North Korea "Conducts Nuke Test!"

[RubiconNZ]

Shots fired on the DMZ

Fox News
On the frontier between North and South Korea, South Korean soldiers fired warning shots after five North Korean soldiers crossed a boundary in the Demilitarized Zone separating the countries' forces, South Korean military officials said...They advanced about 30 yards past the Military Demarcation Line separating the two armies before retreating after South Korean forces fired about 40 warning shots, the official said.


40 shots, quite the warning
Just to add to the pre-test buzz, sure incidents like this happen often but...
things are bit more tense at this time.

 

[Waylander]

Many warning shots.
I wonder at what time they would have begun to fire directly on them.

 

[RubiconNZ]

Many warning shots.
I wonder at what time they would have begun to fire directly on them.

Yeah or what the response would be if they did...

 

[Ozzy Blizzard]

This probably happens a fair bit. especially in panmunjon. Patrolls bumping into each other.

 

[contedicavour]

I wonder how reliable North Korean troops are for the regime in place there. There must surely be elite divisions (probably those patrolling around the nuclear facilities) but what about the underfed conscript divisions ?
Would they perform any better than the Iraqi divisions in '91 ?

cheers

 

[Ozzy Blizzard]

I think their on a pretty long rotation though. 11 years i heard somewhare. So they'ed have to be decent soldiers after that,

 

[dioditto]

Fox News
On the frontier between North and South Korea, South Korean soldiers fired warning shots after five North Korean soldiers crossed a boundary in the Demilitarized Zone separating the countries' forces, South Korean military officials said...They advanced about 30 yards past the Military Demarcation Line separating the two armies before retreating after South Korean forces fired about 40 warning shots, the official said.


40 shots, quite the warning
Just to add to the pre-test buzz, sure incidents like this happen often but...
things are bit more tense at this time.

Why 40 shots? is that from a platoon or a single soldier? cos, in my book, 1 shot is already a very deadly warning. To ignore 39 shots before retreating seems more than deliberate.

 

[dioditto]

I wonder how reliable North Korean troops are for the regime in place there. There must surely be elite divisions (probably those patrolling around the nuclear facilities) but what about the underfed conscript divisions ?
Would they perform any better than the Iraqi divisions in '91 ?

cheers

I have read an article about the journey of an north korean defecting to the south. It was reported that he was one of the bodyguard of the Kim and thus one of the elite unit, and as reported, he has demonstrated "spectacular" abilities in close quarter combat, marksmenship and various abilities, and is serving the south korean in advising on combat training.

Now, the rest of the army, I think the morale and training are probably not very good, due the deplorable living condition inside North Korea. There are waves of north korean "refugees" flowing through the border into China everyday. And ofcourse, even the bodyguard of Kim is defecting should tell you how bad it has become in the north.

Just found the article again :
http://www.time.com/time/asia/news/magazine/0,9754,201976,00.html

"Marksmanship was an important part of the training, especially the ability to shoot would-be assassins. Lee learned to hit a moving target at 250 m after sprinting in a chemical weapons suit and gas mask."

 

[icelord]

i found the shots odd, could these guys have been defecting?
Hell, they had to jump a fence to get close to SK guards.
“The North Korean soldiers crossed the military demarcation line and came some 30 metres south. They retreated after our troops fired warning shots,” an official at the Joint Chiefs of Staff said.

“We fired some 60 warning shots, including live ammunition, with intervals,” he said. The North Koreans, one of who was armed with a rifle, returned to their side about an hour late
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,20544553-401,00.html

 

[swerve]

I think their on a pretty long rotation though. 11 years i heard somewhare. So they'ed have to be decent soldiers after that,

11 years doing what? Standing watch on the DMZ? Ideological indoctrination? Planting cabbages so the unit has kimchi to eat? Not 11 years practicing with live ammo, or driving a tank - not enough ammo or fuel.

And 11 years can't be the average, or N. Korea would have a lot more (at least twice as many) in its armed forces than everyone reckons. IISS says 5-12 years army service, 5-10 years navy, 3-4 years air force, followed by compulsory reserve callups until 40, then they join the militia ("Workers Red Guard"). The longer periods are probably for NCOs & perhaps junior officers, & the lack of long conscript periods in the air force probably because pilots etc aren't conscripts.

 

[alexsa]

Fox News
On the frontier between North and South Korea, South Korean soldiers fired warning shots after five North Korean soldiers crossed a boundary in the Demilitarized Zone separating the countries' forces, South Korean military officials said...They advanced about 30 yards past the Military Demarcation Line separating the two armies before retreating after South Korean forces fired about 40 warning shots, the official said.


40 shots, quite the warning
Just to add to the pre-test buzz, sure incidents like this happen often but...
things are bit more tense at this time.

Actually compared to some of the incidents in the DMZ this is quite tame. Those inclined to a bit of reaearch would note in 1976 two American officers were beaten to death in the DMZ with axe handles while trying to trim a poplar tree that was obsuring the view of their observation post.

This came very close to an all out war but eventulaly the US and SK settled with deplying massive air, sea and ground forces and removing the entire tree. NK considered it prudent not to intervene in this case.

You can add to the list of incidents minisubs operations and the gun fight between SK and NK patrol boats in fishing grounds. In the most recent case one NK patrol craft was sunk.

the nub of the isuse is NK are willing to push the envelope and SK are willing to respond, killing one of the oppositon would be considered a warning I suspect.

Anybody looking for a good refernece on the history and politice of the situation I can recommend "the Two Koreas" by Don Oberdorter.

 

[dioditto]

i found the shots odd, could these guys have been defecting?
Hell, they had to jump a fence to get close to SK guards.
“The North Korean soldiers crossed the military demarcation line and came some 30 metres south. They retreated after our troops fired warning shots,” an official at the Joint Chiefs of Staff said.

