At Osborne south, The first Hunter begins construction next month and isn’t due till 2031, and then follow on Hunters are approx every 2 years, 2033, 35, 37, 39, 41, 43, 45, 47 for all nine. Cutting 3 from the order, you’ll have 6 by 2041 with likely a hobart replacement following, The type 83 fits nicely with the timeline as it would enter service post 2043, about 4-5 years after the first of class enters service in the u.k in the late 2030s(much like ssn aukus dates). This path would likely involve getting 3 extra hobarts in the next 8 years built in spain or less likely civmec. A spanish hobart build leaves room for civmec to build smaller tier 2 ships, a civmec Hobart build possibly means tier 2 ships built overseas. A GP frigate instead of the hobarts also a possibility, less capability but much less cost, reduced construction time and less crew.
Another option at Osborne south is an alternating build of type 26, 2 asw hunters and 1 heavily armed awd x 3, eg 2031asw, 33asw, 35awd, 37asw, 39asw, 41awd, 43asw, 45asw, 47awd. This path could see civmec produce tier 2 ships post 2025/26 after the 6th Arafura is complete If the opv build is cut. What they will build is anyone’s guess, unlikely to be hobarts with this path so you can assume GP frigates or corvettes, tier 2 ships. No overseas build.
The third option is all 9 hunters become awd’s And other asw capabilities increased, uuvs, p8s, undee water survellience, aukus subs, usv’s with towed arrays, strix quad coptees off small ships with dipping sonars etc
