North Korea VS South Korea

[Firehorse]

Yes, military 1st policy, in their worlview, is to ensure that they have means to defend themselves, to allow their independent existence. But this isn't unique- earlier, Pakistanis also said that they will get nukes even if that means eating grass!
I don't agree with the last sentence. That ship has a great symbolic/propaganda value to both sides- that's why it's still commisioned in the USN, and NK won't return it that easily. IMO, they will keep her until a peace treaty and diplomatic relations are concluded/established with the USA.

 

[eckherl]

Yes, military 1st policy, in their worlview, is to ensure that they have means to defend themselves, to allow their independent existance. But this isn't unique- earlier, Pakistanis also said that they will get nukes even if that means eating grass!
I don't agree with the last sentence. That ship has a great symbolic/propaganda value to both sides- that's why it's still commisioned in the USN, and NK won't return it that easily. IMO, they will keep her until a peace treaty and diplomatic relations are concluded/established with the USA.

Well if they think by using the USS Pueblo for leverage in a peace treaty will help them then it is only wishful thinking on their part, they have had it for this long and we have pretty written her off even though the U.S Navy still carries her on their books. They have done other nasty things also to the U.S military, if you get a chance read up on the Panmunjom ax murder incident as a example, that set my hatred towards them. If we ever can take uncle Kim alive I hope that when we turn him back over to his country that we stipulate that they use a tree in that area to introduce him to the hangmans noose.

 

[Firehorse]

No, I think you misread them. They aren't going to use it to get a treaty. They'll return it as a good will gesture to show that this state of war is finaly over. We are talking of a very different culture and mindset. I don't know much about that DMZ incident you are referring to, but IMO they may have considered the removing of a tree as a violation by the US side. Speaking of trees, (I'm not a treehugger, but do love nature) I hope that some day DMZ will be turned to a nature conservation area!

 

[eckherl]

No, I think you misread them. They aren't going to use it to get a treaty. They'll return it as a good will gesture to show that this state of war is finaly over. We are talking of a very different culture and mindset. I don't know much about that DMZ incident you are referring to, but IMO they may have considered the removing of a tree as a violation by the US side. Speaking of trees, (I'm not a treehugger, but do love nature) I hope that some day DMZ will be turned to a nature conservation area!

No - they killed an American officer because they stated that the dear old leader Kim Ill Sung planted that tree personally, that tree was in the way of a observation post and it was not a violation to cut it down.

And actually there is all kinds of wildlife along the DMZ such as tigers roaming around in no mans land with other animals that people thought were pretty much gone in Korea.

Either way we will find out the next chapter with North Korea will be, they are already stalling on the nuke deal and ROK has a newly elected hardline president who has pretty much stated that no more rewards for bad behavior.

 

[weasel1962]

Re:

North Korea will not have air protection in any future misadventure in the south.

Just looking at "at-hand" assets,
24 A10s (25th FS) = 576 mavericks
60 F15s (ROKAF) = 720 JDAMs
60 AH1S (ROKA) = 480 TOWs
48 AH-64 (US Army) = 768 Hellfires

Total: 2,544 targets per sortie.

Haven't counted, F5s, F16s, F4s + reinforcements from Jpn, PacAF, fleet, B2s etc. The KPA simply doesn't provide enough targets.

It'd probably take less than a month to complete a conventional invasion of NK.

 

[Firehorse]

..that tree was in the way of a observation post and it was not a violation to cut it down.

So, I'm lost here- who tried to cut it down? If it was not a violation, why did they attack Americans, instead of talking it over?
Yes, I heard from a former US soldier who personally saw a tiger killing a deer there- the Korean tiger thought to be extinct, but maybe not!

 

[eckherl]

So, I'm lost here- who tried to cut it down? If it was not a violation, why did they attack Americans, instead of talking it over?
Yes, I heard from a former US soldier who personally saw a tiger killing a deer there- the Korean tiger thought to be extinct, but maybe not!

The UNC security force went out to cut down a tree that was blocking their view of the North Korean side near the bridge of no return, while attempting to do this they were jumped by about thirty North Korean soldiers with axes, this UNC force of 12 civilian workers and security guards was lead by two American officers, both were killed, they were unarmed due to weapons restrictions in that area. The North Koreans stated that they were upset that we would chop down a tree planted personally by Kim ll Sung and viewed it as a insult to their leader. If you can find it, read the book written by Maj. Wayne A. Kirkbride called DMZ, excellant reading.

 

[weasel1962]

Re:

North Korean "deadly" Air Force Fighters:

100+ Mig 17
100+ Mig 19
200-250+ Mig-21
50+ Mig 23 (acquired 1985)
40 Mig 29 (first acquired 1985)

 

[Waylander]

I expect choppers to have a very hard time if they want to do anything else than defensive/delaying actions in support of the ground troops.

