North Korea VS South Korea

[Chino]

Being guilty of derailing the thread, I hope to swing the thread back to the original topic of:

"what if NK invaded ROK"?

I would still feel that the US will not be spared involvement one way or another as many here wiser than me have opined.

And also that if NK invaded without consulting PRC, then PRC will definitely not support the effort.

However, once the first shot is fired, how it will play out is anybody's guess. China will still be very queasy about US involvement etc.

 

[Thery]

Being guilty of derailing the thread, I hope to swing the thread back to the original topic of:

"what if NK invaded ROK"?

I would still feel that the US will not be spared involvement one way or another as many here wiser than me have opined.

And also that if NK invaded without consulting PRC, then PRC will definitely not support the effort.

However, once the first shot is fired, how it will play out is anybody's guess. China will still be very queasy about US involvement etc.

At current situation if North Korea invaded South Korea, there is no doubt that US will enter the war. US may contact Russia and/or China before she sending in troops, but there is nothing to stop her supporting South Korea at the back.

On the other hand I don’t think China and/or Russia will enter the war even US sending in troops.

Here is the list of my reason:
-We are no longer in cold war era.
-Globalization and both China and Russia is no longer “true” communism.
-Modern military technology greatly reduced the effectiveness of a buffer state such as North Korea.

 

[swerve]

...In the case of the ROK we already had a preview of Korean nationalism over the tiny island of Dokdo/Tsushima that for all purposes derailed years of positive bilateral relations not helped by the antics of a band of small but very vocal nationalists of my own country who tried to claim the island in the first place....

I think you mean Takeshima. Tsushima is much bigger, & S. Korea formally relinquished any claim to it by the San Francisco Treaty of 1952.

 

[alexsa]

I am talking about buffer against a "foreign power". Thailand, is "foreign" but not a "power". Get it so far?

China and VN does not like each other, fact. But there is at least tacit agreement since the Sino-Vietnam War that VN will not again tie up with foreign power like Russia to threaten China's border.

1950s - 60s China supported the original Vietminh to kick out western armies.

1980s - China invaded VN to discourage a Soviet/VN pact to intimidate China.

NOW - The border has since been free of any foreign forces. Yes, including the "Thais" Admin: Comment and icon deleted. Make sure you re-read the Forum Rules about posting behaviour and etiquette.

I know my history and it still sounds like you are squirming as you were claiming that Vietnam is a buffer state now. That was what I was questioning.

Since you now seem to agree that Vietnam does not serve as a buffer to China I will stop wasting my time.

 

[DavidDCM]

Intervening in Vietnam in the past prevented it from becoming a foreign power's outpost - up to this day. So it absolutely is a buffer state now. No US or Russian influence at the sino-vietnamese border.

That's what Chino wanted to say.

 

[Chino]

Exactly. Thank you.

 

[alexsa]

Intervening in Vietnam in the past prevented it from becoming a foreign power's outpost - up to this day. So it absolutely is a buffer state now. No US or Russian influence at the sino-vietnamese border.

That's what Chino wanted to say.

No problem with that, as I said he was not very clear in his intent and the patronising sarcasim along the way did not help. Suggest we get back to Korea now.

 

[Firehorse]

Nationalist sentiments aside, in case China occupies NK, the ROK Government will have to bite their lip and say that they don't expect a permanent annexation/incorporation by the PRC. Pragmatic Koreans may have as much patience as the Chinese have with Taiwan. They know that now and in the foreseeble future NK is too big for them to swallow, even under the best of conditions. Koreans are "the same people" to an extent-there are regionalism, dialects, and socio-economic/cultural disparities, to name a few. Many defectors from NK have hard time to adjust to life in the South, and NK refugees & their descendants dating back from the Korean War occupy a different niche in society. W. Germany was in a far better position to absorb their Eastern brothers, but even then there were/are problems.

 

[Atilla [TR]]

Actually, Koreans and Japanese are related to each other, same with Turks and Mongols and Hungarians are related to Japs and Koreans as well they are all Altaic languages all similar to each other.

 

[Firehorse]

Mongols are not Tartars, and therefore they are not related to Turks. The Turcic language group isn't a determinant to group peoples. The Yakut, Kazakh, Hungarian, and Uzbek languages are all Turcic but those peoples aren't of the same stock as todays Azeris and Turks of Turkey. Similar language doesn't mean directly related. Many Indo-European languages are mutually unintelligible- compare German, Greek, and Irish. Even within the Slavic subgroub the Chech is very different from Russian! So, the Turcic languages have common origin but over millenia each tribal group such as aforementioned Yakuts absobed foreign elements- both racial and linguistic- that diluted their bloodlines. I hope we can agree. My computer isn't letting me copy links so I'll cite them later.

 

[Chino]

Admin. Text deleted, this comment was unnecessary. It's been dealt with and does not need to be commented on anymore.

