Russia - General Discussion.

[Ananda]

believe, and correct me if I am wrong, that the crash in Russian imports has led many analysts astray. This is usually an indicator of a rapid decline in economic activity which leads to GDP contraction, and as such was often cited as evidence of rapid decline of Russian economy. However this may not be the case (or at least all of the case), introduction of sanctions and restrictions have made it very difficult for Russian enterprises to import not only western but commodities from the rest of the world, this has also led many to conclude that there will be major goods shortages which would drive inflation.

I do believe it is one of the thinking from those 'pundits' that Western Politicians use when they want to punish Russia with this trade war. Put severe embargoes to Russia, and they will break down. Mostly due to the thinkin that Russia can not replace imported basic goods or materials they need to produce domestics production. I have put in this thread some time ago during the first days of this trade war from some market analysts, that caution the West the effect might not be as big as West hope. Especially if Russia can create enough import substitutions or switching some imports as you have put.

Russia doing better than expected despite sanctions: IMF

Despite damaging Western sanctions imposed on Moscow in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine, Russia's economy appears to be weathering the storm better than expected as it benefits from high energy prices,…

www.france24.com

Seems they are manage to soften the blow so far, as even IMF (reluctanly I suspect) begin to agree. Their now prediction of -6% contraction not much different then what some in market predict of less than -5% contraction as I have put in my previous post. And IMF also agree as market predict before of 22/23 needed for any asjustment.

One thing many in West seems not realise, Russian domestic substitutions not need to be on same quality of what their import before.



Look at this Lada, it is basically has technology of a decade plus ago. It is in similar specs what Chinese produce before 2010. However this means they not need as much as semiconductor as present car needed, for example. It is cheap and simple car, that Western market catagorise it as crap. However it is what Russian now ask their car producers build. Cheap and simple car that will not need much of import components. In a way, it is like what USSR done before, but Russian hoping for more bigger production run to replace imports. After all if Iran still can produce cars with 90's tech for their domestic demand, why can not Russia doing the similar thing with tech from a decade ago.

As automotive production data in H1 this year come out, it is shown depress automotive production:

Russia’s Car Manufacturing Collapses by 97% in May - The Moscow Times

Auto production in Russia has slowed to a crawl after major automakers exited and Western governments imposed debilitating sanctions on Moscow in response to its invasion of Ukraine. Russia manufactured 3,700 cars in May, 97% fewer than the same month last year, the country’s statistics agency...

www.themoscowtimes.com

However if we see the drop in Truck and Bus not as depresed as Car. This shown their commercial sector and logistics still not depress as much as previously Western politicians hoping. It will remain to be seen on their Car production retooling strategy work. Making more model that more suitable with domestics supplied materials (and perhaps some from China). However this is going to shown that Russian domestics demand for foreseable future will not be supply by same standard products as they use to have from Western Imports before.

This in the end price for economics decoupling by Russian to the West. On the other hand West going to do the same decoupling with Russian imports. This what market expect at least will take 2022 and 2023 for the adjustment to this decoupling be made.

 

[Ananda]

How long they can keep this up and how long will it take for them to adjust to different markets and paying schemes is an open question, considering that whole worlds economy is (according to some) tethering on the edge of a major economic crisis, who knows when will we be able to talk about sustainable growth in Russia or anywhere else.

Put this video as CNBC talking to some market analysts that are quite Critical to US Fed. Perhaps they're right many in Western regulators consists with those with fancy academics degree, but not those with actual market management experience.

What I'm going to talk is Trade War with Russia is part of 'Black Swan' effect, however it is not totally Black Swan (unlike COVID) as West actually have the control on how far trade war they want to conduct with Russia and the timing.

The part of timing is what in market quite critical toward the regulators and politicians. US not the only major economies that pumping the money supply in to the economy during COVID crisis to soften the blows. Thus it is predicted actually some reason inflationary push will happen when recovery begin to happen in 2021 due to gap of available money in the economy and supply of products that need adjustment to be provided.

However when most collective West (as major economies) still on that inflationary situation, adding another inflationary factor is not advisable from any economics theory there is (if one want to see on academic theory), or any market historical practice before. Making trade war with one your biggest energy supplier on that already existing inflationary condition, will increase inflationary factor significantly, as energy prices is one of major inflationary calculation.

