Moderated taiwan invasion war game

[Musashi_kenshin]

If Russia plays the role of the Great Neutral, they have nothing to loose and everything to gain... or so it might apear to a creature like Putin.

They have everything to lose because the regional economy could tank and would certainly be hit!

How so? Is there no chance of any arms dealer making shadey deals with China, transfering technology under the table to make themsevles and their country rich? Ever heard of France or Russia?

Russia is not part of Europe and France has a new President, if you hadn't noticed. Besides, what's going happen when the Americans find out or even suspected what the French were doing? What sort of sanctions would be slapped down on France?

Kin Il Jong is not the most sensible guy in the world.

He is, actually, very sensible. He might not be a nice guy, but he has played the brinkmanship card very well so far. His no. 1 priority is survival.

India... India conducting a successful military action agianst the PLA?

If China's busy it won't have the option of defending against an Indian attack for long.

therefore would find it much easier to to find and destroy a couple of big, clumsy bombs than anyone else.

That doesn't mean China would be able to.

If you control Hong Kong Politicaly and Militarily, then you have more influence on the corporate bosses there than anyone else.

The corporate bosses do not run the city by themselves, they merely have a disproportionate amount of control. In any case, in Taiwan the functional constituencies don't exist so China couldn't manipulate the political system in the same way.

 

[Manfred]

Russia is trying to be part of Europe, altho I will admit that it is not very succesful in that.

I appreciate the fact that France has a new President, and that is a huge relief. Dirty deals can still happen, but now they are a hell of a lot less likely.

North Korea has survived, but that is all it has done. If they have a chance to accomplish the goal that has driven them and their propaganda for generations, can you assure me they will not take it?

Okay... let me back up and admit that a North Korean bomb can be sent to China as easly as it can to Japan. However, Japan is the only nation that has ever been nuked, and they have a deep psycological aversion to getting hit agian. China, on the other hand, is on record as having refered to the Nuke as a paper Tiger.

China also has one great advantage- a large number of high-quality infantry. It would only take about a tenth of what they have to block the frontier with India for months. And an Indian attack would give China all the excuse they need to mount a counter-offensive at a later date... which might give the political leadership of India something to think about.
How solid is China's alliance with Pakistan these days?

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

However, Japan is the only nation that has ever been nuked, and they have a deep psycological aversion to getting hit agian. China, on the other hand, is on record as having refered to the Nuke as a paper Tiger.

That does not mean Japan would just stand by and let whatever happen because someone made a threat about using nukes. If they wanted to get involved, they wouldn't let anyone hold them to ransom with nuclear weapons - especially not at a time when they're asserting themselves more and more diplomatically and militarily.

I don't think you really understand the Japanese if you're going to make these rather daft assertions.

It would only take about a tenth of what they have to block the frontier with India for months. And an Indian attack would give China all the excuse they need to mount a counter-offensive at a later date... which might give the political leadership of India something to think about.

If China were fighting a war on two fronts, India might decide opening a third front would consign it to defeat and it would merely be a matter of time before they would win. Countries take risks, which is why they get involved in wars to begin with.

How solid is China's alliance with Pakistan these days?

Not good enough to get them to attack India.


Seriously, Manfred, you need to get your head out of the clouds and think realistically. Or are you deliberately trying to hijack this thread with your ramblings?

 

[Schumacher]

That does not mean Japan would just stand by and let whatever happen because someone made a threat about using nukes. If they wanted to get involved, they wouldn't let anyone hold them to ransom with nuclear weapons - especially not at a time when they're asserting themselves more and more diplomatically and militarily.

You're underestimating the psychological effects of being nuked twice on Japan. After all, it was the 'ransom' of being nuked further that made them surrender & be subject to occupation. Japan at that time was far more hardline than the current only starting to embark on a timid effort to assert themselves.

Not good enough to get them to attack India.

Again, you made such definite statement without demonstrating much knowledge on the issue. The Pakistan-India border war was started partly after seeing the outcome of the Sino-India war.
So I think you're only guessing or wishing Pakistan or other Indian neighbours like Bangladesh won't seek to take advantage of future Sino-India conflict, which btw I do think is remote even if China moved against Taiwan.

