Russia - General Discussion.

[Sandhi Yudha]

Costs of war:

Russia is about to do the most Russia thing ever with its next space station

“Russia, meanwhile, will be left to carry on the legacy of the ISS, with all its problems.”…

arstechnica.com

That “thin gruel” bit at the very end is pretty great!


I also read that Russia lost a few spots in math and physics output, rolling down from 4th and 5th spot on the world stage in 2020 to 7 and 8, whichever was which, in 2025.


Probably belongs in this thread:

View attachment 54065

So, according to Budanov, Russia now has plans to occupy the Baltic States by 2027. So basically within the next 12 months. Really weird stuff. I am going to come back to this post in a year unless I forget (just like everyone else will, I am sure).

The strike on Poland should have logically come back in 2022-23, when significant equipment and materiel deliveries to Ukraine began. It makes no sense to strike Poland now.

Reuters posted an article citing a whole of 6 US intelligences sources saying that Russia not only wants to occupy all of Ukraine, but also other part of the continent that “belonged to the former Soviet Empire”. To note, the wording is really weird, the Soviet Empire. What belonged to it? The 15 republics (Moldova, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Ukraine, Belarus, Russia itself, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgiztan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tadzhikistan… am I forgetting anyone?) or are we talking about them heading all the way to Berlin? Regardless, seems like a disinformation campaign and a poorly worded one.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-intelligence-indicates-putins-war-aims-ukraine-are-unchanged-2025-12-19/

A little bit remarkable article.

Before the plans to construct a whole new own spacestation from scratch, the Russian Orbital Station, the plan was to seperate the latest three Russian modules on the ISS (the Nauka Multi-purpose Laboratory Module, MLM; the Science and Power Module, NEM; and the Prichal Node Module, UM) and restart their life as the future Russian station.

It is just weird to have suddenly the plan to reuse the oldest modules like Zarya and Zvezda.

 

[KipPotapych]

A little bit remarkable article.

Before the plans to construct a whole new own spacestation from scratch, the Russian Orbital Station, the plan was to seperate the latest three Russian modules on the ISS (the Nauka Multi-purpose Laboratory Module, MLM; the Science and Power Module, NEM; and the Prichal Node Module, UM) and restart their life as the future Russian station.

It is just weird to have suddenly the plan to reuse the oldest modules like Zarya and Zvezda.

Just another angle of what the war costs the country. Once a leader in space in space tech, now… There is a saying in Russia that came from an excellent satirical novel called The Twelve Chairs that goes “ears from a dead donkey” is what you get. Putin used the idiom a couple of times himself, once during the border demarcation with one the Baltic States (don’t recall which one). It basically means you get squat all, especially if the expectations were different. I think this is rather perfectly fitting in this particular case. “Thin gruel” used by the author of the article is, like I already mentioned, is pretty great use of language as well

People often say that there should be no rewarding the aggressor and some such. The reality is, Russia has paid and is paying through the nose for this war. This is just one consequential example, which also greatly affects the very image Putin has been trying to restore for so many years. And it actually worked before the invasion.

While Russia does still have some world leading research branches, it has been greatly affected by the war. Be it via forced end of cooperation, access to tech, lack of funds, etc. The war has real and significant consequences for the country. I guess it should be noted that we have been affected by this end of cooperation as well, no one should fool themselves about it, but it is nothing comparable to the Russian scientific community. I may write a post on the subject at some point.

While, in spite of some suggestions/convictions, the country can function for a very long time with the current state of the economy, the trend of decline in various knowledge, tech, and money intensive industries is only going to continue on its downward trajectory, if not steepen.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Just another angle of what the war costs the country. Once a leader in space in space tech, now… There is a saying in Russia that came from an excellent satirical novel called The Twelve Chairs that goes “ears from a dead donkey” is what you get. Putin used the idiom a couple of times himself, once during the border demarcation with one the Baltic States (don’t recall which one). It basically means you get squat all, especially if the expectations were different. I think this is rather perfectly fitting in this particular case. “Thin gruel” used by the author of the article is, like I already mentioned, is pretty great use of language as well

People often say that there should be no rewarding the aggressor and some such. The reality is, Russia has paid and is paying through the nose for this war. This is just one consequential example, which also greatly affects the very image Putin has been trying to restore for so many years. And it actually worked before the invasion.