This's what the market practitioner even in the West warned the politicians. However the politicians seems want to hear more from those academic pundits that many shown the effect will not be significant for the Collective West especially, as Russia is just a small economy. Well they're just relatively "small" economy to collective west, but small economy that hold big factor on energy market.

So how long this's adjustment going to take, as you have put, it is open question. However so far the market prediction for two years adjustment seems still on the track. Whatever it is, Western Political leadership make big timing calculation mistakes when they're doing this hasty trade war. So if some of them being punished by their constituents, well it is part of the game.

 

[ngatimozart]

You know, I think I am done here. I have a degree in economics from a top 30 university in the US and top 100 in the world. This whole "he's been around forever so he must know more" is just dumb. Seniority is one of the worst ways possible to establish knowledge and expertise. I have been posting very occasionally for years but reading regularly and I have to say the quality of posts on here is getting much worse year by year, There are multiple links nearly every day that are just crap. time to find another forum among the thousands on the internet.

I'll check posts and messages for a few days in case anyone has any questions about the paper I posted.

Adios

That's your choice, but a lot of us don't understand the complexities of economics and we do like to use the expertise of SME's that we are aware of. If you don't tell us that you have expertise in these areas then we don't know.

 

[Twain]

That's your choice, but a lot of us don't understand the complexities of economics and we do like to use the expertise of SME's that we are aware of. If you don't tell us that you have expertise in these areas then we don't know.

I've told you personally twice now in this very thread. Your getting to be a very small club here with lots of crap posts and lots with zero to no credibility.

Supposedly this place doesn't allow propaganda yet it definitely matters who posts it. Patrick lancaster is nothing more than a propagandist with zero credibility who feeds off the misery of others and he's been posted here multiple times. Hell he works for RT which supposedly is banned here but it keeps popping up too. Wanna know why lancaster always posts his videos on youtube? so he can monetize it. I refused to click on it because I refuse to put any money in his pocket. Did he even ask for money to be donated to him in the video? He does everywhere else.

Feanor actually posted a link that said Kherson was attacked by 12 missiles and all 12 were shot down and with no evidence, no picture, no video and (wait for it) all 12 conveniently fell into the river so there is no wreckage to verify it. Totally believable LOLOL

As was said by several people who left, this is nothing more than a pro putin site in disguise with rules that only apply to some people

 

[Karl Franz]

However if we see the drop in Truck and Bus not as depresed as Car. This shown their commercial sector and logistics still not depress as much as previously Western politicians hoping. It will remain to be seen on their Car production retooling strategy work. Making more model that more suitable with domestics supplied materials (and perhaps some from China). However this is going to shown that Russian domestics demand for foreseable future will not be supply by same standard products as they use to have from Western Imports before.

Interestingly enough, some Russian enterprises are going to benefit during decoupling from the West due to lack of competition with foreign brands. If they don't fall into complacency (which is the most likely outcome) they could build on this foundation and with the help from resources that China can provide challenge in other markets (EEU comes to mind).

This will in turn increase Russia's dependency on China, which I am sure they would like to avoid, but at this point I don't think they have much of a choice. The balancing game between the great powers is coming to an end and recognizable camps are starting to form. Russia is going to have to accept being a lesser partner in this relationship.

Put this video as CNBC talking to some market analysts that are quite Critical to US Fed. Perhaps they're right many in Western regulators consists with those with fancy academics degree, but not those with actual market management experience.

What I'm going to talk is Trade War with Russia is part of 'Black Swan' effect, however it is not totally Black Swan (unlike COVID) as West actually have the control on how far trade war they want to conduct with Russia and the timing.

The part of timing is what in market quite critical toward the regulators and politicians. US not the only major economies that pumping the money supply in to the economy during COVID crisis to soften the blows. Thus it is predicted actually some reason inflationary push will happen when recovery begin to happen in 2021 due to gap of available money in the economy and supply of products that need adjustment to be provided.

However when most collective West (as major economies) still on that inflationary situation, adding another inflationary factor is not advisable from any economics theory there is (if one want to see on academic theory), or any market historical practice before. Making trade war with one your biggest energy supplier on that already existing inflationary condition, will increase inflationary factor significantly, as energy prices is one of major inflationary calculation.

