Who has the most to lose by getting caught doing this? Don’t think Russia would be very high on the list so maybe Russia is suspect number one. Frankly it doesn’t seem to be in anyone’s interest but maybe I’m missing something.
The "who has most to win/lose from X?" is an important question but not always applicable - not even governments should be expected to act entirely logically or for their actual best interests, at all times.
Who has the most to lose from a Russian-Ukrainian war? Russia and Ukraine. Who has the most to win from it? Neither of them.
Someone elsewhere noted the sabotage was at a depth of 70m, and this makes it easily accessible to civilian divers.
I'm raising the possibility of disgruntled Europeans or a false flag by rogue Russian assets to create a "This is it. They crossed the line!" moment.
I put $5 on each option.
I've seen speculations it's Europeans, the USA, and even Iran and North Korea.
Back on topic, on things that are far less mysterious. JPost (OSINT picked it up and spread it) forwarded a Ukrainian report on Russia's alleged targeting of Uman with 10 Iranian drones that were reportedly shot down by Ukraine.
Uman is a significant pilgrimage site for orthodox Jews, particularly during holidays like the Jewish new year (Rosh Hashanah) which was only a few days ago. Orthodox Jews of certain sects are known to disregard orders of governments wherever they are, placing religious rituals first as part of their world view (as long as there is conflict between the two), so naturally they disregarded Ukrainian calls to avoid pilgrimage during the war.
One quite reliable way for me to gauge the truthfulness of reports regarding Israeli foreign policy is how extensively they are covered in Israeli media. For example strikes in Syria are sometimes truly done by Israel, sometimes not, and usually when it's not Israel, the reports are mysteriously lacking and usually very far in the back pages.
Same goes here. Report only exists in one news site I found and even there overshadowed by local news.
Take it as you wish.
BUT, if it was true, then Russia would essentially be giving up yet another one of its pressure points on Israel, which still leaves it at an advantage but a relatively small one now.
Source:
Ukraine's military has reportedly shot down more than ten drones all aimed in the direction of Uman, where hasidic Jews are celebrating Rosh Hashanah.
www.jpost.com
Israel further escalates tensions with Russia following the annexation vote with a condemnation of it and announcement it will not recognize any changes of territory, in what may be a retaliation for drafting Jewish citizens of Russia after blocking their escape from the country.
Although Israel may not be at liberty to donate weapons worth billions of dollars to Ukraine due to its own preparations for what is described as the most extensive threat Israel has faced in decades, and in some aspects even since its foundation, it can, and is speculated to, provide intelligence to Ukraine on Iranian drones - what makes the tick, and what might trigger them not ticking quite so well anymore.
Source:
Jerusalem says it backs Ukraine's territorial integrity while Moscow officials assert massive support in captured lands for joining Russia; West has denounced 'sham' votes
www.timesofisrael.com