While Russia does still have some world leading research branches, it has been greatly affected by the war. Be it via forced end of cooperation, access to tech, lack of funds, etc. The war has real and significant consequences for the country. I guess it should be noted that we have been affected by this end of cooperation as well, no one should fool themselves about it, but it is nothing comparable to the Russian scientific community. I may write a post on the subject at some point.

While, in spite of some suggestions/convictions, the country can function for a very long time with the current state of the economy, the trend of decline in various knowledge, tech, and money intensive industries is only going to continue on its downward trajectory, if not steepen.

Yes, science and space exploration are often one of the first victims during long conflicts/wars.

But i also made a mistake. It seems not only the latest three Russian modules on the ISS were planned for ОПСЭК/OPSEK, but also Zvezda (2000) and Poisk (2009).

 

[Ananda]

While, in spite of some suggestions/convictions, the country can function for a very long time with the current state of the economy, the trend of decline in various knowledge, tech, and money intensive industries is only going to continue on its downward trajectory, if not steepen.

The War is costing Russia for sure, but not crashing the economy as some in West hope for when they put more and more sanctions to Russia. As for RnD in space industry, it is already on declining mode even before the war.

The war and sanctions also force Russia to invest more with RnD toward commercial airplane supply chain development. Something that Russia neglected after USSR collapse. They also invest more on semiconductor RnD and development of their manufacturing development. Something that they also neglected after Soviet collapse.

In short it will have mix results on Russia RnD development. They have to relies on domestic development on certain area, but in the cost on something else. Space is image building for Putin, but in time of survival, I guess it is something that they have to slow down. Russia has to eat their ego, and join China space development of still want to be counted as leading space nation in future.

 

[KipPotapych]

Not sure where to put this, so I will put it here as it now relates to Russia more than anything.



Conspiracies are starting to pop up that the tanker is actually carrying weapons, some going as far as nuclear capable ballistic missiles (ie Cuba 2.0). I guess we may find out later what the truth is. I see it as Russia, perhaps, using their resources to state that there will be no messing around with their fleet (wether this one is actually theirs or not is irrelevant since it is now carrying the Russian flag). This issue seems to be quite urgent to them in the current environment.

The whole situation is rather bizarre (second time I am using this word today, which is bizarre on its own, lol). Reportedly the chase by the US coast guard has been going on for several days now and with their ingenuity (and I mean truly epic capabilities, with no puns intended at all in this case), it should have been over on day one (or two). But here we are.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Not sure where to put this, so I will put it here as it now relates to Russia more than anything.

View attachment 54115

Conspiracies are starting to pop up that the tanker is actually carrying weapons, some going as far as nuclear capable ballistic missiles (ie Cuba 2.0). I guess we may find out later what the truth is. I see it as Russia, perhaps, using their resources to state that there will be no messing around with their fleet (wether this one is actually theirs or not is irrelevant since it is now carrying the Russian flag). This issue seems to be quite urgent to them in the current environment.

The whole situation is rather bizarre (second time I am using this word today, which is bizarre on its own, lol). Reportedly the chase by the US coast guard has been going on for several days now and with their ingenuity (and I mean truly epic capabilities, with no puns intended at all in this case), it should have been over on day one (or two). But here we are.

Where started the Bella 1/Marinera crude oil tanker it's voyage? It is weird if they transport oil towards Russia, a large oil producer. Also the transportation of nuclear capable ballistic missiles towards Russia doesn't make sense. Is the escort to prevent confiscation of the ship, or does the ship transport conventional weapon systems like UAVs, or does it transport high value goods like microprocessors?

 

[KipPotapych]

^ It is allegedly empty. if I recall correctly, it was heading to Venezuela from… Iran? Not sure.

Either way, it appears the Americans did make it first to the vessel as it has now been seized.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-venezuela-oil-deal-angers-china-pushes-prices-down-2026-01-07/

Now we wait for the conspiracies to turn into realities, haha (highly unlikely, in my opinion).

 

[KipPotapych]

Well, nothing had yet been reported that I saw on the ships load, likely indicating it was empty, but now the plot “thickens”:







People do like themselves a good conspiracy theory, haha. It was reported from day one that the crew were Russian, Ukrainian, as well as Kazakh citizens. Not sure what is so surprising about the RU FM statements. Especially given the whole story of the chase and flag change and everything else.

I am curious what would have happened if the Russian fleet made it to the tanker before the US (assisted by the Brits, apparently).

Tobias Ellwood, a leading military analyst and former defence minister, said the seizure of the Marinera, previously named MV Bella 1, and Sophia marked a new phase in the grey war between Russia and the West, saying it was one with “muscular interventionism but without agreed rules of engagement”.