This's what the market practitioner even in the West warned the politicians. However the politicians seems want to hear more from those academic pundits that many shown the effect will not be significant for the Collective West especially, as Russia is just a small economy. Well they're just relatively "small" economy to collective west, but small economy that hold big factor on energy market.

So how long this's adjustment going to take, as you have put, it is open question. However so far the market prediction for two years adjustment seems still on the track. Whatever it is, Western Political leadership make big timing calculation mistakes when they're doing this hasty trade war. So if some of them being punished by their constituents, well it is part of the game.

As far as economic policy, it's been very sketchy to say the least. After 14 years of 0, or near 0, interest rates, which is bad enough in itself, they decided to double the money supply in two year time period during pandemic restrictions which is unprecedented and has led to huge inflation pressure. And to top it all of, they started a trade war with the major supplier of energy to the world markets. I don't know who's making major policy decisions, but they are down right entering suicidal territory.

It's becoming obvious that Europe can't manage without Russian energy resources, there are simply not enough supplies currently on the world markets. Many Middle Eastern states have been approached to increase supply to Europe but they have very limited capacity to increase production, and redirecting supplies meant for Asia will surrender their market shares there to Russians, which could be even worse from European point of view, providing Russia secure sources of revenue for a foreseeable future.

Some sort of a deal will have to be made, but what it looks like in current geopolitical conditions, it's very difficult to predict if it is at all possible. One thing that has been on my mind, which would allow some sort of restoration of relations, would be if Putin doesn't run in 2024. If he could finish a war with victory (whatever that looks like) and then make a "sacrifice" and let someone else take over, he would be putting big pressure on European governments to normalize relations especially if they are suffering economic hardships, while still going down in history as one of the more/most successful leaders of Russia considering what the situation looked like in the country when he took over.

 

[John Fedup]

Whether Putin runs or not in 2024 doesn’t matter, he will be in charge, totally. Anything less would be fatal to him.

 

[Feanor]

I've told you personally twice now in this very thread. Your getting to be a very small club here with lots of crap posts and lots with zero to no credibility.

Supposedly this place doesn't allow propaganda yet it definitely matters who posts it. Patrick lancaster is nothing more than a propagandist with zero credibility who feeds off the misery of others and he's been posted here multiple times. Hell he works for RT which supposedly is banned here but it keeps popping up too. Wanna know why lancaster always posts his videos on youtube? so he can monetize it. I refused to click on it because I refuse to put any money in his pocket. Did he even ask for money to be donated to him in the video? He does everywhere else.

Feanor actually posted a link that said Kherson was attacked by 12 missiles and all 12 were shot down and with no evidence, no picture, no video and (wait for it) all 12 conveniently fell into the river so there is no wreckage to verify it. Totally believable LOLOL

As was said by several people who left, this is nothing more than a pro putin site in disguise with rules that only apply to some people

Wasn't Lancaster's own footage used to disprove a false flag? You're welcome to engage in discussion and evaluate material yourself. If you disagree with something that gets posted, you can say so. If you disregard material posted because you find it untrustworthy, but don't respond to it in any tangible way, it's rather strange to then take issue with the material getting posted in first place.

Sources like Fox news, RT, or certain Chinese newspapers, that are defacto propaganda vehicles for certain entities are inherently suspect. Using their claims for the truth of the matter asserted is not accepted. However if they are providing video or photo materials, refusing to engage with the material is rather silly. It's fine to view it and state that you find it untrustworthy, but in my opinion it's at least worth viewing. Case in point, I have a link (I haven't posted it yet, it's in the pipeline) from the Rosgvardiya (as far as I can tell) official telegram where they claim to have found a batch of abandoned Ukrainian vehicles. In the photo you can see a T-72 with K-5 tiles on the turret. Normally I would disregard Russian officialdom, but in this case it will get posted. Why? To illustrate a blatant falsehood. Only Russia is using T-72s with K-5 tiles (well Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Syria, but only Russia in this war).

 

[Ananda]

Russia is going to have to accept being a lesser partner in this relationship.

