Royal Australian Navy Discussions and Updates 2.0

Going Boeing

Well-Known Member
As time is a critical criteria, selection of an in-service or under construction GP frigate without requiring too many design changes is important so the Type 31 does look like a reasonable choice for the RAN especially with its speed & range. One option to minimise the volume of design changes would be to migrate the radar sensor mast, SAAB 9LV combat system, etc from the ANZAC class to the new type. As all the integration has been completed, the design changes would mainly be structural within the new hull which, being larger, should be less restrictive. Most observers have reported that the ANZAC sensor systems are of a good quality, but the ships lack sufficient firepower in missile cells so, if fitted to the Type 31, this would result in a well balanced ship.

On a different matter, can someone who is knowledgeable on the SAAB 9LV system advise whether it can be upgraded to include a CEC capability or is that function only available with an AEGIS fit, as planned with the Hunter class? Obviously, with the RAN fitting most of the fleet with with the 9LV system, it would desirable to have more vessels CEC capable.
 

spoz

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Unfortunately, you can’t just plug and play like that; such a change to the T31 would require considerable redesign. Without even thinking about the mechanical and hull impacts, the mast requires specific power and cooling to be available at certain locations and in certain quantities. It is very unlikely that an “off the shelf” T31 would have that in the precise locations and quantities required. It would undoubtedly be possible to mount some CEA radars in a T31 derivative; but the key word here is “derivative”

CEC is not Aegis dependant, see for example Navy Expands NIFC-CA To Include F-35,Anti-Surface Weapons, but whether 9LV is capable of being adapted to it I couldn’t say.
 

Stampede

Well-Known Member
An interesting article in todays ASPI by Jennifer Parker.



11 to 12 major warships is not enough!

Worth a read and pertinent to the recent conversation around our current and future fleet mix.


Cheers S
 

Brissy1982

Active Member
An interesting article in todays ASPI by Jennifer Parker.



11 to 12 major warships is not enough!

Worth a read and pertinent to the recent conversation around our current and future fleet mix.


Cheers S
I am dearly hoping the review of the surface fleet reaches the same conclusion! 11-12 MFUs is not and never has been the right number - in my view the minimum should be 18, to ensure that at least 6 are available at any given time.

I am also dearly hoping that the review identifies that what is Tier 1 and Tier 2 needs to be defined not in terms of relative capability within the RAN fleet's MFUs, but rather in terms of what the RAN needs to deter and if necessary fight in a future conflict. In regional terms, the RAN's current Hobart class DDGs are not Tier 1 surface combatants, they are very much Tier 2 in terms of size, endurance and firepower. Tier 1 surface combatants means Tico class CGs, Burke class DDGs and their South Korean and Japanese derivatives, and most importantly in terms of potential adversaries, the PLAN Type 055. The future RAN needs to have at least 6 and preferably 9-12 MFUs that are genuinely Tier 1 in regional terms - in this regard ~10,000 tons, 6,000+ NM range at 15-18 knots, and 90+ VLS cells seems to be the minimum genuine Tier 1 standard.

Will the review recommend a genuine Tier 1 capability for the RAN? Will there be enough political will to follow through on such a recommendation? How long would it take to get such capability built and into service? Only time will tell... but I fear our history of under-resourcing the RAN and the ADF more generally is likely to repeat itself.
 

76mmGuns

Active Member
Australia has a long history of stuffing up as far as ship selection is concerned. Even when we get selection half right we still find a way to stuff things up.
Australia certainly does. But some of it is 20/20 hindsight as well. I think the Arafura isn't too bad in it's intended role. It's just that Australia ideally needs multiple levels of ships, which it probably can't afford in peace time. At the risk of drifting into fantasy fleet time and getting suspended, Australia might need: front end guided missile destroyers and anti sub frigates, then a long range ship armed like a corvette, then OPV's, in following numbers 6/12/9/15. (just ballpark armchair amateur number crunching) . It's actually more like the structure the RN has with Type 45/26/31/River's, although I feel they came across this ship series by accident.

Anyway, back to waiting for the results of the Arafura's gun selection and the progression of the Hunters.
 

