Part 1 of 4: Pelosi to visit Taiwan on 2-3 Aug 2022
1. Americans, like Pelosi, think that all that matters is their domestic agenda. In reality, the 4 countries she visits have agency & will not take kindly of stupidity in int’l relations. IMO, the PLA is not going to attack aircraft or invade Taiwan over her visit in 2022.
2. Pelosi & Taiwan is trending but they fail to notice that Nancy Pelosi’s delegation, in her visit to Singapore & Malaysia, she also met with:
(a) Singapore’s expert on China, Teo Chee Hean; &
(b) Singapore’s next Prime Minister, Lawrence Wong.
3. After her meetings in Singapore on day 1 of her multi-country trip, Pelosi will have lunch with leaders in Malaysia on day 2 before flying to Taipei. After her overnight in Taipei, her delegation will visit both Korea and Japan.
4. On day 2, Nancy Pelosi’s upcoming visit to Taipei has become a totally unnecessary test of wills, with Taiwanese or American troops having to go on alert for long periods, as China demonstrates its resolve. Let me add my 3 counterpoints to the many strange takes on Pelosi’s visit to Singapore, Malaysia, Taiwan, Korea & Japan:
(a) Zero probability of war with China.
(b) Low probability of serious incident, with real risk of miscalculation.
(c) Low benefit of Pelosi’s visit for Taiwan.
5. The PLA wants to demonstrate resolve without creating a VICIOUS cycle of escalation. Given that the military exercises will be weeks long, this has the potential for miscalculation.