Seems like the war is coming out of the grey and picking up colour a bit. The Brits are, supposedly, set on escalating:

In a statement following the audacious at-sea capture, the Defence Secretary said: “The UK will continue to step up our action against shadow fleet activity to protect our national security, our economy, and global stability – making Britain secure at home and strong abroad.”

Imagine thinking that these actions will lead to global stability and make Britain more secure at home and, especially, abroad. That’s some delusional thinking right there.

Russia’s transport ministry said it had granted the Marinera, previously flagged in Guyana, a “temporary permit to sail under the Russian Federation flag” on Christmas eve.

It added that “no state has the right to use force against vessels duly registered in the jurisdictions of other states” under the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea.

Russia also urged the US should not hamper the return of Russian crew members to their country. But White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt suggested the crew could be brought to America for prosecution “if necessary”.

Looks to me like we are entering a new stage of the conflict, with no peace in sight in Ukraine.

The source for the above excerpts, via the archive:

https://archive.ph/xpSGh

On the whole concept of the “shadow fleet”. It is just a regular fleet of tankers, most of which are in rough shape, sailing the seas without the western insurance and registration because the West (or most of it) decided not to do business with the Russian Federation. None of the sanctions have any validity beyond the jurisdictions of those who imposed/joined them. One can impose secondary sanctions (to protect one’s economy, you know) and enforce them, but acting like some dudes off the coast of Somali is entirely different matter. Especially towards the opponent that has ways to retaliate and none of it certainly makes anyone safer and more secure. But we have what we have, rules based and all.

 

[concerned third party]

Especially towards the opponent that has ways to retaliate

The piracy point aside, which I agree with, and considering that the whole point of a shadow fleet is to conceal what's shipped where, I think it's a bit too early to say that this is (at least primarily) targeted at Russia.

There's just been a development on the matter.
US seizes fifth oil tanker linked to Venezuela, officials say

Even though the tanker was linked to Venezuela, it was sanctioned specifically for being part of Russia's oil trade:
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2777
Worth noting that one of the ships seized 2 days ago is mentioned in the linked article as well.

That said, given the US's own special operations in the region, I still think it's too early to conclude that the seizing was due to the ship smuggling Russian oil specifically. Collateral damage, of sorts?

No matter the initial objective, the whole thing sets a precedent and some of the Russian ships already have a military escort:
Осведомитель

 

[Beltrami2005]

Well, nothing had yet been reported that I saw on the ships load, likely indicating it was empty, but now the plot “thickens”:

View attachment 54127

View attachment 54128

View attachment 54129

People do like themselves a good conspiracy theory, haha. It was reported from day one that the crew were Russian, Ukrainian, as well as Kazakh citizens. Not sure what is so surprising about the RU FM statements. Especially given the whole story of the chase and flag change and everything else.

I am curious what would have happened if the Russian fleet made it to the tanker before the US (assisted by the Brits, apparently).

Tobias Ellwood, a leading military analyst and former defence minister, said the seizure of the Marinera, previously named MV Bella 1, and Sophia marked a new phase in the grey war between Russia and the West, saying it was one with “muscular interventionism but without agreed rules of engagement”.

Seems like the war is coming out of the grey and picking up colour a bit. The Brits are, supposedly, set on escalating:

In a statement following the audacious at-sea capture, the Defence Secretary said: “The UK will continue to step up our action against shadow fleet activity to protect our national security, our economy, and global stability – making Britain secure at home and strong abroad.”

Imagine thinking that these actions will lead to global stability and make Britain more secure at home and, especially, abroad. That’s some delusional thinking right there.

Russia’s transport ministry said it had granted the Marinera, previously flagged in Guyana, a “temporary permit to sail under the Russian Federation flag” on Christmas eve.

It added that “no state has the right to use force against vessels duly registered in the jurisdictions of other states” under the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea.

Russia also urged the US should not hamper the return of Russian crew members to their country. But White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt suggested the crew could be brought to America for prosecution “if necessary”.

Looks to me like we are entering a new stage of the conflict, with no peace in sight in Ukraine.

The source for the above excerpts, via the archive:

https://archive.ph/xpSGh

On the whole concept of the “shadow fleet”. It is just a regular fleet of tankers, most of which are in rough shape, sailing the seas without the western insurance and registration because the West (or most of it) decided not to do business with the Russian Federation. None of the sanctions have any validity beyond the jurisdictions of those who imposed/joined them. One can impose secondary sanctions (to protect one’s economy, you know) and enforce them, but acting like some dudes off the coast of Somali is entirely different matter. Especially towards the opponent that has ways to retaliate and none of it certainly makes anyone safer and more secure. But we have what we have, rules based and all.

