North Korea "Conducts Nuke Test!"

[Waylander]

For sure smaller countries like Australia, Sweden, etc. would need more time.
They might not have the industrial base like Japan or Germany but they are still way ahead of most other countrys in the world.

In the end we run off-topic.

Is anybody disagreeing that Japan is able to build advanced nuclear weapons and delivery systems within a short time if necessary?
ABM and maybe an improvement of their ground attack and standoff capabilities is the way to go.

 

[dioditto]

Is anybody disagreeing that Japan is able to build advanced nuclear weapons and delivery systems within a short time if necessary?
ABM and maybe an improvement of their ground attack and standoff capabilities is the way to go.

I don't think anyone will be disagreeing and how do you define "short amount of time" ? 1 month? 1week? 1 day? 1 hour?

There is also the question of nuclear strategy as discussed by many in this thread. Japan, unlike Germany or North Korea, is an island nation that is elogated in shape, thin and spread out. In the case of an all out nuclear war, (assuming it's 20-40 years into the future) the survivability for Japan is a lot smaller compare to NK. Japan, as an island nation it is harder to defend - it's like lying down sideway (and stretch out) and exposing your belly to the dog. If Japan (the islands) are oriented the other way..(turn 90 degree) it will have much better chance of defending itself, but that's not the case.

This brings to the most likely scenerio. The best and most efficient method to defend Japan, is to build ABM ON THE DOOR STEP of NK, basically, putting ABM systems in Seoul (and the rest of South Korea), and have naval ABM system depolyed on the East Sea (Sea of Japan). That would really required the consensus of South Korea.

 

[icelord]

O phillius, I disagree!

 

[Waylander]

As I posted before. Within 3 month I see Japan having nuclear weapons and maybe longer for them trying to convert their sattelite transports.
Remember that we are talking of wartime conditions where every inch of industrial power and know-how is used for it.
In peacetime conditions it is very possible that a nuclear weapons program suffers much more from lack of funds, political changes, etc. like every other complicated and big program.

 

[Waylander]

Ok, Icelord.
How long do you think they would need to do it?

 

[RubiconNZ]

I heard this rumor a while ago (i'm sure all ausies have) that as a condition of the UK using australian test ranges for Nuke tests, was that we got the blueprints for a fission weapon. After lucas heights was operational for long enough, and enough enriched uranium 235/plutonium was harvested, they built it, and took it apart and its in storage. That's how the rumor goes anyway. It would make sence, with the F111 purchase happening at about the same time.

Also even after the pig's retired, if we get TLAM for the collins or the AWD's, that would be an exellent delivery system for a tactical nuke, although the level of minituisation needed for the warhead would be dificult without testing.

Did any of you see that ABC documentary a few years back FORTRESS AUSTRALIA, I mean the foundations of the planned Breeder reactor are still about today the Jervais Bay reactor I believe, Australia was all systems go for nuclear weapons the plan was for a 30 weapons a year production capability until I believe a change in government and anti nuclear trend,

Here its easier for you jsut to read this
http://www.abc.net.au/tv/documentaries/stories/s650355.htm
http://www.filmaust.com.au/showcase/8473/default.asp

30-45 days would a short period of times in terms of weapons development IMO

 

[icelord]

Well, i see for japan the upcoming release of the PS3 as a high priority project for their economy, so following that, 6months, but thats after say 6-12 mths of Diet fighting over the proposal, then a referendum perhaps?
And the obvious public reaction, even if Korea bombed Japan, they would'nt go nuclear

 

[Waylander]

Ah ok.
I posted something about wartime and peacetime conditions here.

I agree that now I also don't believe that Japan would even try to go nuclear. This could really fast end up in new elections because of the public opinion.
They learned it the bad way and I really like the Japanese opinion regarding nuclear weapons.

 

[icelord]

Even with Wartime conditions, i seriously doubt seeing it get off the ground, to many scientists would oppose it, and they would'nt have any training in use, at all. As in deployment, tactics, safety, it would be complicated to go pacifist to nuke state in a matter of months.

 

[Waylander]

As said before.
My timeframe is the optimal one.
It is not supposed to include the political and public opinion.
It is just about industrial base, know-how, available scientists and engineersm etc.

 

[dioditto]

Well, i see for japan the upcoming release of the PS3 as a high priority project for their economy, so following that, 6months, but thats after say 6-12 mths of Diet fighting over the proposal, then a referendum perhaps?
And the obvious public reaction, even if Korea bombed Japan, they would'nt go nuclear

erm, PS3 ??!!? LOL..
Are we talking about Japanese Government (who may or may not have control of Sony) putting priority on PS3 OVER their own defense?

 

[icelord]

Well when you put it that way, yes!
Its a tool used by god to find the ultimate general, the PSP was established to find commanders, does'nt anyone watch south park?

 

[dioditto]

As said before.
My timeframe is the optimal one.
It is not supposed to include the political and public opinion.
It is just about industrial base, know-how, available scientists and engineersm etc.

I am just curious, is letting Japanese getting the nuclear weapon capability also interest the German? Would the German follow suite (like they did with issue of UNSC permanent membership) and also acquire nuclear weapons once the Japanese acquire them?

 

[icelord]

As said before.
My timeframe is the optimal one.
It is not supposed to include the political and public opinion.
It is just about industrial base, know-how, available scientists and engineersm etc.

without politics, it would take 3-6mths to get to a testing phase i rekon. The world reaction would be amusing, would the US help in any way? or would they do the oppoisite and try to stall or sabotage the plan(not as in SEAL team sabotage, but by other means)

 

[Ozzy Blizzard]

Boys why would there be any public reaction??? Why wouldnt all this be done in secret? I know a nuclear programe is a massive undertaking but nuclear physics isn't exactly in its infancy. If Iran can launch a weapons program with plausible deniability (we all know its true) why couldn't Japan, with a well established nuclear industry and scientific know how. So once the decision was made it wouldn't have to be public.

 

[Waylander]

I don't think we would try to go nuclear.
We are in a phase of shutting down most of our nuclear power plants (So my timeframe is for now and not for the future) and nuclear technology is also looked at very sceptical here.
And we are still a NATO member. So we are under the nuclear umbrella of the US, France and the UK. If anybody would drop some WMDs on us he would have to face the retaliation of the whole NATO. There are also US bombs here in germany stored for use by our army in case of a full scale attack.

What I think would be a good step is that we could invite Japan (And Australia/NZ) into NATO.
This would give them the ability to say, "If you nuke us you are dead meat by all means.", without the need to have own nuclear weapons. It would be a win-win situation.

I really doubt that such a hugea nd controverse program could be proceeded in secret in a society like Japan.

 

[Ozzy Blizzard]

I really doubt that such a hugea nd controverse program could be proceeded in secret in a society like Japan.

Why?

 

[Waylander]

Because of the free press.
Even the rumours of such a program could lead to really big demonstrations and could easily conclude in new elections. Just remember the demonstrations about the US CVN and this was just because of a nuclear powered US carrier.
And such a program has to be approved by some commitees and I really doubt that every politician in them would be quiet and says yes and amen.

 

[icelord]

Germany being led by the greens would'nt help any ideas of nuclear weapons.
Japan would never be able to get away with a nuclear weapon without someone slipping up, their politicians are just as bad as any other, the only one to hide it for so long was Israel, and that was due to their being(and still is) a 24/7 threat from all around them, the unknown was perhaps their greatest advantage to actually having a nuke, as their enemies could never be sure if they attacked.

 

[Waylander]

The greens are no longer in charge here.
But even with a coalation of right leaning and liberal parties we would not try to get nuclear weapons. It is just a no go here.