Royal Australian Navy Discussions and Updates 2.0

SammyC

Well-Known Member
It's not apples vs apples, but ...

I had a chuckle reading the below from Kym Bergmann about MHI production rate for the Mogami [and referenced earlier in Reptila's post] ...

"As with other FFMs, it takes only 12 months to go from keel laying to launch – a world-competitive speed. During a subsequent shipyard tour it was explained to us that the secret sauce is to QR code all pipes" Mogami frigate – 'fast and stealthy, like a ninja' - APDR

Yes it might not be apples vs apples, but does the Hunter class have any special sauce because as a taxpayer I would like some of that.

As a non engineer or builder in general, I assume the actual logistics and project planning of assembly management are pretty important in ensuring on time/ on budget. I bloody well hope BAe @ Osburne are using smart solutions like this because we need to be better than average given the challenges we face in this theatre.

Yep, the Japanese are at the absolute bleeding edge of ship construction. They seem to be achieving that difficult balance between speed and quality that few others can obtain.

That was an unusual article from Kym. Normally he doesn't have a good thing to say about Navy procurement, and has been very negative about sea3000 in the past.

I am of the view that having a construction partner like MHI for the in country GPF build would be of enormus benefit, as some of their techniques would be very valuable to Henderson. And possibly even Osborne.

The construction of a Mogami v a Hunter/T26 is not a good apples for apples. The complexity (and capability) of the Hunter is significantly more. Is it worth three times the construction time is however debatable.

I suspect it will always remain a mystery for how long it would take to build a Hunter in a Japanese yard.
 

hauritz

Well-Known Member
They have 2 in the water and the cutting of steel for the 5th ship is ahead of schedule.
Kind of hoping that is how it works out for the Hunter. When the realisation sinks in that local construction of of the GPF won't be as straight forward as the government seems to believe I expect more priority will be given to ramping up Hunter production.
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
The big thing with the Japanese yards is they have engaged in continuous builds for decades.

They don't have black holes, they don't stop, they don't have to restart from nothing every couple of decades.
I would also suggest that people look at when the plans for what became the Mogami-class started, along with when construction of the lead vessel began and when the lead ship was commissioned. IIRC the planning by the JMSDF started in 2015 and a concept vessel was offered that year, though it is possible that MHI had begun work on the design concept some time before the JMSDF sought replacements for the older JMSDF escorts. Mid-2017 MHI was selected as prime along with the new design, with construction of the lead ship starting in October 2019 and getting commissioned about 30 months later in April 2022.

To put it another way, Japan went from planning for a new class in 2015, to lead ship entering service about seven years later. That is with MHI already having done at least some work on what became the Mogami-class ahead of time, as well as Japan having a very much alive, well and continuously running shipbuilding and naval construction industry.

Having an active yard with a skilled workforce can dramatically reduce the time it takes to actually get some of the work done. Having an active industry with the various subsidiary supply chains already in place also can have a dramatic impact on how quickly some of these things can be turned out. Furthermore, I would imagine if effective prior consideration was given, then various issues which can arise during construction could be mitigated if not outright avoided.

Unfort for Australia, whilst the yards have been able to rise to the occasion for the work ordered, there has been a lack of consistency on the part of gov't. This has led (repeatedly) to booms and bust cycles in shipbuilding, with each instance forcing time and resources to get expended to re-skill rather than being able to maintain a skilled workforce, as well as forcing supply chains to get re-established as supporting companies either moving onto other things or in some cases outright closing up once orders cease.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
What’s that got to do with the RAN? We use different systems to the RN. But we certainly have multiple decoy systems; and in our view, ones that are superior to the RN, such as Nulka. It will be the systems the RAN prefers that are fitted to the Hunters, not whatever it is the RN decide to go with. They could be the same, but it’s not very likely.
The comment was in relation to the Mogami that was being discussed and if any such system was used on these ships ,I included the article for the R.N as an example of what may be included and how decoys evolve to meet changing threats in the capabilities of these missiles
 

StingrayOZ

Super Moderator
Staff member
The big thing with the Japanese yards is they have engaged in continuous builds for decades.

