy indifference that has come with it—was definitely not in the contract. A new joke in the genre of very black humor has emerged on this subject: in the battle between the refrigerator (consumer needs) and the television (government propaganda), the television has won. But now the TV will have to fight a new battle with a different kind of refrigerator—the kind in which dead bodies are stored." (Emphasis mine).​

Crossing that line may prove to be a fatal mistake for Putin because the people will only put up with so much rubbish. This is not WW2 where Russia was attacked by a merciless foreign invader and the people were more than willing to make huge sacrifices for their motherland (and did). This is Putin's war, started by him and he's stuffed it up. It doesn't matter whether his Generals were good or bad, the ultimate responsibility is his.

"The political elites who launched and supported the war won’t be found in the trenches. Dictatorial self-interest is also apparent in the mechanics of who can be exempted from the draft: the authorities are calling up people with professions needed by the economy and society—people such as pilots, the owners of small and medium-sized businesses that provide vital parallel imports of consumer goods, and school teachers. But they are not calling up the professional purveyors of propaganda, for instance, whom the Communications Ministry has exempted. It is irrational and unjust. In the race to evade the draft and avoid fighting in the regime’s war, those who are closest to the regime are winning."

I remember reading something the other day that Dimitri Peskov's son was able to avoid conscription because of who he is. Later his father confirmed that the son would not be joining the army. IIRC Josef Stalin's two sons fought against the Germans during WW2. The older of the two was taken POW by the Germans and used as a hostage by them. Stalin refused to entertain a prisoner swap and the son later died in a POW camp. Other Soviet leaders and allied leaders had close relatives on the frontlines during WW2.

"Conditioned over decades to remain inert, public opinion in Russia tends to change very slowly, as the small slides in Putin’s ratings show. Undoubtedly, the majority of the population—the 50 percent who remain firmly in favor of the war—will support everything the regime does, perhaps up to and including nuclear strikes. This is the hyper-obedient section of the population. But for another 30 percent, those who—until now—have simply found it easier to support rather than oppose the regime, Putin’s actions could have much more far-reaching consequences. These Russians are filled with doubt and dissatisfaction; for them, it is already clear that the mobilization isn’t partial, and if this impression begins to spread more widely, then the general attitude of Russian society at large could begin to shift. ...
For now, Putin has decided to swiftly set his losses in stone, declaring them acquisitions and achievements. That appears to be the logic behind the inordinate haste to hold referendums in eastern Ukraine: a victory of some sort has to be declared. The referendums are another hurried, bitter response from Putin behind which, as with all his decisions in recent years, there is ever less rationale and ever more palpably powerful emotions. The intention was immediately apparent, however, because no one among the Russian authorities feels any shame any more: following the referendums, which have no legal basis and whose results cannot be verified, the occupied territories will be regarded as Russian. At that point, any Ukrainian counterattack on those territories can be regarded as an attack on Russia itself.
This could lead to a range of consequences, up to and including the use of nuclear weapons. Talk of the use of Russia’s nuclear capability has become so casual and so frequent that it has almost become the new normal in the Kremlin’s discourse and in the narrative being put forward on its propaganda shows. Putin’s dark threats of using “all the means at our disposal,” apparently aimed at stirring up the population and girding them for battle, may at some point have the opposite effect: Is it wise to trust a leader who is dragging the nation into a nuclear winter? Russians may start fearing a nuclear war more than they fear Putin himself. Few people want to live inside an open-ended Cuban Missile crisis."

There we have it. The author's premise appears to be that Putin is gambling his and Russia's future, and that the Russian people will not turn against him. He say Putin appears to believe that he can sufficiently oppress them enough to forestall any mass opposition. The real problem is that Putin has broken the unwritten agreement and the people are unhappy about it. The question though is there enough anger and resentment present within the population to force a change of government? At present I believe that there are to many unknowns and one of the biggest would be which side the military would take. The author talks about Russia moving from autocracy to democracy but I wonder if democracy is the right form of government for Russia.
 
