Japan, Koreas, China and Taiwan regional issues

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
Why would it cooperate? That would be contrary to its interests/well being.
It's unlikely the CCP will last forever. So a politician that believed in doing the best thing for their people might conclude that it was necessary to bring in reforms to avoid disaster. People like Hu Yaobang and Zhao Ziyang genuinely believed that political change was good for China. It would have been fascinating to see a China where Zhao Ziyang had defeated the hardliners and resolved the protests peacefully, but we'll never know what it would have been like for sure.

It's equally possible - probably more likely at this point - that the CCP would prefer China becoming more like North Korea instead of a multi-party democracy. But it isn't set in stone.
 
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STURM

Well-Known Member
Being like North Korea is a regressive move; one that is also bad for business. I would think that the CCP would like things to remain as they are; they still in power but the party moving with the times.
 

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
Being like North Korea is a regressive move
In some respect it's already happening.
  • Constant surveillance with facial recognition, not just in cities but in villages.
  • Monitoring people's health 24/7, which may soon extend to women's reproductive cycles to "encourage" them to have children and trying to stop them getting abortions.
  • Stopping people leaving their homes for "unnecessary activities" because someone in their building got Covid.
  • Controlling movement between cities and stopping people leaving China unless they "really have to".
  • The ever increasing limits on what the media and entertainment industries can produce.
  • Interfering with the economy because the CCP is worried about business owners getting too powerful.
  • Demanding businesses become self-sufficient rather than relying on imports (because if China relies on imports it can't have a free hand to bully its neighbours).
  • Random purges of sports and media personalities because they get too popular and take attention away from the CCP.
  • Pushing ethno-nationalism as a means of unifying the country.
  • Encouraging people including children to report their friends, family and neighbours for "anti-party" comments.
Even people who moved to China 5 years ago don't understand what they're seeing now. Go back to 2010 or earlier and China in 2022 looks like a different country or at best some dystopian future.

There's every chance that the CCP could respond to a crisis in the future by doubling-down on its current policies to become a more high-tech version of North Korea.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
In some respect it's already happening.
  • Constant surveillance with facial recognition, not just in cities but in villages.
  • Monitoring people's health 24/7, which may soon extend to women's reproductive cycles to "encourage" them to have children and trying to stop them getting abortions.
  • Stopping people leaving their homes for "unnecessary activities" because someone in their building got Covid.
  • Controlling movement between cities and stopping people leaving China unless they "really have to".
  • The ever increasing limits on what the media and entertainment industries can produce.
  • Interfering with the economy because the CCP is worried about business owners getting too powerful.
  • Demanding businesses become self-sufficient rather than relying on imports (because if China relies on imports it can't have a free hand to bully its neighbours).
  • Random purges of sports and media personalities because they get too popular and take attention away from the CCP.
  • Pushing ethno-nationalism as a means of unifying the country.
  • Encouraging people including children to report their friends, family and neighbours for "anti-party" comments.
Even people who moved to China 5 years ago don't understand what they're seeing now. Go back to 2010 or earlier and China in 2022 looks like a different country or at best some dystopian future.

There's every chance that the CCP could respond to a crisis in the future by doubling-down on its current policies to become a more high-tech version of North Korea.
The 20th Party Congress in November will tell us the future path of the CCP and PRC. It is where the factional war between Xi and the Zemin faction will run its course. There are rumours floating around at the moment of course and those have to be treated with a strong degree of caution. The one that Xi has a brain aneurism may have been planted in the western media by Zemin faction operatives as well as the one that he has cancer. Of interest is that Xi's red book has been pulled from publication and sale and is being destroyed. Cadres and people are being told to hand it back in for destruction. Apparently the book and the portrayal of Xi as a Mao like figure was done by the part of CCP propaganda Ministry that is run by the Zemin faction. As I understand it, the only person who can order the destruction of such a book would be Xi himself. For anyone else to do it would be politically very dangerous. Like I say we'll have to wait and see.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member

As the cliche goes ''there's always two side to every story''. Interesting comments on things from a Chinese perspective from a speaker who in the past was Deng Xiaoping's interpreter. Quite a bit of what he says can be challenged but he's right when he says China by virtue of being a major economy can't be excluded or sidelined. He also talks about the U.S. making various groupings/arrangements to counter China. Good points also raised by the American and Japanese speakers.

