Yeah no worries, with you on that one MrC... actually it was more my feeble attempt at moving away from the ACF debate into a more immediately pressing concern... the much hyped C130J purchase. I'd be one of the first to say nostalgia has no place in an argument for an ACF. We certainly face an uncertain future that could make level 4 lock-down look like a long weekend at the beach.
To be honest I am really concerned that whilst Australia has had the foresight to read the international stage and invested heavily in the ADF, NZ has gone the opposite way and reduced core capabilities and ended-up with a perpertually under-manned NZDF...although many defence forces possibly experience the latter. I also think that this widening gap has pissed the Australian Govts off and is a key factor in the very clear divergence of the close ties our 2 countries have historically enjoyed.
What is particularly worrisome is there's no 1 NZ political beast that has allowed this... I will avoid any deeper discussion on that but utlimately when you look at the record of what each of the 2 main political parties has done to put their money where their mouth is, they are cut of very similar cloth....they merely differ in the scissors they use to cut that cloth. It goes back before the ACF was cut, to substantial budget cuts, deferred replacements, non-replacements even... it started in the 1980's really... although economic conditions of the time were an explanation. When more recent Govt surpluses have been a regular thing, no change occurred and that is where the real rot started to set in.
The NZDF's core combat capability has evolved to now largely encapsulate SAS; 5&6 Sqn; 2 Frigates... not a lot! Other than these 3 core capabilities (which due to fleet & personnel sizes etc could not efficiently maintain long-term in-theatre presence), the remainder of the NZDF will merely play a support role for the ADF or other allies... keeping belingerent small states in line etc. There are some useful support capabilities such as divers; hydrographers; aircraft refuellers; combat engineers and so on that that would be useful in a more 'modular' fashion that could easily slot in alongside ADF units... I'm not belittling those contributions as they can be a powerful enabler if done 'properly'.
However by & large we are now a small player and will be sent to the edge of the sandpit when the big kids get stroppy. I would love to see a 4 frigate Navy and at least 1 full squadron of fast-jets with intercept & strike capability, whilst a squadron of top-end attack helicopters deployed on one of 2 RNZN LHD to provide a ground-attack capability in South Pacific amphib Operations. As to what platform types, I'm not an expert... I have opinions on what types may suit, but there is no 1 answer and therefore I defer to experts.
The first thing is to have such a requirement identified... that's my concern. What will it take for NZ to see the light & head back to an ACF, or increase combat capabilities across the NZDF spectrum? Unfortunately I have a view that the answer is simply 'nothing'. In other words, the crap will hit the fan, most likely in the South China sea and/or across into the South Pacific, but it will remain at what the NZ Govt will consider a suitable physical distance, meaning it will be happy merely offering capability what the NZDF can offer from existing capabilities, without any great feeling of guilt or regret. The GOTD will then remind us how well our contribution is helping allies and we are 'punching above our weight' etc... which would largely be a factually incorrect statement!
Unfortunately what political parties lack is any understanding of the fact that any such conflict will bring with it massive economic dislocation and quite possibly even an actual physical blockade (eg: a sub and mines threat closing most of our biggest harbours) ... that's when level-4 COVID lock down will look like a weekend at the beach. Hell NZ hasn't even managed to get it's head around the fact we would be hard pressed to clear mines from our harbours. Yes we have a handful of deployable MCM systems but why hasn't the RNZN got a top-end MCM capability as a core competency... and mine disposal is still largely dependent on clearance divers who in this day & age should be largely replaced by remotely operated disposal systems. NZ has many IMEX ports but no apparent strategy to protect them - how has that been allowed to happen!?!
Look I could go on for hours... and I'm ranting to the converted... but I have a somewhat pessimist view that anything will change NZ's level of investment. The DCP will address some issues, but needs to go much further even with existing capabilities before we consider expanding the lack of other capabilities such as an ACF. Modern weapon systems have become extremely expensive and to be honest I don't believe any Govt will justify trying to bridge that gap with the ADF & others. The other issue is the lead time to build capabilities... years fro an ACF... it will all just be put into the 'too hard' basket.
Yes I'm so pessimistic... and yes I'm sure my outlook may not prove 100% correct in the long term. Any nostalgia I show is more about NZ's previous place in, and understanding of, the world rather than just a yearning for an ACF.
Need coffee!
Last edited:
