Beltrami2005
Member
I think whats being tried to accomplish is the fall of the mullah regime. Its weaker than ever before.
Middle East Defence & Security
- Thread starter MaenZ
- Start date
Is it? It seamed to wether the Israeli war and assassination attempts fine.also whatever amount of the riots were forgin supported.
One should take into account Iran's heavy and long standing focus on asysetrical warfare. I'm not saying that Iran is a military powerhouse here or that it dosnt have massive probloms. I'm just saying it's a country that is more prepared to fight against the military options generally used by the west then most. There is a reason why this is not the first time were hearing Iran is about to fall yes it's still there.
It's hard to see how airpower will effect regime change and even harder to see the u.s commiting to a ground war, there is little reason to believe that can be achieved without massive cost or at least a high risk of it.
Like it or not Iran has proven it has the capability to hit defended targets and the ability to launch those strikes in mass if it so chooses. Or do you think that capacity just up and vanished?
Iran did very poorly in their last exchange with Israel. This is, in principle, not very surprising. Iran has relied heavily on domestic air defense systems, and they don't seem to be particularly impressive. And their missile capabilities seem to have been relatively limited. So I think it will be very possible to continue to do damage to Iran through air campaigns. Whether that will actually bring down the regime is another question. Often a foreign enemy will unite a divided country.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
There're thinking in western media or online forums, which seems believe what Iranian Diaspora behaviour and demand going to be reflected to Iran domestic crowd. Something that more delutional then ever. Those Diaspora most having growing up even born in Western environment. They are reflectimg more Western sentiment then real Iranian domestic ones. Even Trump does not want to endorse young Pahlevi, as even he don't buy the young Shah pretender has strong support with domestic Iranian.
Iran’s military-grade crackdown expands from Kurdish areas – and Kurds fear the worst
The Iranian regime’s recent crackdown on protests in Tehran and the country’s central region featured the use of military weapons, such as automatic or semi-automatic machine guns, that were previously…
The worst uprising turn out as usuall more in Iran Kurdish teritories. Yes now more ground movement from Persian Iranian in central region happening. However it is also being put down with heavy hand. Some argue heavy hand only increase resistance. Well it could be, but so far it is calm down relatively. Different with heavy handed approach from Shah regime that creating his downfall.
Iranian that I know (real Iranian and not Western born Parsi) are proud and nationalistic people. As the article shown they are increasingly critical to Mulah regime, but also not going to accept Shah's crown prince. They have seen their country getting regime change in 50's and only make their Shah become corrupt and totaliterian regime. They have seen in 70's the uprising against Shah only bring another totaliterian Mullah regime.
Any changes in Iran will now depend on their own pace. They will not again accept western 'help' on regime change, that only bring another totaliterian regime or chaos like Syria. So yes, I do also believe US lead attack will strengthen current regime, as the Iranian will see common enemy.
Beltrami2005
Member
An iranian i know who lives in Shiraz and is offline since two weeks... absolute hates the mullah regime. Anectodal framing doesnt help. He absolute wants outside help.There're thinking in western media or online forums, which seems believe what Iranian Diaspora behaviour and demand going to be reflected to Iran domestic crowd. Something that more delutional then ever. Those Diaspora most having growing up even born in Western environment. They are reflectimg more Western sentiment then real Iranian domestic ones. Even Trump does not want to endorse young Pahlevi, as even he don't buy the young Shah pretender has strong support with domestic Iranian.
Iran’s military-grade crackdown expands from Kurdish areas – and Kurds fear the worst
The Iranian regime’s recent crackdown on protests in Tehran and the country’s central region featured the use of military weapons, such as automatic or semi-automatic machine guns, that were previously…www.france24.com
The worst uprising turn out as usuall more in Iran Kurdish teritories. Yes now more ground movement from Persian Iranian in central region happening. However it is also being put down with heavy hand. Some argue heavy hand only increase resistance. Well it could be, but so far it is calm down relatively. Different with heavy handed approach from Shah regime that creating his downfall.
Iranian that I know (real Iranian and not Western born Parsi) are proud and nationalistic people. As the article shown they are increasingly critical to Mulah regime, but also not going to accept Shah's crown prince. They have seen their country getting regime change in 50's and only make their Shah become corrupt and totaliterian regime. They have seen in 70's the uprising against Shah only bring another totaliterian Mullah regime.
Any changes in Iran will now depend on their own pace. They will not again accept western 'help' on regime change, that only bring another totaliterian regime or chaos like Syria. So yes, I do also believe US lead attack will strengthen current regime, as the Iranian will see common enemy.
The Mullahs have nothing to offer for their people. The country collapses. Tehran doesnt even have water anymore. The fundamental service cant be provided.
This is plain wrong. Most Iranian international students I know absolutely ask for foreign intervention. The regime is deeply hated by about 80-90% of Iranians. All of them have their immediate family in Iran. What I doubt about is the amount of support expressed for ther charlatan prince. Whether it is high as what the diaspora claims.
I guess the only options are to take out the leadership to make a deal with whoever climbs up next or a smybolic strike as in Syria during the Obama administration.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Again the opinion of Diaspora (and International Students are part of that) is not reflecting the feeling on domestics. There's no denial that support for Mullah Regime already comming down for years now. However does not mean the Iranian especially in the Iran it self want to have Foreign Intervention for Regime Change.
They already see what foreign intervention bring to Iraq, Syria and Libya. Nothing good mostly happen through Foreign Intervention regime change especially US/Western lead in Middle East History. I also have talk with Iranian in Iran on occasion during Financial dealing (yes Iran still can gain access to Financial market, eventough not through Western control market). Also talk with market analysts on middle eastern desk. All conclude the same, Iranian opposition to Mullah Regime increasing, however they will not accept Foreign Intervention regime change.
You want to hear some Iranian diaspora kids opinion as fact, suit yourself. However the serious analysts that know more Iran as their day to day job, don't see the likelihood Foreign Intervention can push regime change. In fact it can push other way around.
Beltrami2005
Member
If one doesnt want foreign intervention he should not have a regime that invites foreign intervention. The regime must go, its as easy as that. US, Europe and Israel wont allow a nuclear Iran, it will also not allow an Iran with missile program. Thats the main goal to achieve. As best solution the regime collapes but Plan B to have a mullah stoneage regime in a collapsed state is also acceptable.