Morgo

Well-Known Member
Australia certainly does. But some of it is 20/20 hindsight as well. I think the Arafura isn't too bad in it's intended role. It's just that Australia ideally needs multiple levels of ships, which it probably can't afford in peace time. At the risk of drifting into fantasy fleet time and getting suspended, Australia might need: front end guided missile destroyers and anti sub frigates, then a long range ship armed like a corvette, then OPV's, in following numbers 6/12/9/15. (just ballpark armchair amateur number crunching) . It's actually more like the structure the RN has with Type 45/26/31/River's, although I feel they came across this ship series by accident.

Anyway, back to waiting for the results of the Arafura's gun selection and the progression of the Hunters.
Wouldn’t it be marvellous to get something like this.

Honestly if we got 6 of each of the first 3 in your mix and 12 OPVs I’d be delighted. But I’m not holding my breath.
 

H_K

Member
2 more articles on fleet options.
Steve Kuper at DefenceConnect advocates for a larger fleet mix of:

6-9 Hobart AWDs (including 3-6 new builds with extra VLS payload module)
6-9 Hunters (upgunned)
9 GP frigates
9 light frigates / corvettes for long-range patrols
8 Arafura OPVs (instead of 12)
1 extra Supply class AOR

+ Creation of a single “militarized” Coast Guard to take on the lower end patrol ships
+ Increased Antarctic patrol capability

Not sure the above is very realistic. He promises a future article to look at personnel issues… should be interesting.

This is a good summary of the state of play and the 4 options currently out there for Tier 2:

- Upgunned OPV (Lurssen C90)
- Small corvette (TKMS K130)
- Light frigate (Navantia Alfa 3000)
- GP frigate (Babcock A140 / T31)
 
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John Fedup

The Bunker Group
2 more articles on fleet options.
Steve Kuper at DefenceConnect advocates for a larger fleet mix of:

6-9 Hobart AWDs (including 3-6 new builds with extra VLS payload module)
6-9 Hunters (upgunned)
9 GP frigates
9 light frigates / corvettes for long-range patrols
8 Arafura OPVs (instead of 12)
1 extra Supply class AOR

+ Creation of a single “militarized” Coast Guard to take on the lower end patrol ships
+ Increased Antarctic patrol capability

Not sure the above is very realistic. He promises a future article to look at personnel issues… should be interesting.

This is a good summary of the state of play and the 4 options currently out there for Tier 2:

- Upgunned OPV (Lurssen C90)
- Small corvette (TKMS K130)
- Light frigate (Navantia Alfa 3000)
- GP frigate (Babcock A140 / T31)
Kuper must have visited British Columbia and sampled the province’s big cash crop, junior MJ. Might be a necessary fleet but building and crewing let alone funding this plus 8-12 SSNs, agree, it is not realistic.
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
2 more articles on fleet options.
Steve Kuper at DefenceConnect advocates for a larger fleet mix of:

6-9 Hobart AWDs (including 3-6 new builds with extra VLS payload module)
6-9 Hunters (upgunned)
9 GP frigates
9 light frigates / corvettes for long-range patrols
8 Arafura OPVs (instead of 12)
1 extra Supply class AOR

+ Creation of a single “militarized” Coast Guard to take on the lower end patrol ships
+ Increased Antarctic patrol capability

Not sure the above is very realistic. He promises a future article to look at personnel issues… should be interesting.
I am quite certain that the list above is unrealistic, likely to an unfeasible degree. The idea of increasing the number of Hobart-class DDG's in the RAN is a major tell that the entire idea is vapourware. As has been mentioned off and on whenever someone raises that idea in this thread, new Hobart-class DDG's cannot be built to the design currently in service. Some of the systems currently fitted and in use are no longer in production, so the existing design would need to be modified so that available equivalent systems can be fitted. Since the design already has to be modified, and the current vessels already have major upgrades planned (albeit limited by needed availability across a range of issues) there is little sense in trying to rework an already too small design so that more units can be built. This is especially true when on considers that little or no time advantage would be gained in attempting re-use the design, since a number of the long-lead items would be years away from being ready to install, even if the units were ordered today.

It is also interesting to note that the suggestion is for 6-9 Hunter-class FFG's, when the current plan is already for nine.

It is also worth noting that whilst terms like light frigate, corvette, and OPV are being thrown around, I have recently begun to wonder just how some using those terms actually differentiate between the different types of vessels.

