New Zealand invasion

[Bozoo]

Hey guys,

Frankly I find it hard to think that any invasion (well military invasion) would be possible of little old NZ. But to be fair in the event of say such a massive denigration of the global security situation would it not be a bad strategy to try to isolate the little and vulnerable trading countries like ours prompting the need of US or Australian forces, which would dilute the forces available to another theatre? I am not sure how this would work. Just throwing it out there.
But say I am a middle eastern/ south-east asian country, or anyone that joins an alliance with the collective might to even comtemplate challenging Western forces supremacy. Why might we do this - resource scramble, sick of the terms of western financial institutions, Disagreements over the finalist of Americas Idol...whos to say. We have in our inventory and the inventory or other nations a couple of or couple of hundred conventional subs with the range to patrol largely unassisted (surface resupply would be possible - again with well disguised merchant ships with a convincing registry history - genuine or concocted. But again I think massively risky). We decide that US carrier avaiation is a threat that is substantial and strategic in deciding the outcomeof any confrontation or conflict. Not silly. Cos it has been before. Maybe we experiment to direct that said carrier avaiation or elements of it away from the main theatres of war by sending a sub or two to pillage or sink commercial shipping in far away waters. Or too place them in predictable routes to a major theatre which may give an advantage to another staged force in ambush in close waters where force concentration and proximity favours the hostile powers sub forces. Even the carrier (which I wouldn't think is the primary ASW tool) might not be utilised for the sub hunt but the escorts are, that would strip away the escort numbers perhaps exposing the CSG to possibility of a meaningful strike by other forces.
NZ waters or more likely our sea lines of communication are targeted amongst others and we don't have an invasion but near enough as it might come to because our economy would be strained by such a degree that can not function as a viable nation for the timebeing. Sudden change brings sudden trauma perhaps.
While this does not justify a strike jet wing nor a likely threat it I think poses a plausible threat with some seriousness to it. But I think the above is the most likely we'll have to seriously consider.
While a container ship of mercs or commando types is a pretty major undertaking with perhaps little in the way of real operational longevity (cos they would be pounded in time, the americans are really good at it) but it is a way to knock out a ally of the western powers in a way that might leverage maybe their greatest advantage - surprise (Maybe). And
think Bozoo its good to comtemplate about it but not too worry about it. Foreign corporations have been invading NZ for decades and to my knowledge no military response was needed (that might change once I'm dictator...joking)
I think whether we talking invasion or being cut off from our mates I think we need alot stronger maritime patrol and anti submarine capability. Because we can train infantry men in six months (well partially - I used to be one of sorts and I would never describe myself as competent in that time...or anytime really ). But decent long range patrol aircraft with a combat capability to deal with surface raiders and subs wouldn't be de decided on in sixty months with our political and social systems let alone operational and well excercised.

By the way I am not an expert and this is just my thoughts which are free and open to being pulled apart by I wont argue about them cos alot of you know alot more than me.

Anyway Bozoo I thank you for your concern about NZ's security situation (as non threatened as it is) because too few people do (except here of course)

Cheers
Shane

I think every democracy needs to be aware of the challenges that will come, even though we may not divine their exact nature in the present day. When politicians finally accept an iminent threat, it is generally to late to make preparations that are not allready in place.

Man's history is full of war and strife. The end of history is still not in sight.

 

[Mr Ignorant]

Yes, NZ was invaded, give or take 150 years ago. Invasion was brief, and the Natives signed a Peace Treaty at Waitangi. The natives understood their puny navy and army were well below par compared to the ships of the line and cannon of the invaders. Any trial by fire would result in the large casualties, for the unusually backward NZ native at the time, and they were thus perfectly aware of any consequences. In return, the invaders brought their culture, religion, language and customs in addition to familiar plantlife they found back home, the natives in turn, organised exotic welcoming dances for visiting dignitaries, and actively accepted the superior culture and technology of the Invader.

There is 2nd type of invasion ongoing in NZ now. It is the fifth column invader, south east asian and china based students enrolled in NZ Universities, absorbing as much about the history and culture of the country, before returning home to report on anything useful for future invasion plans. These students, some are genuine, but most are spies from a foreign culture. Soon, "economic advisers" from these countries will deploy to NZ and work in "research" institutes there, conducting field studies of NZ's lethal combination of Sheep shearers and All Black front row.

So you see Bozoo, NZ can be invaded by a Superior Force. The IJN brought with them that threat to Australia in World War 2, so who is to say, what the future may bring?? You better start looking at those foreign students again, especially any science based engineering students.

 

[swerve]

Yes, NZ was invaded, give or take 150 years ago. Invasion was brief, and the Natives signed a Peace Treaty at Waitangi. The natives understood their puny navy and army were well below par compared to the ships of the line and cannon of the invaders. Any trial by fire would result in the large casualties, for the unusually backward NZ native at the time, and they were thus perfectly aware of any consequences.

