Royal New Zealand Air Force

[John Fedup]

For that to work Oz should demand that NZ gets its spending back to 1989/1990 levels of 2% of GDP. That decade defence spending halved and it has never recovered from 1% and at times lower.

NZ has to get its head around the fact that 1% of GDP is not sufficient and never has been. That a mentality stuck in the idea that it is still 1993 not 2018 when it comes to what is appropriate defence spend wise. Unfortunately only two out of the three Anglosphere nations are holding up their end of the bargain when it comes to maintaining our long term traditions of liberal democracy.

Agreed, and I don't see this situation improving. In the UK's case it is the consequences of Brexit along with other domestic issues. Both Canada and NZ have apathetic electorates when it comes to defence electing fools like junior. It could get worse as Trump continues his gong show. Between continuing deficits and a debt approaching 20 trillion dollars, the US 3-4% of GDP for defence is going to be impossible once interest rates begin to rise.

 

[MrConservative]

I believe Airbus is unbackable in light of it current problems both with the aircraft and management. I also don't believe C2 will get up due to the fact it has only a single operator its logistical supply train limits(engines are compatible within 5 eyes) usefulness within RNZAF, I would not 100% rule it out but believe its an outside chance as with C17 the aircraft the USAF placed in storage they will eventually want to put back to work, that leaves a commercial aircraft for strategic lift a like for like capability. there are large freighter commercial lifter's such as ANZ B777/787 fleet but that can lead to limited deployed in country support with NZ allies which operate different models, for this reason I believe RNZAF has only 2 real choices either the Boeing KC-46 Pegasus or A330 MRTT.

From my perspective I believe this is why the RFI listed AAR as a desirable capability, with possibly eventfully fitting out refuelling probes to the NH-90 fleet.

French, German Governments to Renew Airbus Management

The main issue that we get back to is the inability to stuff an NH-90 in a C-130. NZ-LAV is not so much of an issue as that was always going to be a Sealift tasking. One of the most immediate and useful needs in for example a HADR event like the Tsunami in Samoa in 2009 was the urgent need for utility rotary assets.

We have a numbers shortage in that area with only 5 LUH (training) and 8 NH90's (utility). Sprites can be used but using an ASW helicopter in such a way is pretty non-optimal.

So instead of trying to put the cart in front of the horse or square peg in a round hole - maybe the prgamatic idea is to actually get a MUH that fits inside a K/C-130J variant. Leave the LUH numbers as they are at five for training, leave the NH90 numbers at eight (and they can sensibly deploy with the LAV's via a sealift capability) and introduce a few UH-60V's into service. So when there is an HADR/SASO event in the South Pacific for example we can respond appropriately and have a couple of MUH rotary assets there within the first day.

UH-60V's are the digital cockpit upgrade for remanufactured UH-60A's from AMARG to UH-60L's.

http://www.fi-aeroweb.com/Defense/Budget-Data/FY2017/UH-60-A-L-ARMY-PROC-FY2017.pdf

The vanilla UH-60L is not a bank breaker either: Colombia – UH-60L BLACK HAWK Helicopters | The Official Home of the Defense Security Cooperation Agency

 

[MrConservative]

Although the US is likely the best option for second hand C-17s, trying to persuade Qatar to sell two of their C-17s might be an alternative source. Can't imagine they have many hours on their C-17s, they don't need 8 of them, and Qatar needs new friends. Regardless, C-17s should be the choice.

Since they are persona non-grata in the Gulf States Cooperation Council their 8 C-17's wont be up too much. Qatar is about 1/6th the size of Tasmania. They only bought 8 because the UAE bought eight. It is show pony stuff.

Boeing stockholders did well though and that is about all. They will likely sit in the desert and be flown around empty every once and awhile. Maybe we could pay for a couple of C-5M's before the RERP runs down the clock and swap them for a couple of C-17's with a cash difference.

We get two C-17's put to actual constant good use for the benefit of free world and they get a couple of huge aircraft even bigger than what the UAE have to self congratulate themselves over. Everyones happy.

The kind of crazy deal Trump might get off on.