That's no doubt about that. Putin basically by severing relationship with collective west, has no choice to leverage Russia future with East. That's with China. Russia perhaps can play some card with India to balance, but India despite all her potential not in the same league yet with China, and not for at least a decade or two. So I"m quite certain Russia and China relationship is destined to be Junior and Senior partnership whether Russia like it or not.

Many Middle Eastern states have been approached to increase supply to Europe but they have very limited capacity to increase production, and redirecting supplies meant for Asia will surrender their market shares there to Russians, which could be even worse from European point of view, providing Russia secure sources of revenue for a foreseeable future.

Agree that's why sometime ago in this thread, I already stated what in market call switching market possitioning. Thus collective west hope for Global market shun Russian Hydrocarbon is simply will not happen. The supply is finite



Put this graphic for online visual capitalist just to shown what OPEC already told market sometime ago. There's no way anybody can replace Russia in hydrocarbon market, it is just there's no other source of supplies that can cover it. Russia is just too big a player on hydrocarbon market. Therefor this scheme by G7 on capping Russian hydrocarbon price, is also have market buffle on how G7 expect to do it (put the article on this couple pages back). Will be interesting to see how this game going to develop.

One thing that has been on my mind, which would allow some sort of restoration of relations, would be if Putin doesn't run in 2024

However the West will know if say Putin step down, it will be toward his own people (perhaps back to Medvedev for example). So as @John Fedup post, Putin will be still in charge. Even if Putin really steping down and let someone else from his circle taking over, it will be the same Russian power circles.

Bad Blood already happen between Collective West and Russia, whatever the result in Ukraine War will be. Personally I will be surprise if any semblence of normalcy between them can happen within this decade. Even if some in West like Germany or Hunggary for example keep business relationship with Russia later on, it will be not as same as before.

 

[Karl Franz]

Bad Blood already happen between Collective West and Russia, whatever the result in Ukraine War will be. Personally I will be surprise if any semblence of normalcy between them can happen within this decade. Even if some in West like Germany or Hunggary for example keep business relationship with Russia later on, it will be not as same as before.

Although I do agree we are not going back to normal, we are not going to see military bands and other honors that usually follow diplomatic visits for some time, I was referring more to trade and business relations that in my opinion are necessary for both sides. I don't think that Europe is going to fall on its own sword by sacrificing its economical well-being for a geopolitical objective nor do I believe that Russians are going to refuse shipments of vital resources if some sort of understanding could be made.

To borrow a rather infamous quote: "Necessity knows no law."
There are things that both sides need from each other that they are unlikely to secure elsewhere. In Europe's case it's energy, food, fertilizer, and various raw materials that Russia produces, and in Russia's case it's access to capital and technology that are necessary for its development.

However the West will know if say Putin step down, it will be toward his own people (perhaps back to Medvedev for example). So as @John Fedup post, Putin will be still in charge. Even if Putin really steping down and let someone else from his circle taking over, it will be the same Russian power circles.

I am aware that whether Putin steps down for real or not, the Russian political course will not change and Putin's successor could be even more anti-Western and hard to deal with, however the very act of stepping down could be portrayed as a major Western victory and allow for diplomacy to take a more serious role.

As stated above both sides need for trade and business relations to be restored and Putin's supposed or real abdication could give an "excuse" needed for the process of restoring these ties to begin. Restoring trust and greater corporation between sides would take a much bigger effort and even then it's questionable how far they get.

 

[Ananda]

There are things that both sides need from each other that they are unlikely to secure elsewhere. In Europe's case it's energy, food, fertilizer, and various raw materials that Russia produces, and in Russia's case it's access to capital and technology that are necessary for its development.

True, and that's the logical (business sense) thing to do. That's why it is still 50:50 on any possibility, and it's in the market being call billion euros bet on where it is going. Nobody knows in certain how it is going to work.

Let's say Russia going to follow through on being back as reliable suppliers for those commodities (big question on that), how far will Russian can hope Euro going to open supply on tech (another big question) ? Will EU going to let ASML to supply Rostec semiconductor ambition with their EUV even DUV Litography machine ? This's just an example on one point.

I don't think Euro will going to open more those that can be call dual tech purpose, which semiconductor can be fall on. Thus in the essence what limitations on business exchange going forward is the big question. If Euro hold something, will Russia also hold something back?

