NZDF - Now and the Future.

[Padman]

Whale watching frigates?

A bit of the LUH topic, but I see that the Greens want the Navy to send frigates to protect the whales in Southern Ocean. A waste of navys combat resources, may also tempt Japan to send frigates to protect whalers. The OPVs would be better vessels for this mission I think, less provocative.

There is some irony in this situation, in that the Greens were very much against the acquisition of the frigates.

 

[Padman]

Why NH-90?

Back to helicopter issue. What was the rationale for pruchasing the NH-90 a very new helicopter design, over a more proven design such as Cougar?

I know that NH-90 brings commonality with Aussies, and it has a ramp. But Cougar has better internal troop carrying capability (28), and better slung cargo capability (4500kg). Also could have worked out a deal that would include other pure Eurocopter products, such as Fennec or EC635 for LUH role.

Cougar is proven product and would assume that all development costs have been met, so unit price would be better than a design that is barely out of development stage.

 

[Whiskyjack]

Back to helicopter issue. What was the rationale for pruchasing the NH-90 a very new helicopter design, over a more proven design such as Cougar?

I know that NH-90 brings commonality with Aussies, and it has a ramp. But Cougar has better internal troop carrying capability (28), and better slung cargo capability (4500kg). Also could have worked out a deal that would include other pure Eurocopter products, such as Fennec or EC635 for LUH role.

Cougar is proven product and would assume that all development costs have been met, so unit price would be better than a design that is barely out of development stage.

Probably because it will not be supported in the future beacuse every Cougar user will be using NH90, Eurocopter is a major shareholder in NH Industries (to the best of my knowledge). That also raises the possibility that the Cougar may not have been offered.

 

[Markus40]

Unfortunatly i wasnt on the panel to select the NH90, but it would seem obvious from the selection of the NH90 that this Helicopter despite its cost covers the broad aspects expected of it from Humanitarian duties to Troop transport and military mission aspects like a limited ground suppression role.

It would seem from the stats that the NH90 comes relatively close to the operational stats of a cougar and would seem obvious to me that operational costs would still favour the NH90.

Back to helicopter issue. What was the rationale for pruchasing the NH-90 a very new helicopter design, over a more proven design such as Cougar?

I know that NH-90 brings commonality with Aussies, and it has a ramp. But Cougar has better internal troop carrying capability (28), and better slung cargo capability (4500kg). Also could have worked out a deal that would include other pure Eurocopter products, such as Fennec or EC635 for LUH role.

Cougar is proven product and would assume that all development costs have been met, so unit price would be better than a design that is barely out of development stage.

 

[KH-12]

Basically the Cougar / Puma design is nearly 40 years old (OK it has been tweaked abit over the years) and if you intend to keep an asset in service for a reasonably long period of time you want to go with the latest technology out there. Plus I suspect things like the composite contruction will reduce issues such as fatigue later in the service life. I thought the AW139 might have made the cut, has reduced capacity but we could have afforded a whole lot more of them to compensate, I think the lack of a dedicated military version and the Australian decision killed it off as a possibility, apparently it is quite an excellant helicopter.

The Helicopter crewman training is another requirement for the LUH selected.

 

[Stuart Mackey]

IMO the Govt needs to do two things.
1. Decide what it wants the NZDF to do e.g.;
a. if it wants to deploy frigates then it needs another frigate;
b. if it wants to be able to deploy troops into the Pacific and wider region in low to medium threat conditions then it needs to fund the lift and fire power.
c. let the NZDF and MoD get on with it.
snipage

This is, by and large, what has happned,with tight government oversight. Remember the nature of this government: It is budget and ideaogy driven, especially with respect to defence.

 

[Sea Toby]

Yes, that is what this government is doing, with very tight purse strings. Since this government doesn't wish to commit to warfare operations more than 6 months at a time, in their mind their is no need for a third frigate, much less increase the size of its armed forces. They were able to eliminate the most expensive item on the list for new equipment, the air combat force, because they saw no need for it. Using these savings they were able to buy new the APCs and LOVs for the army, and the new patrol ships for the navy. They were able to extend the lives of the P-3s and C-130s, and replace the Boeing 727s with used 757s on the cheap. However, the new helicopter program is going to cost, and they can't avoid it, especially after their East Timor study.

