Moderated taiwan invasion war game

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Falstaff

New Member
Ballistic missiles have this gloomy reputation being the ultimate weapons,
Isn't that exactly what they're built and deployed for? I don't believe the Chinese military considers them to be "wunderwaffen", but as long as the Taiwanese people is afraid of them they are doing well, aren't they? Demoralising, that is. A militia or reserve soldier probably won't be thinking about accuracy or blast radius if he believes some 800 of them will come down on him any minute.

Reading all the (better) contributions to this thread I think the baseline is that an invasion of Taiwan is not possible and thus unlikely in the foreseeable future. Total devastation of Taiwan is not China's interest.

At the same time it's possible for China to put sustained pressure on Taiwan. Actually that's what they're doing all the time. A couple of Chinese friend tells me the Chinese people will never accept Taiwanese independence. At the same time China is not willing to risk it's economical groth.
So could an Taiwan war scenario possibly take place on another scale and another level? Would it be possible to take over Taiwan without a direct military confrontation?

Such a scenario would probably involve a range of tactics and methods not connected with conventional warfare. I'm thinking of e.g. IT-warfare, heavy electronic jamming, use of small special forces teams delievered by SSKs to infiltrate, heavy propaganda, the constant missile threat, sabotage, encouraging and support of local pro-China groups, show of force, and yes, an economical blockade. All together in a concentrated action that aims to create a coup d'etat and performed in a way that doesn't give enough reason for foreign forces to intervene.
 
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Gollevainen

the corporal
Verified Defense Pro
Isn't that exactly what they're built and deployed for? I don't believe the Chinese military considers them to be "wunderwaffen", but as long as the Taiwanese people is afraid of them they are doing well, aren't they? Demoralising, that is. A militia or reserve soldier probably won't be thinking about accuracy or blast radius if he believes some 800 of them will come down on him any minute.
Exactly. Their main role is to keep the Taiwanese general people awere that there's alot of missiles pointed towards them. But if you decide to launch them without nuclear warheads, even 800 wont make much difference to the ROCA's defence ability. Chinese leadership is aware of this, but sadly not all those members that participate in this thread.
 

weasel1962

New Member
Re:

I would highlight that MRLS or MLRS do have some anti-runway capabilities eg Astros.

http://www.army-technology.com/projects/astros/

Tot this was quite a good summary of sub-munition capabilities as a whole (with China data).
http://www.hrw.org/backgrounder/arms/submunitions.pdf

I agree on the following:

(a) There is no historical precedent of ballistic missiles shutting down airfields/bases on their own.
(b) Even despite the high accuracy TALM attacks in GW1, the US couldn't shut down all of Iraq's airfields.
(c) The WS-2 range cannot cover all airfields in Taiwan.

However, we should also recognise:

(d) China does possess anti-runway capabilities eg anti-runway cluster submunitions and the means to deliver these.
(e) We are also assuming that Chinese ballistic missiles (BM) will be delivering conventional HE warheads instead of submunition dispersals.
(f) Whilst trying to hit a runway accurately with a BM is difficult, a CEP of 30m using submunitions has a disperal area which would cover a far wider area and still render an airfield ineffective.

btw, my service experience was limited to ground based SAM and basic infantry and even then I don't claim to know everything about SAMs and AAA. I'm no genius where it comes to numbers so I rely on external sources:

One very good resource which I recommend a review are the calculations done by Rand on the effectiveness of submunitions (they included the M-9 as the default).

http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1028/MR1028.chap3.pdf
http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1028/MR1028.appa.pdf

As per normal, I make no claims on the effectiveness and this is merely to highlight that some do think it is possible (at least in theory).
 

tphuang

Super Moderator
Because that's not their job. Or do you think the JH-7As do not have the job of handling anti-ship missions?
one regiment of JH-7A is enough to do that.
Everybody's short of money. What makes you think China is so flush with money? If China was indeed so flush with money why would decisions have to be made on how money was allocated to programs?

Reasonable motivations for purchasing more KD-88s, but there are also other reasons why KD-88s may not be fielded in the numbers you expect. First, are you really sure KD-88 is cheaper than the Kh-59? Second, are you sure the KH-59s bought have not already fulfilled a fair chunk of PLAAF long range missile requirements?
KD-88 is a superior missile in terms of range, accuracy and such. As for cost, It shares a similar body to YJ-83 which is also in mass production, you can come up with your own conclusion on why it would be cheap.