Russian ships should not be allowed in european waters. Russia is an enemy entity to Europe. So their presence in the naltics, north sea and our atlantic as well as med regions hould be supressed. I dont see whre Spain for example profits from russian ships going through our waters near Gibraltar. Blocking Russian ships is in our interest and at same time russia can not do anything, our ships dont cross russian waters. Russia declared war on Europe and damaged our infrastructure again and again. There simply is no reason to allow ships connected to them cross our waters. We didnt allow ottoman ships in our waters back then and shouldnt allow russian ships now. One of the few things i agree with trump.

 

[Feanor]

The piracy point aside, which I agree with, and considering that the whole point of a shadow fleet is to conceal what's shipped where, I think it's a bit too early to say that this is (at least primarily) targeted at Russia.

There's just been a development on the matter.
US seizes fifth oil tanker linked to Venezuela, officials say

Even though the tanker was linked to Venezuela, it was sanctioned specifically for being part of Russia's oil trade:
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2777
Worth noting that one of the ships seized 2 days ago is mentioned in the linked article as well.

That said, given the US's own special operations in the region, I still think it's too early to conclude that the seizing was due to the ship smuggling Russian oil specifically. Collateral damage, of sorts?

No matter the initial objective, the whole thing sets a precedent and some of the Russian ships already have a military escort:
Осведомитель

Those aren't tankers part of the "shadow fleet". They're really doing support work for military or major strategic projects. Their traffic volume, and ships like them (the former Syrian express ships) are far fewer in number.

Russian ships should not be allowed in european waters. Russia is an enemy entity to Europe. So their presence in the naltics, north sea and our atlantic as well as med regions hould be supressed. I dont see whre Spain for example profits from russian ships going through our waters near Gibraltar. Blocking Russian ships is in our interest and at same time russia can not do anything, our ships dont cross russian waters. Russia declared war on Europe and damaged our infrastructure again and again. There simply is no reason to allow ships connected to them cross our waters. We didnt allow ottoman ships in our waters back then and shouldnt allow russian ships now. One of the few things i agree with trump.

I don't know when this happened or how it even would since Europe is a continent, and Russia is in Europe. I'm assuming you mean "EU", in which case, when did Russia declare war on them?

In general it would be a pretty major departure from existing standards and norms to ban civilian shipping with Russian flags from EU waters. And much of the so-called shadow fleet isn't flying Russian flags. So I don't know how much it would help. I also suspect you wouldn't be able to get a unanimous vote on a measure like that. There are many in Europe looking to move in the opposite direction.

 

[Beltrami2005]

Those aren't tankers part of the "shadow fleet". They're really doing support work for military or major strategic projects. Their traffic volume, and ships like them (the former Syrian express ships) are far fewer in number.

I don't know when this happened or how it even would since Europe is a continent, and Russia is in Europe. I'm assuming you mean "EU", in which case, when did Russia declare war on them?

In general it would be a pretty major departure from existing standards and norms to ban civilian shipping with Russian flags from EU waters. And much of the so-called shadow fleet isn't flying Russian flags. So I don't know how much it would help. I also suspect you wouldn't be able to get a unanimous vote on a measure like that. There are many in Europe looking to move in the opposite direction.

Russian officials again and again declared war on Europe. Medvedev threatens again and again to attack european capitals. Words matter and when such statements come from high ranking officials, its official. One can argue that medvedev can not be taken serious because alcoholism but then russia should not allow such people in high offices.

Russia has 'right to war' with NATO - Medvedev

The existing standards hold dictators in office and are pretty new. They have not proven to be very sustainable. In my opinion we absolutely should go back to the ways that actually worked. As i said, Spain gains absolute nothing from allowing russian ships through our waters. And its absolute irrelevant what direction other countries want (i guess you mean small ones like hungary or slovakia). They have no say about acess to the med.

Its in our absolute interest to have the russian regime collapse and if that helps, that methods should be used.

When you look into history, Spain did never allow ottoman ships to cross our waters. That was very effective back then.

 

[Feanor]

Russian officials again and again declared war on Europe. Medvedev threatens again and again to attack european capitals. Words matter and when such statements come from high ranking officials, its official. One can argue that medvedev can not be taken serious because alcoholism but then russia should not allow such people in high offices.