From how most corvette designs are, one can either have armament or range, not both. Also one cannot really increase the size of a corvette, because in doing so it would change from being a corvette to a frigate. Similarly, as I understand it, some of the major differences between an OPV and a longer-ranged corvette are the electronics fitout and possibly some of the damage control and survivability features. The armament is likely to be comparable, simply because the displacement and space aboard both types of vessels is likely about the same and therefore has much of it dedicated to fuel and stores. Some of the major differences between a corvette and an OPV (and why a number of nations build and operate OPV's for patrol purposes) is that the build costs for an OPV of comparable size to a corvette are usually significantly less, much of this having to do with a much less significant electronics fitout which IIRC can at times double the cost of a warship

Three other questions which come to mind are;
  1. What timeframe is envisioned for all these vessels to potentially start being brought into service?
  2. Where are the personnel to crew these vessels going to come from?
  3. Where are the appropriately trained and qualified officers going to come from?


This is a good summary of the state of play and the 4 options currently out there for Tier 2:

- Upgunned OPV (Lurssen C90)
- Small corvette (TKMS K130)
- Light frigate (Navantia Alfa 3000)
- GP frigate (Babcock A140 / T31)
Has anyone in gov't, the ADF, or the RAN actually defined would be considered a Tier 2 vessel? Or alternately, what a Tier 1 vessel would be?

Until something like this occurs or the navel review is released, different vessel designer and builders can certainly make their respective marketing pitches but there is nothing to measure the proposals against.
 

Redlands18

Well-Known Member
2 more articles on fleet options.
Steve Kuper at DefenceConnect advocates for a larger fleet mix of:

6-9 Hobart AWDs (including 3-6 new builds with extra VLS payload module)
6-9 Hunters (upgunned)
9 GP frigates
9 light frigates / corvettes for long-range patrols
8 Arafura OPVs (instead of 12)
1 extra Supply class AOR

+ Creation of a single “militarized” Coast Guard to take on the lower end patrol ships
+ Increased Antarctic patrol capability

Not sure the above is very realistic. He promises a future article to look at personnel issues… should be interesting.

This is a good summary of the state of play and the 4 options currently out there for Tier 2:

- Upgunned OPV (Lurssen C90)
- Small corvette (TKMS K130)
- Light frigate (Navantia Alfa 3000)
- GP frigate (Babcock A140 / T31)
He should have stuck with the Headline and left it at that. Absolutely and utterly clueless and probably the biggest hint of how clueless he truly is, he adds just ONE AOR. Just three AORs to support a fleet of that size :rolleyes:. Why on Earth would you Up gun the Hunters if you are going to build another 3-6 Hobarts and 9 GP Frigates? As it is the Hunters are going to have to be more than just ASW Frigates due to lack of Hobart numbers, with a fleet of that size you could leave the Hunters to ASW work alone, so why decrease their ASW capabilities.

A Coast Guard is not realistic for Australia, due to the very low population density in Northern Australia (the operational area). just one City of any size and a handful of small towns on the Australian Coast from Cairns in Northern Qld to Perth in WA.
 

Bob53

Well-Known Member
2 more articles on fleet options.
Steve Kuper at DefenceConnect advocates for a larger fleet mix of:

6-9 Hobart AWDs (including 3-6 new builds with extra VLS payload module)
6-9 Hunters (upgunned)
9 GP frigates
9 light frigates / corvettes for long-range patrols
8 Arafura OPVs (instead of 12)
1 extra Supply class AOR

+ Creation of a single “militarized” Coast Guard to take on the lower end patrol ships
+ Increased Antarctic patrol capability

Not sure the above is very realistic. He promises a future article to look at personnel issues… should be interesting.

This is a good summary of the state of play and the 4 options currently out there for Tier 2:

- Upgunned OPV (Lurssen C90)
- Small corvette (TKMS K130)
- Light frigate (Navantia Alfa 3000)
- GP frigate (Babcock A140 / T31)
Just assuming money and crewing were not an issue where would we base a fleet of this size? When I look at FBE it looks maxed out.
 