Do you have any proof that mission planning for the missile can be done aboard the JH-7A? Is the KD-88 a ground skimming cruise missile or is it a simple minded fly straight to the target at high altitude missile? If the latter, then perhaps it can be done on the JH-7A, but you do not have a very stealthy missile there.
YJ-91 is the one that flies fast at high altitude missile, I would think KD-88 would have fly low like YJ-83K. Remember, JH-7A have for years being firing off YJ-83K which would also require a level of mission planning. It can also fire KH-59. I'm not sure what kind of proof you are looking for, but software like this is not that hard to develop compared to something like FBW.

Only the WS-2 will be able to reach taiwan's coast, and only under optimal conditions which allow for max range.
domestic version of WS-2 can hit anywhere in Taiwan.

I think I made my points to you already, just wanted to show that plaaf has a lot more up its sleeves than most people think.
 

tphuang

Super Moderator
Thank you Gollevainen. For pointing out that an Island cant be taken with a missile. And for pointing out that "this is better then that" type banter has very little practical value.

Recently the USA has come out and said that the mainland Chinese are incapable of taking the Island of Taiwan by force. And actually, when looking at PLAN construction and procurements, it would appear that the "take Taiwan" strategy is not the driving force behind their military modernization. Taiwan has no super-carriers ,so its rather obvious the PLAN is not modernizing with the Taiwanese navy in mind.

Rather the Chinese strategic goal is to have a navy capable of securing its trade routes, and, capable of projecting a blue water force in Asia as a whole. I guess they figure that once they can claim the Asian oceans from the USN that the Taiwan issue will take care of itself.

Building IRBMs is cheap. Building a amphibious force capable of taking that Island is not, and doing so would divert funds from its blue water navy. So why do that? Most of all when diplomatic pressure and threats have coerced the rest of the world, except for America, to abandon Taiwan? Taiwan used to buy military equipment from 20 western countries, and now, the only one who hasn't knifed them in the back is we Yanks.
well, the claim that China shouldn't have a blue water navy is just ridiculous. If nobody is commenting on IN getting 3 carriers, I don't see why people are complaining about China getting carriers. Heck, even Brazil has a CATOBAR carrier. Why don't you explain to me why a country that's about to have the world's highest GDP in terms of PPP in a few years shouldn't be allowed to have a navy that protects its own interest?
 

weasel1962

New Member
Re:

"domestic version of WS-2 can hit anywhere in Taiwan."

Uh, I can see where the "wunderwaffen" comes from. Domestic version will need 400km range to hit heng-chun in Taiwan from mainland (and that's assuming coastal edge. 300km range just to hit Hua Lien. What's the range of the WS-2D?
 

crobato

New Member
Which could have resulted in enough long range AGMs for PLAAF's needs that they didn't require a large buy of KD-88s. The simple fact of the matter is you have no idea how many long range PGMs are in China's inventory.
And as a matter of fact, you don't have any idea if they are short or not. Do you have any evidence at all of their number? Don't project ROCAF shortages into the PLAAF situation. They have more money (besides the official budget); they manufacture the munitions, whch means lower procurement costs with less middlemen. The only factor that may reduce the number of one type of munition, is because of the development and pending introductions of even more advanced smart munitions.

There is no clear boundaries between the surface capabilities of the PLAAF and the PLANAF, except on the primary assignment. This does not mean that the PLAAF is capable of antiship attacks as their secondary assignment or the PLANAF won't do bomb attacks on their secondary assignment. The capabilities of the aircraft remain the same. And it does not appear that the JH-7A may be the only aircraft that will use the KD-88.

All you see is a pod and you determine that that pod has a geo-location capability?
I have seen the pod that goes with the LGB, and its a very different one. That rules out FLIR/IT. The YJ-83s and optically guided KD-88s do not use the pod at all which rules out an extended datalink. The pod is only first seen with the YJ-91 and now with the passive KD-88, so chances are good, it is a rangefinding RWR.

Looking at the system as a whole, if it is doing its job of repelling enemy air strikes, who cares whether the radars are blinking?
If its blinking, its not repelling an air strike. It won't be capable of air search and it cannot track targets or guide missiles. Simple as that. Either you want to survive or you want to do your job.

When China makes a large scale mobilisation, whether for war or a claimed 'exercise', do you think the Taiwanese will be foolish enough to sit on their bums?
Of course, we know the Taiwanese always respond. But its hard to say when you are crying wolf, and when its the actual thing. They always respond ritually to China's ritual mobilizations, and the end result is that its the "same boring, this tmie of the year again, let's get our jets ready."