This study called for a larger 10 ton helicopter to replace the Hueys, and the NH90 is the smallest largest helicopter available which meets the 10 ton requirement. Since they chose a medium role Eurocopter for the main troop carrying role, its more than likely will stay in house and choose a Eurocopter helicopter for the light role. The newest light Eurocopter design sold in numbers worldwide is the EC-135. There are a number of light helicopters to choose from, most in the same price range, so it really doesn't matter much which helicopter is chosen. If it hadn't been for their own study, this government may have chosen a smaller lighter helicopter for the main troop carrying role, such as the EC-145.

I think the price for the NH90 has alarmed this government, its been one year since the bids were due. Both the medium and light types of helicopters are needed by the defence forces, I can't imagine this government not buying both types. But I wouldn't be surprised if the number of helicopters ordered isn't enough to meet the armed forces requirements. There may be an option to order more later. However, keep this in mind, when was the last time New Zealand ever used an option? I am of the opinion if the money isn't there for the NH90s now, it won't be there in the future either.

The only really expensive item left on the LTDP is the ESSM upgrade for the Anzacs. Since this government opposed their purchase in the first place, one wonders whether they will continue to spend more on them. I have a feeling they will have no choice, as the US Navy will soon stop supporting the sea sparrows whose shelf life will expire.

 

[Whiskyjack]

I think the price for the NH90 has alarmed this government, its been one year since the bids were due. Both the medium and light types of helicopters are needed by the defence forces, I can't imagine this government not buying both types. But I wouldn't be surprised if the number of helicopters ordered isn't enough to meet the armed forces requirements. There may be an option to order more later. However, keep this in mind, when was the last time New Zealand ever used an option? I am of the opinion if the money isn't there for the NH90s now, it won't be there in the future either.

The only really expensive item left on the LTDP is the ESSM upgrade for the Anzacs. Since this government opposed their purchase in the first place, one wonders whether they will continue to spend more on them. I have a feeling they will have no choice, as the US Navy will soon stop supporting the sea sparrows whose shelf life will expire.

I think there is a good chance that the ANZACs will get the Aussie upgrade. I say this because it seems fro a brief look that the budget suggested is comparable to the Aussie costs. It also gives the Govt time to decide if the RNZN ANZACs are the last two. Plus it keeps the RNZN compatible with NZ’s major partner.

As for the Helo capability, my guess is 6 NH90s with an option of 2 + 2, with 8 LUH. Or 8 NH90s over an extended time frame with 8 LUH delivered up front to relieve the UH1s.

 

[Markus40]

The ideaoligy mind set within the government is one of "peacekeeping" not war fighting. I believe this is one of the fundemental problems our personel feel out there having friends and collegues in the NZDF who feel the same way.

I am still unconvinced the government is taking defense seriously and especially when it comes to promising to put our defense forces back to a standard of where they should be, after 2 decades of neglect..

Theres two dilemas for the defense forces one being a "peacekeeping" ideoligy mindset and the other the government not taking our defense force requirements the full distance like they should do. Defense should be the first priority in any governments expenditure. Unfortunatly we have a government that doesnt.

This is, by and large, what has happned,with tight government oversight. Remember the nature of this government: It is budget and ideaogy driven, especially with respect to defence.

 

[KH-12]

The ideaoligy mind set within the government is one of "peacekeeping" not war fighting. I believe this is one of the fundemental problems our personel feel out there having friends and collegues in the NZDF who feel the same way.

You would have thought that an updated and capable helicopter force is fundamental to successfully supporting "peace-keeping " operations and yet the government seems to be getting stage-fright when it is time to open the wallet.

Was'nt the F-16 purchase supported by the Quigley report ?

 

[Markus40]

I had a conversation with John Carter the member of National, when he was Defense spokesman several months ago, and he told me that the extra money IE $4.5 Billion allocated to the upkeeping of the defense forces for the next 10 yrs, wasnt money being put into upgrading or paying out on new equipment as such, but rather keeping the pay structure in place and keeping the inflation levels on the correct course for keeping the existing levels of aquisitions in place. He said some money would be for new munitions as such but not for new capital equipment.