 

[Atilla [TR]]

Mongols are not Tartars, and therefore they are not related to Turks. The Turcic language group isn't a determinant to group peoples. The Yakut, Kazakh, Hungarian, and Uzbek languages are all Turcic but those peoples aren't of the same stock as todays Azeris and Turks of Turkey. Similar language doesn't mean directly related. Many Indo-European languages are mutually unintelligible- compare German, Greek, and Irish. Even within the Slavic subgroub the Chech is very different from Russian! So, the Turcic languages have common origin but over millenia each tribal group such as aforementioned Yakuts absobed foreign elements- both racial and linguistic- that diluted their bloodlines. I hope we can agree. My computer isn't letting me copy links so I'll cite them later.

Actually genetic testing has reveled everything I said even though many Turks have mixed with different cultures. And I never said mongols where Turks I just said that they are all related. I have books on this matter I could right them out but they are in diferent languages other then Turkish as well.

 

[gf0012-aust]

This is an OSINT source that came in throughy my email as part of a Strategies Group that I'm a member of. As such I don't have a link for it as was "clean".


Text deleted as requested by original provider

 

[Gripenator]

This is an OSINT source that came in throughy my email as part of a Strategies Group that I'm a member of. As such I don't have a link for it as was "clean".

Admin: Text deleted as original source has been withdrawn

Excellent article GF, at the end the situation remains that all sides want as many options as possible that play to their advantage-particularly the NK regime as that is what it has been doing for decades as part of 'regime survival'.

Of greater concern is the NK nuclear arsenal and the potential for proliferation to the usual suspects-that is the conumdrum behind the recent policy moves by Sec. Hill and his 'carrot' package.

How do you personally asess NK's atomic arms capability?

I would believe that the risks of proliferation are far greater than the actual deterrent/threat value of the North's missiles, particularly in light of Japan's emerging BMD capabilities-rather, Kim's threat to export 'know-how' is the primary threat.

 

[Firehorse]

Actually genetic testing has reveled everything I said even though many Turks have mixed with different cultures. And I never said mongols where Turks I just said that they are all related. I have books on this matter I could right them out but they are in diferent languages other then Turkish as well.

To an extent, everyone is related- it's all relative. The Atabaskan speakers in N.America are said to be the only ones in the Americas of Sino-Tibetan lang. group. So, are the Apaches and Navahos closely related to Chinese & Tibetans? The Balkans were under Ottoman control for a long time. There is a film actor named Gojko Mitic from former Yugoslavia that played many Native American roles, and his face looks more like Turkish to me, although he could, in real life, pass as a Native American.

http://wazel.org/wildeast/bagojko.htm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gojko_Mitic

From the prev. post, these are in concert what I was saying all along:

Admin: Text deleted as original source has been withdrawn

There is a good Russian saying: "one's own shirt is closer to one's body!" If not politicaly, NK & China are "like lips and teeth", for better or worse!

 

[Gripenator]

To an extent, everyone is related- it's all relative. The Atabaskan speakers in N.America are said to be the only ones in the Americas of Sino-Tibetan lang. group. So, are the Apaches and Navahos closely related to Chinese & Tibetans? The Balkans were under Ottoman control for a long time. There is a film actor named Gojko Mitic from former Yugoslavia that played many Native American roles, and his face looks more like Turkish to me, although he could, in real life, pass as a Native American.

http://wazel.org/wildeast/bagojko.htm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gojko_Mitic

From the prev. post, these are in concert what I was saying all along:



There is a good russian saying: "one's own shirt is closer to one's body!" If not politicaly, NK & China are "like lips and teeth", for better or worse!

The first part of your post is totally irrelevant and stupid.

The second is patently false. Kim has shown his intention numerous times to seek closer ties with the US in exchange for significant concessions while the PRC has several times used the 'stick' to force its erstwhile client state back into line such as the oil/fuel cutoff in 2006 and the UN resolution against the nculear test as well as the recent surfacing of a paper reflecting the views of the influential PLA in promoting a "peacekeeping"/subjugation solution to a "breakdown" in NK.

Hardly a "lips and teeth" relationship in the age of realpolitik.

 

[Firehorse]

Well, if the US is sweating about Pakistani nukes (most proliferation already happened from there), then China may also take decisive measures regarding NK nukes!

 

[Gripenator]

Well, if the US is sweating about Pakistani nukes (most proliferation already happened from there), then China may also take decisive measures regarding NK nukes!

Again you are severely "misinformed".

PRC concerns are not so much the proliferation of atomic arms (although it may want to portray itself as concerned for its shaky global image) but rather as I am explaining in the most simplistic terms, the 'sustainability' of the Kim dynasty/NK regime for the nightmare scenario for the Politburo would be millions fleeing across the border after an NK collapse and overloading the NE of the PRC.

Get that: the PRC wants to sustain Kim's regime for as long as possible (while hoping unlikely Chinese style economic reforms will occur) to avoid regime collapse.

 

[gf0012-aust]

My apologies all. I have been requested to withdraw the previous OSINT information for the next 24hrs.

I will repost it if and when I get approval and authorisation to do so from the source.

 

[Chino]

Hardly a "lips and teeth" relationship in the age of realpolitik.

Whatever happens politically (or realpolitikally), the 2 countries share an unchangeable geographical proximity. "Lips and teeth" does hold some truth.

The first part of your post is totally irrelevant and stupid.

Is it necessary to be so offensive in making your point?