Have included this here as it includes China.


One has to wonder if the U.S. really has a long term holistic policy in place to deal with China or is it just reacting to events?

''In a major departure from the decades-long “strategic ambiguity” towards Taiwan, Biden has declared this week from Japan that the United States will in fact come to the island’s defense if attacked by China. But the White House has insisted there was “no change of policy”.

''And that wasn’t his first time. A few weeks ago, Biden advocated regime change in Russia, declaring in Poland that Russian President Vladimir Putin “cannot remain in power“, only for the White House to walk back his escalation, insisting there was no policy change. But Biden refused to retract his statement that expressed his “moral outrage”, and instead accused Putin of war crimes, genocide and trying to wipe out Ukraine.''

''All of which begs the question: Is this a case of Biden being Biden; loose-tongued and lacking in self-discipline, especially as a jet-lagged 79-year-old man speaking to a foreign audience? Or, has the US in fact adopted “strategic clarity” with regards to Beijing on Taiwan and committed to “regime change” in Moscow after Putin’s invasion of Ukraine? The difference cannot be overstated as the potential consequences of a global showdown could mean worldwide death and destruction.''

'''For long a Cold War liberal, who advocated standing up to the Soviet Union, Biden has largely transitioned into a liberal interventionist after the union’s collapse, advocating military interventions on behalf, or under the pretext of, humanitarian and democratic causes, especially when it suited him. For example, he voted against the Gulf War in 1991 for fear of a backlash, but then voted in favour of the 2003 Gulf War, which eventually caused even more of a backlash.

''But he seems to have since learned his lesson from the many US failures in the Middle East, changing his mind about deploying US troops to remake countries or change governments. And yet, instead of leaning inwards towards isolationism or retreat from the world, Biden is now aiming upwards. He aims to abandon the high-cost, low-yield types of military interventions like the ones in Iraq and Afghanistan in favour of lower-cost, higher-yield global containment – which delivers prestige abroad and popularity at home without sacrificing American blood and treasure in the world’s hot spots.'
'
 
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Gooey

Well-Known Member

As the cliche goes ''there's always two side to every story''. Interesting comments on things from a Chinese perspective from a speaker who in the past was Deng Xiaoping's interpreter.
...'
Thanks Sturm.

An interesting 'third way' from Aljazeer. I know their business model is to generate interest but the fence sitting neutrality from this news outlet and attempt at equating West/Quad as the same as CCP is a false comparison. IMHO. Perhaps you could make the case in the 00/10's but the evidence does not back that anymore. Just as in 1938 with fascists in Europe and Asia.

It was also interesting that, it was not mentioned about:
1. COVID
2. CCP sanctions against Australia, and
3. CCP human rights

Perhaps, there was not time.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Time is indeed a factor. If they wanted to include every single factor/issue which effects foreign relations and the geo political/strategic environment the talk would have lasted for hours. No there was no mention of sanctions on Australia but why would there have been? Emphasis was on China and the U.S. Including Australia and COVID into the discussion would have been a rabbit hole and would also have led to the need to include a host of other issues.

I don't see any element of fence ''sitting''; what I saw were interesting or provocative statements by the Chinese speaker which were refuted or clarified by the American and Japanese speakers. All 3 speakers were allocated slots to say what they wanted and were able to refute or clarify what they wanted.
 

koxinga

Well-Known Member
Quite a bit of what he says can be challenged but he's right when he says China by virtue of being a major economy can't be excluded or sidelined.
But what does being a major economy means?

