Russia - General Discussion.

Feanor said:
Speaking of course hypothetically (wouldn't want to thank anyone in my twitter for doing this... :rolleyes: ) who are the other two countries with sufficient capabilities?
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Which brings to the question, who has the capacity and capability to mount such an operations, within waters that according to @kato is well patrolled and monitored.
 
kato said:
Speaking purely in the sense of capacity for and proficiency with specialized operations, having the nominal capability to properly use and deploy UUVs within those, being notionally able to build the required connections in theater to conduct such an operation clandestinely with a fairly good chance of success, and having had the opportunity to produce recent detailed imagery of the seabed in the area.

Outside the USA for non-European actors that would be China and Iran.
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Dupuy and others have pointed out that although less likely, it would not be impossible for non-state actors to do this. Nato-chef: Flera nationer eller grupper kan ligga bakom | SVT Nyheter

At 70 m depth, in theory even one diver (having specialized equipment and the right training) should be able to position explosives.
Nord Stream-lekkasjene: - Slik kunne angrepet utføres (dagbladet.no)

Logistically, would it be harder than, say, the 911 attack? Perhaps one should look for civilian deep-sea divers and/or people with access to civilian ROVs, with extremist tendencies, and check their whereabouts the last 6-7 months.
 
Vivendi said:
Dupuy and others have pointed out that although less likely, it would not be impossible for non-state actors to do this. Nato-chef: Flera nationer eller grupper kan ligga bakom | SVT Nyheter

At 70 m depth, in theory even one diver (having specialized equipment and the right training) should be able to position explosives.
Nord Stream-lekkasjene: - Slik kunne angrepet utføres (dagbladet.no)

Logistically, would it be harder than, say, the 911 attack? Perhaps one should look for civilian deep-sea divers and/or people with access to civilian ROVs, with extremist tendencies, and check their whereabouts the last 6-7 months.
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And cross check with vessel traffic information for the last six months. The diver(s) would need dive support as this will not be a simple mission and the vessel will need to be stationary for a period of time. Something like this should be detectable.

This is of course, on the assumption that divers or short range UUV are the primary method of delivery.
 
The work done on the pipeline in the last few hours reminds me of when the US blew up a gas pipeline in Siberia in the 1980s, using malware, but they say this time the damage was caused with explosives. My instinct is that this was not Russia, as many of the reasons being cooked up to give them motive seem somewhat desperate and implausible, but it took something like 20 years for Reagan's handiwork in Russia to come out, so don't hold your breath waiting for the mask to be pulled off the real culprits of Nord Stream.
 
seaspear said:
Another point to consider are the amount of greenhouse gases released this article suggests extremely large and calls this "war crimes"
www.abc.net.au

'Should be prosecuted for war crimes': Suspected Nord Stream pipe sabotage releases greenhouse gasses

Whoever is behind suspected sabotage of Baltic Sea pipes should be prosecuted for war crimes, a Stanford University climate scientist says.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
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I don't know specifically about war crimes, but makes sense to categorize it as such. This is eco-terrorism at the very least, and we've seen Iran doing it in the east med for example, when it contaminated Israel's shores with oil. I think at some point, Russia might resort to this as well. Pretend to do an STS via unflagged vessels, then dump the oil to contaminate beaches. But it would probably have to be very desperate to do that.
 