In any case, in Taiwan the functional constituencies don't exist so China couldn't manipulate the political system in the same way.

Judging from Chen's manipulation of the political system & getting away with it, I don't think it's nearly as impossible as you wish that China cannot gain significant political control sometime in the future thru elements supporting thme in Taiwan.

 

[gf0012-aust]

You're underestimating the psychological effects of being nuked twice on Japan. After all, it was the 'ransom' of being nuked further that made them surrender & be subject to occupation. Japan at that time was far more hardline than the current only starting to embark on a timid effort to assert themselves.

diff circumstances - the loyalty and acceptance of the word of the emporer was enough to keep the hawks at bay. the emporer now does not have the same authority as 60+ years ago - its a symbolic role.

certainly their are more japanese in the military who see that there is a greater loss of national face by just rolling with the punches that come out of the mainland.

china finally overstepped the mark when she failed to manage sponsored reaction against the japanese (and the soccer team was the last straw).

japan has been judiciously and quietly speaking to like minded partners since.

I agree with Musashi_kenshin - they'll change their attitude as soon as it becomes apparent that they're being politically played. The japanese navy certainly holds no fear over any PLAN capability.

 

[Schumacher]

diff circumstances - the loyalty and acceptance of the word of the emporer was enough to keep the hawks at bay. the emporer now does not have the same authority as 60+ years ago - its a symbolic role.

.................

Well, that's your view. No one has crystal balls. There're not too many instances of nuke 'ransom' in history to base one's judgement. I merely base mine on the WW2 instance & the nuke ransom then was definitely effective.

 

[Manfred]

Countries take risks, which is why they get involved in wars to begin with.

Which is the thrust of my whole argument, thanks for stating it so clearly.
...after all, this is how World Wars start, and have in the past, and the next one could be a Pacific, rather than a European event.

That does not mean Japan would just stand by and let whatever happen because someone made a threat about using nukes. If they wanted to get involved, they wouldn't let anyone hold them to ransom with nuclear weapons - especially not at a time when they're asserting themselves more and more diplomatically and militarily.

North Korean still has Japanese civilians in its custody, kiddnapped off beaches for whatever strange reasons, and Japan has not taken them back. While I welcome a stronger Japan, I have yet to see them actualy DO anything that involves serious risks, or even combat with anyone at all.

Furthermore, I do belive that China has enough troops for 2 relativley small wars and still have enough left to defend the highest mountains on earth.

are you deliberately trying to hijack this thread with your ramblings?

Ho hum...
I have acknowledged points that you made, and countered opinions with those of my own without questioning your mental state.

Why is this such an emotional subject?
Theoretical discusions are useful. For example; could the connection to Pakistan show how a war over Taiwan could lead to a general war in the Mid-East? I am not stating that it must... but could it?

 

[gf0012-aust]

Well, that's your view. No one has crystal balls. There're not too many instances of nuke 'ransom' in history to base one's judgement. I merely base mine on the WW2 instance & the nuke ransom then was definitely effective.

exactly - warfare is about risk management - and even the chinese can't help notice that the attitudinal, political and military climate in japan has changed - exactly as I said it would 12 months ago.

the right wing in japan is just as scary as the right wing in china

 

[gf0012-aust]

Why is this such an emotional subject?

maybe there are personal prisms to consider.

eg I had over a dozen relatives murdered by the Red Guards in the 60's just because they were academics and relatively wealthy.

I have relatives on the mainland who still fear what they can and cannot say in the open. They were harassed by Govt officials after a visit by me in 1985 and 1999. They still fear to speak honestly and openly

I headed a section of the Aust Govt Security Detail of what was euphemistically called the "China Task Force" during Tiananmen Sq - so I did get to see traffic outside of the "norm".

So, for me (as an example) I have some personal investment that absolutely colours my trust of any mainland chinese govt.