Russia has 'right to war' with NATO - Medvedev

The existing standards hold dictators in office and are pretty new. They have not proven to be very sustainable. In my opinion we absolutely should go back to the ways that actually worked. As i said, Spain gains absolute nothing from allowing russian ships through our waters. And its absolute irrelevant what direction other countries want (i guess you mean small ones like hungary or slovakia). They have no say about acess to the med.

Its in our absolute interest to have the russian regime collapse and if that helps, that methods should be used.

When you look into history, Spain did never allow ottoman ships to cross our waters. That was very effective back then.

I don't think a statement that Russia has a right to war equates to a declaration of war. But I suppose if Spain wants to interpret it that way, they could respond by declaring war on Russia or state that they consider themselves at war with Russia by virtue of Russia's statements via figures like Medvedev. I don't think this would go over well both with European partners and with regards to a direct confrontation with Russia. While the VMF has fallen quite a bit since the Soviet days, it's still a credible threat, and if this is unilateral, i.e. not a EU-wide decision, then Spain would have to go it alone. It's a strange view to take of the situation, and many kinds of hostile or adversarial relations can exist without descending into an actual war. But I suppose Spain could choose to operate that way. What happens when a Russian frigate armed nuclear hypersonics shows up at the entrance to the Mediterranean and cheerfully sails through, with launch tubes prepped and ready? Fire on it? A second "Cuban missile crisis" is unlikely over something like Venezuela. But a full on blockade of Russia in the Baltic and North Atlantic, and by extension the Mediterranean by a combination of European nations could certainly achieve that outcome.

 

[KipPotapych]

More on that vessel discussed above:



Allegedly, the crew consisted of 2 Russian, 17 Ukrainian, 6 Georgian, and 3 Iranian citizens. As opposed to Jay there, I highly doubt anyone will go to prison in America. Especially because my wild guess is that one of the Russians was the captain (the second likely being his second-in-command).

And people still keep making idiotic conclusions that have no relation to reality:



Saw a lot more of the similar lines, like “complete embarrassment for Russia”, etc. My take here is that the US spent a whole bunch of resources, probably multiples of the rust-bucket’s worth and having to engage the UK for help in order to end the chase before the Russian fleet got there. Because that would actually be embarrassing. I highly doubt they would ask for the UK’s assistance in today’s environment otherwise.

A thought here. While there is no reality exists where Russia could escort every vessel they have an interest in, they sure can put armed (military?) personnel for deterrence. Is that a thing in maritime laws as far as civilian navigation is concerned? I have no idea, but seems like a viable solution for the Russians that will probably solve the issue for them. Unless those whose territorial waters they enter have a problem with it. Again, I have no knowledge of the subject at all, so the idea may sound rather ignorant to those with better understanding of it.

Its in our absolute interest to have the russian regime collapse and if that helps, that methods should be used.

Some strong words from a guy whose country’s contributions to the efforts are close to a rounding error.



Spain also being, of course, the third, behind the other two countries sticking out on the same chart, Italy and France, bringing in Russian tourist by buckets. And I am not saying it is wrong at all, by the way, but the strength of the argument is not even remotely supported by reality, no?

I would also challenge the core of the argument that it is in Spain’s (or anyone’s, for that matter) (absolute, to boot!) interest to collapse the Russian regime. There are no indications whatsoever that anyone will be better off if that were to actually happen. Quite the opposite from my observation is the more likely outcome.

 

[Feanor]

More on that vessel discussed above:

View attachment 54138

Allegedly, the crew consisted of 2 Russian, 17 Ukrainian, 6 Georgian, and 3 Iranian citizens. As opposed to Jay there, I highly doubt anyone will go to prison in America. Especially because my wild guess is that one of the Russians was the captain (the second likely being his second-in-command).

And people still keep making idiotic conclusions that have no relation to reality:

View attachment 54139

Saw a lot more of the similar lines, like “complete embarrassment for Russia”, etc. My take here is that the US spent a whole bunch of resources, probably multiples of the rust-bucket’s worth and having to engage the UK for help in order to end the chase before the Russian fleet got there. Because that would actually be embarrassing. I highly doubt they would ask for the UK’s assistance in today’s environment otherwise.