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swerve

Super Moderator
In 1990 Saddam's WMDs were verified. He'd used them, & there was evidence galore.

In 2003 the question was whether he still had any or not, & IIRC the reports given to politicians said that it was possible that he had, but not known for sure, & politicians (Bush & Blair) presented that as verified.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
In 1990 Saddam's WMDs were verified. He'd used them, & there was evidence galore.
He indeed had them but as an act of self preservation he later dismantled the programme. The only problem was he wasn't every open about it because he didn't want the Iranians to know; to him they were the main threat. He was under the illusion that cooperating with the weapons inspectors would suffice to prove that he did not have a MD programme.

In 2003 the question was whether he still had any or not, & IIRC the reports given to politicians said that it was possible that he had, but not known for sure, & politicians (Bush & Blair) presented that as verified.
We know from a variety of sources that by 2003 there were grave doubts within the Western intelligence community whether Saddam actually had any WMDs left but this was irrelevant to the U.S's and Britain's political leadership as their main agenda was the removal of Saddam; WMDs were a useful pretext. Their aim was to show the world that a defiant and belligerent Saddam still had WMDs and that he would use them in the future; thus for the good of the world he had to be removed.


 
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SolarWind

Active Member

An example of fact-based and objective coverage by US media. Coverage of current events. Putin and a hand-picked audience celebrate annexation while Ukraine investigates war crimes and gains ground on the battlefield. Putin verbally attacks the West and falsely justifies his nuclear weapon threats, misrepresenting history. Fiona Hill was interviewed.
 
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koxinga

Well-Known Member
In 2003 the question was whether he still had any or not, & IIRC the reports given to politicians said that it was possible that he had, but not known for sure, & politicians (Bush & Blair) presented that as verified.
STURM has given a fairly comprehensive background in his post; my only additions is are the learning points from this. (below)

Beyond the self fulfilling theories that Bush and Blair sold to themselves and the public, it also demonstrates Western politicians/public lack the imagination or ability to look outside the possibilities that has nothing to do with them. (e.g with respect to Saddam, it has more to do with deterring Iran and being seen as a creditable figure within the Arab world than actually trying to confront the West)

When India (a Quad member) abstained in the recent UN vote on the annexation, I noted that there were considerable consternation in the West, especially since China also abstained (along with Brazil and Gabon). It makes for odd bedfellows; but if we look closer at the reasons, they are starkly different.

In China's case, their "no limits" relationship along with a desire to maintain Russia as a counter balance to NATO and the West led to this choice. In the case of India, while I understand they view the annexation dimly, their position is more nuance.

 

STURM

Well-Known Member

This article looks at the Soviet/Russian/Indian relationship and explains why India has taken the stand it has with regards to Russia and its invasion.

"The relationship between Russia and India, however, is not dependent only on UN vetoes and favourable political statements. The decades-old Indo-Russian alliance is also underpinned by a long history of bilateral collaboration on economic and strategic issues."
 

swerve

Super Moderator
He indeed had them but as an act of self preservation he later dismantled the programme. The only problem was he wasn't every open about it because he didn't want the Iranians to know; to him they were the main threat. He was under the illusion that cooperating with the weapons inspectors would suffice to prove that he did not have a MD programme.



We know from a variety of sources that by 2003 there were grave doubts within the Western intelligence community whether Saddam actually had any WMDs left but this was irrelevant to the U.S's and Britain's political leadership as their main agenda was the removal of Saddam; WMDs were a useful pretext. Their aim was to show the world that a defiant and belligerent Saddam still had WMDs and that he would use them in the future; thus for the good of the world he had to be removed.


Which agrees with my main point: western officials did not tell lies to the press. They were asked by politicians to provide evidence for what the politicians wanted to say, & didn't. The most they said was that they could not say for sure that Saddam did not have any WMDs hidden. Politicians then misrepresented that.