All the SRBMs leaving their bases, all the tanks getting loaded on the LSTs, do you really believe Taiwan is going to believe that to be an innocent 'exercise'? You really believe only China has spies and not Taiwan?
YOu don't even need spies to spot SRBM trucks leaving their bases. LOE sats can do that. I'm pretty Taiwan has its spies, PLA has gone into record executing some of them. The thing is, even in exercises, SRBMs leave their bases, and tanks are loaded into LSTs. What makes you think that an exercise does not incorporate these as well? An exercises is made to recreate wartime conditions. Somehow you think that an exercise means an SRBM staying at home, and tanks are only hypothetically played out... Heh..

China can only do that against fixed radar sites.
No. You can do this against mobile sites as well.

Trying to divert attention? Wasn't this about experience in using PGMs? :rolleyes:
You make me laugh. You seem to think the mainland people are that stupid, given the annoying suggestively racist arrogance in your tone of debate. You think they just fly up in the air, fire a PGM or too, and be done with it? (Heck in the ROCAF, they don't even have enough live missiles to fire for practice).

The PLA conducts large scale, Blue vs. Red Flag joint exercises. One typical execise would have JH-7As in the Blue Flag group try to bomb the airfield of Red Flag group, and the J-10s would try to intercept them.

And yet fragmentation is not uniform. Considering also that ROC airbases are hardened, nothing short of a direct hit will suffice in many cases.

Take a look here: http://www.nautilus.org/archives/napsnet/dr/0105/MAY23.html

Shows you how much Taiwan has prepared, and what Boyne says runs directly counter to your claim that fighters cannot be repositioned. It seems that is exactly what ROC plans for its expanded and hardened airbases like Chihang and Chashan.
Old old report. What 2001? You have a base designed for the "old" PLAAF, never one to anticipate rapid changes. As if you think the air war is still conducted by MiG-21s dropping iron bombs.

You have no idea that PGM development has dramatically overtaken loser bunker strategies. PGMs can smash the entrances and openings of underground bases. They can hit vital parts of the runaways, rendering them useless until repaired. Cluster munitions, fragmentation, thermobaric warheads can render large areas of the base unusuable, and the larger the area made useless, the longer it takes to repair them. As if its easy to repair a base while you are still under bombardment.

China did not just import Kh-59ME, but also 500kg and 1500kg TV guided bombs like the KAB-1500kr. The 1500kg bomb is a true bunker buster. We know see that 500kg LGBs have become common place even in Q-5s. Yesterday, we have photo confirmation that the J-10 can use LGBs.


How long will it take to bulldoze unexploded munitions away from sensitive structures? Think about it yourself. Small craters are not a problem.
http://www.elastomer.com/polymer/bulletins/gatewayairport/gatewayairport.html
Pouring the fill and letting it dry takes about an hour. But how long does it take to prepare that. Cutting the sections like that is going to take more than an hour. Multiply that job with hundreds of craters on the ground. Then consider doing that job while being under fire.

Good luck.

Even the picture shows nothing but working on a crack. What about a big hole or a crater like 10 feed deep? If I opened up a crater, you need to fill it. Then you need to tamper the fill to the right density, before you start even putting two or three layers of fill. I've seen work on roads. They tend to take the better half of the day, and if its large areas, make it days.

How you even think that link is an example of fixing major bomb craters on the ground is beyond me.

Thermobaric weapons? How many warheads are equipped with those? What makes you think thermobaric weapons are so special? The effectiveness of thermobaric weapons are highly variable according to atmospheric conditions, and becaus ethey have little fragmentation effects, their effects are limited to the blast zone.
LOL. Thermobaric weapons do not explode like explosives do, and their radius for that matter is much greater. I am just shaking my head here how you think that thermobaric weapons will have the same radius as explosives would. Thermobaric weapons are fuel or jelly based. As one part explodes, it expands and throws the fuel outward, which in turn ignites and throws even more of it outward.

Give me a source, considering the report strikes me as more reliable than you.

[Admin: Text deleted. You've been on here long enough to know what is acceptable language. If you can't answer without resorting to the use of reproductive or scatalogical expletives, then don't answer at all]


Is that from BryanC making his speculation in the CDF? You can get the ORBAT of the 2nd Artillery from both globalsecurity.org and sinodefence.com. 2nd Artillery uses DF-15 and DS-21 SRBMs. Since there are only a small number of ICBMs, and a handful of nuclear weapons, the vast majority of the 2nd Artillery are conventional, the nuke or conventional warhead being selected and added to the SRBM.

There are 15 regular rocket brigades in the 2nd Artillery with 20 to 30 launchers each, not counting special test brigades.