They don't have black holes, they don't stop, they don't have to restart from nothing every couple of decades.
To put it another way, Japan went from planning for a new class in 2015, to lead ship entering service about seven years later. That is with MHI already having done at least some work on what became the Mogami-class ahead of time, as well as Japan having a very much alive, well and continuously running shipbuilding and naval construction industry.
If the Japanese win, I hope the Japanese government sits down with the AUGOV and tells them this secret of manufacturing.
All their programs are continuous and evolving. It's that what gives them a special advantage and places them at the leading edge of ship building.

I suspect it will always remain a mystery for how long it would take to build a Hunter in a Japanese yard.
That concept doesn't really work. They could do it, but it doesn't mean it would be very efficient at it, particularly if you just built one ship and to RAN numerous modifications. The japanese build whole production lines, and then order all they can from it, forever. It's not the platform, its the system.

The American talent in WW2 wasn't building the best tank. It perhaps, wasn't the best individual platform. But it was good enough, and wherever the germans had a tank or a anti tank gun, the Americans had ten. It's not the tank, but the tank factory. The tank is a product of the factory. A single tank doesn't end a war. Systems. .

I do suspect that the Japanese would be totally interested in some sort of joint AU/UK/US/JP air defence destroyer program. Maybe taking aspects from all the various programs. Much like the Japanese are totally interest in some sort of 6th generation fighter program. In that sense the Mogami program winning SEA3000 isn't even about a bunch of frigates for Australia, but fixing a much bigger problem facing multiple countries. An extra 11 frigates doesn't change the balance in a China conflict.

Not to just make money. But because their major adversary is already putting to build similar programs. In a Japan V China arrangement, they know they lose every single time no matter how clever and how hard they try.

With Mogami they are trying very hard.

There is only so much you can do to ramp production. We already tried this with the Hobarts. The Irony in my opinion, is that the Hunter has so many problems because we didn't build enough Hobarts. I'm not sure BAE or Gov or RAN would agree, but IMO that is the big issue.

Because we didn't built enough hobarts
  • We over inflated the needs and capabilities of the Hunters well beyond the initial spec the hull was designed around because we didn't build enough DDG
  • We are or were completely fixated on metrics like VLS because we didn't build enough DDG
  • We lack modern hulls generally in our navy, bye bye anzacs, just after we stopped building hobarts.
  • We created a fractured and disjointed logistics footprint that cul-de-sac supporting SME. Supporting 3 ships is a tiny fleet, and requires much of the support of a 8 or 12 ship fleet, but with no profits or benefit for those involved in the orphans.
  • We lack continuous ship building experience which we had hard fought to bring up with the 3 hobart to a reasonable baseline.
  • We broke our workforce and eroded trust in the whole ADF/marine ship building. Where do apprentices come from if we build nothing? how does lower and middle management get experience if there is nothing happening? Who wants to be locked into a uniform on a platform with maybe 1 at sea at anytime, and no career progression?
  • We have a fairly broken force mix with 3. Impacting things like crewing, upgrades, support, weapons etc. We pay more and get less.
I'm not saying the hobarts are a super ship and solved all problems and were a magic build. But cutting them at 3 was a huge, huge problem. Even if we built 5 and then promptly sank 2 of them as reefs, we may have been in a better position where we are now. So when we cut numbers and programs we really have to understand what we are doing.

Time is the most precious resource. It can be converted into money very easily. Unfortunately converting money into time is basically impossible.

But we do this all over the place. Literally every major project we embark on. Not just defence. Case studies can include things like the Sydney Opera House. Australia managed to blow the budget by 1300% by politically messing up the management and thousands of variations after construction had started. Sound familiar?..
 

StevoJH

The Bunker Group
The three Hobart class should have been followed by a further three ships that include all the upgrades that the existing ships are currently being retrofitted with.