So as I said, I find it hard to believe that NATO officials would be telling outright lies to the press.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Israel pushes measures to expedite Aliyah (immigration to Israel) for Russian Jews.

Although the article talks about Russian immigrants who arrived in other countries like Finland and Azerbaijan, the topic of Russian Jews still in Russian territory, immigrating to Israel, is a point of contention between Israel and Russia.
Israel still has many tools to use against Russia as retaliation, and we're observing how Russia slowly gnaws at its own deterrence capabilities vs Israel.
However, as long as there are Jews in Russia, Israel will be more or less paralyzed vs Russia, in fear of persecution of said Jewish population.
Immigrating from Russia, especially in times like these, is extremely difficult. Not only is it essentially leaving one's only home, it also means giving up any property one has, and move to Israel which is much more advanced, but also much more expensive to live in.

 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Another possible explanation for the pipeline explosions and I will leave it to more knowledgeable members to discuss how viable this theory could be. I was amazed by how much stuff was dumped into the Baltic after WW2 as well as the huge amounts of munitions deployed during WW1 and WW2.

 

swerve

Super Moderator
Four explosions in four places on two pipelines, all in a very short time.

Too much of a coincidence. What could have accidentally triggered rusting old munitions along both pipelines? Why were they not triggered when the pipelines were laid? Even newer munitions - why would they only explode next to the pipelines?
 

STURM

Well-Known Member

Interesting article on Russian/China relations and why bilateral ties are complex and deep rooted; contrary to the belief of many that the relationship will see a desperate Russia becoming a Chinese vassal and having to defer to it on a whole range of issues. It's simply not in China's interest to see Russia weakened to the extent that it poses no threat to the U.S. and its allies.

"China and Russia also have shared interests in jointly developing critical and enabling technologies, which could help both sides to leapfrog a generation of weapons capabilities. This includes joint development of advanced biotechnologies, which could be used in the next generation of biological or chemical weapons. And as ASPI has reported, China and Russia cooperate on next-generation communications, including Chinese telecoms giant Huawei opening data centres in Russia. They have also increased their cooperation in space. China’s aerospace industry has exchanged radiation-resistant electronic components for Russian liquid-fuelled engine technology. China has expressed an interest in Russia’s use of artificial intelligence in Syria, including drone technology and information operations. Beijing might also seek further information and knowledge on the effectiveness of Russia’s deployment of AI capabilities in Ukraine'"
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro

Interesting article on Russian/China relations and why bilateral ties are complex and deep rooted; contrary to the belief of many that the relationship will see a desperate Russia becoming a Chinese vassal and having to defer to it on a whole range of issues. It's simply not in China's interest to see Russia weakened to the extent that it poses no threat to the U.S. and its allies.

"China and Russia also have shared interests in jointly developing critical and enabling technologies, which could help both sides to leapfrog a generation of weapons capabilities. This includes joint development of advanced biotechnologies, which could be used in the next generation of biological or chemical weapons. And as ASPI has reported, China and Russia cooperate on next-generation communications, including Chinese telecoms giant Huawei opening data centres in Russia. They have also increased their cooperation in space. China’s aerospace industry has exchanged radiation-resistant electronic components for Russian liquid-fuelled engine technology. China has expressed an interest in Russia’s use of artificial intelligence in Syria, including drone technology and information operations. Beijing might also seek further information and knowledge on the effectiveness of Russia’s deployment of AI capabilities in Ukraine'"
Of course he isn't unless Putin does something absolutely stupid and it will cause serious harm to the CCP. For Xi the particular prize is Russian resources, technologies, and expertise that the CCP require and will now obtain for significantly less cost than they planned for before 24/2/22. Putin's now Xi's vassal and the whole dynamic has changed from equals to master and vassal. Karma eh.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Friday last week Norwegian PM announced increased surveillance of installations in Norwegian EEZ, with assistance from the UK, Germany and France: Norway will patrol its oil and gas platforms with help from allies, PM says | Reuters