 

[old faithful]

The main issue that we get back to is the inability to stuff an NH-90 in a C-130. NZ-LAV is not so much of an issue as that was always going to be a Sealift tasking. One of the most immediate and useful needs in for example a HADR event like the Tsunami in Samoa in 2009 was the urgent need for utility rotary assets.

We have a numbers shortage in that area with only 5 LUH (training) and 8 NH90's (utility). Sprites can be used but using an ASW helicopter in such a way is pretty non-optimal.

So instead of trying to put the cart in front of the horse or square peg in a round hole - maybe the prgamatic idea is to actually get a MUH that fits inside a K/C-130J variant. Leave the LUH numbers as they are at five for training, leave the NH90 numbers at eight (and they can sensibly deploy with the LAV's via a sealift capability) and introduce a few UH-60V's into service. So when there is an HADR/SASO event in the South Pacific for example we can respond appropriately and have a couple of MUH rotary assets there within the first day.

UH-60V's are the digital cockpit upgrade for remanufactured UH-60A's from AMARG to UH-60L's.

http://www.fi-aeroweb.com/Defense/Budget-Data/FY2017/UH-60-A-L-ARMY-PROC-FY2017.pdf

The vanilla UH-60L is not a bank breaker either: Colombia – UH-60L BLACK HAWK Helicopters | The Official Home of the Defense Security Cooperation Agency

Actually a pretty sensible plan.
5 x C130J30,s. Increases the airlift by a bit, commonality with just about everyone.
Add 5-6 Blackhawks, good to go.
Or get rid of the NH90,s completely, and go for a fleet of 12-14 Blackhawks, and replace the Sprites with 8-10 Seahawks.....now its starting to make sense.
Get a couple of MRTT and the RNZAF can really help of RAAF operations as well as their own.

 

[t68]

The main issue that we get back to is the inability to stuff an NH-90 in a C-130. NZ-LAV is not so much of an issue as that was always going to be a Sealift tasking. One of the most immediate and useful needs in for example a HADR event like the Tsunami in Samoa in 2009 was the urgent need for utility rotary assets.

We have a numbers shortage in that area with only 5 LUH (training) and 8 NH90's (utility). Sprites can be used but using an ASW helicopter in such a way is pretty non-optimal.

So instead of trying to put the cart in front of the horse or square peg in a round hole - maybe the prgamatic idea is to actually get a MUH that fits inside a K/C-130J variant. Leave the LUH numbers as they are at five for training, leave the NH90 numbers at eight (and they can sensibly deploy with the LAV's via a sealift capability) and introduce a few UH-60V's into service. So when there is an HADR/SASO event in the South Pacific for example we can respond appropriately and have a couple of MUH rotary assets there within the first day.

UH-60V's are the digital cockpit upgrade for remanufactured UH-60A's from AMARG to UH-60L's.

http://www.fi-aeroweb.com/Defense/Budget-Data/FY2017/UH-60-A-L-ARMY-PROC-FY2017.pdf

The vanilla UH-60L is not a bank breaker either: Colombia – UH-60L BLACK HAWK Helicopters | The Official Home of the Defense Security Cooperation Agency

Agree it would make sense to buy equipment that fits the existing capability, but unfortunately I cant see government picking up the tab for another type inless to replace existing fleet. Has RNZAF ever tested the self deploy ability of the NH-90 to near Pacific nation?

I know you relied on the RAAF for movement to Talisman Sabre via C17

 

[Rob c]

Actually a pretty sensible plan.
5 x C130J30,s. Increases the airlift by a bit, commonality with just about everyone.
Add 5-6 Blackhawks, good to go.
Or get rid of the NH90,s completely, and go for a fleet of 12-14 Blackhawks, and replace the Sprites with 8-10 Seahawks.....now its starting to make sense.
Get a couple of MRTT and the RNZAF can really help of RAAF operations as well as their own.

While this does make some sense, it wont happen. As we are looking for a transport aircraft replacement, it would make more sense to buy an aircraft which will do the require job instead of buying one that won't and then changing every think else so that we can achieve the missions that we need to carry out.

 

[t68]

While this does make some sense, it wont happen. As we are looking for a transport aircraft replacement, it would make more sense to buy an aircraft which will do the require job instead of buying one that won't and then changing every think else so that we can achieve the missions that we need to carry out.