I therefore have to pause considerably before responding to these kinds of debates as I have a withering contempt for the mainland govt and how it still manages the populace (capitalism aside, its the same old song by the "same" person wearing a different suit cut from a different cloth)

Perhaps thats why some responses from others are fractious at times - maybe they have similar reservations or histories coloured by involvement.

 

[Manfred]

Ah... I was wondering why this was even hotter then the Mid-east with some folks.

The PLA is indeed governed by a brutal, dispicable crew. Rather then seem to enjoy the role of Devils advocate, I will back out now... for a while anyway. An ocean away, I dont have much of a feel for that whole region, in spite of the fact that I spent a year of my life there, back in the 80s.

Btw- what happened with the soccer team?

 

[gf0012-aust]

Ah... I was wondering why this was even hotter then the Mid-east with some folks.

Don't start on the ME - its guaranteed to deteriorate faster than any US-Chinese debates.

The PLA is indeed governed by a brutal, dispicable crew. Rather then seem to enjoy the role of Devils advocate, I will back out now... for a while anyway. An ocean away, I dont have much of a feel for that whole region, in spite of the fact that I spent a year of my life there, back in the 80s.

You don't need to back out - but perhaps be alert to some of the sensitivities that get triggered. Its also why I will not go into detail in some of these topics. 1) I can't. 2) I'll get angry pretty quickly 3) I don't expect others to accept or understand my personal issues re the subject.

btw, I currently have a chinese student who works for me, he gets incredibly nervous as soon as he's asked for opinions about current politics. He says that he is an only child, and thus he has his parents to consider and that I shouldn't ask him such things. Comments like that only serve to reinforce pre existing perceptions - whether thats fair or not is always a moot point.

Btw- what happened with the soccer team?

A staged demonstration got a little out of hand.

anyway, I'll go back to lurking and observing.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

North Korean still has Japanese civilians in its custody, kiddnapped off beaches for whatever strange reasons, and Japan has not taken them back.

What kind of nonsense is this? What is Japan supposed to do? Invade North Korea?

The simple fact is that if ANYONE were kidnapped from ANY country in the region and taken to NK, NO ONE would be able to do anything to take them back unless they started war, which no one would do over a few hostages. Not South Korea, Russia or China.

Why is this such an emotional subject?

Probably because you make it emotional by slagging off anyone who might stand up for Taiwan/against China as being weak-willed, incapable, dis-interested, etc while building China up to be some sort of super-god-like, invincible force that can take anyone it wants at any time. I'm sure you will dispute that, but every responce is like "oh, well China can deal with that no problem".

Admin: Text deleted. Comments like this aren't helpful either.

 

[eckherl]

maybe there are personal prisms to consider.

eg I had over a dozen relatives murdered by the Red Guards in the 60's just because they were academics and relatively wealthy.

I have relatives on the mainland who still fear what they can and cannot say in the open. They were harassed by Govt officials after a visit by me in 1985 and 1999. They still fear to speak honestly and openly

I headed a section of the Aust Govt Security Detail of what was euphemistically called the "China Task Force" during Tiananmen Sq - so I did get to see traffic outside of the "norm".

So, for me (as an example) I have some personal investment that absolutely colours my trust of any mainland chinese govt.

I therefore have to pause considerably before responding to these kinds of debates as I have a withering contempt for the mainland govt and how it still manages the populace (capitalism aside, its the same old song by the "same" person wearing a different suit cut from a different cloth)

Perhaps thats why some responses from others are fractious at times - maybe they have similar reservations or histories coloured by involvement.

My mother inlaw has family in North Korea that she will most likely never see and that is very hard for her and hard for me to listen to her when discussing this. I can deeply respect your post.

 

[Manfred]

Admin: Text deleted. Comments like this aren't helpful either.

THere is a limit to what China can do, obviously. However, with more than 3 dozen armies (more like Corps in my mind) less than half of those troops would be engaged in Taiwan and Korea. The rest could be employed elsewhere, even if most of the airpower and 100% of the navy is busy elsewhere.
That is why I think they could defend teh Himalayan mountians for a good long while. And, even if India can penetrate Tibet, how can they supply a large army, one that can go on and invade China proper or some vital place that might have a noticable effect on the PRC?
How long would it take?