So we have some possible villains and no evidence to pin on any of them. Who has the most to gain by this act?
  1. The US?
    1. From a purely economic POV they would want to secure their market share of the European gas market and as always the Americans prefer market dominance and on their terms.
    2. BUT, if it was proved that they were indeed the villains, the blowback would be huge and set back US - European relations significantly possibly endangering NATO.
    3. There are some in the US who would be happy about that, BUT are they capable of committing such an act?
  2. Russia?
    1. Obvious villain and I have suggested that they are very high on my suspect list.
    2. Putin is desperate to have something to crow about and to punish Europe for providing assistance to Ukraine.
      1. Of course what hurts his ego most is the defiance from both Ukraine and Europe.
    3. The VMF indeed does have the capability for such an operation using submarines. I would suspect that a VMF SF team could be quite capable of undertaking such an operation without the use of subs, especially if the water depth is 170m.
    4. BUT what are the advantages to Russia in undertaking such an operation? They have already stopped the flow of gas to Europe and this doesn't achieve anything for them, not even as a statement. I know Putin is not the greatest strategist or tactician in the world but he's not like Kim il Jong who would do something like this just because he could.
  3. PRC? This is where it gets interesting.
    1. There are CCP politics involved as well as geopolitical and geostrategic politics.
    2. The CCP 20th Party Congress starts in about 2 - 3 weeks and the politics involved in that require no distractions for all involved. Xi will be wanting to keep his vassal Putin occupied while he's taking care of business. So such an incident would have the world focussed on the Baltic Sea and the world heartedly blaming Putin calling him a villain and trying real hard to prove it. Means that everyone is distracted why Xi is getting up to dirty work elsewhere. Note that Putin came up with the conscription brain wave after he met with Xi and look at how much that has focussed the world's attention.
    3. BUT Xi's current problems are in Beijing within Zhongnanhai increasing from the Politburo retreat earlier this year at Beidaihe and unless he's intending on invading Taiwan within the next couple of weeks, there's no real reason for the PRC to commit such an act.
    4. If it did indeed commit such an act and were found to be the villains, EU and American retribution would be swift. The PRC would be subjected to sanctions that would cripple it economically and technologically in the short to medium term. That is the one thing that currently "terrifies" the CCP because they haven't yet built enough resilience and capability to withstand western financial, economic and technology sanctions. They are working very hard to correct that anomaly but it will take them time. Hence they cannot risk such an operation at the moment.
  4. Iran?
    1. Well the Iranians, especially the IRGC, have been known to undertake operations against some western targets.
    2. BUT what's in it for the Iranians? What do they get out of it? Even the IRGC would be struggling to find something apart from blowing up infidel pipes. There's no commercial gain because they can't sell gas to the Europeans, and the Norwegians Saudi Arabia, and Gulf States are already on to that anyway. Iran is busy trying to increase its hydrocarbon sales to the PRC, especially if they are able to avoid SWIFT and US dollars.
Some villains and some with alibis but at the moment it is difficult to pin one. Maybe we should involve the famous French detective Inspector Clouseau.
 
Initially only 3 leaks were reported, now a 4th leak has also been reported: H I Sutton - Covert Shores

I guess this piece of information reduces further the probability of this being a non-state actor, since the complexity of this operation must have been quite high...?

CNN now reports that "European security officials on Monday and Tuesday observed Russian Navy support ships in the vicinity of leaks in the Nord Stream pipelines". Russian submarines were also observed not far from those areas last week. Russian ships routinely operate in the area, according to one Danish military official, who emphasized that the presence of the ships doesn’t necessarily indicate that Russia caused the damage. Nord Stream pipelines: European security officials observed Russian Navy ships in vicinity of leaks | CNN Politics
 
Vivendi said:
Initially only 3 leaks were reported, now a 4th leak has also been reported: H I Sutton - Covert Shores

I guess this piece of information reduces further the probability of this being a non-state actor, since the complexity of this operation must have been quite high...?

CNN now reports that "European security officials on Monday and Tuesday observed Russian Navy support ships in the vicinity of leaks in the Nord Stream pipelines". Russian submarines were also observed not far from those areas last week. Russian ships routinely operate in the area, according to one Danish military official, who emphasized that the presence of the ships doesn’t necessarily indicate that Russia caused the damage. Nord Stream pipelines: European security officials observed Russian Navy ships in vicinity of leaks | CNN Politics
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I would rather some more verification of the claims than CNN. On something like this I think we better sources and American media has a tainted reputation.
 
ngatimozart said:
I would rather some more verification of the claims than CNN. On something like this I think we better sources and American media has a tainted reputation.
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Realistically few media outlets pass the smell test IMO. Most now editorialize everything which brings out their bias, intentional or otherwise.
 
BBC story on Baltic Sea gas leak.

TEXT DELETED

Good informative story and great read. BUT you didn't provide a source link for it and you and I have had this discussion before about this without me issuing formal warnings.

This is your third and FINAL warning. Next time you breach ANY of the rules the Moderators will discuss measures to rectify your conduct. The Moderators are not happy with your posting style finding that it is not of an acceptable standard. 18 demerit points for two years awarded.


Ngatimozart.
 
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For the more tech inclined to answer, could some remote vehicle been sent down the pipes to sabotage to explode and cause the leaks? It could be interesting to find out if the pipes have been blown in or blown out.
 