The existing batch 1 ships could then be sold off to South America, Eastern Europe or utilised as tier 2 assets for 10-15 years before being retired. It would have kept ASC busy while waiting for Hunter and would have resulted in an RAN with either more capability or with 3 better ships at not much more cost (after selling off hull's 1-3).

Realistically the RAN and Australian government well and truly over capitalised on the ANZAC class over their life.
 

Volkodav

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Scope creep.

Had we built enough DDGs and or FFGs the Hunters could have been ASW specialist ships without AEGIS, then no need for SEA 3000, or maybe they could have been. They are very useful ships, the sort of thing a medium sized navy could have bought to replace their dozen Tier 3 OPC corvettes.
 

Volkodav

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
I would also suggest that people look at when the plans for what became the Mogami-class started, along with when construction of the lead vessel began and when the lead ship was commissioned. IIRC the planning by the JMSDF started in 2015 and a concept vessel was offered that year, though it is possible that MHI had begun work on the design concept some time before the JMSDF sought replacements for the older JMSDF escorts. Mid-2017 MHI was selected as prime along with the new design, with construction of the lead ship starting in October 2019 and getting commissioned about 30 months later in April 2022.

To put it another way, Japan went from planning for a new class in 2015, to lead ship entering service about seven years later. That is with MHI already having done at least some work on what became the Mogami-class ahead of time, as well as Japan having a very much alive, well and continuously running shipbuilding and naval construction industry.

Having an active yard with a skilled workforce can dramatically reduce the time it takes to actually get some of the work done. Having an active industry with the various subsidiary supply chains already in place also can have a dramatic impact on how quickly some of these things can be turned out. Furthermore, I would imagine if effective prior consideration was given, then various issues which can arise during construction could be mitigated if not outright avoided.

Unfort for Australia, whilst the yards have been able to rise to the occasion for the work ordered, there has been a lack of consistency on the part of gov't. This has led (repeatedly) to booms and bust cycles in shipbuilding, with each instance forcing time and resources to get expended to re-skill rather than being able to maintain a skilled workforce, as well as forcing supply chains to get re-established as supporting companies either moving onto other things or in some cases outright closing up once orders cease.
The Hobart's weren't perfect but they were good enough.

The upgrades they are currently planned to receive show some of what a continuous build could have delivered.

Add in new digitally controlled GTs, updated propulsion and power generation diesels, improved structured and other lessons learnt.

We could have built an additional seven or eight to replace the ANZACs. No need for the ANZAC upgrades, or even such an extensive (and expensive) upgrade to the Hobart's as new ships incorporating the improvements would be entering service.

Eventually we switch over to a new, proper DDG design and do the same, just commission one new ship every two years, maintaining a fleet of ten in service and five in reserve, available for sale, transfer or reactivation in an emergency.

This is tier 1.

Tier 2 then becomes the SEA 3000 GPF.

Build twenty, ten as GPFs and as newer ships come on line reconfigure the earlier ones for other roles. MCM, hydrographics, border protection, even as APDs (fast, survivable, special forces / marine transports). One ship commissioned a year, ten in reserve.

This is basically what China is doing. They aren't upgrading old ships, let alone life extending them, they are building new ones.

Outdated destroyers are used as gp escorts, out dated frigates are transferred to the coastguard as patrol ships. The navy gets a constant flow of ever improving ships and cascades ships with plenty of life remaining to other roles.

Hell if we were serious about defence we could reclassify tier 2 as tier 3 and insert a Type 26 derivative as tier 2, doing the same.

The early 1990s, planned, budgeted force for the RAN by the 2000s was eight or nine tier 1 FFG/DDG, eight tier 2 patrol frigates, twelve corvettes, six mine hunters, six hydrographic ships and vessels, two or more supply ships and two or more amphibious ships. This was the hard, minimum, peace time navy, with an assumption of ten years warning time to expand it.

Our current global situation was anticipated almost twenty years ago, yet we persist in shrinking a fleet that was already less than half its planned minimum necessary size. People are screaming about the cost and where the crews will come from.