These don't even INCLUDE the DF-11s facing Taiwan. The DF-11s are regular PLA units, and are NOT attached with the Strategic Rocket forces. The 900 missiles located near and aimed at Taiwan are referred to as DF-11s. What about the missiles from other parts of the country that can be called in?


Only the WS-2 will be able to reach taiwan's coast, and only under optimal conditions which allow for max range.
With a 200km range, that will certainly bring most parts of the coast and some part inward within range of the WS-2. Again, the WS-2 is not in the DF-11 total.

So at the end of the day, you have no proof, yet you chose to claim that China had training and advice from the Israelis. Thw way you refuse to consider that chinese could have just chosen to copy an Israeli training tactic shows how you choose to interpret things the way you want things to be and not how they are likely to be.
You seem to think there is a friggin boundary between tactical and technological data. When you have a group that is already willing to sell their expertise, what makes you think there is going to be a boundary between the technological and the tactical. If the Israelis sold weapons tech to China, they should clue the Chinese how to use it as well. Both tactical and technological expertise often goes together hand in hand, and it is difficult when to seperate the both. Get some common sense will you.

In the end, the result is PLAAF units practicing LGBs, EO, and sat guided weapons at carefully well recreated mock airbases and SAM defense units in the Gobi Desert.
 
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crobato

New Member
Thank you Gollevainen. For pointing out that an Island cant be taken with a missile. And for pointing out that "this is better then that" type banter has very little practical value.

Recently the USA has come out and said that the mainland Chinese are incapable of taking the Island of Taiwan by force. And actually, when looking at PLAN construction and procurements, it would appear that the "take Taiwan" strategy is not the driving force behind their military modernization. Taiwan has no super-carriers ,so its rather obvious the PLAN is not modernizing with the Taiwanese navy in mind.

Rather the Chinese strategic goal is to have a navy capable of securing its trade routes, and, capable of projecting a blue water force in Asia as a whole. I guess they figure that once they can claim the Asian oceans from the USN that the Taiwan issue will take care of itself.

Building IRBMs is cheap. Building a amphibious force capable of taking that Island is not, and doing so would divert funds from its blue water navy. So why do that? Most of all when diplomatic pressure and threats have coerced the rest of the world, except for America, to abandon Taiwan? Taiwan used to buy military equipment from 20 western countries, and now, the only one who hasn't knifed them in the back is we Yanks.
Boy you yanks knifed them pretty bad along with Northrop on the F-20 deal.

Anyway, there is a good chance, and an increasing one at that, that China may seem to be losing "interest" on the Taiwan issue, which has created a xenophobic myopia with China's geopolitical strategies. In the end, its very likely that if peaceful unification is not achieved, then some kind of accomodation would be made.
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
thermobaric warheads can render large areas of the base unusuable, and the larger the area made useless, the longer it takes to repair them. As if its easy to repair a base while you are still under bombardment.

thermobarics aren't as useful for "structural/urban replanning" as conventional weapons. the example you're giving is not the ideal scenario to use them at all.

LOL. Thermobaric weapons do not explode like explosives do, and their radius for that matter is much greater. I am just shaking my head here how you think that thermobaric weapons will have the same radius as explosives would. Thermobaric weapons are fuel or jelly based. As one part explodes, it expands and throws the fuel outward, which in turn ignites and throws even more of it outward.
actually thermobaric weapons don't work like you say either. you're confusing (some of this with) fuel air explosives not thermobarics.
 

weasel1962

New Member
Re:

Since ROC rapid runway repair kits came from the US, tot this might give an understanding of RRR techniques. Not everything can be solved by quick cement. Also there is a limit to materials for repair.

Repair isn't just going to the damage areas and start filling in cement. Evaluation is still required.

http://www.wbdg.org/ccb/DOD/UFC/ufc_3_270_07.pdf

If you're really interested, you can purchase

http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_memoranda/RM730/

However, I do note a report which has a very interesting comment on Taiwanese repair capabilities and vulnerabilities:

"Taiwan has very limited ability to conduct rapid runway repairs."
http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1315/MR1315.ch4.pdf

Rand has also done a similar 111 page study on a China vs Taiwan which should make for interesting reading:

http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/2007/MR1217.pdf

Didn't look too good for the PLA...
 

Transient

Member
And as a matter of fact, you don't have any idea if they are short or not. Do you have any evidence at all of their number? Don't project ROCAF shortages into the PLAAF situation. They have more money (besides the official budget); they manufacture the munitions, whch means lower procurement costs with less middlemen. The only factor that may reduce the number of one type of munition, is because of the development and pending introductions of even more advanced smart munitions.
I don't know, and I have never claimed to know. You are the one who backed tphuang's claim that China has enough to use at the scale which tphuang suggests. So far all your 'proof' has been nothing more than pure conjecture. The underlying truth is that you are just in the dark as me, yet you proceed to push for your view as if it is based on solid fact.

