Russia - General Discussion.

[Ananda]

First of all, this comparison debate coming after you say in your post that China and Russia future relationship will be like a "vassal" relationship. Which is quite baseless considering they are both much more in equal footing even in future, relative compare to US and much or the rest in collective west grouping.

China is much more 'rough' on their international diplomatic approach. Much rest of Asia knows that. However there are ways to negotiate with China. Which much of Asia knows also the approach will not be same with US.

cannot imagine a similar situation where the US would treat Norway like that.

However US also playing 'bully' if they need be to do. At least much of Asia knows that during decades of their relationship with US. US just doing more subtle way with combinations from different angles on economics, business and diplomatics. Will US will not react if Noble Committe give nobel price toward anti zionist middle east champion in future, as an example ? (Not a kind of joint noble peace price for both Israel and Palestinians). US that always actively tone down anti zionist movement as racist one. I'm sure US will behave differently if that happen.

Second of all, relationship govern by mutual benefits, but don't talk that size is not matter in the real world. Size does matter, and the big boys will always know how to play the tune toward their benefits. The matter is whether subtle or more direct.

Note: Norway-China vs Norway-US, I'm sorry it is can not be compare as relationship comparison. Norway is not Chinese allies, and China see the move from Nobel Committe as part of Western establishment try to meddle on Chinese internal affairs. Off course China react differently toward Norway compare US moves.

Like I said in my post, non US Western opinion will be offended if US and The Rest of Collective West relationship being call Master and Vassal. Then why Chinese and Russian relationship consider can be a vassal relationship? When in reality they are always more in equal footing relative compare toward US and the rest of Collective West.

If you don't like US and The Rest of Collective West unequal footing relationship (at least on Geopolitical power bargain), as Master and Vassal. Then don't judgement Russia and China or even others in opposite Collective West will be on Master-Vassal relationship.

On contrary they have more chances to be in equalisation relationship due to collective west push.

 

[Vivendi]

@Ananda, the "master-vassal" concept seems pretty much ingrained in Chinese culture and something they actively try to recreate: Troubled Waters: China Seeks Return to Vassal States in the South China Sea - The News Lens International Edition

Regarding Russia: I know you focus much on the "market forces" and the "rebalancing of the markets" but I think you underestimate a few other factors, including the huge costs imposed on Russia of the war in Ukraine, that will weaken Russia both militarily and economically over the next several years. Another factor I have mentioned previously is the "brain drain" from Russia, that has been ongoing even before the war, but accelerated dramatically after the war started. COVID-19 hit Russia harder than many realize, the Economist estimated 1 million dead Tracking covid-19 excess deaths across countries | The Economist ). The demography looked very bad even before the war Russia's Demography Makes War a Painful Bet for Putin (foreignpolicy.com) Russia will no doubt try to hide these weaknesses, however, they will still remain. And China will of course push to gain as much influence and leverage that they can get over Russia, and use that to their advantage.

 

[Ananda]

the "master-vassal" concept seems pretty much ingrained in Chinese culture and something they actively try to recreate:

That's your argument ? As if the master vassal concept is not ingrained also in capitalist western thinking. Exploitation is still there, the basic concept of market economy is still rooted back to the concept of capital exploitation.

Despite all the talk of equal opportunity of market forces, the idea still there. Any opportunities, any openings should be use to maximize capital forces. Don't lecture on Western democracy, reality is exploitation will be taken if opportunity arrise. That's human nature, whether it is on Western thinking, Chinese thinking, Russian, or any other cultures.

So all that argument are baseless and moot in the end. Relationship will be based on mutual benefit, but in the end each parties will maximize their own benefit. If they see their benefits still need mutual cooperation, then they will do it. Whether it is 'democrazy' or 'authoriterian' will not matter.

think you underestimate a few other factors, including the huge costs imposed on Russia of the war in Ukraine, that will weaken Russia both militarily and economically over the next several years. Another factor I have mentioned previously is the "brain drain" from Russia,

No I don't underestimate that. Read my posts in this thread, I always talk Russia will pay the costs but so does the west, especially Euro zone. Both will be weaken, while the rest of the world (including US and China) will try their best to shield themselves from the effect.

What I don't agree on your presumptuous idea that Russia will be Chinese Vassal. Because if your idea of Master and Vassal relationship due to unequal footing relationship as potentially China have upper hand toward Russia due to this war, then US and Eurozone relationship is already also Master and Vassal relationship , as it is actually more in unequal footing relative to Russia and China.