This is excellent news. Norway's navy is very limited, and we need this help. The UK already sent a frigate. U.K. Frigate Joins Norwegian Navy Ships Guarding North Sea Pipelines - USNI News

Norway has also activated soldiers from Heimevernet to assist the police in guarding land installations, this was already in place since yesterday: Her er Heimevernet på plass på olje- og gassanlegget | ABC Nyheter

In related news, the UK has announced it intends to acquire two ships to conduct subsea surveillance: Britain to build second undersea cable protection ship (ukdefencejournal.org.uk)

This is great news -- Norway should consider joining up with the UK -- if they order two more and split the acquisition and operating costs it could help keep an eye on the thousands of kms of subsea cables and gas pipelines that both the UK and Norway are dependent on. Perhaps this could turn into a NATO asset, it could be that other European countries could also be interested. Good examples of shared NATO assets include AWACS (NATO - Topic: AWACS: NATO’s 'eyes in the sky') and the tanker and transport fleet (NSPA | Multinational Multi-Role Tanker and Transport Fleet (MMF) (nato.int)).
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Putin's now Xi's vassal and the whole dynamic has changed from equals to master and vassal. Karma eh.
The dynamic is changing, but call Russia as Chinese vassal I believe too early. I still think the balance is changing. However not so much for China to call the shoot in the relationship.


Especially after this. What bring China, Brazil, India and Gabon to the abstaintee block? They're not going to vote same with Russia, after all what Russia done is 'blatant' territorial expansion on other country Internationaly recognize border. Thus abstaintee is the most Russia can get on International support.

Three of the abstaintee are members of BRICS. Yes there're many Western pundits call BRICS days are numbered especially after Russian invasion to Ukraine. However that's off course just typical Western wishful thinking. The move in UN security council shown the relationship dynamics between BRICS members are not as simple as previously thought by many Western pundits especially in mainstream media (or you can call it mainstream think tank).

There's practically no love between India and China, Modi and Xi can be the last ones that can see eye to eye on many issues. The talk on Xi's being remove by coup last week coming and propagate by Indian sources. Still sometimes and lately in several occasions they can come to similar actions.

Off course the motives are differents. But doesn't mean they can not come to agreement on time to time. I read some Western media talking on India getting anti west. That's hilarious actually, as you will not find any Indian leaders that are more friendlier to West then Modi throughout Indian history. However India works in their own agenda, and following US and Collective West agenda on the cue is simply won't due. That kind of thinking, that being friendly to West means following US and Collective West diplomatic actions (if looking to Indian media and online forums) consider as insult for many Indians.


This is just an example of western mainstream media downgrading India thinking as Putin suport. Still with the kind of CNN, what's too expect.

This's one of things that China still need Russia for example (asides natural resources and some tech), as Russia actually still can be middle man toward some members of BRICS. Especially between India and China.

Ruling out BRICS I believe is just simply Western wishful thinking. This is shown non collective west powers are moving on their own logics and agenda, and not cueing from US and Collective West agenda. That's where Russia still matter for those outside collective west.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
only said, the gloves have come off — nothing more, nothing less. As I value my credibility, I don’t want to chase my tail on things that can’t be proved.
@OPSSG I replied your comments on this matter on this thread, as I believe it is more appropriate on talking on Nord stream 'sabotage' issues in here. If you say this thing (Russian involvement) can be proved, then NATO better prove it fast.

Perhaps Russian now playing denialbility tactics, perhaps they are just noise. However that noise if can create changes in ballots, that's will be worth while for Putin's regime. That's the point that I'll try to put before.

I agree Ukraine try to close the war ASAP, as they can't afford for prolonged war. I'm not military guy, or have background in defense industry. However as market guy, I can say what the market (even Western market) already hinting by showing market movements. Western market can not afford with prolong war, in the same time they have to tackle inflationary push results from COVID after effects.