There is no clear boundaries between the surface capabilities of the PLAAF and the PLANAF, except on the primary assignment. This does not mean that the PLAAF is capable of antiship attacks as their secondary assignment or the PLANAF won't do bomb attacks on their secondary assignment. The capabilities of the aircraft remain the same. And it does not appear that the JH-7A may be the only aircraft that will use the KD-88.
Are the pilots trained to conduct missions not under their scope of responsibility? If they are not, then they have essentially no capability in areas they have not trained for, even if the airframe is technically capable of the mission.

I have seen the pod that goes with the LGB, and its a very different one. That rules out FLIR/IT. The YJ-83s and optically guided KD-88s do not use the pod at all which rules out an extended datalink. The pod is only first seen with the YJ-91 and now with the passive KD-88, so chances are good, it is a rangefinding RWR.
Fair enough.

If its blinking, its not repelling an air strike. It won't be capable of air search and it cannot track targets or guide missiles. Simple as that. Either you want to survive or you want to do your job.
Another radar will contribute to the air picture while this is happening. The ROC has a IADS. The ROC AD system can also use radar decoys to maintain survivability.

Of course, we know the Taiwanese always respond. But its hard to say when you are crying wolf, and when its the actual thing. They always respond ritually to China's ritual mobilizations, and the end result is that its the "same boring, this tmie of the year again, let's get our jets ready."

YOu don't even need spies to spot SRBM trucks leaving their bases. LOE sats can do that. I'm pretty Taiwan has its spies, PLA has gone into record executing some of them. The thing is, even in exercises, SRBMs leave their bases, and tanks are loaded into LSTs. What makes you think that an exercise does not incorporate these as well? An exercises is made to recreate wartime conditions. Somehow you think that an exercise means an SRBM staying at home, and tanks are only hypothetically played out... Heh..
Where's your 'common sense'? :rolleyes: Do you understand the comcept of 'scale'? When a mobilisation of the scale at which an invasion of Taiwan is required is underway, you bet your chestnut Taiwan will take notice. Mobilisations of such scale is not something that can be done easily or often.

No. You can do this against mobile sites as well.
China has demonstrated its capability at time-critical targeting? Swell. Where?

You make me laugh. You seem to think the mainland people are that stupid, given the annoying suggestively racist arrogance in your tone of debate.
Mirror mirror in the wall, which pot is the blackest of them all? :eek:nfloorl:

The PLA conducts large scale, Blue vs. Red Flag joint exercises. One typical execise would have JH-7As in the Blue Flag group try to bomb the airfield of Red Flag group, and the J-10s would try to intercept them.
It conducts its training without any real world experience whatsoever. Not saying that the training is useless in increasing the effectiveness of the PLAAF, far from it. But the PLA will find that many problems and lessons can only be learnt on a real battlefield, just as the Americans found out.

Old old report. What 2001? You have a base designed for the "old" PLAAF, never one to anticipate rapid changes. As if you think the air war is still conducted by MiG-21s dropping iron bombs.

You have no idea that PGM development has dramatically overtaken loser bunker strategies. PGMs can smash the entrances and openings of underground bases. They can hit vital parts of the runaways, rendering them useless until repaired. Cluster munitions, fragmentation, thermobaric warheads can render large areas of the base unusuable, and the larger the area made useless, the longer it takes to repair them. As if its easy to repair a base while you are still under bombardment.
"loser bunker strategies"? My, it's unbelievable what having some PGMs will do to up the cockiness levels of PLA-fanboys. :rolleyes: Try getting through the SAM defenses and the CAPs first then start talking about the effectiveness of those PGMs. You might want to look at the orientation of those bunker entrances too, and what those bunkers are constructed in.

Pouring the fill and letting it dry takes about an hour. But how long does it take to prepare that. Cutting the sections like that is going to take more than an hour. Multiply that job with hundreds of craters on the ground. Then consider doing that job while being under fire.
Even the picture shows nothing but working on a crack. What about a big hole or a crater like 10 feed deep? If I opened up a crater, you need to fill it. Then you need to tamper the fill to the right density, before you start even putting two or three layers of fill. I've seen work on roads. They tend to take the better half of the day, and if its large areas, make it days.
What makes you think China can pour sustained fire on the airbases, some of which are virtually impervious to SRBMs? And the Folded Fiberglass Mat Rapid Runway Repair system in use by the ROCAF does not need the fill to dry. A similar system used by the US can see the entire repair evolution completed within 42 min.

http://www.navy.mil/search/display.asp?story_id=28581

And what SRBM warhead makes such a deep crater? Not the submunitions. Oh yes. Those limited number of guided warheads with accuracies of 150m or so, and 50m at best. 50% of the time.