 

[ngatimozart]

I've told you personally twice now in this very thread. Your getting to be a very small club here with lots of crap posts and lots with zero to no credibility.

Supposedly this place doesn't allow propaganda yet it definitely matters who posts it. Patrick lancaster is nothing more than a propagandist with zero credibility who feeds off the misery of others and he's been posted here multiple times. Hell he works for RT which supposedly is banned here but it keeps popping up too. Wanna know why lancaster always posts his videos on youtube? so he can monetize it. I refused to click on it because I refuse to put any money in his pocket. Did he even ask for money to be donated to him in the video? He does everywhere else.

Feanor actually posted a link that said Kherson was attacked by 12 missiles and all 12 were shot down and with no evidence, no picture, no video and (wait for it) all 12 conveniently fell into the river so there is no wreckage to verify it. Totally believable LOLOL

As was said by several people who left, this is nothing more than a pro putin site in disguise with rules that only apply to some people

We attempt to look at both sides and you don't bother to mention how often that we have been accused of being pro Ukrainian. If we don't fit with some peoples political worldview then that's their problem not ours. We aren't here as a pro US, or pro Chinese, or pro Russian, or pro West, or pro Ukrainian hoorah yeeha flag waving band wagon. If you want that type of thing there are plenty of other sites on the interweb for that. It's your choice whether you stay or go; no-one is forcing you to do either.

WRT to your remarks about @Feanor and his posts. He posts them to bring balance and give an alternate view. For a fact I know he doesn't agree with all of them but he does it to provide that balance. I don't agree with all that he posts and says and I know for a fact that he doesn't agree with all that I post and say. But between us we do attempt to provide a balance. Then we have non western posters like @OPSSG @Ananda @STURM and others who offer different perspectives as well. The world doesn't revolve around the US no matter how many within it think so. Nor does it revolve around Moscow, Beijing, London, Kyiv, Ottawa, Wellington, or Canberra.

 

[Friendly Stranger]

Wasn't Lancaster's own footage used to disprove a false flag? You're welcome to engage in discussion and evaluate material yourself. If you disagree with something that gets posted, you can say so. If you disregard material posted because you find it untrustworthy, but don't respond to it in any tangible way, it's rather strange to then take issue with the material getting posted in first place.

The problem with guys like Patrick Lancaster, Graham Phillips and John Dougan is that there's a chance they'll create sympathizers/collaborators in the West. Sympathizers/collaborators in the West are a very real and serious threat to our national security.


The wall of shame as I like to call it:

Graham Phillips

Mariupol Soviet Tank Chasing with Graham Phillips

Patrick Lancaster

From a video with Lancaster

Really not liked on reddit.


https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/twssnn

John Dougan

https://www.youtube.com/c/JohnMarkDougan-BadVolf/videos

In the video, which was shared by Russia Today journalist Roman Kosarev on the Telegram messaging app on Friday, Mr Dougan nods his head and smiles throughout the rendition.

He then applauds once Mr Aslin has stopped singing and tells him the performance was “amazing”.

Ukraine war: British fighter filmed singing Russian national anthem after being captured by Putin’s forces

A British man who was captured by Vladimir Putin's forces in Ukraine has been filmed singing the Russian national anthem

tribunetimes.co.uk

"I feel like I've been betrayed by Ukraine" 45 min

They broke him.

Did I REALLY force Aiden Aslin to stand, sing the Russian hymn, as being reported by Western Media?




Ukraine hunts for traitors in the east

Fear and suspicion as Ukraine hunts for traitors in the east

As Ukraine hunts for traitors, the fear of Russian infiltration extends east, far from the capital.

www.reuters.com

From President Volodymyr Zelensky downwards, Ukrainian authorities have reserved special loathing for alleged collaborators, or Gauleiters as they are often dubbed. Gauleiters were district officials in Nazi Germany.
Zelensky said in April that "justice will be restored. Everyone who became a Gauleiter can register to live somewhere in Rostov-on-Don," in Russia.