If the ballots or public pressure change significantly within this year end, this is shown majority of western constituents saying enough is enough. By that time let's see how the situation in the ground. Ukrainian can push back Russia back to border or Russia still maintain most of those four oblast. Either way that'll be end game of this war. Simply as every one already exhausted enough to continue.

Off course what I put above is depends on the condition of the market. If market in the west improve, as economy rebound before the end of this year, then it can be other way around. Western constituents will give present administration more time, which then give them more resolve to push Russian more to brink of exhaustion. That's where we can see if Putin bluff or not (on nuclear threat).

Don't underestimate the noises, the noises whether true or lies can change the market expectations. When market change, economy change, thus the average constituents pockets.

That's where the real expectations matter, especially in democratic nations. Politicians in the end will go where the constituents expectations. Historically those expectations highly influence by their pockets.
 
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John Fedup

The Bunker Group
@OPSSG I replied your comments on this matter on this thread, as I believe it is more appropriate on talking on Nord stream 'sabotage' issues in here. If you say this thing (Russian involvement) can be proved, then NATO better prove it fast.

Perhaps Russian now playing denialbility tactics, perhaps they are just noise. However that noise if can create changes in ballots, that's will be worth while for Putin's regime. That's the point that I'll try to put before.

I agree Ukraine try to close the war ASAP, as they can't afford for prolonged war. I'm not military guy, or have background in defense industry. However as market guy, I can say what the market (even Western market) already hinting by showing market movements. Western market can not afford with prolong war, in the same time they have to tackle inflationary push results from COVID after effects.

If the ballots or public pressure change significantly within this year end, this is shown majority of western constituents saying enough is enough. By that time let's see how the situation in the ground. Ukrainian can push back Russia back to border or Russia still maintain most of those four oblast. Either way that'll be end game of this war. Simply as every one already exhausted enough to continue.

Off course what I put above is depends on the condition of the market. If market in the west improve, as economy rebound before the end of this year, then it can be other way around. Western constituents will give present administration more time, which then give them more resolve to push Russian more to brink of exhaustion. That's where we can see if Putin bluff or not (on nuclear threat).

Don't underestimate the noises, the noises whether true or lies can change the market expectations. When market change, economy change, thus the average constituents pockets.

That's where the real expectations matter, especially in democratic nations. Politicians in the end will go where the constituents expectations. Historically those expectations highly influence by their pockets.
The possibility of some fringe GOP supporters using the Ukraine war as a wedge issue in the mid-term elections could be the start of eroding support for Ukraine by the US. Falsely claiming all inflation (especially gas prices) along with a looming recession is due supporting Ukraine will be an easy sell to much of the gullible US electorate that think the former president will MAGA. Realistically this may be a bigger concern in the 2023-24 timeframe leading up to the next presidential election. Certainly world markets will not be happy if this war drags on into 2024 nor will most Western electorates. Can’t see Russia doing well in 2024 unless Xi really steps up his support, something that really isn’t in China’s interest at the moment. A Taiwan invasion plan in the next year or so might change this however.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
It also isn't in China's interests to see Russia too weakened. If things get worst for Russia there is a strong possibility that China could get more involved; given the important place Russia occupies in China's strategic calculus. Have a look at the link I posted in post 1,311.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
China has Russia's nuclear arsenal as the guarantor that western military presence won't surround it. But that's assuming Russia sees the west as an enemy, and that will only remain so if Putin, or an anti-western elite, rule over Russia.
So it is a clear Chinese interest that Russia stays the anti-western immovable object that it always was. And it may seem that the best way to do that is to either send arms and advisors to Russia to mitigate Putin's popularity loss, or provide intelligence vs dissidents and know-how on mass surveillance, or all of the above.
But we cannot expect every country, including China, to act in their best interests, or to do that in the most straightforward way.
What I suggest, is that China is playing the long game, and betting on the more likely scenario.