Is that from BryanC making his speculation in the CDF? You can get the ORBAT of the 2nd Artillery from both globalsecurity.org and sinodefence.com. 2nd Artillery uses DF-15 and DS-21 SRBMs. Since there are only a small number of ICBMs, and a handful of nuclear weapons, the vast majority of the 2nd Artillery are conventional, the nuke or conventional warhead being selected and added to the SRBM.

There are 15 regular rocket brigades in the 2nd Artillery with 20 to 30 launchers each, not counting special test brigades.

These don't even INCLUDE the DF-11s facing Taiwan. The DF-11s are regular PLA units, and are NOT attached with the Strategic Rocket forces. The 900 missiles located near and aimed at Taiwan are referred to as DF-11s. What about the missiles from other parts of the country that can be called in?
I gave you the source of my figures, you were just unable to read.

With a 200km range, that will certainly bring most parts of the coast and some part inward within range of the WS-2. Again, the WS-2 is not in the DF-11 total.
With the accuracies offered by the WS-2, the PLA troops will themselves be looking upwards in fear. More than that, considering the distances involved, I wonder how soon a fire mission can be processed? Perhaps Gollevainan can give us an idea of the difficulties imposed by having to communicate over the horizon to the WS-2 units on the mainland?

You seem to think there is a friggin boundary between tactical and technological data. When you have a group that is already willing to sell their expertise, what makes you think there is going to be a boundary between the technological and the tactical. If the Israelis sold weapons tech to China, they should clue the Chinese how to use it as well. Both tactical and technological expertise often goes together hand in hand, and it is difficult when to seperate the both. Get some common sense will you.

In the end, the result is PLAAF units practicing LGBs, EO, and sat guided weapons at carefully well recreated mock airbases and SAM defense units in the Gobi Desert.
Lots of hot air, still no proof. Shouting and ranting won't obfuscate the fact that you made a totaly baseless claim.


Try to do an exercise. Look at the west coast of Taiwan in Googleearth and observe the coastal defenses rigged along the shore conducive to an amphibious assault.
 

weasel1962

New Member
Anyway, there is a good chance, and an increasing one at that, that China may seem to be losing "interest" on the Taiwan issue, which has created a xenophobic myopia with China's geopolitical strategies. In the end, its very likely that if peaceful unification is not achieved, then some kind of accomodation would be made.
That's zero chance at the moment.

Lt Gen Zhang QinSheng, deputy chief of general staff just gave a speech over the weekend to defense ministers across the region on the Chinese perspective of the security situation in AP and no surprises that the Taiwan issue still occupies forefront of chinese policy.

I quote:

"We always put national sovereignty and territory integrity first, but not seek absolute military dominance."

http://www.iiss.org/conferences/the.../second-plenary-session--lt-gen-zhang-qinshen

In the Q&A, he highlighted

"In response to this kind of size, China should have a proportionate military capability, and China also has another problem which is the Taiwan issue. The Taiwan authorities still challenge the integrity of China. Some people in Taiwan are still doing things to - about secessionism, so China's military must be prepared to cope with this kind of threat, and if anything happens, China's military must be able to respond.

China will never allow Taiwan to be separated from the Chinese territory. Taiwan is a core interest of China. Regarding the Taiwan issue, China will try everything, including political diplomatic, economic and even military forces to defend the territorial integrity of China to present Taiwan's secessionism."

http://www.iiss.org/conferences/the...ssion-speeches-2007/second-plenary-session-qa

For other speechs, you can refer to:
http://www.iiss.org/conferences/the-shangri-la-dialogue
 

Yasin20

New Member
if they were attacking Taiwan dos this mean there would be more NATO forces sent into south korea and after Taiwan would there be other targets
 

Manfred

New Member
One thing I have always found odd- how a nation of 25 million can stand up to a nation of 1.2 billion... and everyone takes this stand-off seriously.

If Communist China made Taiwan it's top priority, how long do you think it would take to manufacture enough sea-lift capability to do the job? Six months, nine? How many European arms dealers would hesitate to sell them what they need?

If there was a simultanious invasion of Taiwan and South Korea, which place would get priority?