Traitor or hero? Ukraine finds it tough to identify Russian collaborators | CNN

A reckoning is underway in Ukraine, with prosecutors building dozens of cases against Ukrainians accused of collaborating with Russian forces. The Interior Ministry says there are already more than 500 cases being investigated.

edition.cnn.com

Vandalism of sign commemorating victims of communism is 'deplorable', Ukrainian Canadian Congress states

Vandalism of sign commemorating victims of communism is 'deplorable', Ukrainian Canadian Congress states

Vandals spray-painted 'Communism will win' and three hammers and sickles — the symbol for communism — across the sign at the proposed Memorial to the Victims…

nationalpost.com

The Ukrainian Canadian Congress has condemned the “desecration” of a sign at the entrance to a memorial being built to honour the memory of the millions who died at the hands of communism.

Article content
Vandals spray-painted “Communism will win” and three hammers and sickles — the symbol for communism — across the sign at the proposed Memorial to the Victims of Communism in Ottawa.

The Ukrainian Canadian Congress (UCC) tweeted a photo of the damaged sign.

“That this site was desecrated through this act of hate is unacceptable and deplorable, and an insult to the hallowed memory of the millions of innocent victims of communism,” said a UCC statement.

“This is a reminder to us all of the need for further education and awareness in our own society about the evil and crimes of Communism.”

Ihor Michalchyshyn, the executive director and CEO of the UCC, said, “It’s very shocking. It’s disturbing that it was done on Canada Day. It’s disgraceful this kind of monument would be a target for people.”





This article is more than 7 years old

Ukraine bans Soviet symbols and criminalises sympathy for communism

Ukraine bans Soviet symbols and criminalises sympathy for communism

New laws also honour controversialist nationalist groups that allied with the Nazis for part of second world war

www.theguardian.com

Decommunization in Ukraine

Decommunization in Ukraine - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Extracts from Putin's speech on Ukraine

"As a result of Bolshevik policy, Soviet Ukraine arose, which even today can with good reason be called 'Vladimir Ilyich Lenin's Ukraine'. He is its author and architect. This is fully confirmed by archive documents ... And now grateful descendants have demolished monuments to Lenin in Ukraine. This is what they call decommunisation. Do you want decommunisation? Well, that suits us just fine. But it is unnecessary, as they say, to stop halfway. We are ready to show you what real decommunisation means for Ukraine."

ON UKRAINIAN STATEHOOD

"Ukraine never had a tradition of genuine statehood."

Extracts from Putin's speech on Ukraine

Following are extracts from a televised speech on Monday by Russian President Vladimir Putin on Ukraine:

www.reuters.com

NATO’s “provocation” of Russia was never about threatening Russia’s security interests — the idea that Russia, a geographically massive nuclear power, is at risk of being invaded is absurd. Rather, it simply challenged Russia’s sense of ownership over eastern Europe. Russia’s calls to respect its “sphere of influence” have always been predicated on the idea that eastern Europe does not have the right to defend itself from Russian domination and that eastern Europeans have no genuine right to self-determination.

Adam Zivo: Putin finally unmasks his imperial ambitions

The real rationale for the Ukraine invasion was not 'denazification,' but a naked hunger for conquest

nationalpost.com

Why Ukraine’s Fight Against Corruption Scares Russia

The country’s democratization and ongoing efforts to fight entrenched graft and cronyism are a threat to Putin’s model of governance.

foreignpolicy.com

Vladimir Putin: The rebuilding of ‘Soviet’ Russia
Published
28 March 2014

In just four years, Putin had crushed Chechnya, reined in the free media and the oligarchs, gained a parliament that would do whatever he wanted, and shown that Russia had a strong voice in international affairs.

"He says what he thinks and does what he says - at least much more than probably any other contemporary politician or statesman. Western analysts and politicians always try to uncover some sort of false bottom in his statements, when there often isn't one. That applies to many other Soviet leaders including Stalin - at least in the run-up to and during WW2," says Dmitry Linnik, London bureau chief of the Voice of Russia radio.

"He is a nationalist - in the federal 'Russian', not ethnic 'Russian', sense of the word. That is his biggest driving force, I think - not hunger for power or personal ambition."

But Freeland disagrees.

"I think he has taken a series of decisions, quite rationally from his narrow personal point of view, that this kind of autocratic regime gives him the most personal power and personal wealth," she says.