A thought here. While there is no reality exists where Russia could escort every vessel they have an interest in, they sure can put armed (military?) personnel for deterrence. Is that a thing in maritime laws as far as civilian navigation is concerned? I have no idea, but seems like a viable solution for the Russians that will probably solve the issue for them. Unless those whose territorial waters they enter have a problem with it. Again, I have no knowledge of the subject at all, so the idea may sound rather ignorant to those with better understanding of it.



Some strong words from a guy whose country’s contributions to the efforts are close to a rounding error.

View attachment 54137

Spain also being, of course, the third, behind the other two countries sticking out on the same chart, Italy and France, bringing in Russian tourist by buckets. And I am not saying it is wrong at all, by the way, but the strength of the argument is not even remotely supported by reality, no?

I would also challenge the core of the argument that it is in Spain’s (or anyone’s, for that matter) (absolute, to boot!) interest to collapse the Russian regime. There are no indications whatsoever that anyone will be better off if that were to actually happen. Quite the opposite from my observation is the more likely outcome.

Theoretically Russia could induct the entire shadow fleet into the VMF, making them all Russian naval vessels. But in reality we haven't even gotten to the point where the US is really going after tankers carting Russian oil.

 

[KipPotapych]

^ That probably won’t work though because the VMF vessels cannot currently enter the Black Sea, for example. There are probably other restrictions as well that I cannot think of at the moment. Placing armed military personnel does seem to me a way to prevent any future incidents, especially in view of Britain’s plan to escalate I talked about previously. Probably the most inexpensive way to do ensure “freedom of navigation” too. On the other hand, would that have the same effect on crossing the Bosphorus? Not sure, doesn’t seem like it would (though I never really read the proper official paperwork on the restriction of movements or don’t remember what it says if I did read).

 

[KipPotapych]

Of course, Russia can also do this all day, every day:



And still have various ways to escalate not to our liking. This is probably the easiest way though due the theatre being on their home turf, though limited in scope.

 

[Beltrami2005]

I don't think a statement that Russia has a right to war equates to a declaration of war. But I suppose if Spain wants to interpret it that way, they could respond by declaring war on Russia or state that they consider themselves at war with Russia by virtue of Russia's statements via figures like Medvedev. I don't think this would go over well both with European partners and with regards to a direct confrontation with Russia. While the VMF has fallen quite a bit since the Soviet days, it's still a credible threat, and if this is unilateral, i.e. not a EU-wide decision, then Spain would have to go it alone. It's a strange view to take of the situation, and many kinds of hostile or adversarial relations can exist without descending into an actual war. But I suppose Spain could choose to operate that way. What happens when a Russian frigate armed nuclear hypersonics shows up at the entrance to the Mediterranean and cheerfully sails through, with launch tubes prepped and ready? Fire on it? A second "Cuban missile crisis" is unlikely over something like Venezuela. But a full on blockade of Russia in the Baltic and North Atlantic, and by extension the Mediterranean by a combination of European nations could certainly achieve that outcome.

There would be no direct confrontation with Russia since Russia has neither a fleet or land forces to reach Spain. Russia is a power in cataclysmic decline.

And infact the decline of the med to the russians is already in effect. Several ships were damaged and some even sunk pretty near our cost. Just one year ago a russian frighter loaded with cranes and reactor parts for Vladivostok was spectaculary destroyed and sunk right infront my hometown.

Keep in mind Spain (as most other coastal european nations) blocked russian ships and also confiscated many.

Russian ships had so many "accidents" infront ourh coast, that russian traffic into the med is basicly flatlined since a year. Russias puppet regime in syria collapsed. Russias black sea fleet is not existant anymore. So what you see as a theoretical scenario is already reality in the med. Now Russia also gets supressed in the atlantic.

The USA take a more direct approach. while we chose the "the sea is treacherous". Who knows what sinks russian ships at our waters? Freak waves? Giant Orcas? Ukraine? Pirates? Russia has not the strategic and tacitcal depth to find solutions or proves for this, so as you said, there are many stages of war.

To answer your question about a russian frigate entering our waters with weapons activated, there are procedures to deal with that. It would most likely end like Moskva when not answering calls to divert.

@KipPotapych Spain trains ukrainian soldiers, we send weapons and we also send tanks. That has nothing to do with tourists. Tourists are always welcome and infact they send money out and funnel it here. I have nothing against people.

We also have lots of russian mega yachts seized here, i think Spain is pretty much on top of seized russian ships xD

I believe in tit for tat. If russia wants it sure can confiscate also our ships entering their waters. So far this has not happened yet...because our ships dont go to their waters and they obviously lack the ability to strike us back because they lack the reach.