Actually, they fought a few wars in the 30 years after the Treaty of Waitangi, in which they did rather well, adapting their traditional techniques of warfare to incorporate guns, & defence against cavalry & cannon. The Maoris employed cannon in some of the fighting in the 1860s.

The colonial government refrained from attempting to conquer the last major Maori enclave, the King Country, due to the cost & casualties of the 1860s battles. The Maoris eventually accepted peaceful integration of the region into New Zealand in the 1880s, after negotiating some concessions to Maori law & custom.

 

[smellyjocks]

Maybe i'm holding the intelligence community in too high a regard here, but if any nation had plans on launching an invasion of any sort against NZ i'm sure there would be adequate time for Australias Navy to block any path of passage, while thats happening i think the US would move some of their military might in this general direction as a warning.

Another factor is Australias Naval vessels in particular the Collins are always collecting Intel from our region, all major defence forces do,it's become the norm since WWII, so i believe that any planned assault would be well and truly blown out of the water before it grew legs to stand on.

Any invasion would need to be via sea in which case i think you would find with our Subs which have been proven to be deceptive potentially lurking anywhere in the region it'd be a touch ask.

 

[exported_kiwi]

Who has the logistic, seapower and air support to project themselves all the way down to good ole Aotearoa? Only the US, or maybe the Uk and France and they're not gonna go at us so the whole point is moot really don't y'all think?
In saying this, it'd be nice for NZ to "beef up" on some things!

 

[exported_kiwi]

There IS no Burma, it's called Myanmar!

 

[Sea Toby]

Who has the logistic, seapower and air support to project themselves all the way down to good ole Aotearoa? Only the US, or maybe the Uk and France and they're not gonna go at us so the whole point is moot really don't y'all think?
In saying this, it'd be nice for NZ to "beef up" on some things!

I couldn't agree more. New Zealand still requires a defence force, more to take part with allied nations for operations abroad. Other nations will want New Zealand to play its part dong the dirty work of policing other regions of this world.

 

[exported_kiwi]

Thanks. Don't you think that NZ already deploys personnel in support of allied ops far more than its force levels would imply it could? All this costs and I'd think, cuts into an already overburdened budget which then hinders recruitment, retention and procurement. Catch 22 folks!

 

[OPSSG]

Exactly how can I engage in such a TEWT exercise? I'd be very interested. As an avidly interested armchair general for the Midtguardian defence forces, I need all the input I can get.

@Bozoo, for an idea of TEWT exercises, have a look at the 'Flames of War' website on table top miniatures for details. Please read this set of rules for anti-tank gun deployment, as a sample.

Enjoy your Midtguardian defence forces.

 

[StingrayOZ]

The Maoris eventually accepted peaceful integration of the region into New Zealand in the 1880s, after negotiating some concessions to Maori law & custom.

The Maoris are one of the very few native peoples that put up a extremely strong fight. The way the Maori wars escalated is unbelievable. The Maori being islanders with a long tradition of war and fight were extremely capable warriors. As soon as they could they got the modern hardware and went to town with it. Early explorers were very hesitant with NZ (cook for example) because they were still very effective warriors with just spears. Cook should have been more careful in Hawaii..

The whole experience is totally different to Australia's.

 

[Sea Toby]

Thanks. Don't you think that NZ already deploys personnel in support of allied ops far more than its force levels would imply it could? All this costs and I'd think, cuts into an already overburdened budget which then hinders recruitment, retention and procurement. Catch 22 folks!

Who ever said defence was easy? One has to suck in their tummy and get the job done. Or do you favor not getting the job done? Why not raise the white flag now before an invasion?

 

[willur]

but but but

Who ever said defence was easy? One has to suck in their tummy and get the job done. Or do you favor not getting the job done? Why not raise the white flag now before an invasion?

I thought New Zealand was already fully underway with their own invasion plans.....invading Australia

 

[USNlover]

Well the Australian Navy is probably more than a match for any invasion fleet, And if the Russians try the American 7TH fleet will find out and escort them away/blow them away :nutkick We've got you covered

 

[Ananda]

I thought New Zealand was already fully underway with their own invasion plans.....invading Australia

I've been watching this thread for some time, and refrain on comment since' invading NZ' ??..Really..

But put scenario's on this..
Since Gandalf and the Elves already leaving the shore of middle earth (aka New Zealand)...The people of middle earth will only content with the remmants of Sauron's minnions (the Orcs, Trolls, etc) which Minas Tirith (aka Wellington) found without Sauron, his minnions actually can be harness for new army of middle earth..

Felling lonely with the departures of Gandalf and the Elves..the authority in Minas Tirith (* a queen as succesor to King Aragon) begin sending the hobbits scouting the land beyond the shores and look on whereabout new settlements of Elves and found that in the nearest huge land across the shore of Middle Earth..theres also new settlement of Elves and with that also Orcs and Trolls (Catlle and Sheeps)...