Bob53

Well-Known Member
He should have stuck with the Headline and left it at that. Absolutely and utterly clueless and probably the biggest hint of how clueless he truly is, he adds just ONE AOR. Just three AORs to support a fleet of that size :rolleyes:. Why on Earth would you Up gun the Hunters if you are going to build another 3-6 Hobarts and 9 GP Frigates? As it is the Hunters are going to have to be more than just ASW Frigates due to lack of Hobart numbers, with a fleet of that size you could leave the Hunters to ASW work alone, so why decrease their ASW capabilities.

A Coast Guard is not realistic for Australia, due to the very low population density in Northern Australia (the operational area). just one City of any size and a handful of small towns on the Australian Coast from Cairns in Northern Qld to Perth in WA.
Reckon we could do a Coast Guard Darwin, Cairns Geraldton Hobart. But it would be $$$$ to get crews and families relocated and accomodation. Assuming they take over OS Patrol Arafuras.
 
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hauritz

Well-Known Member
It is also interesting to note that the suggestion is for 6-9 Hunter-class FFG's, when the current plan is already for nine.
I can never quite understand the logic of cutting numbers just to replace it with a simular capability. Hunters 4 to 9 will be the cheapest and quickest builds in the series. All the hard work involved in setting up a production line only to throw it all away and start again.
 

StingrayOZ

Super Moderator
Staff member
Steve Kuper at DefenceConnect advocates for a larger fleet mix of:
36 surface Combatants!
9 Hobarts? Why so many of our most crew intensive ship?
Long range corvettes? That would be a Frigate then. How many different types? 6?
Well into dream fleet land. Again, how do we select these designs, many of which don't exist. How do we build them. How do we crew them. Where are they stationed. What is their mission. Why so many different classes? Why not just 18 Hunters and 6 Hobarts. Or just 36 Hunters?

Steve, your ideas are banned from DT!

He should have stuck with the Headline and left it at that. Absolutely and utterly clueless and probably the biggest hint of how clueless he truly is, he adds just ONE AOR. Just three AORs to support a fleet of that size
It not just that it is a large fleet. It is a thirsty fleet. You can get away with fewer AOR if you have more bunkerage on ships or you operate closer to home waters.

If you want heavily armed, high speed ships travelling long distances. Then they will require frequent supply. GT ships are fast, but notorious at chewing fuel as they have a specific speed they are optimized for. Diesels are more efficient, at multiple speeds, but you need a lot of them, and that takes up space, and man power.

18 is an achievable target. It is a huge growth, 50% increase, but it is achievable, build-able, affordable, crew-able, base-able. Its a number been talked about for years.

36 is just a number picked out of the air. Its candy store purchasing, where you want to have ship of every shape and flavor. Which is bad. The Americans don't have 30 different types of surface combatants. They have the Burkes, and will soon have the Constellation class, (and lose the Cruisers) and that is it. Two. Lots of those two, and some different flights, but two ships.

Since the design already has to be modified, and the current vessels already have major upgrades planned (albeit limited by needed availability across a range of issues) there is little sense in trying to rework an already too small design so that more units can be built.
It is possible to build flight II Hobarts, but it is not trivial. It would need a heavily revised design and new build program. And building Hobarts instead of Hunters is again, absurdity, that is the stupidest form of horse trading. They won't be cheap, they are still a growth limited platform, and they have a more specialized mission, to lead and control Air warfare. The RAND report on Navantia's offer on more Hobarts hasn't been made public, nor has the government responded, nor was there overtly strong signs at the recent European visit of airing the offer again or providing more detail. I agree it would be very hard, but I am open minded enough to say not impossible, and perhaps with a lot of work and justification it may be possible and there may be an argument to make it even reasonable. But not at the cost of hunters, as that is a ship further along in its development. Again IMO. Impossible is a big word, we can build pyramids, battleships and Saturn V rockets, its not impossible, its not practicable nor does it make any sense.

Spain has started keel on F-111, it is worth watching as a mid size navy project, and I assume many/any lessons on Hobart upgrades/new build Hobart's will come from their F-110 program build. But the work done on pitching the Navantia for the constellation class is already starting to age out, and the F-110 is already in build, which I assume would affect any Spain building of any ships for Australia. Its an interesting case study, as are other builds elsewhere.
 