Rob c said:
For the more tech inclined to answer, could some remote vehicle been sent down the pipes to sabotage to explode and cause the leaks? It could be interesting to find out if the pipes have been blown in or blown out.
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I assume you mean something moving moving inside the pipe, no idea if that is possible but I would think current video technology should be able to confirm inside or outside explosions. Pre-positioning of charges during pipeline construction is a possibility but earlier commitments on this thread suggest there was minimal Russian involvement in the actual construction…external is more likely….just my IMO though.
 
Rob c said:
For the more tech inclined to answer, could some remote vehicle been sent down the pipes to sabotage to explode and cause the leaks?
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There are socalled Pipeline Inspection Gauges (PIGs) that run through the pipes. They are being propelled by the gas pressure, and depending on model (purpose) need between 5 and 10 days for the trip from Russia to Germany. These vehicles serve for inspection and cleaning of the inside of the pipeline, typically done annually. The PIGs used in Nordstream were developed and built in Germany. The lock for inserting them is located at the Portovaya Compressor Station.

These vehicles depending on purpose start at about the size and weight of a torpedo - the inspection model as the heaviest weighs 7.5 tons and is 6.6 meters long - and in theory one could of course develop such a vehicle for the purpose of delivering an explosive charge of the currently quoted size to a preprogrammed point - provided pressure in the pipes is sufficient for propulsion (which in recent months it probably hasn't been).

Similar, generally much smaller vehicles are commonly also used in oil pipelines, and have been so since the 60s. Not exactly new technology.
 
kato said:
There are socalled Pipeline Inspection Gauges (PIGs) that run through the pipes. They are being propelled by the gas pressure, and depending on model (purpose) need between 5 and 10 days for the trip from Russia to Germany. These vehicles serve for inspection and cleaning of the inside of the pipeline, typically done annually. The PIGs used in Nordstream were developed and built in Germany. The lock for inserting them is located at the Portovaya Compressor Station.

These vehicles depending on purpose start at about the size and weight of a torpedo - the inspection model as the heaviest weighs 7.5 tons and is 6.6 meters long - and in theory one could of course develop such a vehicle for the purpose of delivering an explosive charge of the currently quoted size to a preprogrammed point - provided pressure in the pipes is sufficient for propulsion (which in recent months it probably hasn't been).

Similar, generally much smaller vehicles are commonly also used in oil pipelines, and have been so since the 60s. Not exactly new technology.
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Very interesting information, thanks for sharing.
 
seaspear said:
There are other ways to reach an area of interest to conduct attacks certainly mini subs can
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The problem with these mini-sub theories is these platforms typically operate from a bigger mothership, because they lack sufficient range and endurance. The question then is whether such a mothership sub could have slip in undetected in the Baltics, which presumbly is very difficult since that area seems well monitored and most of Russian assets in that region would have been under close surveillance due the war.
 
kato said:
There are socalled Pipeline Inspection Gauges (PIGs) that run through the pipes. They are being propelled by the gas pressure, and depending on model (purpose) need between 5 and 10 days for the trip from Russia to Germany. These vehicles serve for inspection and cleaning of the inside of the pipeline, typically done annually. The PIGs used in Nordstream were developed and built in Germany. The lock for inserting them is located at the Portovaya Compressor Station.

These vehicles depending on purpose start at about the size and weight of a torpedo - the inspection model as the heaviest weighs 7.5 tons and is 6.6 meters long - and in theory one could of course develop such a vehicle for the purpose of delivering an explosive charge of the currently quoted size to a preprogrammed point - provided pressure in the pipes is sufficient for propulsion (which in recent months it probably hasn't been).

Similar, generally much smaller vehicles are commonly also used in oil pipelines, and have been so since the 60s. Not exactly new technology.
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www.worldpipelines.com

Pig run inspection of Nord Stream pipelines

Nord Stream performs inspection of Nord Stream pipelines in 10 days
www.worldpipelines.com www.worldpipelines.com



1664534330075.jpeg
inline-inspection-tool-germany.jpg
 
ngatimozart said:
I would rather some more verification of the claims than CNN. On something like this I think we better sources and American media has a tainted reputation.
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But unlikely that they'd tell outright lies about tip-offs from multiple NATO officials, even when the tip-offs have been conditional on anonymity.
 
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