Beltrami2005
Member
I think whats being tried to accomplish is the fall of the mullah regime. Its weaker than ever before.
Middle East Defence & Security
- Thread starter MaenZ
- Start date
Is it? It seamed to wether the Israeli war and assassination attempts fine.also whatever amount of the riots were forgin supported.
One should take into account Iran's heavy and long standing focus on asysetrical warfare. I'm not saying that Iran is a military powerhouse here or that it dosnt have massive probloms. I'm just saying it's a country that is more prepared to fight against the military options generally used by the west then most. There is a reason why this is not the first time were hearing Iran is about to fall yes it's still there.
It's hard to see how airpower will effect regime change and even harder to see the u.s commiting to a ground war, there is little reason to believe that can be achieved without massive cost or at least a high risk of it.
Like it or not Iran has proven it has the capability to hit defended targets and the ability to launch those strikes in mass if it so chooses. Or do you think that capacity just up and vanished?
Iran did very poorly in their last exchange with Israel. This is, in principle, not very surprising. Iran has relied heavily on domestic air defense systems, and they don't seem to be particularly impressive. And their missile capabilities seem to have been relatively limited. So I think it will be very possible to continue to do damage to Iran through air campaigns. Whether that will actually bring down the regime is another question. Often a foreign enemy will unite a divided country.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
There're thinking in western media or online forums, which seems believe what Iranian Diaspora behaviour and demand going to be reflected to Iran domestic crowd. Something that more delutional then ever. Those Diaspora most having growing up even born in Western environment. They are reflectimg more Western sentiment then real Iranian domestic ones. Even Trump does not want to endorse young Pahlevi, as even he don't buy the young Shah pretender has strong support with domestic Iranian.
Iran’s military-grade crackdown expands from Kurdish areas – and Kurds fear the worst
The Iranian regime’s recent crackdown on protests in Tehran and the country’s central region featured the use of military weapons, such as automatic or semi-automatic machine guns, that were previously…
The worst uprising turn out as usuall more in Iran Kurdish teritories. Yes now more ground movement from Persian Iranian in central region happening. However it is also being put down with heavy hand. Some argue heavy hand only increase resistance. Well it could be, but so far it is calm down relatively. Different with heavy handed approach from Shah regime that creating his downfall.
Iranian that I know (real Iranian and not Western born Parsi) are proud and nationalistic people. As the article shown they are increasingly critical to Mulah regime, but also not going to accept Shah's crown prince. They have seen their country getting regime change in 50's and only make their Shah become corrupt and totaliterian regime. They have seen in 70's the uprising against Shah only bring another totaliterian Mullah regime.
Any changes in Iran will now depend on their own pace. They will not again accept western 'help' on regime change, that only bring another totaliterian regime or chaos like Syria. So yes, I do also believe US lead attack will strengthen current regime, as the Iranian will see common enemy.