Redlands18

Well-Known Member
Reckon we could do a Coast Guard Darwin, Cairns Geraldton Hobart. But it would be $$$$ to get crews and families relocated and accomodation. Assuming they take over OS Patrol Arafuras.
The problem is those positions are for the entire career and unlike the RAN there would be no equivalent positions in the major Southern Cities to rotate personnel. It's not just about money and accommodation either, it's also about opportunities for family members of serving personnel, it's also about being close to family and friends. This is one of the big reasons the RAN have trouble retaining Sub crews, because if you become a Submariner you are stuck in Perth for life and Perth is a lot more family friendly than Geraldton could ever be.
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
It is possible to build flight II Hobarts, but it is not trivial. It would need a heavily revised design and new build program. And building Hobarts instead of Hunters is again, absurdity, that is the stupidest form of horse trading. They won't be cheap, they are still a growth limited platform, and they have a more specialized mission, to lead and control Air warfare. The RAND report on Navantia's offer on more Hobarts hasn't been made public, nor has the government responded, nor was there overtly strong signs at the recent European visit of airing the offer again or providing more detail. I agree it would be very hard, but I am open minded enough to say not impossible, and perhaps with a lot of work and justification it may be possible and there may be an argument to make it even reasonable. But not at the cost of hunters, as that is a ship further along in its development. Again IMO. Impossible is a big word, we can build pyramids, battleships and Saturn V rockets, its not impossible, its not practicable nor does it make any sense.
Perhaps, but then again perhaps not. What IMO would really decide the matter is the degree of similarity between the internal design and layout of the existing Hobart-class destroyers and any new built DDG's that might get labeled as "Flight II". At some point, there would need to be recognition that a design had changed so significantly as to constitute a new class.
 

StingrayOZ

Super Moderator
Staff member
Perhaps, but then again perhaps not. What IMO would really decide the matter is the degree of similarity between the internal design and layout of the existing Hobart-class destroyers and any new built DDG's that might get labeled as "Flight II". At some point, there would need to be recognition that a design had changed so significantly as to constitute a new class.
Well, things are often done for the point of Optics or speed.

Is a Superhornet a simple evolution of a Hornet? Is a Flight III Burke similar to a Flight I? If we have to have a Hobart looking ship, with Hobart suppliers, "Hobart" style contract and organizational structure, because that is the only way the selection/build/support can be done shaving 5 years off the build, actually reduce the operating costs of the existing Hobart's through using the same support/supplier network, I can live with that. The "Advantage" of flight II Hobart's, is that, the existing network, the existing suppliers, existing contracts, existing integration into the RAN logistics, happier SME's, etc. It really has nothing to do with the design, or the floaty ship itself.

I don't love the Hobart design. Its a ship. Now quite old. Its a compromised ship as it tries to be a mini-burke, but cuts a lot of corners to get there. You get 50% of the fire power ~60-70% of the other capabilities, for 80%-100% of the cost and 70% of the crew. So there is never a point why anyone would build say 12 Hobart's, you would have built Burkes instead. Even the US didn't build F105/Hobarts when they looked at distributed lethality, the constellation is much more modern and had a lower risk profile.

Even then the US spent heaps further developing the design and customizing it for its low cost need. For them it works, 1 x LM2500 vs 4 x LM2500 in the burke, saving costs and complexity and fuel, electric propulsion has huge advantages for the USN. 60% of the crew. Yes, far less firepower, but the US already has mega firepower, they want more presence, they don't need more firepower. So trading in a tiny bit of fire power for 30-40% the presence and, a faster build rate as these can be built at smaller yards. Arguably they are better a patrols, and enforcement, but less able at mega high end warfighting. They made compromises, to get an existing design in the water faster, but it still works.

But Fincantieri doesn't really exist in Australia for a quick instant build. Really the only two are BAE or Navantia. We spent a metric shit ton of money and time working with these guys over the past ~20 years and they are basically it. Thales, Babcock, exist and are around and do important and useful work, but don't really have the SME, the existing networks as well as being propped up by BAE global who is mega huge and at some points blurs into the UK government, and Navantia, which is taps into Navantia Spain, and is clearly owned by the Spanish government.

Which is why Babcock didn't say they could build a ship in Australia all by themselves. They would need somewhere to basically adapt their arrowyard concept. Which likely means spending money and time in setting all of those things up. Which is more time and money before cutting steel on the first ship.