“We fired some 60 warning shots, including live ammunition, with intervals,” he said. The North Koreans, one of who was armed with a rifle, returned to their side about an hour late
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,20544553-401,00.html

MY THOUGHTS EXACTLY!!!

I was wondering the same too.. they could be defecting...

 

[alexsa]

If the news is anything to go by it looks like NK have carried out their test.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200610/s1758836.htm

The North Korean news agency KCNA says its country has successfully conducted an underground nuclear test.

"Our science research section has safely and successfully conducted an underground nuclear test on October, 9," it said. It added that there was no leak or danger from the test. There are no more details at this stage.

The South Korean News Agency Yonhap is also carrying reports that Pyongyang may have carried out the test. Neither US intelligence sources nor South Korean defence officials can confirm at this stage that a test has taken place.

South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun is reported to have called an emergency meeting to discuss the North Korean nuclear issue.
"The meeting comes as there has been a grave change in the situation involving the North's nuclear activity," the agency quoted foreign ministry spokesman Choo Kyu-Ho as saying. He refused to go into further detail.
But another ranking foreign ministry official quoted by Yonhap confirmed that the government received intelligence that North Korea appeared to have already carried out a nuclear test.

"The government is trying to check the intelligence," the official said, asking not to be named. "We are not in a position to confirm such a report,' a South Korean defence ministry spokesman told AFP.

Hopefully the UN and the 5 members (other than NK) of the six way talks will act resolutely and apply hard sanctions. If China, SK and Japan shut the door on NK thye will be in very dire straits.

Lets hope there is no preemptive action on the part of tose seeking to bring NK to heel. Suggesting a preemtive nuclear strike as appear to have is just insane and SK would not stand for it in anycase as one of the most basic desires of many Koreans is the reunification of their country...... Intact preferably. any such action would harm NK civilians mainly. Sanctions will also cause harm but the regime have a way out and if they choose to stick it out they become the cause of the harm.

If NK are stupid enought to use a nuclear weapon that is a different issue. But given they have just used about 10% of their usable weapons grade material and would not necessairy have the other bombs built I think this is not a significant threat at t this time. It would appear they are trying to coerce the US back to the table on thier terms but if the UN hold firm this action will back fire on them. I guess trying such a trick proves just how out of touch with reality this regime is.

The intersting part of the whole situation will be how NK react to sanctions. Now that will be something to watch.

 

[StephenBierce]

Cease-Fire Breach?

Anybody know if the detonation can be construed legally as a breach of the 1953 Cease-Fire? The DPRK has already said publically that they intend to use their nukes pre-emptively. Has the Korean War resumed?

 

[dioditto]

Hold your horses... I don't think we have come to the conclusion to fight a nuclear war just yet. If we fear they would pre-emptively strike at us or our allies and thus we pre-emptively strike at them, it's all over. This issue is not so simple as well, if allied nations tries to attack NK, NK isn't exactly isolated, China would definitely back them, and then Russia would too and it's really going to be a nuclear holocaust, the reason being, Chinese does not want a wave of refugees flood into its own country, and secondly, if strikes are launched against the nuclear silos, there is high probability the radioactive contaminants will drift into neighbouring regions, and thus, China/Russia would not like that. Thirdly, China, NK, are still communist countries. They are allies. Russia, *may* also still have strong ties with NK, even though Russia is no longer (officially) a communist country, but I think Putin have a communist "bent" in his political belief thus it is possible he will get Russia involved if US tries to push this issue.

 

[JasonSkald]

Hopefully the UN and the 5 members (other than NK) of the six way talks will act resolutely and apply hard sanctions. If China, SK and Japan shut the door on NK thye will be in very dire straits.

The intersting part of the whole situation will be how NK react to sanctions. Now that will be something to watch.

What is the outside world possibly going to sanction? AFAIK North Korea is already under heavy sanctions of just about everything except food aid.

 

[johngage]

Personally, I think this is a situation without any good solutions and just a series of bad and even worse options. In my opinion a military solution would be extremely risky. The main problem being Seoul's proximity to the DMZ. The distance is around 30 miles. To my mind the main problem is not necessarily nuclear weapons (although if the North perfects its delivery system this might change). The main danger is the risk of artillery or surface-to-surface missiles against Seoul. There is also the possibility that the North may use chemical weapons. Essentially, they can hold a city of 9.5 million hostage.

 

[Izzy1]

I honestly think that North Korea may have gone a step too far this time, especially in regards its relations with Beijing. Viewing China's initial reaction to the test, their rhetoric holds 'no punches' and is quite interesting.

I will not be surprised if regime change is not being seriously considered this morning by the PRC in regards to Pyongyang.

 

[JasonSkald]

If North Korea goes ahead with the nuclear test, the results for them could be devastating. Any support they could hope for from China or Russia would be gone. (South Korea which currently is led by the Uri party which has somewhat of a reconciliation policy would lose any chance of winning in the 2008 elections (They are already not expected to win) unless they took a new hard line stance.) It would not be out of the question if the Chinese did something to initiate regime change.

Any mass attacks on SK civilian populace would be met with overwhelming force - surely even the NK leadership (IE Kim Jong-Il) must realize this.

The US did it once with B-29s, they can surely do it now.

General Curtis LeMay: "we eventually burned down every town in North Korea... and some in South Korea too. We even burned down [the South Korean city of] Pusan -- an accident, but we burned it down anyway."

 

[Izzy1]

Sorry, but I don't think rational thought or history plays much part in the DPRK leadership's thought process!

They're desperate, the only thing they have left now is to either trade their nukes for better terms - or use them...