What is more likely? That Russia becomes a NATO base, or that China's neighbors become militant and reinforced by emboldened western countries?
I think the latter.
The more China involves itself in the Russian mess, the more the west will be emboldened to commit resources vs China.
Getting its neighbors to stand down and become docile is one separate issue. It has the chance to let the militant phase of Europe to die down, and go back to exerting its influence and acting on its policies on a less hostile world.
Part of the leverage it has, it draws from soft power inside western countries that would then be deterred from any economical sanctions or hostile actions.
Right now, Europeans are more attentive to the US on security matters, and China can thus try to stay under the radar for a while.
It would also allow it to take care of its domestic problems, like crashing markets.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
But that's assuming Russia sees the west as an enemy, and that will only remain so if Putin, or an anti-western elite, rule over Russia.
Even if Putin was done away with it will not automatically lead in Russia not having any issues with the West; security related issues. Just like how in the unlikely even of the Chinese Communist Party losing power; the country's new rulers will change the stance on Taiwan, the Spratlys and the Uighurs.

So it is a clear Chinese interest that Russia stays the anti-western immovable object that it always was.
It is clear that for China; Russia occupies a very important part in the strategic calculus; whether to keep the West distracted in Europe or as a provider of certain technologies which desperately China needs. It's also clear that a too weakened Russia is not to China's advantage.

What I suggest, is that China is playing the long game, and betting on the more likely scenario.
It's playing the long game yes but with Russia it's the only game which can be played; China has no substitute for Russia.

that China's neighbors become militant and reinforced by emboldened western countries?
China's neighbour's on its southern and eastern flank are treaty linked U.S. allies and further afield practically every littoral country in South East Asia has a much closer security relationship with the U.S.

The more China involves itself in the Russian mess, the more the west will be emboldened to commit resources vs China.
China will not openly or extensively get involved; doesn't necessarily mean it will totally keep its hands off; given the strategic dynamics at play.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Even if Putin was done away with it will not automatically lead in Russia not having any issues with the West; security related issues.
According to Putin's old speech writer his days may be numbered. But you are right because who or what replaces him will not necessarily mean stopping the war against Ukraine, nor the hate against the west.

Just like how in the unlikely even of the Chinese Communist Party losing power; the country's new rulers will change the stance on Taiwan, the Spratlys and the Uighurs.
Why do you think that it's "... unlikely even of the Chinese Communist Party losing power?" That is quite possible in all worlds. Look at what happened to the CPSU and the USSR. There are very few absolutes in nature and the CCP remaining in power is definitely not one of them. At some stage they, like all the preceding dynasties, will lose the Mandate of Heaven and will be replaced.
It is clear that for China; Russia occupies a very important part in the strategic calculus; whether to keep the West distracted in Europe or as a provider of certain technologies which desperately China needs. It's also clear that a too weakened Russia is not to China's advantage.
Actually a weakened Russia is very much to China's advantage because there is a long history between them and Beijing would far rather have the upper hand in any relationship with Russia. The last thing that they want is a really strong Russia with imperial ambitions on their northern borders.
However they don't want it so weak that it cannot withstand marauding heathens from the European west.
It's playing the long game yes but with Russia it's the only game which can be played; China has no substitute for Russia.

China's neighbour's on its southern and eastern flank are treaty linked U.S. allies and further afield practically every littoral country in South East Asia has a much closer security relationship with the U.S.

China will not openly or extensively get involved; doesn't necessarily mean it will totally keep its hands off; given the strategic dynamics at play.
If Russia undergoes another revolution, the CCP will be really concerned because they will have no control over what happens. Would they want to support the Russian Communist Party (RCP) to form a USSR 2.0? I think only if they had full control of the RCP but there are Russians in the west of the country who still do not like Chinese, or any other non Russians and / or non Slavics.
 
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