Answer, with modern crewing requirements the personnel numbers needed by the 1990s proposed fleet would cover a larger 2030 fleet.

Ten Hobart's and ten Hunters have a lower crew requirement than three Perth's, six Adelaide's and eight ANZACs. Twenty Mogamis have a similar crew requirement to twelve corvettes, six mine hunters, and six hydrographic vessels.

The biggest issue would be all the extra helicopters, their crews and maintainers. Then again though, look at the size and capability of the Fleet Air Arm in the early 80s.
 

Takao

The Bunker Group
Realistically the RAN and Australian government well and truly over capitalised on the ANZAC class over their life.
Which reinforces the lessons the RN identified with the Leander class frigates. Their conversions became so expensive that they could have bought new ships for the cost - and those new ships would have been better in every respect than what they had. It's a lesson repeated over and over and over again - when something reaches it's end of life, retire it. The price paid for an M113AS4 is eye-watering, we would have been better off scrapping it and getting a Warrior/Bradley-esque platform. Yes, it would have cost a bit more up front, but not that much more. And the through life support would have been cheaper. And the soldiers would have had better kit.

As many point out, retiring and replacing the Perth's on time would have flowed naturally into replacing the Anzac's on time which would have been cheaper, faster, better tech, an actual industry, etc, etc.

Yes, there are some anomalies like the B-52. Having said that, I bet a B-52-like replacement (as opposed to the supersonic B-70 or B-1, or the stealth B-2) would have cost less in the long run if it had been rolled out in the late 80s, early 90s. I've firmly come down against any mid-life upgrades or the like - they are almost always short term gain (ish) for long term pain.
 

Volkodav

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Which reinforces the lessons the RN identified with the Leander class frigates. Their conversions became so expensive that they could have bought new ships for the cost - and those new ships would have been better in every respect than what they had. It's a lesson repeated over and over and over again - when something reaches it's end of life, retire it. The price paid for an M113AS4 is eye-watering, we would have been better off scrapping it and getting a Warrior/Bradley-esque platform. Yes, it would have cost a bit more up front, but not that much more. And the through life support would have been cheaper. And the soldiers would have had better kit.

As many point out, retiring and replacing the Perth's on time would have flowed naturally into replacing the Anzac's on time which would have been cheaper, faster, better tech, an actual industry, etc, etc.

Yes, there are some anomalies like the B-52. Having said that, I bet a B-52-like replacement (as opposed to the supersonic B-70 or B-1, or the stealth B-2) would have cost less in the long run if it had been rolled out in the late 80s, early 90s. I've firmly come down against any mid-life upgrades or the like - they are almost always short term gain (ish) for long term pain.
Spot on.

People forget that new (existing and or evolutionary) gives you fifteen to twenty years of reliable operation. If you are building to that interval, it doesn't cost much more, but capability is much better.

New systems incorporated in a new build, possibly evolved, platform are often better value for money than life extended old. The best, but most expensive option is new design platform with new systems.

The key is a holistic view on needs. Determine what upgrades, balanced with new build updated, and new design offers the best balance of cost versus capability.
 

iambuzzard

Well-Known Member
From reading of this ships defences I may have missed it but does appear to rely on stealth and being able to shot down incoming missiles in its defence ,would systems like llkara being added be of use ,this article by Navy lookout goes in to what the Royal navy is doing
Correct me if if I'm wrong but I believe Ikara is an anti-submarine missile. Pretty useless against anti-ship missiles.
Spot on.

People forget that new (existing and or evolutionary) gives you fifteen to twenty years of reliable operation. If you are building to that interval, it doesn't cost much more, but capability is much better.

New systems incorporated in a new build, possibly evolved, platform are often better value for money than life extended old. The best, but most expensive option is new design platform with new systems.