Agree it wont happen, but there even less logic in investing in an aircraft that on paper ticks all the boxes but is left on the tarmac due to design or spare parts problems, its the difference of having a capability 100% of the time to 50% of time.

C130J might be the 80% solution but when you need it you know it supported 100% of time

 

[Novascotiaboy]

Mr C the suggestion of a second fleet of MUH is the best idea on this thread in a long time IMHO. Besides their HADR use via C130J-30 they would be more economic to operate in support of other government departments.
I also agree with the idea of pursuing some type of deal with Qatar for a couple of their underutilized C17s. They must need dairy or meat products as a result of their current status.

 

[Gibbo]

Agree it would make sense to buy equipment that fits the existing capability, but unfortunately I cant see government picking up the tab for another type inless to replace existing fleet. Has RNZAF ever tested the self deploy ability of the NH-90 to near Pacific nation?

I know you relied on the RAAF for movement to Talisman Sabre via C17

Absolutely correct - no Govt (Nat or Lab/NZF etc) is about to stump up $$$ for a another type just so it fits into the C130. The additional support & training overheads of a new, small fleet don't warrant it.

As stated the issues revolve largely around NH-90 & LAV not fitting into the C130. The fact is the LAV will indeed only ever be significantly deployed by HMNZS Canterbury or an allies equivalent vessel. The need to air deploy will only be in fairly rare deployments like Afghanistan where a small number for a specific purpose are moved by allies. The key point to consider is NZDF will tailor their response to reflect the deployability of assets - so if it's a land-locked area & NZDF can't organise transport, they won't be sent.

The NH-90 is a more immediate issue but if the C130J gets the nod for tactical FAMC, as I expect it will, the only realistic option to air-deploy will be a continuation of grovelling for a C17 favour from allies or get onto maturing the self-deploy NH-90 capability.

Yes getting a larger type for Strategic FAMC is the best opportunity but with no obvious choice that offers something that is (1) available (2) proven in demanding service over time (3) not racked with issues of poor support, huge losses etc, then a B757 type combi (KC46 / A330 MRTT etc) is a very real possibility.

So I'd suggest none of the C17, A400M, C2 are a certainty.

 

[MrConservative]

Actually a pretty sensible plan.
5 x C130J30,s. Increases the airlift by a bit, commonality with just about everyone.
Add 5-6 Blackhawks, good to go.
Or get rid of the NH90,s completely, and go for a fleet of 12-14 Blackhawks, and replace the Sprites with 8-10 Seahawks.....now its starting to make sense.
Get a couple of MRTT and the RNZAF can really help of RAAF operations as well as their own.

I'd keep the NH90 besides selling them would be a loss and would there be a buyer? The replacement Sprites are working perfectly fine and will keep ticking over for another 12-15 years.

Buy six C-130J's - three in the latest SOF configuration and three in the stretched J-30 configuration. The SOF is a tanker and ISR platform, fit the J-30's with the A2A receptacle option. The latest external fuel tank upgrade adds 500nm. The McMurdo PSR is greatly eased. The easiest, cheapest and most proven transition of any future FAMC type to replace the C-130H in RNZAF service. It does everything we want from a tactical lifter, commonality with all our close regional partners, and follow it up with whatever wins the run off between a B767 variant and an A330 variant for the strategic requirement. In favour of the B767 is that it is cheaper to buy own and operate and again an easy transition for 40Sqd coming from the B757 compared to an A330 variant. Also there is a huge amount of existing type knowledge and contractor support capacity in country following AirNZ flying the type for many years.

Won't happen? It may do if they think things through and crunch the numbers. There is a ministerial review going on after-all. Mr Mark clearly sees the attributes of the C-130J family, has spoken highly of the Blackhawk, not a great fan of the NH90 so there is real doubts over getting more of those to fill the MUH gap, he has spoken frequently that there are not enough utility helicopters. In the time frame for the FAMC replacement 2025-25 I cannot see any issue introducing the UH-60V into RNZAF service. The the NH90 and LUH are established in service and small numbers of UH-60V's to shove in the back of a C-130J should on no account be an impossible issue for a functioning modern air force to overcome. If that is too much for them then remanufactured zero houred Huey II's. The Kenyans picked up five for USD$52m with all the usual support and went back for three more. It is about getting the job done. It is being smart and not being pedantic. The support and cost excuses are only that and if small private companies can manage to operate small mixed fleets of Bell 212's, Jet Rangers and MD-500's then excuses about a basic utility helicopter to supplement the NH90 that we can get quickly to places where the NH-90 cannot go because it is too fat to fit.