Not supermen, but having over 100 divisions gives you tremendous flexibility, and a very dangerous amount of power.

 

[tphuang]

maybe there are personal prisms to consider.

eg I had over a dozen relatives murdered by the Red Guards in the 60's just because they were academics and relatively wealthy.

I have relatives on the mainland who still fear what they can and cannot say in the open. They were harassed by Govt officials after a visit by me in 1985 and 1999. They still fear to speak honestly and openly

I headed a section of the Aust Govt Security Detail of what was euphemistically called the "China Task Force" during Tiananmen Sq - so I did get to see traffic outside of the "norm".

So, for me (as an example) I have some personal investment that absolutely colours my trust of any mainland chinese govt.

I therefore have to pause considerably before responding to these kinds of debates as I have a withering contempt for the mainland govt and how it still manages the populace (capitalism aside, its the same old song by the "same" person wearing a different suit cut from a different cloth)

Perhaps thats why some responses from others are fractious at times - maybe they have similar reservations or histories coloured by involvement.

I hope I'm not being direspectful here, but I think that some of your experiences may be due to the fact that you work for Australian defense industry. Of all the people I know that visited their family in China, neither they nor their family have ever been harrassed. In fact, I have numerous friends there right now.

As for current politics, I had conversations with people in China about politics all the time. There was never any issue there.

I don't gain anything to say any of the good stuff I say about Chinese government. I think you will find that it's the Chinese population and ex-pats that spend the most time defending their own government, that should speak for volumes.

 

[eckherl]

Admin: Text deleted. Comments like this aren't helpful either.

THere is a limit to what China can do, obviously. However, with more than 3 dozen armies (more like Corps in my mind) less than half of those troops would be engaged in Taiwan and Korea. The rest could be employed elsewhere, even if most of the airpower and 100% of the navy is busy elsewhere.
That is why I think they could defend teh Himalayan mountians for a good long while. And, even if India can penetrate Tibet, how can they supply a large army, one that can go on and invade China proper or some vital place that might have a noticable effect on the PRC?
How long would it take?

Not supermen, but having over 100 divisions gives you tremendous flexibility, and a very dangerous amount of power.

With this type of scenario involving troops fom China invading South Korea you can pretty much call it a total loss for China, a big reason why would be the UN resolution inregards to the cease fire signed by South and North Korea meaning that alot of countries would be involved in getting China out of there. Even if China did not enter the war between the North and South Koreans they know that South Korea has the muscle and the backing to have a very strong possibility of winning the war, which would put a bigger threat along the Yalu river for China, a free democratic society which would be surely pissed at China for giving North korea the green light for a invasion.

 

[gf0012-aust]

I hope I'm not being direspectful here, but I think that some of your experiences may be due to the fact that you work for Australian defense industry. Of all the people I know that visited their family in China, neither they nor their family have ever been harrassed. In fact, I have numerous friends there right now.

As for current politics, I had conversations with people in China about politics all the time. There was never any issue there.

I don't gain anything to say any of the good stuff I say about Chinese government. I think you will find that it's the Chinese population and ex-pats that spend the most time defending their own government, that should speak for volumes.

Getting harassed because of where and what I work in is hardly something thats defensible.

and I, stand by my comments on the chinese student who works for me - he is quite clearly uncomfortable criticising the chinese govt when there are more than 2 people in the room.

there was an interesting programme re Tiananmen Sq on SBS recently where at least a 3rd of the audience were chinese students. All of them refused to comment about their views on the politics of the current govt - and all indicated when asked that they'd rather not. Fear was apparent in some.

still, this is off topic and I'm hijacking the thread. My reservations and disdain for the treatment (and murder) of my relatives doesn't allow me the personal generosity that you may have.

 

[Schumacher]

Getting harassed because of where and what I work in is hardly something thats defensible.
..............

Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if someone, or their close contacts, from China, Russia or NK etc working or worked in the fields that you have being 'harassed' or at least being monitored when he/she goes to US or Aust.
Nowadays, certain groups of certain nationalities or religion are routinely being monitored for perceived threats etc.

I know of a former co-worker in the US who is of Indian origin having to shave his beard because he said he has had too much 'trouble' with law enforcement officers in various places, especially airports.

 

[Rich]

maybe there are personal prisms to consider.

eg I had over a dozen relatives murdered by the Red Guards in the 60's just because they were academics and relatively wealthy.

I have relatives on the mainland who still fear what they can and cannot say in the open. They were harassed by Govt officials after a visit by me in 1985 and 1999. They still fear to speak honestly and openly

I headed a section of the Aust Govt Security Detail of what was euphemistically called the "China Task Force" during Tiananmen Sq - so I did get to see traffic outside of the "norm".

So, for me (as an example) I have some personal investment that absolutely colours my trust of any mainland chinese govt.

I therefore have to pause considerably before responding to these kinds of debates as I have a withering contempt for the mainland govt and how it still manages the populace (capitalism aside, its the same old song by the "same" person wearing a different suit cut from a different cloth)

Perhaps thats why some responses from others are fractious at times - maybe they have similar reservations or histories coloured by involvement.

The threat of the secret Police kicking down your door at 0300, and dragging you away to a dungeon, must have a moderating influence on what you say about your Govt.:

Most of us in the west cant understand it, having never lived it. Some of us have lived it, yet still cant convince others.

I once watched officers, of an army I wont name, beat one of their soldiers to death. We were guarding a bomb depot, of a location and weapons type I wont name. We were inside the fences, they were outside. Two of them got into a beef and started fist fighting. One of them grabbed his rifle, jacked a round, and was going to shoot the other. A bunch of other soldiers jumped on him and they waited for their superiors to show up.

First came the SGT, then a higher SGT, then the LT., then a Capt., then a Major, and each time a superior officer showed up they would cease beating this guy, salute, and then watch their superior officer start beating him. It was almost comical. Eventually they dragged him off, no doubt for a renewed beating elsewhere.

Later the guards told us he died from the beating he got. No doubt the word got around to the other guards they shouldn't be fighting near a bomb depot of that type.

When I came home and told people this story, and others like it, they looked at me like I was making it all up. Incidents like it just dont fit in their personal, comfortable reality ; Thus, It must not be real.

The brutality of the Chinese Govt., and its instruments of power, no doubt fit into the same category. People believe what they want to believe. Anyway, forgive me for hijacking the thread.

 

[tphuang]

The threat of the secret Police kicking down your door at 0300, and dragging you away to a dungeon, must have a moderating influence on what you say about your Govt.:

Most of us in the west cant understand it, having never lived it. Some of us have lived it, yet still cant convince others.

I once watched officers, of an army I wont name, beat one of their soldiers to death. We were guarding a bomb depot, of a location and weapons type I wont name. We were inside the fences, they were outside. Two of them got into a beef and started fist fighting. One of them grabbed his rifle, jacked a round, and was going to shoot the other. A bunch of other soldiers jumped on him and they waited for their superiors to show up.

First came the SGT, then a higher SGT, then the LT., then a Capt., then a Major, and each time a superior officer showed up they would cease beating this guy, salute, and then watch their superior officer start beating him. It was almost comical. Eventually they dragged him off, no doubt for a renewed beating elsewhere.

Later the guards told us he died from the beating he got. No doubt the word got around to the other guards they shouldn't be fighting near a bomb depot of that type.

When I came home and told people this story, and others like it, they looked at me like I was making it all up. Incidents like it just dont fit in their personal, comfortable reality ; Thus, It must not be real.

The brutality of the Chinese Govt., and its instruments of power, no doubt fit into the same category. People believe what they want to believe. Anyway, forgive me for hijacking the thread.

for someone who has never lived in the country, you sure have some serious views toward it.

This may be a shock to you, but a lot of people I know actually enjoy their lives in China far better than Western countries.