The key is a holistic view on needs. Determine what upgrades, balanced with new build updated, and new design offers the best balance of cost versus capability.
You're right Volks. Instead of signing contracts for a set number of hulls we should be budgeting every year for production of ships and keeping the lines open.
We should be designing the DDG evolution of the Hunter hull now instead of discussing it ten years down the track to avoid the valley of death.
If we choose the Evolved Mogami work with the Japanese on the next evolution and keep that line humming.
By the time the 11th GPF hits the water the first will be nearing the end of it's usefullness. In other words, don't stop at 11, keep them coming.
At the moment Japan are producing 2 Mogamis a year but will up the tempo with a third yard coming online. We need to copy this.
No more contracts for limited numbers, just continuous building.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
Correct me if if I'm wrong but I believe Ikara is an anti-submarine missile. Pretty useless against anti-ship missiles.

You're right Volks. Instead of signing contracts for a set number of hulls we should be budgeting every year for production of ships and keeping the lines open.
We should be designing the DDG evolution of the Hunter hull now instead of discussing it ten years down the track to avoid the valley of death.
If we choose the Evolved Mogami work with the Japanese on the next evolution and keep that line humming.
By the time the 11th GPF hits the water the first will be nearing the end of it's usefullness. In other words, don't stop at 11, keep them coming.
At the moment Japan are producing 2 Mogamis a year but will up the tempo with a third yard coming online. We need to copy this.
No more contracts for limited numbers, just continuous building.
You are right of course I was thinking of the Nulka
 

iambuzzard

Well-Known Member
You are right of course I was thinking of the Nulka
A late friend of mine worked on the development of it.
 

Systems Adict

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
...Unfort for Australia, whilst the yards have been able to rise to the occasion for the work ordered, there has been a lack of consistency on the part of gov't. This has led (repeatedly) to booms and bust cycles in shipbuilding, with each instance forcing time and resources to get expended to re-skill rather than being able to maintain a skilled workforce, as well as forcing supply chains to get re-established as supporting companies either moving onto other things or in some cases outright closing up once orders cease.
Sorry for stating the obvious, but there is also the "AUSTRALIANISATION" factor, as Hunter WAS based on T26, but it has been heavily modified. Add to this that T26 will no doubt have been 'self-modifying' to correct minor mistakes in their design & that this data will probably have been in turn, passed onto Australia to help address some issues.

ALL of this takes time, so trying to compare the Mogami to Hunter isn't like comparing apples to apples.


...& Happy New Year to all South of the Equator.

SA
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
Sorry for stating the obvious, but there is also the "AUSTRALIANISATION" factor, as Hunter WAS based on T26, but it has been heavily modified. Add to this that T26 will no doubt have been 'self-modifying' to correct minor mistakes in their design & that this data will probably have been in turn, passed onto Australia to help address some issues.

ALL of this takes time, so trying to compare the Mogami to Hunter isn't like comparing apples to apples.


...& Happy New Year to all South of the Equator.

SA
My point was more about the reality that even Japan's order for Mogami-class frigates did not just start right out of the gate at a rapid production tempo, and that there was time spent on various pre-production activities.

I would think that a number of the 'Australianization' changes would have had an impact more on the detailed design phase and less on production, unless someone stuffed up and put the cart before the horse (or would this be the stern before the bow?) and had production start ahead of the design being finalized.

Something like this did happen, sort of, with the Hobart-class DDG's, but this was because a design change was essentially forced by a change elsewhere. I am specifically referring to the change in heliborne air-dropped LWT's following the retirement of the SH-2G(A) and the replacement of the S-70B2 Seahawks with MH-60R 'Romeo' Seahawks armed with Mk 54 LWT's instead of the originally planned for MU-90 LWT's. With the adopt of the Mk 54 LWT and the fuel they used, the hangar magazine LWT storage system had to be changed to effectively mitigate potential hazards. Unfort the Hobart-class DDG's design had already been completed when the MH-60R order was placed, with the lead ship getting laid down about 15 months after the initial order was placed and about 14 months before the first MH-60R delivery.
 

spoz

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
There were a number of other changes as well, several systems were “white boxed”; and there were changes to a number of development items, such as ATI, late in the design process and after construction of the first blocks had started.
 