One last question; is there another way? Could China put enough economic pressure on Tiawan to force a take-over, and absorb it like they are doing with Hong Kong?
 

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
One thing I have always found odd- how a nation of 25 million can stand up to a nation of 1.2 billion... and everyone takes this stand-off seriously.
Because that isn't how warfare works. Otherwise how was Vietnam or South Korea/the UN supposed to stand against China? Sure China is much more economically stable and advanced now, but that doesn't change the fact China couldn't focus all its military resources on Taiwan.

If Communist China made Taiwan it's top priority, how long do you think it would take to manufacture enough sea-lift capability to do the job? Six months, nine?
And all this sudden activity would mean China couldn't easily make a surprise attack, because both the US and Taiwan would watch China that more closely.

But, again, China isn't carrying out such a massive build-up.

How many European arms dealers would hesitate to sell them what they need?
I doubt very much Chinese invasion barges would be manufactured in Europe or anything of the like - up until now there has been more co-operation on technical issues and the like. But if China were going to attack Taiwan, there would be less sales/co-operation not more.

If there was a simultanious invasion of Taiwan and South Korea, which place would get priority?
Except that would not happen, unless China were very, very stupid.

However, given Pyongyang now has nuclear weapons, the US would probably try to declaw it and finish the threat with its own nukes first. Otherwise if North Korea were beaten back it might use them in desperation.

So if China goaded NK into attacking SK, it would have pissed off South Korea and made intervention by Japan much more likely. Then it would have to deal with a three-way coalition that would directly back Taiwan. Russia would also turn hostile, even though it would not get militarily involved.

You also have to remember that the US would not direct ground troops to Taiwan, only sea and air assets. The sort of assets that could help Taiwan would not dramatically change the course of war in Korea, especially given that North Korea's air and naval forces are not much of a danger.

One last question; is there another way? Could China put enough economic pressure on Tiawan to force a take-over, and absorb it like they are doing with Hong Kong?
Hong Kong was not forcibly taken over - part reverted to Chinese control and the rest was handed back for better Sino-British relations and to ensure all of Hong Kong had some rights. HKers had no say, whereas the Taiwanese constitution would need to be changed/scrapped - the pro-independence/pro-Taiwan section of the population would almost certainly be able to block that because of the procedure that must be followed.

As to Hong Kong being "absorbed", certainly economic links between China and HK are good, but politically the people are not rolling over and doing what Beijing wants. There was a grave mistaken belief that they would do what the business community has, put money ahead of freedoms. But it's clear they want real democracy. If a mere city that had no say in what happened in 1997 is so stubborn, I don't see how an island of the size of Taiwan will be made to capitulate given they can veto any change.
 

weasel1962

New Member
Re:

2 issues.

Firstly, I think there are major differences between HK and Taiwan. HK was forcibly annexed from China during the Opium Wars of 1840s. Taiwan is seen as a internal secession issue by China and doesn't require the acquiesce of any major power.

Secondly, my assessment is that Japan will intervene in a Sino-US conflict over Taiwan. The only question is how much. The levels being (from lowest to highest):

1) Lowest level of participation - Base use

Japan would very likely be pushed into allowing US to operate combat flights from Japanese bases in Okinawa. Actually, I think there is very little Japan can do to avoid this. They would probably claim US already has the right to take off and land at Japanese bases so what the USMC, USAF or USN aircraft does after they take off is none of Japan's business. Hence this level is a virtual certainty.

2) Middle level of participation - Base defences

Japan may take aggressive postures to undertake defensive operations to limit intrusions into its airspace. JSDF aircraft could probably make it clear that it will intercept enemy forces attempting to attack Japanese bases. This would create a Vietnam situation for China (where US air forces were restricted from attacking certain targets). Hence this would not appeal to China.

This would appeal to the US because its aircraft are most vulnerable on the ground.

3) Highest level of participation - Active involvement

Japan could be pressed into participating in "allied" operations. Since their participation is likely to galvanise internal Chinese morale, public opinion and resistance (particularly invoking Japanese WW2 aspirations which, unlike Germany, are never really dismissed within Japan), China may calculate that Japanese involvement at this level would stiffen local Chinese resolve and thereforce work towards engaging Japan at this level.

China could escalate to this level via missile attacks on Japanese cities which would probably enrage Japanese sentiment.
 

Manfred

New Member
I doubt very much Chinese invasion barges would be manufactured in Europe or anything of the like - up until now there has been more co-operation on technical issues and the like. But if China were going to attack Taiwan, there would be less sales/co-operation not more.