He explained that this amount of money over and above the NORMAL allocation for defense spending wouldnt cut it for the levels required for new C130s, P3s, ESSMs, Harpoons, etc stretched over the 10 year period.

So knowing what this government is like in their ideology towards defense IE Peace keeping, despite the NZDF being in a better place than they were under National in the Nineties, i would have to agree with his statement.

I am of the opinion that for the forseeable future only small acquisitions will be made, IE Munitions, extra small numbers of Helos, ESSM Seasparrows, and small electronic upgrades to existing platforms. IE Aircraft and Naval Ships. Nothing much else. The rest is to pay the extra number of personel which is a significant part of that budget and infrastructure.

I think there is a good chance that the ANZACs will get the Aussie upgrade. I say this because it seems fro a brief look that the budget suggested is comparable to the Aussie costs. It also gives the Govt time to decide if the RNZN ANZACs are the last two. Plus it keeps the RNZN compatible with NZ’s major partner.

As for the Helo capability, my guess is 6 NH90s with an option of 2 + 2, with 8 LUH. Or 8 NH90s over an extended time frame with 8 LUH delivered up front to relieve the UH1s.

 

[Markus40]

Yes, but its more than the wallet. Its politics. The government doesnt want to be seen by our small population of creating a Defense force that goes beyond the boundaries of major capital expenditure for a small war machine that can operate with our allies, because this seen as being aggresive. That wont create votes in the next election. Defense has been a murky question in most Nzers minds because of our isolationist mindset, and because we have a "peacekeeping" government governed by the United Nations we are operating at the minimum levels of our abilities to be able to carry out small operations.

The Labour government allocated the Derek Quigly report, and he was against the purchase at first, but after some time having seen the F-16 purchase a good one, went in favour of the F-16 purchase.

You would have thought that an updated and capable helicopter force is fundamental to successfully supporting "peace-keeping " operations and yet the government seems to be getting stage-fright when it is time to open the wallet.

Was'nt the F-16 purchase supported by the Quigley report ?

 

[Whiskyjack]

IMO opinion lack of money is not really an excuse fir NZ. While I do not think NZ should be spending 3% of GDP, there is no reason why the budget could not be 1.4% of GDP, which would be NZ$2.2b or an extra $800m a year in today’s terms.

The problem (which is similar to Canada in many respects) is that NZ is protected geographically by distance and Australia (Canada by the US). There is no realistic threat to NZ by way of a military threat. Add to that the perception that NZ is to small to make a difference internationally and there is just no motivation to spend the money on combat forces. Hence money has been spent on civil surveillance and peace keeping.

In spite of a lot of rhetoric I can see no politicians coming up with the money in the near future either.

The Army is the best placed to become more combat orientated with minimal money needed to get it there in terms of hardware. The Navy is lucky that it has the Two ANZACs, if the decision for the programme had have been 1993 instead of 1988 I do not think there would be any frigates in NZ today. The RNZAF has a potential precision strike platform in the P3 (which would be limited), along with ASW for the sake of upgrades. Otherwise the RNZAF is a transport force for the Army.

However no matter how capable the army, even with the MRV it has limited tactical mobility outside of NZ, so IMO (as I have said above, so sorry for the repeat) the NZDF needs to look at more capable tactical sealift into the Islands and much greater recon/surveillance assets with the use of UAVs. Achievable in both personnel and budget terms in the NZ political environment.

 

[KH-12]

It's not like you have alot of choice with regards to replacing the helicopter fleet, it is basically worn-out , no matter how good your maintenance you can't keep patching aircraft up forever, I mean they are 40 years old and helicopters lead a very tough life. The Sqoiux numbers have dwindled severely over the years through attrition and are a 60 year old design. I am sure the public would be very supportive of the RNZAF maintaining a modern rotary wing force especially at the moment with large parts of the South Is cut off by snow.

 

[Whiskyjack]

I had a conversation with John Carter the member of National, when he was Defense spokesman several months ago, and he told me that the extra money IE $4.5 Billion allocated to the upkeeping of the defense forces for the next 10 yrs, wasnt money being put into upgrading or paying out on new equipment as such, but rather keeping the pay structure in place and keeping the inflation levels on the correct course for keeping the existing levels of aquisitions in place. He said some money would be for new munitions as such but not for new capital equipment.