The unspoken meaning is being able to define the rules of engagement. For example, the US rep pointed out that China requires JVs with foreign companies to allow CCP party cells to be formed and they feel it is a big no to them. China's point is, well, we make the rules for our own country and once we are big enough, even what you think are ridiculous rules become de jure.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
China's point is, well, we make the rules for our own country and once we are big enough, even what you think are ridiculous rules become de jure.
That China - like other powers in the past - makes its own rules to suit its interests is not a point of contention. The point remains that China is a major economic player; one that can't just be ignored or sidelined. This is the conundrum faced by many when it comes to dealing with China.
 

Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member

In a follow-up to the previous news, the State Department has further amended their website on Taiwan. They've confirmed that they do not support Taiwanese independence or any other unilateral attempts to change the status-quo. It also confirmed that the US:

“maintains our capacity to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of Taiwan.”

The State Department did not reinstate text that said Taiwan was part of China.

Possibly an attempt to compromise with the CCP regarding Taiwanese independence, but also more leaning towards Biden's repeated comments about defending Taiwan (in the absence of something like a UDI).


Also the US has finally started meaningful trade talks with Taiwan, which Sarah Bianchi says may progress faster than the IPEF talks. It may actually work out better for Taiwan not being included in IPEF.
 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Below is a partial translated extract of Taiwanese news report on illegal activities in Korea. I have provided a link to Taiwan's CNA source article in Chinese (that cites a Chosun Ilbo exclusive on the arrests in Korea).

“…South Korea's Chosun Ilbo exclusively reported this morning that part of the submarine construction technology held by South Korea's Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Corporation was leaked to Taiwan International Shipbuilding Corporation.

Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Corp. is responsible for the production of major submarines, including the first 3,000-ton submarine of the South Korean Navy, and has mastered military technology protected by South Korean law.

The report pointed out that a total of three people from the three companies involved in the case were handed over to prosecutors for investigation in March, and one of them was detained on suspicion of going abroad with this part of the submarine design and handing it over to a Taiwanese company.

According to the investigation by the prosecution, the persons involved originally signed contracts with Taiwanese companies to participate in the construction of submarines, with a total contract value of 150 billion won (about NT$3.52 billion). By sending these employees to Taiwan to participate in the project to transfer technology, the police have now applied to the court to seize the estimated 7.9 billion won obtained by leaking the technology.

According to South Korea’s Joongang Daily, the Gyeongnam Police Department said today that it has charged Mr. B, director of South Korean company A, who was suspected of leaking the blueprints of South Korea’s Changho-class submarine to Taiwan Ships (CSBC), on suspicion of violating the Foreign Trade Act and the Unlawful Competition Prevention Act. He was detained and transferred to the prosecution. The company representative C who absconded was wanted.

In addition, representatives D and E of the two shipbuilding material companies that assisted Company A in committing the crime, a total of 5 persons were sent to the prosecution for investigation on the same charges.

The report pointed out that D, a representative of company A's cooperative manufacturer, obtained two types of submarine design drawings via email, and was suspected of leaking the design drawings to Taiwanese ship employees using a mobile hard disk in June 2020. According to the current investigation, the design drawings include submarine oil-water separators and battery fixing devices.

Company A is suspected of exporting three types of submarine construction equipment worth 13 billion won to Taiwan around April 2020 without obtaining permission from the Defense Agency…

<snip>”

1. From the perspective of Korean prosecutors, the Taiwan International Shipbuilding Corporation is under suspicion of paying significant bribes (with 7.9 billion won seized) to get access to classified boat designs and is engaging in technology theft.

2. A blueprint for a Korean-made submarine was leaked to Taiwan, and five people involved were interviewed; and at least 10 people from Daewoo Shipbuilding changed jobs to Company A (a company in Korea), which is likely to be under the common control of directors or shadow directors in Taiwan.

3. Given the amount of money involved, this is possibly the work of a dedicated intelligence agency or two — in fact, this knowledge of Korean submarine shipbuilding capability could benefit more than Taiwan; Japan’s Defense Intelligence Agency, for example, would certainly be interested in Korean submarine developments.