I wasnt talking about barges, I was thinking of Anti Missle systems and the like. However, there are an awful lot of old Amphibious warfare ships just sitting around, more than enough to to double China's sea-lift capacity overnight... interesting thought.

So if China goaded NK into attacking SK, it would have pissed off South Korea and made intervention by Japan much more likely. Then it would have to deal with a three-way coalition that would directly back Taiwan. Russia would also turn hostile, even though it would not get militarily involved.

Russian hostility, because a rickety old regime is finally going to fall? Maybe, and maybe not.
Why would China have to goad them into doing anything? All they have to do is leak word to their double agants in N. Korea about what is about to happen, and the date, and that might be all is takes for Kin ill-dung to make the move on his own. He can save his little nuke for a deterent... and that might keep-nuke-less Japan out of it for a while
In any case, are you saying that simultanious invasions would result in no division of effort whatsoever? I kinda doubt that. The US has boots on the ground in Korea, and if anything goes wrong, those troops will get priority for air support.

Here is another one for you- We are argeed that China can only project a small part of its military towards Taiwan. How can they use the other millions of soldiers they have? How about sending them to Korea... North Korea to be exact. ;)
They could either provide massive reiforcements... or just seeem to have that intention. The PRC could just as easly roll that counrty right up, double cross the most friendless nation on Earth, and appear to be South Korea's savior at the same time.
Would a Byzantine move like that not make Taiwan's situation a little more complicated... even make them look expendable?

I am aware of the difference between HK and Taiwan. However, from my point of view, China does seem to have effective control over the city now.
 

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
I wasnt talking about barges, I was thinking of Anti Missle systems and the like. However, there are an awful lot of old Amphibious warfare ships just sitting around, more than enough to to double China's sea-lift capacity overnight... interesting thought.
On both counts, no chance.

Russian hostility, because a rickety old regime is finally going to fall? Maybe, and maybe not.
No, Russian hostility because China would have kickstarted a regional conflict involving all the big players there (bar it) that had the potential to end in nuclear confrontation.

Why would China have to goad them into doing anything?
Because there is no way the North Koreans would be so moronic as try to use a Taiwanese war to attack the South. For one thing, they would have no idea how to run the place if they were successful - having the South Koreans being rich means they can get lots of free stuff. If they took over the whole thing would collapse and they'd have lost one of the countries that keeps helping it out. For a second, they're not stupid. War would create the chance they would lose and this time be kicked out of power - or blown up into tiny pieces.

If they decided to roll the dice, what would actually be much better would be to wait until China and the US were thoroughly engaged. Then when it's too late for the US to turn around, they make their move. They would let China take the brunt of US force in the area, not the other way around.

How can they use the other millions of soldiers they have? How about sending them to Korea... North Korea to be exact.
Again, that would be the best way to start World War III. Besides it would still need to keep a large number of its forces in reserve in China. What if China thought it could tie up the US and then finds India's kicking down the back door? If it's fighting a war on two fronts, it's not likely it will be able to cope with a third.

The PRC could just as easly roll that counrty right up, double cross the most friendless nation on Earth, and appear to be South Korea's savior at the same time.
In which case Kim (if he has a means of delivering them) returns the favour and blasts the hell out of China/South Korea with whatever nukes he has squirreled away.

I am aware of the difference between HK and Taiwan. However, from my point of view, China does seem to have effective control over the city now.
Yes and no. Beijing is able to manipulate the political system because of the way it works. However the people themselves are not interested in just doing what they're told. In the future, even with the functional constituencies, the Pan-democratic parties could take a majority of seats in the legislative chamber.
 

Manfred

New Member
If Russia plays the role of the Great Neutral, they have nothing to loose and everything to gain... or so it might apear to a creature like Putin.

On both counts, no chance.
How so? Is there no chance of any arms dealer making shadey deals with China, transfering technology under the table to make themsevles and their country rich? Ever heard of France or Russia?

Kin Il Jong is not the most sensible guy in the world. If he sees a chance to be a bigger man than his father, I think he will jump at the chance.

India... India conducting a successful military action agianst the PLA? Well, I guess there has to be a first time for everything. :rolleyes: I doubt that it would take many Chinese troops to cover the Himalayan Mountians.
On the other hand, Myanmar might seem to be an atractive target; a Chinese client state that gives the PLA a chance to out-flank those same mountains.

I take it for granted that China has a much more effective spy network in North Korean than Japan, and therefore would find it much easier to to find and destroy a couple of big, clumsy bombs than anyone else.

If you control Hong Kong Politicaly and Militarily, then you have more influence on the corporate bosses there than anyone else.
 
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