Just to refresh some discussion going in to the new Marlin subs for the PN:
Pakistan Seeks 3 Subs From France
New Design Would Free DCN of Spanish Partnership
By PIERRE TRAN, PARIS
Pakistani interest in three attack submarines is forcing France to make hard decisions over industrial interests vested in the DCN naval systems company and diplomatic and economic relations with Spain and India, analysts said.
Islamabad intends to spend $1 billion to $1.2 billion on three patrol submarines, preferably of a new design from DCN but possibly of the German 214 class, a Pakistani official said.
But the potential sale of high-tech weapons to Pakistan may be too much for the French government to swallow. The deal would steady employment at DCN's Cherbourg sub yard, but would likely antagonize India, with whom Paris recently signed a defense agreement. New Delhi also is a submarine customer, having recently purchased six of DCN's Scorpene attack subs.
The sale of an all-French design also might raise hackles in Spain. The Spanish are partners in building the Scorpene, but Spain's Navantia yard
is teaming with Lockheed Martin on its S-80 boat.
The Pakistani official said Islamabad "is interested in a single-hull submarine," distinct from quieter, more expensive double-hulled boats.
"We have made it known there is a requirement for three submarines."
Islamabad wants a formal offer within six months from Armaris, the naval marketing joint venture of DCN and French systems house Thales, so it can order the subs within a year, the official said.
The country also is looking to buy 25 to 30 highly capable fighter aircraft, and is considering the Dassault Rafale, Eurofighter Typhoon and Saab JAS 39 Gripen, the official said.
A Pakistani delegation is due to go to Italy next month to see the Typhoon go through flight trials, he said.
The pursuit of the Pakistan deal shows DCN wants to develop new subs for export.
"This is a logical move, given DCN's strong installed base in SSKs [diesel-powered attack submarines] and the attractions of the SSK market," said Sash Tusa, an analyst at brokerage Goldman Sachs. But going it alone might be seen as undermining all the recent talk of building European defense, French government and industry executives said.
The submarine sale underlines the clash between industrial and diplomatic interests for France, an analyst said.
"Industry needs it, but the French government does not want to contribute to a potential arms race in the region and cannot afford to upset India," said Loic Tribot La Spiere, chief executive of the think tank Centre d'Etude et Prospective Strategique.
French military ties with Pakistan date back three decades. The Pakistani Navy was an early export customer of DCN's Daphne submarine in the
mid-1960s, setting the bar for other navies that operated near the Persian Gulf. Pakistan bought three Agosta 90B boats, dubbed the Khalid class,
in the mid-1990s. Pakistan's Air Force has flown the French-built Dassault Mirage III and V fighters.
This longstanding relationship gives DCN an edge in the competition, the Pakistani official said.
"We know their processes, their procedures," the official said.
Wanted: Export Approval
But if Paris withholds export approval, Pakistan might turn to the 214 submarine built by Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft (HDW), part of Germany's ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems. It also might consider buying the subs from China, he said.
DCN is keen to sell, but has had trouble prying export approval from the high-level Commission Interministérielle D'exportation des Matériels de Guerre.
Officially, Armaris has not proposed a new submarine, because it lacks approval for an offer from the committee. But that did not prevent Armaris officials from making an informal product briefing on a DCN design to a Pakistani delegation led by a senior naval officer in mid-February, here.
The Pakistani official said delegation members were given to understand that DCN had been cleared by the export committee to make an offer.
A French industry executive, however, said there is no offer because clearance has been withheld. And a French defense official said, "The attitude towards Pakistan is a very cautious one, where great prudence is needed."
Armaris declined comment. The Ministry of Defense spokesman was not immediately available. The Foreign Ministry and Prime Minister's office
referred questions to the Ministry of Defense.
A DCN spokeswoman said the company did not discuss its clients and declined comment. Still, the Pakistani official said his government expects a formal offer next month from Armaris.
DCN's new design, code-named Marlin, closely resembles the 10-year-old Scorpene design, but would include newer technology, including features of the Barracuda nuclear attack boats to be built for the French Navy.
Marlin would have an air-independent propulsion (AIP) unit, the Pakistani official said. AIP, an alternative to batteries, allows longer periods of running submerged.
Pakistan's third and last Agosta boat is being fitted with a Mesma AIP system, and the two earlier boats will be retrofitted. Pakistan has not asked for the Scorpene because it does not want to buy the same product as the Indian Navy.
DCN barely made any money on the Agosta deal, the French defense official said. He said it was unlikely the French government would agree to sell new subs at basement prices, the official said.
Pakistan said it got a bad deal because it paid $1.2 billion for the three subs, including a 50 percent down payment on signing in 1994, and the program is three years late.
Independence from Spain
If a Pakistan deal can be struck, DCN would regain the ability to export subs without Spanish participation.
In 1997, the French company partnered with Navantia predecessor Bazan to design the Scorpene because it lacked enough money to do it alone.
But healthy sales have padded DCN's cash accounts to some 2 billion euros ($2.4 billion), giving it enough money to invest in its own design.
Still, the Spanish connection was key to selling Scorpene to Chile, which opened up the Latin American market. But when Navantia installed a
combat management system from Lockheed Martin, DCN officials took the rejection of a similar French system as a snub.
One French analyst said Navantia's purchase of the Lockheed system was influenced by the U.S. administration, which is seeking a way to keep its 2001 pledge to sell eight diesel subs to Taiwan. Since Spain has limited trade with China, Madrid could sell the S-80s to Taiwan with little economic consequences, the analyst said.
Into the balance must be thrown France's relations with India, which has just bought six Scorpene subs armed with MBDA anti-ship missiles.
French President Jacques Chirac visited India and signed a defense agreement on Feb. 19 aimed at boosting industrial cooperation, as well as a
preliminary pact to help New Delhi develop civil nuclear energy. During Chirac's visit, India's state airline formally inked a purchase of 43 Airbus airliners, worth $2.5 billion at list price, and 15 ATR regional turboprops.
Dassault Aviation is waiting to see the terms of India's tender for 126 combat aircraft, and is ready to pitch the Rafale fighter jet, having withdrawn the Mirage 2000-5 from competition.
Christopher P. Cavas contributed to this report from Washington.
Source: DefenceNews.com (Article emailed to me by a friend)
, first selling Augosta to PN, then Scorpene to IN and now Marlin to PN.