There was one thing missing to make the world of his childhood complete: an ideology.

Putin restored some Soviet symbols. He brought back the Soviet national anthem and Soviet emblems, and praised the Soviet triumph in World War Two. But he embraced pre-Soviet themes too. He befriended the Russian Orthodox Church, and name-checked anti-Soviet philosophers like Ivan Ilyin, whose remains he had repatriated to Russia and buried with honour.

Vladimir Putin: The rebuilding of ‘Soviet’ Russia

The world was stunned when Russia invaded Crimea, but should it have been, asks author and journalist Oliver Bullough.

www.bbc.co.uk

Army boots West Point grad who touted communist revolt

The images Spenser Rapone posted on Twitter from his West Point graduation were intentionally shocking: In one, the smirking cadet opens his dress uniform to expose a T-shirt with a blood-red image of socialist icon Che Guevara.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[ngatimozart]

Although I do agree we are not going back to normal, we are not going to see military bands and other honors that usually follow diplomatic visits for some time, I was referring more to trade and business relations that in my opinion are necessary for both sides. I don't think that Europe is going to fall on its own sword by sacrificing its economical well-being for a geopolitical objective nor do I believe that Russians are going to refuse shipments of vital resources if some sort of understanding could be made.

To borrow a rather infamous quote: "Necessity knows no law."
There are things that both sides need from each other that they are unlikely to secure elsewhere. In Europe's case it's energy, food, fertilizer, and various raw materials that Russia produces, and in Russia's case it's access to capital and technology that are necessary for its development.

Qatar and Germany have signed a deal for energy which will replace Germany's reliance on Russia. Germany, Qatar sign energy partnership agreement | Oil and Gas News | Al Jazeera. The Europeans are also looking at increasing gas supply from Nigeria once Nigeria reopens the Trans Niger pipeline at the end of August after it has improved security in the Niger Delta EU looks to replace gas from Russia with Nigerian supplies | Reuters. Fertiliser and food can be sourced elsewhere as well, albeit as at cost. For example Australian grain producers would be wanting a more stable and secure market than their Chinese one.

I am aware that whether Putin steps down for real or not, the Russian political course will not change and Putin's successor could be even more anti-Western and hard to deal with, however the very act of stepping down could be portrayed as a major Western victory and allow for diplomacy to take a more serious role.

Putin willingly step down He'll either be forcibly removed from office or die on the job. Most likely the two will occur at the same time. I can't see him stepping down / replaced seen as a western victory at all. Some idiot pollies (politicians) media talking heads, and journos (journalists) will claim it as such, but that would be far from the truth. It will be because he failed. The victory is when Ukraine is fully sterilised of Putin's infection and reverts to it's pre 2014 borders.

As stated above both sides need for trade and business relations to be restored and Putin's supposed or real abdication could give an "excuse" needed for the process of restoring these ties to begin. Restoring trust and greater corporation between sides would take a much bigger effort and even then it's questionable how far they get.

Even when Putin goes, the present Russian aggressive behaviour is most likely to continue unless there is complete regime change in Moscow and realistically that is unlikely to happen. The only group within Russia capable of overthrowing the current government is the military and they don't have any real incentive to do so because they have done well out of Putin's government. Plus the mid level and senior officers are corrupt and Putin has files on them recording the bribes and corruption and they know he has. So it's not in their professional and private interests to kill the golden goose. If someone else or another group decided to eliminate Putin, the military may very well decide that discretion is the better part of valour and remain in its barracks.

Russia is changing its economic focus from the west to the east with the INSTC Is the INSTC Russia’s new economic escape route? | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera. India is a very large market and it makes good economic sense for Russia to break into it. The new route also has significant advantages. This along with an increase of trade with the PRC would replace a significant amount of its trade with the west. It is also pushing into Africa at the moment. Russian FM Lavrov has just undertaken a trip through Africa drumming up support for Russia in its war against Ukraine and its opposition to the sanctions that the West have put on it. Lavrov denigrates West’s stance towards Africa on Ethiopia visit | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera. Many African nations have historical ties with Russia going back to the decolonisation and independence struggles during the second half of the 20th Century. It is noted that many African nations have remained neutral in the Russo - Ukrainian War.