But off course you will be back to argument Collective West relationship is base on democratic value while Russia-China relationship is not. Thus the Western relationship will not have that, as West is base on equal democracy concept.

What that has to do on anything toward unequal footing relationship? That argument of democracy neglate exploitation is empty and baseless ones. Democracy or not, size matter, and big boys will gain more traction to dictate. Don't have any illusion that US has not doing that toward collective west relationship, especially on Geopolitical matters.

 

[swerve]

... China see the move from Nobel Committe as part of Western establishment try to meddle on Chinese internal affairs. ...

Which is one of many examples of China misinterpreting what happens in other countries because it projects its own way of doing things onto them. In China it is inconceivable that a body like the Nobel Committee could act independently. It is obvious to the Chinese that such a body must be closely supervised by, & obedient to, the government. They assume that any claims to the contrary are lies.

As I've said before, they don't understand.

 

[Vivendi]

Which is one of many examples of China misinterpreting what happens in other countries because it projects its own way of doing things onto them. In China it is inconceivable that a body like the Nobel Committee could act independently. It is obvious to the Chinese that such a body must be closely supervised by, & obedient to, the government. They assume that any claims to the contrary are lies.

As I've said before, they don't understand.

This may be correct, but I am not entirely convinced. It could also be that Chinese officials understand how it works in other countries, but that they just pretend not to understand. Perhaps they simply don't care. They still believe it's in their right to push other countries to accept China's demands. Maybe they don't consider it relevant to China how or why things happen in other countries.

 

[Feanor]

There has been much talk of Russia and China drawing near, and I think this is partially true, but the over-focus on this is driven by the traditional fear of this scenario. Little has been said of Russia drawing near to Iran, even though there is a deep existing relationship there. Russia and Iran were de-facto allies in Syria, Russia can supply Iran much in the way of advanced weapons in areas where Iran is weak, but Iran can provide Russia with both critical experience and assets in unmanned systems, air and sea. Iran also has a lot of experience of living with western sanctions, in much weaker circumstances then Russia. I think Russia will seek to diversify their foreign policy towards players like Iran, while hanging on to relationships with countries like India, Turkey, etc. China will definitely be a bigger partner for Russia, especially economically, but it's won't be Russia and China vs the world.

 

[John Fedup]

There has been much talk of Russia and China drawing near, and I think this is partially true, but the over-focus on this is driven by the traditional fear of this scenario. Little has been said of Russia drawing near to Iran, even though there is a deep existing relationship there. Russia and Iran were de-facto allies in Syria, Russia can supply Iran much in the way of advanced weapons in areas where Iran is weak, but Iran can provide Russia with both critical experience and assets in unmanned systems, air and sea. Iran also has a lot of experience of living with western sanctions, in much weaker circumstances then Russia. I think Russia will seek to diversify their foreign policy towards players like Iran, while hanging on to relationships with countries like India, Turkey, etc. China will definitely be a bigger partner for Russia, especially economically, but it's won't be Russia and China vs the world.

I agree, diversity is a positive for Russia. The same applies to many emerging nations, they will play to both geopolitical poles that are forming as a result of the Ukraine invasion. This would likely have happened over a much longer timeframe anyway.

 

[Ananda]

Which is one of many examples of China misinterpreting what happens in other countries because it projects its own way of doing things onto them.

It is not just problem from China side. US and West and in fact almost everyone perspective are clouded by their own judgement, base on their own experience and values. US throughout cold war, even on war on terror era, also doing misinterpretation on what others do base on what US own practice.

That's supposed to be the job of intelligence agencies on providing insight and prediction, why other parties doing and what's the meaning on that.

 

[swerve]

This may be correct, but I am not entirely convinced. It could also be that Chinese officials understand how it works in other countries, but that they just pretend not to understand. Perhaps they simply don't care. They still believe it's in their right to push other countries to accept China's demands. Maybe they don't consider it relevant to China how or why things happen in other countries.

I remember in the 1990s East Europeans who I was talking with scoffing at the idea that British MPs would not have bodyguards. Telling them that I'd been in a very small pub with an MP, where I knew everyone else present, or that I'd met the same MP & her boyfriend cycling in the countryside with nobody else around, didn't convince them. They pitied me for my naivety. To them, it was obvious that I just didn't understand that the MP's security would be able to hide from me, & people I'd known for years could secretly be guards.

