Middle East Defence & Security

Big_Zucchini

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Brief context:
UAE + Saudi are in anti-Houthi coalition. Both support different Yemeni factions.
UAE-backed faction called STC recently occupied significant and strategically valuable territories from Saudi-backed faction.
They (UAE-backed STC) now want to cede from Yemen and form South Yemen.
Saudi Arabia wants to maintain Yemeni integrity.
Saudi Arabia warned UAE to withdraw and conducted a strike on a UAE arms shipment to STC.

The strike:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2005895322652856787

Consequently,

UAE announces:
In light of recent developments and their potential implications for the safety and effectiveness of counterterrorism missions, the Ministry of Defence announces the termination of the remaining counterterrorism personnel in Yemen of its own volition, in a manner that ensures the safety of its personnel and in coordination with the concerned partners.
Click to expand...
Full statement:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2006016164863045753

(For brevity, Saudi Arabia = Saudia)

Factors:
  1. Saudia keeps resisting normalization with Israel, even for significant returns.
  2. Saudia and Turkey are competing for islamic world leadership.
    1. Turkey uses anti-Israel rhetoric (but not action) for that.
    2. Saudia may be emulating in fear.
  3. UAE invested heavily in its relations with Israel.
    1. Imports weapons.
    2. Booming bilateral trade (>$3 billion in 2024).
  4. Israeli recognition of Somaliland emphasizes trend of regional separatism.
  5. UAE-backed STC at the same time occupied territories corresponding to historical South Yemen.
  6. UAE claim to have caved in but STC maintains control for now.
  7. Saudia is developing its MIC too little too late.
    1. UAE has made significant progress meanwhile.
    2. Meaning growing disparity in power projection capability.
Opinion:
  1. UAE-Israel coalition is forming above the Abraham Accords.
  2. Saudia, Turkey, UAE+Israel emerging as competitors in the significant existing power vacuum.
  3. Conflict is replaced with conflict, and that's good. Keeps everyone on their toes.
  4. Saudia miscalculated and would be better served in a Abrahamic coalition with UAE+Israel.
 
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Ananda

Ananda

The Bunker Group
www.aljazeera.com

Iran protesters try to break into gov’t building as demonstrations continue

A woman was arrested and three security personnel injured in the incident, according to Iranian media reports.
www.aljazeera.com www.aljazeera.com

For all the street protest that Iran Mullah regime face so far, I do see this as the most serious one. Because it is have unified demand on economic problem. Most Dictatorial regime fall not on grievance of human rights, social injustice etc, but on grass root level economic grievances.

Even Rich Iran under Shah regime, fall due to economic inequalities and corruption more then dictatorial human right problem. Grass roots economic hard ship is the biggest weapon of all throughout history on tooling down any regime.

However anti shah movement in 70's have unifying figure like Khomeini. While at this one I still don't see unifying figure like that emerge. The fail for more secular forces in Iran during anti Shah to come out with figure that can be sell, is in my opinion the biggest reason why Islamic Republic come out as winner.

At this moment the Republican Guard seems still strong and Iran Armed Forces still behind the regime. When it is begin to cracking down, then we can see more serious threat to the regime.
 
Big_Zucchini

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Venezuela the MENA angle

The main beneficiary of Maduro-era Venezuela was Iran, and its proxies by extension. South America in general was a nice cash cow particularly for the proxies who both they and Iran wanted them to have some financial independence. So they joined the drug trade. How original.

Iran also had defense investments in Venezuela. Maduro himself spoke of Iranian air defenses that arrived in Venezuela, past tense. And we know they also received drones very recently.

Venezuela isn't a rich country. And Iran is known to arm its proxies at its own expense. So we can connect the dots and see yet another financial and military impact to Iran.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2007407791867343074

This isn't really a deep topic. IRGC is already in the gutters. Even if they survive the current round of protests the entire region has basically put them on ignore.

Where it could matter a tad more is Hezbollah which is likely to stick around even when IRGC is gone.
Kinetically pressured by Israel and increasingly by the Lebanese Army, the US's war on drugs in the region is a potentially lethal pincer movement. Now it's more important to look at the drug trade again and not Venezuela specifically.

Allegedly, Hezbollah was allowed by the Obama admin to funnel hundreds of millions of drug trade dollars back to Lebanon while investigated under Project Cassandra, as a carrot for the nuclear talks. Now there is actual and even increasing pressure.

Again, this is pretty shallow. Good chances they're both toast. And RUMINT about Trumpy Maduroing Khamenei is just more bad news piliing up.
 
Big_Zucchini

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Re: Iran getting Venezuela'd.

The US has shown through Operation Midnight Hammer and Operation Absolute Resolve that they can control the information space around important ops. Even feed false rumors. Just because there are rumors and speculations, doesn't mean Iran is getting that treatment.
It is my personal assessment that Iran requires a totally different approach.

Key difference between Venezuela and Iran is that as far as military capability goes, Venezuela's was very much in its infancy. Iran on the other hand, has a sizable and well entrenched ballistic missile capability that it could utilize in its final moments.
It is very much in the interest of everyone around that Iran not utilize this arsenal. And the chances drastically drop if Iran feels like it's not being externally pressured.

Iranian protests have ramped up a few days ago but stagnated since. A few cases of breaking into a police or basij station and stealing weapons, but nothing major and certainly not in Tehran.
The biggest gap between current state and a successful revolution is armament in Tehran, and if the US and allies wanted to actively assist protesters, that would be a significant vector.

If the US desired a faster, more direct path, it would have to paralyze Iran's C2 but also ensure the revolution somehow occurs very quickly before IRGC can regroup.
It would therefore likely seek to eliminate, rather than capture. And less focus on highest ranking figures and more on the mid level command.

Protesters in western Iran are seen with weapons. I remember seeing similar footage yesterday or the day before. Oddly, it's adjacent to Iraq's Baghdad. Reports that IRGC is bringing in Iraqi PMF units to deal with rioters would have me thinking that'd be the last place the protesters would get the upper hand on the IRGC, but ok.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2007892559184748796
 
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Big_Zucchini

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Internet access in Iran is rapidly deteriorating in the past few days. Sometimes it returns, but not for long. In past protests, internet was completely cut off the moment the IRGC started shooting protesters en masse.
 
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