I realise that Marcus.

The ANZAC upgrade is listed in the LTDP with a budget of $300m (which fits the Aussie budget). It would have be announced at the end of the decade with first ship undergoing refit around 2011. So $300 spread out over 4 years is actually achievable in the current budget structure which spends roughly $300m a year in capital at the moment with some capital injections such as the Helo project.

It is one of the few projects I can see happening.

 

[EnigmaNZ]

We seem to follow Oz in many of our purchases, 105 howitzer, Seasprite, Anzac, NH90, etc.

The NH90 fits in the Herc with some work, I believe that was important, it would be inconvenient to have to deploy the MRV everytime you wanted to send a NH90 offshore for humanitarian reasons.

Helen herself stated they may look at AAH if there was a need for air support, so isn't totally against the idea, more against the idea I think, of capacity that hasn't proven to be of use, the Skyhawks, perhaps she forgot we once used one to pull over a Taiwanese trawler illegally fishing in our waters. I think the purse strings will open, if you can demonstrate the need for a purchase.

 

[Markus40]

I hope you are right with the purse strings, and Helen can open her "eyes" to the purchases needed, but very doubtful. I would think the allocated money for the defense force might be delved into with our increasing deficit which has been increased from the news last night.

We seem to follow Oz in many of our purchases, 105 howitzer, Seasprite, Anzac, NH90, etc.

The NH90 fits in the Herc with some work, I believe that was important, it would be inconvenient to have to deploy the MRV everytime you wanted to send a NH90 offshore for humanitarian reasons.

Helen herself stated they may look at AAH if there was a need for air support, so isn't totally against the idea, more against the idea I think, of capacity that hasn't proven to be of use, the Skyhawks, perhaps she forgot we once used one to pull over a Taiwanese trawler illegally fishing in our waters. I think the purse strings will open, if you can demonstrate the need for a purchase.

 

[Markus40]

Whisky Jack, I just want to first congratulate you on your promotion to being Chief Warrant Officer. Welldone. You deserve your medals.!

Yes , i can see the ANZAC up grade happening too, and i agree with you on the smaller purchases, and thus the reason why i believe nothing else will take place for a considerable time to come, other than smaller ancillory purchases. IE The Army Fire Support Equipment.

I realise that Marcus.

The ANZAC upgrade is listed in the LTDP with a budget of $300m (which fits the Aussie budget). It would have be announced at the end of the decade with first ship undergoing refit around 2011. So $300 spread out over 4 years is actually achievable in the current budget structure which spends roughly $300m a year in capital at the moment with some capital injections such as the Helo project.

It is one of the few projects I can see happening.

 

[Markus40]

Sure, it is a major credit to our engineers in our NZDFs for having the Rotor fleet around for the time they have. Not to mention the P3 and C130s.

I think the type of aircraft the RNZAF have chosen to operate were robust for our conditions and this too has contributed to the extended life span for operations within our forces.

It's not like you have alot of choice with regards to replacing the helicopter fleet, it is basically worn-out , no matter how good your maintenance you can't keep patching aircraft up forever, I mean they are 40 years old and helicopters lead a very tough life. The Sqoiux numbers have dwindled severely over the years through attrition and are a 60 year old design. I am sure the public would be very supportive of the RNZAF maintaining a modern rotary wing force especially at the moment with large parts of the South Is cut off by snow.

 

[Whiskyjack]

Whisky Jack, I just want to first congratulate you on your promotion to being Chief Warrant Officer. Welldone. You deserve your medals.!

Yes , i can see the ANZAC up grade happening too, and i agree with you on the smaller purchases, and thus the reason why i believe nothing else will take place for a considerable time to come, other than smaller ancillory purchases. IE The Army Fire Support Equipment.

Thanks Marcus,

I guess we all forget that by 2011 there may be a different Govt, and different strategic environment, which may mean different priorities again.

As an outside chance if Australia gets the M777, I can see 16-20 systems coming NZs way around 2013.