The low level airspace of NK is going to be so full of metal from AAA that IMHO one cannot expect Apaches or Cobras to conduct deep strike operations over NK territory.
The same goes for fastmovers which want to get low. PGMs from higher altitude is the way to go. Anything else is going to be risky.

And while it is nice to count the possible maximum number of PGMs the real hits are not going to match this figure. And there are a lot of possible targets.

As I stated before one has to fly sorties against the NK artillery, against the NK chain of supply, directly against advancing NK forces and at the beginning one has to fly SEAD/DEAD missions to surpress/destroy the NK SAM shield.
They might not have the newest equipment and the USAF and ROKAF shouldn't have that many problems to disable their SAM shield but it has to be done reducing the sorties which can be directed directly against other NK assets.
And there are going to be CAP and escort missions as well as wild weasel missions to support the strike packages even if most of the air and SAM threat is disabled.

All this is reducing the overall amount of sorties directed against the imminent threat of NK artillery and ground forces.
Add to that reduced air power due to bad weather (because NK isn't going to attack in bright sunshine) and one might have real big problems to stop the NK advance during the early phase of a new NK attack onto SK. Could be some really bloody days till the NK attack is stopped and even more bloody if they manage to reach some cities.

 

[Grand Danois]

I expect choppers to have a very hard time if they want to do anything else than defensive/delaying actions in support of the ground troops.

The low level airspace of NK is going to be so full of metal from AAA that IMHO one cannot expect Apaches or Cobras to conduct deep strike operations over NK territory.
The same goes for fastmovers which want to get low. PGMs from higher altitude is the way to go. Anything else is going to be risky.

And while it is nice to count the possible maximum number of PGMs the real hits are not going to match this figure. And there are a lot of possible targets.

As I stated before one has to fly sorties against the NK artillery, against the NK chain of supply, directly against advancing NK forces and at the beginning one has to fly SEAD/DEAD missions to surpress/destroy the NK SAM shield.
They might not have the newest equipment and the USAF and ROKAF shouldn't have that many problems to disable their SAM shield but it has to be done reducing the sorties which can be directed directly against other NK assets.
And there are going to be CAP and escort missions as well as wild weasel missions to support the strike packages even if most of the air and SAM threat is disabled.

All this is reducing the overall amount of sorties directed against the imminent threat of NK artillery and ground forces.
Add to that reduced air power due to bad weather (because NK isn't going to attack in bright sunshine) and one might have real big problems to stop the NK advance during the early phase of a new NK attack onto SK. Could be some really bloody days till the NK attack is stopped and even more bloody if they manage to reach some cities.

I believe the bolded part was directed at me. I only wanted to point out that inventory numbers was not the bottleneck. Sat guidance is all weather (I realize you're talking severe conditions), so overcast is not a showstopper wrt fixed positions. Also, a B-1B takes 24 GBU-31 JDAM 2k lbs bombs internally, which reasonably quickly racks up the number of hardened aimpoints hit.

But I do agree with your conclusion. It's just the finer points I'm being pedantic about.

 

[weasel1962]

Re:

That's why the US Army pulled back from the border. The whole border region is meant to be a killing zone ~50km in depth.

Once North Korea starts moving any assets (and it will need to) into & across the DMZ, its going to be fair game for the AF and army aviation.

No one bothers to plan for a North Korea invasion. Its absolutely meaningless. Despite all public US announcements about bringing democracy to xyx. Its a waste of time and effort. May have been worth something in 1950 but today,50,000 sq miles of North Korean rock and sand is not even worth one human life.

Containment has been extremely effective in the case of North Korea.

If however, hypothetically, the US does intend to invade North Korea, AAA isn't going to be a deterrance. There's just too much cluster/precision munitions capabilities to exploit.

First, the USAF will shift the F15/A10 units from coast to bases in SK, Jpn. The CVGs will plot their courses.

F-15s & F-18s will establish high level air superiority capabilities with a few F16s/18s focussing on mid-altitude wild weasel missions to take out the abysmal SA-2 & 5s radar sites.

JSTARs/Global hawks will start flying at altitudes far beyond AAA ranges to identify AAA sites along the routes (with satellite intel as well).

They will assess the least defended route along the breath of Kaesong to Kumgangsan and then blast a narrow route all the way to Pyongyang with everything from A10s to B2s. Won't even need choppers except to ride shotgun.

NK Assets outside of the route that move towards the route will be interdicted in designated killzones. That takes away a significant proportion of AAA capabilities because of the dispersal.

After OIF, I don't think that's a capability beyond the USAF and ROKAF. Kim has a legitimate fear of US might (although a misjudge reading of US intentions).