Navantia and BAE and NVL also have other stuff. Its not like they have only one ship design in their catalog.

To get a quick build corvette, NVL OPV80 to C90 is probably the only real Australian build option.
To get a quick build DDG, a Hobart II from Navantia is probably the only real option.
To get a quick build Frigate, a Hunter variant from BAE/ASC is probably the only real option.

Anything else we have to set up a new project, spec, tender the prime, tender the suppliers, cost estimates, contract, IP legalities, due diligence on everything including SME's and sub sub sub contractors, Etc. This costs billions for something like a ship and can take 5+ years. If we break contract, then there are huge penalties, that can cost more than if we had just built the ships and towed them off into the water and sunkex them.

Building a ship requires usually a decade or more relationship to build up, which is usually part of the tender purpose.

Right now the Australian defence industry is hugely upset about the DSR. They feel like governments, of both persuasions are trying to kill their businesses, and kill them.


He went on to say, ‘The DSR has opened a can of worms that cannot be closed. The DSR, by virtue of saying that speed to capability trumps Australian industry involvement, means that at every turn the excuse of not using an Australian company will be viable. Why? Because you actually have to put effort, time and money into getting Australian companies qualified for supply chains. If I have a pre-qualified company from overseas, my speed to capability is faster. We are not having a go at any prime contractor in this; this is wholly and solely directed at the federal government’-the failure of the Albanese Labor government. We acknowledge the government’s agreed recommendation from the DSR, stating that Australian industry content and domestic production should be balanced against timely capability acquisition, and that requires financial support. The issue is that there isn’t financial support. There is absolutely no new money from the Albanese government in the forward estimates in the next four years-not one new dollar.
The appetite for some wacky new arrangement that cuts existing suppliers out is very low. We aren't talking about unions or laborers here, but entire businesses and entire sections of the manufacturing economy. We are talking about completely wiping our the delicate defence industry (and those related to it) in Australia which has taken, more than 80 years to get where it is, and its barely hanging on.

In the type of war we are going into, having no logistically, or sovereign build capability is pointless. You might as well sink your navy before the enemy does. So ordering from existing projects that have significant Australian supply chains are strongly encouraged. It will speed up the project and make it more durable capability long term.
 

ADMk2

Just a bloke
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Well, things are often done for the point of Optics or speed.

Is a Superhornet a simple evolution of a Hornet? Is a Flight III Burke similar to a Flight I? If we have to have a Hobart looking ship, with Hobart suppliers, "Hobart" style contract and organizational structure, because that is the only way the selection/build/support can be done shaving 5 years off the build, actually reduce the operating costs of the existing Hobart's through using the same support/supplier network, I can live with that. The "Advantage" of flight II Hobart's, is that, the existing network, the existing suppliers, existing contracts, existing integration into the RAN logistics, happier SME's, etc. It really has nothing to do with the design, or the floaty ship itself.

I don't love the Hobart design. Its a ship. Now quite old. Its a compromised ship as it tries to be a mini-burke, but cuts a lot of corners to get there. You get 50% of the fire power ~60-70% of the other capabilities, for 80%-100% of the cost and 70% of the crew. So there is never a point why anyone would build say 12 Hobart's, you would have built Burkes instead. Even the US didn't build F105/Hobarts when they looked at distributed lethality, the constellation is much more modern and had a lower risk profile.

Even then the US spent heaps further developing the design and customizing it for its low cost need. For them it works, 1 x LM2500 vs 4 x LM2500 in the burke, saving costs and complexity and fuel, electric propulsion has huge advantages for the USN. 60% of the crew. Yes, far less firepower, but the US already has mega firepower, they want more presence, they don't need more firepower. So trading in a tiny bit of fire power for 30-40% the presence and, a faster build rate as these can be built at smaller yards. Arguably they are better a patrols, and enforcement, but less able at mega high end warfighting. They made compromises, to get an existing design in the water faster, but it still works.

But Fincantieri doesn't really exist in Australia for a quick instant build. Really the only two are BAE or Navantia. We spent a metric shit ton of money and time working with these guys over the past ~20 years and they are basically it. Thales, Babcock, exist and are around and do important and useful work, but don't really have the SME, the existing networks as well as being propped up by BAE global who is mega huge and at some points blurs into the UK government, and Navantia, which is taps into Navantia Spain, and is clearly owned by the Spanish government.