StingrayOZ

Super Moderator
Staff member
At the moment Japan are producing 2 Mogamis a year but will up the tempo with a third yard coming online. We need to copy this.
I don't think we need 3 continuous small frigate lines. But we could certainly copy and benchmark the Japanese production output of a yard.

Henderson seems to be/is well sized for this type of ship tho, dimensionally. 17x143m. Two would fit pretty nicely in their build hall. They could easily be benchmarked against the Japanese yards for efficiency and cost. Historically the Japanese are *VERY* good at exporting build expertise, just historically not in ship building. Toyota/Mitsubishi/Nissan etc are famous for running/operating plants all over the globe. Kanban, kaizen, 5S and the whole lean manufacturing movement came out of Japan. I would rather henderson be a fully utilised and efficient yard, than 3 slow building yard lines. But then again, I am not sure if CIVMEC intends to tie itself completely to just building naval ships there.

Osborne should stay focused on larger ships and the submarines. Building bigger and more complex projects but at a slower pace. Something like 6-9 larger surface combatants. Plus 9 SSN.

If civmec wants to take on more civilian work at henderson then there is the opportunity to rejuvenate the old forgacs site at Newcastle, which they already own. It would never be as large as complex as henderson or osborne. But could take on smaller ship builds, possible civilian builds.
If we have no intention of using these sites, they will atrophie, then closed and gone forever never to be re-established. If we intend to use them, we should include plans for them. They are kind of orphaned on the east coast now. But allocating work is a highly political issue now.

Starting projects is hard. Having a system of rolling and evolving will be much less expensive, risky, stressful, hard.
 

iambuzzard

Well-Known Member
I don't think we need 3 continuous small frigate lines. But we could certainly copy and benchmark the Japanese production output of a yard.

Henderson seems to be/is well sized for this type of ship tho, dimensionally. 17x143m. Two would fit pretty nicely in their build hall. They could easily be benchmarked against the Japanese yards for efficiency and cost. Historically the Japanese are *VERY* good at exporting build expertise, just historically not in ship building. Toyota/Mitsubishi/Nissan etc are famous for running/operating plants all over the globe. Kanban, kaizen, 5S and the whole lean manufacturing movement came out of Japan. I would rather henderson be a fully utilised and efficient yard, than 3 slow building yard lines. But then again, I am not sure if CIVMEC intends to tie itself completely to just building naval ships there.

Osborne should stay focused on larger ships and the submarines. Building bigger and more complex projects but at a slower pace. Something like 6-9 larger surface combatants. Plus 9 SSN.

If civmec wants to take on more civilian work at henderson then there is the opportunity to rejuvenate the old forgacs site at Newcastle, which they already own. It would never be as large as complex as henderson or osborne. But could take on smaller ship builds, possible civilian builds.
If we have no intention of using these sites, they will atrophie, then closed and gone forever never to be re-established. If we intend to use them, we should include plans for them. They are kind of orphaned on the east coast now. But allocating work is a highly political issue now.

Starting projects is hard. Having a system of rolling and evolving will be much less expensive, risky, stressful, hard.
Hi Stingray. What I meant was to emulate the Japanese efficiency and pace of construction, not necessarily a third yard. Continuous build of a design and evolving it over each batch is a sensible way to go. You see how they originally ordered about 20 Mogamis, then partway through decided to improve the design and order more. That's what we need to do. Not order the six Hunters and when production is finished, sit down, twiddle our thumbs, and try to figure what to do next. Keep building continuously with no set end point. As hulls start to get older replace them.
Politicians think in finite numbers, but we need to be fluid in our thinking about defence.
You're right about Newcastle, I think smaller hulls could be handled there and Henderson expanded to increase the drumbeat. We may even end up producing hulls under license for the Japanese, or at the very least blocks for their own production.
I'm sure they would jump at the chance as their situation is more perilous than ours.
Thinking outside the box is something we desperately need to do.
I'm interested in everyone's thoughts on this.
As for Williamstown, it's as dead as a Dodo. It couldn't be revived anyway as it;s in my home state Victoria! Enough said.
 
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