Kenya to receive five Huey II helicopters

Kenyan Huey II deliveries almost complete; Ugandan deliveries imminent | defenceWeb

 

[Gibbo]

I'd keep the NH90 besides selling them would be a loss and would there be a buyer? The replacement Sprites are working perfectly fine and will keep ticking over for another 12-15 years.

Buy six C-130J's - three in the latest SOF configuration and three in the stretched J-30 configuration. The SOF is a tanker and ISR platform, fit the J-30's with the A2A receptacle option. The latest external fuel tank upgrade adds 500nm. The McMurdo PSR is greatly The easiest, cheapest and most proven transition of any future FAMC type to replace the C-130H in RNZAF service. It does everything we want from a tactical lifter, commonality with all our close regional partners, and follow it up with whatever wins the run off between a B767 variant and an A330 variant for the strategic requirement. In favour of the B767 is that it is cheaper to buy own and operate and again an easy transition for 40Sqd coming from the B757 compared to an A330 variant. Also there is a huge amount of existing type knowledge and contractor support capacity in country following AirNZ flying the type for many years.

Won't happen? It may do if they think things through and crunch the numbers. There is a ministerial review going on after-all. Mr Mark clearly sees the attributes of the C-130J family, has spoken highly of the Blackhawk, not a great fan of the NH90 so there is real doubts over getting more of those to fill the MUH gap, he has spoken frequently that there are not enough utility helicopters. In the time frame for the FAMC replacement 2025-25 I cannot see any issue introducing the UH-60V into RNZAF service. The the NH90 and LUH are established in service and small numbers of UH-60V's to shove in the back of a C-130J should on no account be an impossible issue for a functioning modern air force to overcome. If that is too much for them then remanufactured zero houred Huey II's. The Kenyans picked up five for USD$52m with all the usual support and went back for three more. It is about getting the job done. It is being smart and not being pedantic. The support and cost excuses are only that and if small private companies can manage to operate small mixed fleets of Bell 212's, Jet Rangers and MD-500's then excuses about a basic utility helicopter to supplement the NH90 that we can get quickly to places where the NH-90 cannot go because it is too fat to fit.

Kenya to receive five Huey II helicopters

Kenyan Huey II deliveries almost complete; Ugandan deliveries imminent | defenceWeb

Yes agree with NH-90 is here to stay & we do need more rotary - but that is more likely to be get NH-90 #9 in full service and a small number of extra AW109. I wouldn't say no to a small fleet of MUH but I just can't convince myself Govt is going to go there. It certainly wouldn't be a Huey type - after all the political argy-bargy about the cost & subsequently the (erroneous) issues about suitability / availability etc they are not about to buy more of the type the NH-90 replaced. Imagine the political fallout and questions as to why we got rid of Hueys only to buy more after the huge outlay on the NH-90. To be honest the same bad press would surround any new type to supplement the NH-90 - so can't see any political will there.

Assume we're talking HADR in SouPac, that's where we are most likely to need the NH-90 in theatre quickly. Self-deploy has to be developed as a core capability. RNZN also now has 5, eventually 7 (Aotearoa and SOPV) helicopter capable vessels so there are increasingly chances that a vessel will be available at short-notice so an initial seaborne response (SH-2G or AW109 only on OPV) is also realistic. While they sail the C130 etc can be doing the initial response and maybe also run as mother-ship for a couple of self-deploying NH-90.

So many options, so little $$$...

 

[kiwipatriot69]

Agree it wont happen, but there even less logic in investing in an aircraft that on paper ticks all the boxes but is left on the tarmac due to design or spare parts problems, its the difference of having a capability 100% of the time to 50% of time.