These were highly educated, sophisticated, cosmopolitan people, e.g. a journalist with international experience (she spent some time in the USA) with who I had an affair, & a nuclear engineer who was working on bringing a local power plant closer to western standards. But they weren't able to break out of their backgrounds.

 

[Ananda]

India's getting around sanctions against Russia by using Asian currencies to buy Russian coal

Global trade is typically denominated in the US dollar, but sweeping sanctions have spurred countries still doing business with Russia to switch.

markets.businessinsider.com

An unknown Chinese merchant spends $376 million on 13 cargo ships for risky Russian oil transfers on the high seas, report says

The fleet represents the core of a new, high-risk transshipment hub for Russian crude off the west coast of Portugal.

markets.businessinsider.com

U.S.-Europe Oil Tankers Hit Blowout Day Rates | OilPrice.com

Rates for mid-sized oil tankers sailing from the U.S. Gulf of Mexico to Europe hit the $57,000-per-day level this week, a figure representing a 12X increase since January and a two-year high

oilprice.com

Disruptions on market create new adjustment.

First article shown increasing trend of non Western currencies (especialy non USD) being use to get around collective west financial market hurdle. Just many already predicted. On term on Global Trade it is still small. However on term of providing alternative payment system momentum, it could be just part of begining.

Second article shown how to circumstance another hurdle put forward by collective West market. Does this tankers are only use to transport Russian oil to China ? I have doubt of that, as first article also shown demand of Russian Energy now also coming from market that see potential discount from both the commodities and foreign currency value. Who cares if its not paid with USD through known channel, thus increase the logistics cost. The saving from discounted prices and not using USD systems can cover the differences.

Third article shown what collective west must pay on their market. All the talk from western pundits on how Russian must pay and already pay big costs, are clearly not shown reality that west also already paying big costs and are still increasing. So much for trade war to punish Russia (only) as Biden and EU leadership claims in the begining.

Market and trade are very relevant with defense and securities. Not looking on that aspect forgeting the history of why most wars were begin with. Disruptions on trade interest thus economics order are very well proven as big part of why wars happening throughout human history. That's why I put many of my posts related to that.

 

[ngatimozart]

An ISW article on the deepening strategic relationship between Russia and Iran. https://www.understandingwar.org/ba...-iran-double-down-their-strategic-partnership It makes for quite interesting and informative reading. The Iranians are now using the Russian money transfer system MIR instead of SWIFT and they are providing a transit system for Russian exports to India.

 

[Vivendi]

Two Russian MIG-31 fighters are suspected of having violated Finnish airspace in the Gulf of Finland this morning: Epäilty ilmatilaloukkaus Suomenlahdella

The jets were westbound (probably heading for Kaliningrad) and stayed in Finnish airspace for 2 minutes. An investigation has been launched.

I think the last time a violation was reported, was back in May: Russia Violates Finnish Airspace as Helsinki Mulls NATO - The Moscow Times

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Are Finnish planes not available for intercept and potentially a shoot-down if and when a breach occurs?

 

[Vivendi]

Are Finnish planes not available for intercept and potentially a shoot-down if and when a breach occurs?

Yes they are on QRA duty, but normally their "actions" are limited to shooting photos of the intruder. A blog post from 2016 on previous incidents, with some interesting info on the Finnish Air Force QRA procedures: https://corporalfrisk.com/2016/10/08/air-and-sea-traffic-in-the-gulf-of-finland-6-october/

If I understand it correctly, the incident today was actually in the same region as the ones described in the blog post from Corporal Frisk (off the coast of Porvoo)

(Corporal Frisk is BTW one of the best known (and IMO one of the best) defense bloggers from up North)

 

[seaspear]

How much time would Finland have had to detect and launch interception ? and if planes were to be engaged for breaches are there agreements in place that prevent escalation between N.A.T.O and Russian aircraft

 

[Ananda]

Sandiaga Sebut RI Bisa Beli Minyak Murah Rusia Pakai Rubel

Menurut Sandiaga, Rusia telah mengingatkan RI tak perlu takut diembargo oleh AS. Transaksi bisa dilakukan dengan Rubel.

www.cnnindonesia.com

One of Indonesian Jokowi's minister talk publicly on supporting buying discounted Russian oil. He acknowledge that there will be complication (thus adding costs) on procurement of Russian oil, due to collective Westerb sanction on payment system. However he claim that Russia already shown alternatives system on payment using direct Rubel and Customers currencies.