 

[Waylander]

I believe the bolded part was directed at me. I only wanted to point out that inventory numbers was not the bottleneck. Sat guidance is all weather (I realize you're talking severe conditions), so overcast is not a showstopper wrt fixed positions. Also, a B-1B takes 24 GBU-31 JDAM 2k lbs bombs internally, which reasonably quickly racks up the number of hardened aimpoints hit.

But I do agree with your conclusion. It's just the finer points I'm being pedantic about.

No it was more directed at weasels counting of available maximum number of PGMs.
I agree that just overcast weather is not going to save NK asstes from airstrikes. I was really thinking about some bad ass Taifun or Snowstorm limiting the ability to fly sorties from SK airbases.

The Bones are defenitely going to be an important asset. One just has to look at the recent conflicts. IIRC the B1-Bs delivered >20% of the bombload during Kosovo, OIF, in A-stan, etc.

And I don't want to defenitely rule out that Nk forces are bloodily stopped by ROKA forces and USA reinforcements which are heavily supported by ROKA, USN and USAF air support.
I just think that there is the possibility of NK being able to perform a relatively successufull offensive during the early phase of a war if some circumstances play into their hands.

Maybe one should even consider a possible NK attack while the US is busy to perform concentrated airstrikes onto another country like for example Iran.

 

[Grand Danois]

Sorry, my bad. I wasn't paying attention.

 

[Chino]

NK will forever be the buffer China needs to counter US/foreign powers in East Asia. With NK gone, China will have American forces at her doorstep.

NK is actually 100 times more important to China than Taiwan.

Taiwan is just a "pride" issue. But NK is a security issue. So whatever scenario for NK, factor in the 100% certainty of Chinese intervention.

 

[swerve]

NK will forever be the buffer China needs to counter US/foreign powers in East Asia. With NK gone, China will have American forces at her doorstep.

Not if Korean unification is tied to the withdrawal of US forces. China would probably see that as a gain.

 

[Waylander]

Mmmh, if NK attacks on their own without the slightest consultation of their Chinese allies I can imagine that China leaves them alone.
Even if this results in a unified and democratic Korea I could imagine that it doesn't need much pressure to make Korea throw the remaining US forces out of a unified Korea.

And the idea of a unified Korea on their border without US troops in it might be a better case for China than intervening into a bloody war it didn't want and which could result in a much bigger catastrophe (two nuclear powers fighting directly against each other).


And a unified Korea is going to have enoug problems with integrating the "stoneage"-north to be busy for the next couple of decades.

 

[swerve]

Waylander: exactly. I can imagine China reminding the S. Koreans & Americans that the troops occupying up to the border had better be Korean, to keep tension down, or even occupying border areas while loudly announcing that it's purely temporary, to restore order & bring in humanitarian aid pending a handover to a unified Korea, which they'll then suggest might be an opportune time for the withdrawal of all non-Korean forces, both their own and any others that might be around . . . . But I don't think they'd go further than that. They don't want the burden of a collapsed N. Korea under their management, & certainly don't want to fight the USA & S. Korea for it. As long as the US army is kept well away from the Yalu river, & the S. Koreans don't fortify the border when they reach it, they'll be content.

 

[Firehorse]

If the NK was to attack the ROK 1st, and moving across the DMZ, they would give very good reason for the PRC to intervene, ostensibly on their side &/or strike them from behind- either way, I don't see NK free of Chinese "advisers and volunteers". How many days can NK fight w/o Chinese fuel and food stuffs?

 

[eckherl]

If the NK was to attack the ROK 1st, and moving across the DMZ, they would give very good reason for the PRC to intervene, ostensibly on their side &/or strike them from behind- either way, I don't see NK free of Chinese "advisers and volunteers". How many days can NK fight w/o Chinese fuel and food stuffs?

If North Korea was to be that foolish and attack South Korea why do you think that China will offer them any assistance, you do realize that this ceasefire was brokered with assistance of the United Nations, how do you think that China will be viewed in their eyes, this would ruin them as a nation. And I do not buy into this myth that China cannot have a united Korea on its border, I agree with @Swerve that if they are given gaurantees in regards to U.S forces then their wouldn`t be any issues.

 

[weasel1962]

Re:

Let's see what are the assets that can operate in all weather operations.

F-15K = all weather
AH-1 = all weather
AH-64 = all weather
A-10 = all weather
JDAM = all weather
JSOW = all weather
Maverick = all weather
Hellfire = all weather
Global hawk = all weather
JSTARs = all weather

USFK has had almost 60 years to plan contingencies in Korea. Typhoons & Snowstorms are going to hurt NK ops far more than US/SK ops. Also typhoons don't last very long eg a few days at the most on peak. Also, no one can predict how typhoons move or where snowstorms will appear (at least with sufficient time for planning) and that's not going to help NK planning.

The NKs will also need to mass before any offensive and that's not going to go undetected.

The nightmare scenario is not weather but nukes. The issue there is the delivery method.