C130J might be the 80% solution but when you need it you know it supported 100% of time

In that vein of questioning I would argue how often would we require a C17 sized airlifter, how often would it remain on the tarmac, due to a lack of funding for flight hrs etc. Sure, if the price is right and we have assistance of our Aussie neighbours all fine and dandy, but a refit however cheap will just by us what ,10, 15 years before we start having issues with it, need to replace it anyway? Having larger ships in the pipeline is good, but really a immediate air response is preferential.

 

[recce.k1]

The additional MUH idea is quite interesting.

The NH90's are foremost "battlefield" helos (eg with their early warning countermseasures and future FLIR system etc), keep them for that i.e. in-country Army/CT support and overseas deployments. (Ideally a couple more or so NH90's would be bought in time to ensure sufficient numbers can be deployed and supported).

But yes perhaps there is a need for a basic MUH that can fit into a C-130J/KC-390 (without many of the ECM equipment and costs etc) for basic Army utiliity, SAR and HADR support. For Army roles perhaps they could supplement the NH90's in terms of follow-up logistics support lift? If so handy for in-country use and potentially for overseas deployment support of the Army in more secured areas etc. Ideal for quick HADR response into the South Pacific (saves tieing up the NH90's).

Could the current AW-109 suffice (although it is a LUH - with reduced lift), to simplify support and training? If not, then looks like there are options otlined here eg Huey II's, UH-60V's or another Eurocopter variant (of which there are a number of good options)?

NZ needs more rotary lift is a given and with the current public awareness of natural disasters and HADR, it could be a good investment, especially if costs are reasonably contained so that it doesn't impact on other Major Projects funding!

 

[t68]

In that vein of questioning I would argue how often would we require a C17 sized airlifter, how often would it remain on the tarmac, due to a lack of funding for flight hrs etc. Sure, if the price is right and we have assistance of our Aussie neighbours all fine and dandy, but a refit however cheap will just by us what ,10, 15 years before we start having issues with it, need to replace it anyway? Having larger ships in the pipeline is good, but really a immediate air response is preferential.

Its not a question how often NZ would use the oversize capability of C17 but one of cost for rate of effort and effect that has on the overall capability options open to RNZAF and government ,If the government had not procrastinated on the white tails RNZAF would not be in a position on compromising operational flexibility now

 

[MrConservative]

Yes agree with NH-90 is here to stay & we do need more rotary - but that is more likely to be get NH-90 #9 in full service and a small number of extra AW109. I wouldn't say no to a small fleet of MUH but I just can't convince myself Govt is going to go there.

If not a Huey II (they are cheap), or a UH-60 which is the kind of rotary we should have got all along and replaced 1 for 1 with the Huey, then maybe a LUH using a larger A109 Grand airframe and with increased engine performance is a solution. At least there is faith in that type and can be shoved in the back of a C-130J.
The self-deployment of an NH-90 2000nm across the Pacific Ocean has a number of issues and will still take a matter of days. I put it in the spin-doctor 101 response to cover ones arse to media questions. Kind of fantasyland stuff like the CY was also going to be a patrol vessel. Long range self deployment is not a rapid response. It is ad-hoc seat of the pants stuff and not without risk. Lose a crew and a helicopter under such circumstances it would be very interesting to see how that legally plays out for anyone in the decision loop.

Whatever happens HADR wise the NZDF will take days before they have rotary capability into the island unless it hitches a ride via an airlifter. I can see TVNZ's Barbara Dreaver right now, whinging that the Australian Army are already there flying UH-60's doing the great work - but our NH-90's will take another three days island hopping - talk about then having a PR disaster. Some modern first world HADR from a nation that is making it self out to be such a thing and has sacrificed its combat capability to do so cannot get a helicopter to rescue little children from the roof of huts and airlift old people to hospital. Shift a tonne of emergency food and a diesel generator to a cut off village - or an isolated village on a island 50 kilometres away without a runway. And the real nasty stuff body retrevial before the tropical weather humidity and temps create ID and health issues. Then they might break off their fantasyland nonsense about self deploying and do something constructive..

 

[Novascotiaboy]

Great conversation going on here.

A six pack purchase would provide the rule of threes coverage needed to sustain ops and allow for maintenance and training. The SOF aircraft can provide SAR in place of the P8s as well as provide unique support to the NZSAS. Is there any probability that the 30 mm cannon option would be considered by the government?