This further shown how Russia actively engaging new market as part of Market Switching adjustment. Russian moving to Asian market while Europe try to gain more supply from Middle East. This provide middle east with incentives to sell on more expensive market price toward more 'properous' Euro market, while Russia moving in to less 'prosperous' Asian market with discount price. Afterall Asian like discount.

I'm not going to say definetely Indonesia will move to Russian oil, as this minister is not the one that overside Energy or Finance. However this shown how non traditional Russian oil market in Asia, increasingly seriously contemplating on getting Russian oil.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

How much time would Finland have had to detect and launch interception ? and if planes were to be engaged for breaches are there agreements in place that prevent escalation between N.A.T.O and Russian aircraft

Finland is not NATO. Perhaps Finland intentionally chooses not to down any aircraft because a conflict with Russia before admission to NATO, would nullify its Article 5 rights.

• But a NATO country downing a breaching Russian aircraft is not unprecedented. And not necessarily dangerous either.
• Turkey downed a Russian warplane in 2015, and they became best buddies shortly after.

 

[Feanor]

Finland is not NATO. Perhaps Finland intentionally chooses not to down any aircraft because a conflict with Russia before admission to NATO, would nullify its Article 5 rights.

• But a NATO country downing a breaching Russian aircraft is not unprecedented. And not necessarily dangerous either.
• Turkey downed a Russian warplane in 2015, and they became best buddies shortly after.

Turkey in all likelihood has also had service members killed in Syria by Russian strikes. Turkey has a relationship with Russia based on mutually aligned interests in a few areas, and pure opportunism. Russia and Turkey have also been at the brink of a major war at least twice. Most countries don't choose to aggressively shoot down anyone who violates their airspace. And Turkey itself was *shocked* and *outraged* when Syria shot down a Turkish recon plane that spent iirc 2 hours in Syrian airspace? Erdogan iirc said something to the tune of "a violaiton this minor can't be a reason for a shootdown".

I don't think Turkey is a good example to refer to, especially when one considers desireable behavior from a NATO and EU member.

 

[Ananda]

Russia Confounds the West by Recapturing Its Oil Riches

Moscow is raking in more revenue than ever with the help of new buyers, new traders and the world’s seemingly insatiable demand for crude. “Nobody’s brave enough to embargo 7.5 million barrels a day of Russian oil and oil products.”

www.wsj.com

Most of the article under pay wall. However there's recording summary can be access. This article shown increasingly what many in the matket already predict. This trade war will cost both sides significantly, however market will adjust and market reallignment will happen.

Increasingly what Biden and EU leadership call of their (collective west) isolation drive to Russia as "International/Global" isolation, shown as "illusion". Russia energy resources just simply too big to ignore by much Global market. It is even remain to be seen if Collective West and their "close" allies can also really decoupling from Russian resources in near future (in the span of next three to five years), as many their politicians call.

The drive for alternative 'green' energy is the thing that many Collective West politicians put as way to cut Russia dependency. Something that many in market clearly 'doubtfull' whether collective west have enough resourcess to conduct massive investment on that area within this decade.

If "prosperous" collective west is being doubt able to conduct significant increase on massive investment to green energy (to cut dependencies to hydrocarbon) much earlier then plan, how about the rest of the world ? This is the question that shown global dependencies to hydrocarbon for next two decades will still be high, regardless those 'green' initiative political drive. Economics cost realities is is still the huge barrier to do that.

Until then the rich hydrocarbon resources owner that's include Russia (and the oil companies) still have time to gain significant margin from hydrocarbon. That's market realities and not political illusion.

 

[Ananda]

Mikhail Gorbachev: Last Soviet leader dies aged 91

The former president opened up the Soviet Union but failed to prevent its collapse in 1991.

www.bbc.com

RIP Michail Gorbachev. Whatever you think of him, the Euro Zone and Global situation will be much different, if he's not in helm of USSR. Will USSR survive Glasnost, if he manage more balance between political control and economic openess? Something like which Deng seems able to do that in China?

All now back to accademics contemplation and studies of 'what if' scenarios.