Response to North Korea Missile launch

[Wild Weasel]

As has been reported, it is cloud cover and lack of visibilty that has held back the launch to date. It has also been reported that the Taepodong II must be launched with a week to a month, ( Actual time is anyone's guess. ) after being fueled.

So basically, don't change that dial!

 

[KGB]

No one's going to invade NK. Why? Despite cultural ties the economic strain reunification would impose on South Korea would be crippling at this point. When Germany reunitedm west Germany was a huge economy and East Germany wasn't at starvation level yet there were significant sacrifices to be made. I even saw a German sports official in a TV interview attribute the dip in Germany's World Cup strength to reunification.

A starving nation to feed and clothe is quite a deterrent.

 

[Wild Weasel]

Invade? That's really a little absurd, I think. However, shooting down the missile is quite possibly what could happen if they actually launch it. That would be quite the achievement for any nation, and would be seen as a quite dramatic display of technological superiority.

 

[Snayke]

We were only discussing a military scenario. Not allowed to discuss politics so we don't.

 

[Wild Weasel]

21 JUN 06

The US has successfully tested the RIM-161 (SM-3 LEAP) BMD missile again. This was another mid-course interception, an astounding 100nm outside the atmosphere, and more than 250nm down-range. Four Aegis ships were involved, including a USN CG which launched the interceptor, a USN DDG which tracked the accuracy of the SPY-1 radar and FCS, and a Japanese Kongo-class DDG which observed the test.
Apparently this test had nothing to do with the current NK missile crisis. This situation just seems to get more and more tense, and surreal by the minute.

A test of the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System was successful in using a Standard Missile 3 interceptor to destroy a target warhead that separated from its booster rocket.
http://www.mda.mil/mdalink/html/mdalink.html

http://www.mda.mil/mdalink/pdf/06news0018.pdf

 

[Big-E]

The US doesn't even have to be the one to shoot it down. Japan could do it and say she was protecting her airspace.

 

[Wild Weasel]

Quite true, and by all rights Japan should have the honor of defending their own territory. However, as far as I have researched, Japan has not yet taken delivery of the SM-3 missile. I'm betting that they soon will.

Clearly, this program's continuing development must be accellerated and positive results must be demanded and achieved- particulalry from the land-based system. What's more, if the ABL 747 was operational, the US would even have a third option- and probably a much more effective one at that.

I believe that this will probably not be the last time that the West will have to face an ICBM threat, whether it be an accident, an act of provocation, or outright aggression from a nuclear power.
The stakes are far too high to shelve the program in the hopes that if it is ignored, the ICBM threat will just go away.

 

[kilo]

has the DPRK (N. Korea) shown any intent to try and prevent the use of seaborne ballistic missle defenses? they could possibly use their sang-o, romeo, or yugo class or their missle/torpedoe/patrol ships and thier air assets to compromise any naval forces that the us has in the sea of japan if they were willing to take heavy losses this would be unlikely however since that would risk losing the ability to counter any retaliation by the U.S. or S. Korea or Japan

 

[Big-E]

has the DPRK (N. Korea) shown any intent to try and prevent the use of seaborne ballistic missle defenses? they could possibly use their sang-o, romeo, or yugo class or their missle/torpedoe/patrol ships and thier air assets to compromise any naval forces that the us has in the sea of japan if they were willing to take heavy losses this would be unlikely however since that would risk losing the ability to counter any retaliation by the U.S. or S. Korea or Japan

I doubt NK could even locate US ABM assets much less attempt to take them out. To do so would be an act of war if in international waters.

 

[kilo]

yes i agree i was just suggesting that if N. Korea wished to expend there military resources in that way it is a possibility that they may try to do so

 

[Wild Weasel]

yes i agree i was just suggesting that if N. Korea wished to expend there military resources in that way it is a possibility that they may try to do so

Take on a group of Aegis cruisers and destroyers? That would simply be suicide for the units that get picked to make this "glorious" sacrifice, would be taken as a grossly provocative act, and would be the opening act that launches a full-blown regional conflict.

What I expect- and could only imagine the North would consider as the only "logical" course of action- would be to de-escalate this situation as quickly, and carefully as possible. The US and Japan have little to lose in this case, whereas NK could get crushed like a bug if shots are fired.

 

[kilo]

yes it is unlikely that they would take this course of action. i fail to understand however what north korea seeks to gain from this test. it will only remind the american and the world population that N. Korea is very much a rogue NUCLEAR state and make them stand behind their government if it chose to take hostile action

 

[Snayke]

yes i agree i was just suggesting that if N. Korea wished to expend there military resources in that way it is a possibility that they may try to do so

That wouldn't be expanding, that'd be effectively killing their naval assets that were ordered to go.

 

[Big-E]

i fail to understand however what north korea seeks to gain from this test. it will only remind the american and the world population that N. Korea is very much a rogue NUCLEAR state and make them stand behind their government if it chose to take hostile action

If they get the ABM defense to take a shot at it and we miss they would have acheived something pretty significant. If we shoot it down it will seal the fate of Kim Jong-Il as a failure. Amazing but this single event could be the greatest factor in the NK/US stand-off.

 

[Snayke]

That it is. It is a VERY important event, although most people in the world do not realise that. If the US misses, their program will prove to be useless and all that wasted money people have been critisizing will be proved and the US will just look bad. It if hits, the program will be proved effective and North Korea will realise anything they can make and launch can easily be repelled.

Very very big event, and nobody could be the wiser.

EDIT: You could say that the North Koreans are doing it in hopes the US will miss as its not developed. They are betting a lot to make the US look a bit bad.

 

[RubiconNZ]

I believe its something that not everyone has cottoned on to either. I think youre both right its a pivot point:duel , however that is if the US decided to engage, maybe they should put all four on standby, The ABL is flying? Deploy the PAC3 and send the DDG with the SM3, and have a pair of interceptors ready to go, do you all think that it would be easy to conceal if the the US launched Interceptors from Alaska if they did miss, as in could the US say they never tried? Or would it be something that would get out straight away?

 

[Snayke]

Unless there was a leak, I don't think many people would notice or the launch site for the missiles is close to populated areas. Doubt there'd be many to witness it. But, I don't know what their bases in Alaska are like.

 

[Big-E]

do you all think that it would be easy to conceal if the the US launched Interceptors from Alaska if they did miss, as in could the US say they never tried? Or would it be something that would get out straight away?

Only way the US could say they never tried is either have Japan shoot it or vaporize it with a laser. All the ABM launches can be tracked from space.

 

[Wild Weasel]

The base at Fort Greely appears to be quite remote, though there is a small town relatively close to the ABM base. If the launch occured during daytime hours, it's possible that it could be witnessed by a number of people. The people who live there are obviously aware of the mission of the base, and most probably have access to network news broadcasts- so it's likely that if they were alerted to the fact that NK had launched the missile, they could be watching the horizon to see if an ABM is launched to intercept it.

I know I would be watching for it.

Frankly, in light of the numerous failures that have plagued the ground-based interceptor during tests- the US should probably stick to the much more successful SM-3's.
But then again, we still can't be sure that the ships in the area are even loaded with the SM-3 missile.

From what I've read recently, it's quite probable that the ships do have the SM-3, because the US has had the foresight to recognise, and prepare for a threat to emerge from North Korea at some point. The missile entered service with the USN more than a year ago, so where else would the new weapons have been deployed, if not to the Sea of Japan?

 

[Sea Toby]

A picture is worth a thousand words. Lets compare the night lights of North and South Korea.