 

[Gibbo]

If not a Huey II (they are cheap), or a UH-60 which is the kind of rotary we should have got all along and replaced 1 for 1 with the Huey, then maybe a LUH using a larger A109 Grand airframe and with increased engine performance is a solution. At least there is faith in that type and can be shoved in the back of a C-130J.
The self-deployment of an NH-90 2000nm across the Pacific Ocean has a number of issues and will still take a matter of days. I put it in the spin-doctor 101 response to cover ones arse to media questions. Kind of fantasyland stuff like the CY was also going to be a patrol vessel. Long range self deployment is not a rapid response. It is ad-hoc seat of the pants stuff and not without risk. Lose a crew and a helicopter under such circumstances it would be very interesting to see how that legally plays out for anyone in the decision loop.

Whatever happens HADR wise the NZDF will take days before they have rotary capability into the island unless it hitches a ride via an airlifter. I can see TVNZ's Barbara Dreaver right now, whinging that the Australian Army are already there flying UH-60's doing the great work - but our NH-90's will take another three days island hopping - talk about then having a PR disaster. Some modern first world HADR from a nation that is making it self out to be such a thing and has sacrificed its combat capability to do so cannot get a helicopter to rescue little children from the roof of huts and airlift old people to hospital. Shift a tonne of emergency food and a diesel generator to a cut off village - or an isolated village on a island 50 kilometres away without a runway. And the real nasty stuff body retrevial before the tropical weather humidity and temps create ID and health issues. Then they might break off their fantasyland nonsense about self deploying and do something constructive..

Yes agree island-hopping is a multi-day exercise with risk, so probably only really a least preferred option... still I do think it should be in the bag of tricks. Ultimately I guess we all agree if Govt won't shell out for a capable airlifter then it's either (1) bludge use of a C17 (2) AW109 in a C130 or (3) NH-90 self-deploy... I don't see a new type being added, would be slated publicly as an admission of a defence planning failure (which of course would be pinned on MOD & NZDF, not pollies).

 

[Rob c]

Agree it wont happen, but there even less logic in investing in an aircraft that on paper ticks all the boxes but is left on the tarmac due to design or spare parts problems, its the difference of having a capability 100% of the time to 50% of time.

C130J might be the 80% solution but when you need it you know it supported 100% of time

I think you will find that all major western aircraft manufacturers will be at great pains to ensure their products are well supported, as their reputation relies on it and a bad reputation means no sales .Availability in modern aircraft is generally high and Embraer aircraft have a reputation world wide of very high availability, It was reported (some were, I did see it but cannot find it) that the KC 390 had an availability during test flying of 97% which if true is astonishing for test flying. for futher info .
KC-390: The New Generation Multimission Transport Aircraft - DEFSEC Media
However I still like the KHI C 2

 

[t68]

Well Mr C idea of using Blackhawk appears to be sustainable as StarFlight Australia is is/has introduced rebuilt Blackhawks aa firefighting water bombers 10 airframes for $63m AUD

World-first refurbishment of Black Hawk helicopters for firefighting and disaster relief in Australia under new agreement


http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA391744

 

[MrConservative]

Well Mr C idea of using Blackhawk appears to be sustainable as StarFlight Australia is is/has introduced rebuilt Blackhawks aa firefighting water bombers 10 airframes for $63m AUD

World-first refurbishment of Black Hawk helicopters for firefighting and disaster relief in Australia under new agreement


http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA391744

Very very interesting. They are to be used in Australia and New Zealand for firefighting and for disaster relief as well. If it is good enough for Fire & Emergency NZ to contract them in when disaster strikes here (no doubt with the bill eventually ending up paid by the NZ government) - it should be good enough to work through some form a contract for the NZDF that meets their needs takes the hassle out of training, support and spares. Even lease them through a local look through company and have the RNZAF fly them and leaving all the management minutiae to LM.

http://news.lockheedmartin.com/2017...aster-relief-in-Australia-under-new-agreement

Ten Blackhawks for AUD$62m. With Lockheed Martin in the picture, Mil Comms and a OEM digital cockpit upgrade they would be good to go - an elegant low cost solution or pay another half billion dollars plus to buy a fleet of tactical lifters that can stuff an NH90 in the back to get to the Cook Islands following a Cyclone.