Feeling threatend with the large presences of Orcs and Trolls that the Elves actually masses in the huge land across the shores...the Queen saw the possibility the Elves will ruin the Middle Earth market for Orcs and Trolls..The middle Earth then decide to flooded this Huge Land across the shores with the masses of Middle Earth Trolls and Orcs in view of domminations of The markets...
Sorry...can not help my self

 

[cavalrytrooper]

Hey New Zealand I can't see anyone attacking your country unless you have lots of oil or precious metals. If someone did attack you it would probably be by water. I can't see the United States coming to the rescue, they have enough problems of their own. Australia might help but I wouldn't swear to it. You may be on your own. Texas

 

[mattyem]

Hey New Zealand I can't see anyone attacking your country unless you have lots of oil or precious metals. If someone did attack you it would probably be by water. I can't see the United States coming to the rescue, they have enough problems of their own. Australia might help but I wouldn't swear to it. You may be on your own. Texas

by the 'off chance' that new zealand did get invaded. Im sure we wouldn't be alone in this, I would also bet money on our ANZAC brothers in arms coming to our aide.
With a high chance that the invasion would be be water
im sure it would be detected with enough time in advance to rectify the situation through whatever means are best suited.

 

[exported_kiwi]

Never said it was easy

Who ever said defence was easy? One has to suck in their tummy and get the job done. Or do you favor not getting the job done? Why not raise the white flag now before an invasion?

I do favour getting the job done and there's no way I advocate surrender in the first place. My guess is that we'd give them a run for their money, whoever it is.

 

[Ozzy Blizzard]

Hey New Zealand I can't see anyone attacking your country unless you have lots of oil or precious metals. If someone did attack you it would probably be by water. I can't see the United States coming to the rescue, they have enough problems of their own. Australia might help but I wouldn't swear to it. You may be on your own. Texas

Emotions aside neither the US or Australia could stand by and watch a peaceful, democratic, western nation in the pacific be invaded by a major power. That would be a massive destabilization of the current security order and absolutely contrary to both Australia's and the US's national interest. In any case Australia is the dominant (non US) power in the western south pacific, and any armed attack on NZ would be a massive challenge to that. Then if you add the emotional element, economic interdependence the shared culture and history (Aus & NZ are really a de-facto single nation) there is no way Australia would not intervene, and this has an effect ton the US to a lessor extent the US and NZ were allies for a long time, (NZ deployed troops to Vietnam), so there would be an incentive to intervene.

Perhaps more fundamentally any nation capable of projecting power into the Tasman and attack NZ is more than a threat to Aus, and it is stated ADF doctrine to engage a threat as far from the Australian land mass as possible. It is likely that any invasion force would be interdicted by the RAN & RAAF well before it reached NZ territorial waters. That means they would be playing within JORN dominated battlespace = a bad day for your big bad invader. Collins' reputation precedes it and currently the RAAF operates over 100 Harpoon capable platforms i.e. pretty formidable maritime strike capability. So realistically i don't see this happening.

 

[Aussie Digger]

Hey New Zealand I can't see anyone attacking your country unless you have lots of oil or precious metals. If someone did attack you it would probably be by water. I can't see the United States coming to the rescue, they have enough problems of their own. Australia might help but I wouldn't swear to it. You may be on your own. Texas

As others have suggested, I can't see any threat to NZ not being a threat to Australia and with Australia's Air Force operating more than 100 maritime strike platforms alone, I'd suggest an invasion force of NZ, would have to be a rather substantial force, which would of course, attract more interest and so on...

 

[Hoffy]

An Australian perspective...

I'm new here so please be gentle.

As an Aussie(and having watched this thread for some weeks now) I felt it worthwhile to offer some observations.

I think we all know that an invasion of NZ in the near future is very unlikely. The thing this discussion has highlighted to me is the apparent lack of concern for any investment in defence in NZ - not so much by the posters , but by the politicians in general in NZ.
Our defence white paper made a specific mention of developing Australian & NZ interoperability and the potential to develop an ANZAC type deployment force. Seems like a sensible idea.
What really annoys me is the assumption that Australia+USA will look after any threat therefore the Kiwis don't really need to worry about anything.
Whilst I understand that NZ is not as wealthy as Australia there is no excuse for allowing the NZ Defence Forces to get into such a messy and rundown state.
I recall hearing with absolute amazement that the NZ Air Force was about to lose it's jet fighters some years ago. This sent a signal to the Australian public that the Kiwis were happy to "bludge" on the defence spending of the Australian taxpayer. We all must play our part , so let's at least get an ANZAC strike force organised...
BTW - let there be no doubt that we would consider any threat to NZ as a direct threat to us. This scenario would provoke a significant military reaction from us.
Apologies if I offended anyone with my remarks.