4. In Japan:

(a) the Directorate for Signals Intelligence, (DFS), employs about 1,700 people and has at least six surveillance facilities that eavesdrop around the clock on phone calls, emails, and other communications. (The NSA, in comparison, has said it has a workforce of more than 30,000 and Britain’s signals intelligence agency claims more than 6,000 staff.) The communications collected at the spy facilities are sent back to analysts who work inside the C1 building, which has four underground floors and eight above ground.​
(b) DFS – known in Japanese as the “Denpa-Bu,” meaning “electromagnetic wave section” – currently has 11 different departments, each focused on a different subject, such as information analysis, public safety and security, and cryptography. However, the departments are kept separate from each other and there is limited communication between them. Each department in the C1 building has a different lock installed on the rooms it uses, and these can only be accessed by a select group of people who have the appropriate security clearance, access codes, and identification.​
(c) DFS operates as the largest arm of Japan’s Defense Intelligence Agency, which has other divisions focused on, for example, analyzing satellite imagery, sources said.​
 
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Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member

Maybe not unsurprisingly, CSBC (the Taiwanese company building the submarines) has denied the story.

CSBC said the company has never purchased submarine components such as decanters and battery compartments from any South Korea suppliers. Moreover, the company added that its subsidiaries are able to develop highly efficient battery equipment.

The Taiwanese shipbuilder emphasized that submarines built under the indigenous submarine program were designed in their entirety by the company and that the Chosunilbo report is without foundation.
Either way I wouldn't be surprised if little came out of this. Even if there was some unauthorised technology/part transfer, I expect the new Yoon government would want it dealt with quietly so as not to strain his new vision for a bolder ROK strategy more closely aligned with the US and Japan, which is going to be harder if there's a public bust-up over Taiwanese defence issues.
 

koxinga

Well-Known Member
I have some doubts whether the "blueprints" of the submarine was leaked. Subcontractors are unlikely to have sensitive blueprints to the entire submarine. They would have relevant sections (such as general layout, general structure, electrics) to facilitate installation, which nevertheless are customer confidential but not a deal breaker compared actual data about performance or specific mods.

However, the rest of the article such as specific components is definitely plausible. The reality is the IDS program is aided by a variety of sources/suppliers, all of them keeping a low profile for obvious reasons (China seeking to disrupt) and they would all expect CSBC to "burn" them once their participation are known.
 

koxinga

Well-Known Member
It has been repeated before but here is another account of the lack of seriousness which the Taiwanese are treating their compulsory military service.

I will not quote the article here due to copyright issues but it squares with other personal accounts which describes the quality of the training to be abysmal and of little military utility.

 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
There are reports that former PM Abe collapsed because he was shot. Sadly I can't read and understand Japanese, so I’ve to find out somewhere else if its true.



Edited:
Seems to be true.

 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
This is rather shocking since gun ownership very rare and difficult in Japan. Moreover Abe eventough being considered hard right wing, however as far as I know the Left Wing radicals are diminishing in Japan.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
This is rather shocking since gun ownership very rare and difficult in Japan. Moreover Abe eventough being considered hard right wing, however as far as I know the Left Wing radicals are diminishing in Japan.
From initial reports, the murder weapon is a double action shotgun & this video captures the moment of shooting — the Japanese police were incredibly brave in tacking this lone gun man on a street.

There are others who suggest it’s an improvised weapon made from metal pipes — it’s not very clear from initial reports, what was used as the murder weapon.
 
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koxinga

Well-Known Member
From initial reports, the murder weapon is a double action shotgun & this video captures the moment of shooting — the Japanese police were incredibly brave in tacking this lone gun man on a street.

There are others who suggest it’s an improvised weapon made from metal pipes — it’s not very clear from initial reports, what was used as the murder weapon.
Improvised weapon, two tubes wrappped in black tape. I saw the video on NHK and have passing understanding of Japanese. SP really screwed up here.
 
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ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro

Arji

Active Member
Talks online says the suspect is a local, Japanese man, Former Self Defense Force soldier. If you saw the video of the shooting, he may have been using DIY blackpowder seeing how much smoke after the shot.
 
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