The CCP/PRC has been pushing for the last few years to have the yuan recognised as a benchmark trading currency on par with the US$ and so far this has been rejected internationally. It also wants to establish an international banking and financial clearance system similar to SWIFT trading in yuan instead of US$ by passing both SWIFT and the US$ to avoid US sanctions on using the US$ and SWIFT. Russia, Iran, Venezuela, and some other nations would probably take advantage of this system which would remove their vulnerability to US and western sanctions. If this does succeed then US and western sanctions against Russia become impotent.

 

[Friendly Stranger]

Putin willingly step down He'll either be forcibly removed from office or die on the job.

lol he's no longer president but ruler for life!

Russia Party Wants Putin Title Changed From 'President' to 'Ruler' (businessinsider.com)

 

[Feanor]

lol he's no longer president but ruler for life!

Russia Party Wants Putin Title Changed From 'President' to 'Ruler' (businessinsider.com)

Whatever his actual title, this is the unfortunate reality. It was a poor decision both on his part and on the part of his supporters in government economic structures.

The problem with guys like Patrick Lancaster, Graham Phillips and John Dougan is that there's a chance they'll create sympathizers/collaborators in the West. Sympathizers/collaborators in the West are a very real and serious threat to our national security.

I have a real problem with that approach. In a democratic society there should be freedom of speech and freedom of conscience. Treating people as threats on national security based on their sympathies with a certain cause is problematic. It's especially problematic when it comes to the messy situation in the Donbas. I have come across plenty of those who have little sympathy with Putin, yet would gladly (and often do) fight against Ukraine with weapons in hand. The situation is complex and there are many layers to it.

By simply saying anyone who sympathizes with a certain point of view is a threat to national security it brings back the stench of the Red Scare and of McCarthyism. At the end of the day the people should decide what they want and elect representatives to do that. Instead of elites who "guide" the nation in the right direction. And that means free access to information and the freedom to make up their own mind. If some day (yes I know this is basically impossible, bear with me) average Americans decide that they're not interested in supporting the oligarchs who run Ukraine and would prefer to strike a deal with Putin, the national security apparatus should not be allowed to control the flow of information to avoid this outcome. The people should have freedom of information and freedom of thought, freedom to make up their own opinions. Unfortunately, and not only on this issue, I should say not even mainly on this issue, but on many others, the direction seems to have reversed itself.

I don't want to wander too deep down this rabbit hole, and I dare say I've gone pretty deep already. But you can't have a democracy, and also direct public opinions from the shadows. The second fundamentally undermines the first.

 

[seaspear]

They could also address Putin as leader and require personal oaths of loyalty from the armed forces to him

 

[ngatimozart]

They could also address Putin as leader and require personal oaths of loyalty from the armed forces to him

Something like the oaths of allegiance to Hitler that the Wehrmacht had to take from 1935 onwards?

 

[Feanor]

They could also address Putin as leader and require personal oaths of loyalty from the armed forces to him

Something like the oaths of allegiance to Hitler that the Wehrmacht had to take from 1935 onwards?

I think this would require an ideological framework and this is something Russia distinctly lacks today. It's one of the major weaknesses of modern day Russia. It's not clear why one should fight and die for it other then general love for one's country.

 

[kato]

-

 

[kato]

From President Volodymyr Zelensky downwards, Ukrainian authorities have reserved special loathing for alleged collaborators, or Gauleiters as they are often dubbed. Gauleiters were district officials in Nazi Germany.

A Gauleiter was not a district official, but instead the head of a regional NSDAP chapter. It was actually a fairly high position, there were only about 43 concurrent such posts in Nazi Germany.

The Ukrainian use is related to Euromaidan narrative around Erich Koch, the German commissioner for Ukraine and Gauleiter of East Prussia. Ukrainian nationalists claim that Stalin - and after him Krushchev - postwar intentionally did not seek extradition of Koch from Poland, thus avoiding putting him on trial in Kyev and "depriving the Ukrainians of their just revenge". Outside of these circles it is considered fairly conspiracy theorist propaganda.

By calling collaborators "Gauleiters" Ukraine compares them to Koch, "seeking justice" against them for "their crimes against Ukraine".