Which is why Babcock didn't say they could build a ship in Australia all by themselves. They would need somewhere to basically adapt their arrowyard concept. Which likely means spending money and time in setting all of those things up. Which is more time and money before cutting steel on the first ship.

Navantia and BAE and NVL also have other stuff. Its not like they have only one ship design in their catalog.

To get a quick build corvette, NVL OPV80 to C90 is probably the only real Australian build option.
To get a quick build DDG, a Hobart II from Navantia is probably the only real option.
To get a quick build Frigate, a Hunter variant from BAE/ASC is probably the only real option.

Anything else we have to set up a new project, spec, tender the prime, tender the suppliers, cost estimates, contract, IP legalities, due diligence on everything including SME's and sub sub sub contractors, Etc. This costs billions for something like a ship and can take 5+ years. If we break contract, then there are huge penalties, that can cost more than if we had just built the ships and towed them off into the water and sunkex them.

Building a ship requires usually a decade or more relationship to build up, which is usually part of the tender purpose.

Right now the Australian defence industry is hugely upset about the DSR. They feel like governments, of both persuasions are trying to kill their businesses, and kill them.




The appetite for some wacky new arrangement that cuts existing suppliers out is very low. We aren't talking about unions or laborers here, but entire businesses and entire sections of the manufacturing economy. We are talking about completely wiping our the delicate defence industry (and those related to it) in Australia which has taken, more than 80 years to get where it is, and its barely hanging on.

In the type of war we are going into, having no logistically, or sovereign build capability is pointless. You might as well sink your navy before the enemy does. So ordering from existing projects that have significant Australian supply chains are strongly encouraged. It will speed up the project and make it more durable capability long term.
The crucial point in that well argued point to me, is there is simply no new money for defence in the forward estimates over the next four years.

Are they going to simply reverse that and “crash program” an entirely new fleet of ships?

That strikes me as one of the most unrealistic circumstances I’ve ever heard of when it comes to defence. There is no new “anything” in the DSR. Every single thing in it either already existed in defence capability planning and is being kept at previous levels, or has been scaled back / cancelled In many instances.

They are however on the basis of a “quick” 3 month review about to do the complete opposite of everything they have done in Government to date and suddenly find a bunch of money (likely north of AUD $10b for a serious combat fleet) and workforce out of nowhere?

Yeah. Of course they are… :rolleyes:
 

hauritz

Well-Known Member
I remember I had dealings with a small company that used to supply to Mitsubishi motors when they used to build in Adelaide. When Mitsubishi ceased local production that company pulled its doors shut a few weeks later. That is the problem with being a small sub-contractor that is almost completely dependent on a single client. They take out business loans, buy specialised machinery, hire and train staff and then when their only real source of income doesn't need them any more they just crash and burn. Once they are gone it takes years to re-establish them.

There is also a substancial ripple effect if you lose sub-contractors. You could stuggle to find spare parts or even people that can maintain your existing equipment. All stuff you need to think about before cutting back on Hunter numbers or cancelling the OPV program.
 

Stampede

Well-Known Member
The crucial point in that well argued point to me, is there is simply no new money for defence in the forward estimates over the next four years.

Are they going to simply reverse that and “crash program” an entirely new fleet of ships?

That strikes me as one of the most unrealistic circumstances I’ve ever heard of when it comes to defence. There is no new “anything” in the DSR. Every single thing in it either already existed in defence capability planning and is being kept at previous levels, or has been scaled back / cancelled In many instances.

They are however on the basis of a “quick” 3 month review about to do the complete opposite of everything they have done in Government to date and suddenly find a bunch of money (likely north of AUD $10b for a serious combat fleet) and workforce out of nowhere?

Yeah. Of course they are… :rolleyes:
What I may want and what I think we will get are two different things.
Increase in large major warship numbers would be desirable, but nothing this side of 2040.
What will we get?
Realistically a medium gun for the Arafura Class and I'd suspect this Class will be divided into two tranches, with a larger version {enhanced] with a bit more clout.
Probably with a dedicated helicopter hangar and some modest bolt on bits.

As stated where's the money!

Looking at Army and Airforce post DSR, I have low expectations for Navy.

SSN's have a price.

Cheers S
 
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