Sorry that I’m not sticking with the script if I point out the absence of logic in an argument and flawed assumptions (like F35As can operate from civilian airfields...maybe for about 5 minutes) that always seem to point to a favourable outcome for the good guys. If we all have to agree here then boot me out.
They are not my bright ideas. I am rehashing from Hugh White, Paul Dibb, Marcus Hellyer, Malcom Davis etal. And I’m not a child and understand what an eco system of platforms looks like. I do not have military experience but I do have 35 years experience in complex broad scale logistics in both the maritime and land domains so understand what it takes to get complex kit and the bodies to operate long distances into stinking hot, dusty, muddy & difficult locations and keep them supplied, maintained and effective.....and none of my experience has been while someone is really trying to stop you or while trying to hide movement from a potential adversary. All which I am certain, add several more layers of complexity. I am also aware of the very small things that can and often do go wrong with even moderately complicated machinery that can keep the job from being performed to design.
As to the chances of the scenario I put forward happening ....low ....it was never intended to be scenario for today. I should of said what if there is a cyclone that cuts the roads in every direction..... but is a theoretical circumstances against the rules here? .... but someone thinks we may be heading for darker times....why are we having another Whitepaper? Because regional and global security circumstance have changed rapidly downward and some one above my pay grade thinks we need to have a re think. And I suspect the white paper will not say we are spending too much on defence. I think it will determine that we need additional capabilities in our North and that we need to spend more or re focus.
What am I suggesting we give up? I’m not. If it’s up to me there is more $ and we borrow at 1% and lock it in for 10 years and use a chunk of it on National road rail and other infrastructure which may include a few more bare bases and use another chunk of it to start churning out more engineers and scientists.
Maybe my point has been poorly made ...I have been making the point that getting the right systems to theatre isn’t as simple as some members here seem to think.
I agree with the above two. But, in addition to that...
Many of those names are out of date, sorry. And unfortunately, ASPI seems to be slipping in quality. That recent three-parter was the type of "analysis" I expect from a school student. Too simplistic, too one-dimensional and too platform focused. As for Dibb and White - if they were dog's they'd have got a green needle by now. Especially White's recent work. I like Davis, and have helped with some of his work in the past, but even he falls into the trap of platforms = strategy.
I appreciate your experience with civilian logistics, a field that we sorely need to actually learn from. But you are missing the key point:
Why are we fighting in northern (especially western) Australia?
It isn't pretty to say, but why do I need to stop an assault on the shore anywhere between Perth and Gladstone? Landing at Geraldine? Cool - that doesn't hurt Australia. Darwin? Casualties, but it doesn't hurt. Most of our population, industry and key areas lie between Adelaide and Brisbane - that's what is important.
There is so much nothing out there that it's just too hard to fight up there and not worth the cost. Let REDFOR have extended lines of communication - and then allow the Collins / Attack / F-35 / long-range strike platforms to feast. Do you know how much fuel a battalion of T-80s chews? Or their spares? the log chain will be so long and spindly that it'll make the German Army in the east in 1942 look solid and well supplied. You advance 2000 km from the NW shelf and what have you got? Nothing. Except 2000 km of supply chain (on top of the SLOC you need to keep open). Even the American's would struggle with that. This is the number 2 problem with putting bases in the north. Just keeping them supplied from the major ports in Brisbane, Melbourne, Sydney and Adelaide is too hard - even with the rail links.
Now, offshore operations with our forces is different. So the pretty range rings of ASPI show that we can't strike everywhere. That's why we have more platforms than a F-35 with bombs. It's a Joint Force, not an Air Force. You know what can kill a REDFOR aircraft 550 miles from Tindal? A LAND 19-7b battery. Or HMAS Brisbane. You know what can hit a ship 600 nm from Townsville? Sub's or major fleet units. Gosh, depending where it is a K9 / HiMARS may even have a shot. Like many on this board, you are focused on the kit. The kit is easy - I can buy fighters, ships or tanks at the drop of a hat. What is more important is the bits that glue all the kit together and the people. If we are clever, there are ways to avoid needing a F-35 at 550 nm. With the recent rediscovery of information warfare, other non-kinetic options or a decent DFAT policy, we will actually have many options.
Beyond that, some other points. The number 1 problem with putting bases in the north are the people. I love Darwin and would go back in a heartbeat - except there are no jobs there for my partner and the schooling isn't as good as it is in the ACT, so that'll cost my kids something. I don't want to pay that price. Furthermore, my rank generally has me move on every two years. A soldier may spend 5 - 10 years in one location. How well do you sell that? Getting people to stay in Darwin, Cairns and Townsville is hard work. Where is another population centre at least that big to put another base? They are barely large enough to support our forces now - there is no other place for a base.
We aren't getting another White Paper at the moment, nor are we changing the Defence Budget. I actually don't think there is a need for the former (it'd help sure, but other than time, there is nothing that has fundamentally changed). As for the Budget - I challenge the department to start spending it appropriately and smartly before we get a raise. We are the only department that has a budget for 20 years (normally its 12 months, maybe 4 years) yet we stuff up constantly.
