Indonesian Aero News

Ahmad

Active Member
It depends on Bappenas and Finance Ministry to approve Defense Minister proposal to get loan for military equipment acquisition. We will see but I rather estimate and hope that large portion of it will be rejected, particularly for loan which is intended to acquire imported weapon. That large amount of order that is given to Pindad is also still in LOI phase, not yet a contract. Navy also needs at least 2 frigates, 2 OPV, and 3 submarines which is for this current situation will likely get credit line since those programs are tightly linked with our own defense industry.

Defense ministry rather try to increase salary and maintenance budget and plan to extend the life of weapon which according to Alman Helvast it includes planes like Hawk 200/100 that is supposed to be replaced by new F 16 block 70. I dont doubt his tweet since it is also inline with previous Prabowo statement. For Navy though they have already tried to do upgrade on current warships and even want to make old ships like Van Speijk undergo upgrade as well, which means Van Speijk will likely to get retrofit if the assessment result show possibility to do so. This policy will suck up large portion of defense ministry budget. We can see without enough credit line there will be no significant acquisition like what we all saw on previous defense ministry performance.

Not mentioning Megawati latest statement about focusing acquisition on Navy and ordering about 10 warships from PAL. I can say according to my analysis that the only possibility for fighter acquisition is to buy Thyphoon due to its quick delivery time and cheap price beside all F 5 planes that are intended to be replaced have already been grounded several years ago.

If we cannot get F 35 so better wait for KFX/IFX, why is so obsessed with F 16 V by the way....??? When we can possibly have 48 KFX/IFX block 1, it means it is natural to see the next acquisition is to get KFX/IFX block 2.

Our relationship with both US and Chinese are great by the way. Our rejection to US request recently to get permanent refueling facility in the country has been appreciated by Chinese publicly through their government media mouthpiece, Global Times. Not to mention their current conflict with India will make them want to get more friends in Indo Pacific region.

As I said several times, no need to be rush and think strategically with long term perspective. Our acquisition must be tied to our defense industry long term development and why not doing it by the way if current threat allow us to do so ???

Many of important infrastructure projects like Sumatra highway (toll road) is also still getting financial difficulty, better the loan is used to finance this important project. We are currently in competition with both Vietnam and China economically, not only in term of getting FDI but also to balance our trade with them so we have to rush in making our economy competitive enough. The reason of China military development is also due to its fast economic growth for 2 decades, so economy has direct linked to our defense as well. We dont have chance to balance China power in SCS in the long term if we dont have adequate economic power.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
we cannot get F 35 so better wait for KFX/IFX, why is so obsessed with F 16 V by the way....??? When we can have 48 KFX/IFX block 1, it means it is natural to see the next acquisition is to get KFX/IFX block 2.
And why are you obsessed with KFX/IFX when there's still no guarantee Indonesia still in the program ? F-16V is the type of Fighter that TNI-AU already put officially in Media and submitted during Parliamentary hearing. It's not obsessed unless you want to ask why TNI-AU as users prefer that.

We can get 48 F-16V, 48 Refurbished F-16 ex USAF, 48 Rafale, or even 48 Eurofighters. Some of them can be newly built, some of them can be second hand refurbished ones.
All of that is up to how much the budget (including Loan) being approved, and it's more realistic at this moment to be procured within few years since those are already existing Fighters.

Thus it's more realistic than 48 KFX/IFX which is still non existing Fighters and more importantly still no guarantee that Indonesia will still participate on the program.
Even if Indonesia still somehow in the program, getting 48 IFX will mostly can be done after 2030. Which at time, if US open for F-35 (for example) procurement to Indonesia, it could be a better venues to pursue.


relationship with both US and Chinese are great by the way. Our rejection to US request recently to get permanent refueling facility in the country has been appreciated by Chinese publicly through their
Well, The Chinese also stating their displeasure to US Foreign Secretary visit, which even our Parliament basically saying to the Chinese; ' It's our own business, and not yours'.
We also rejected their proposal for getting some 'harbour' time...So we basically saying no to US and China.

However Chinese Naval and Coast Guard ships that encroaching our EEZ, not US.
So you can figure it up by yourself in Defense, where our cooperation will be closer.
 

Ahmad

Active Member
And why are you obsessed with KFX/IFX when there's still no guarantee Indonesia still in the program ? F-16V is the type of Fighter that TNI-AU already put officially in Media and submitted during Parliamentary hearing. It's not obsessed unless you want to ask why TNI-AU as users prefer that.


Even if Indonesia still somehow in the program, getting 48 IFX will mostly can be done after 2030. Which at time, if US open for F-35 (for example) procurement to Indonesia, it could be a better venues to pursue.
Why do you and other Indonesian members who like to buy F 16 V and other US weapons always say KFX/IFX program can only reach its mass production phase after 2030 ??

As far as we know Korean has said that the mass production is planned to commence in 2026 and so far the program progress is still on schedule and even there is possibility to launch the first prototype faster than the previous plan (middle 2021).
 
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Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Why do you and other Indonesian members who like to buy F 16 V and other US weapons always say KFX/IFX program can only reach its mass production phase after 2030 ??

As far as we know Korean has said that the mass production is planned to commence in 2026 and so far the program progress is still on schedule and even there is possibility to launch the first prototype faster than the previous plan (middle 2021).
According to KAI:
"KF-X will be completed by the first half year of 2021 and the first flight test is scheduled to be done in 2022. By 2026, system development is ended."
Source: KAI KOREA AEROSPACE INDUSTRIES, LTD.

Looking to other 5th generation fighter programs, expecting operational status around 2030 is quite realistic. On top of that we have this worldwide Covid-19 situation.

So yes, it will take many years until we get the first F-16V after the contract is signed, but it will be for sure before 2026. Livery of the other candidates like the EF2000 and Rafale will be maybe even faster.
 

Ahmad

Active Member
According to KAI:
"KF-X will be completed by the first half year of 2021 and the first flight test is scheduled to be done in 2022. By 2026, system development is ended."
Source: KAI KOREA AEROSPACE INDUSTRIES, LTD.

Looking to other 5th generation fighter programs, expecting operational status around 2030 is quite realistic. On top of that we have this worldwide Covid-19 situation.

So yes, it will take many years until we get the first F-16V after the contract is signed, but it will be for sure before 2026. Livery of the other candidates like the EF2000 and Rafale will be maybe even faster.
The Covid 19 pandemic has been proven so far not effecting KFX/IFX program progress speed. F 16 V acquisition plan was stated by previous Air Force commander and it is intended for replacing Hawk 100/200 and if the rumor to upgrade and retrofit Hawk 100/200 is true it means there is no reason to buy F 16 V.

After the development is ended they will surely start mass production. It is still a business project any way, they need to make money as soon as possible. 2026 as the beginning of mass production phase (according to the plan) is widely known for any one following the program intensively like I do. First batch of KFX/IFX will be produced between 2026-2028 (base on plan) and PTDI I believe can also start doing manufacturing at that time to produce IFX. KAI’s first KF-X prototype scheduled for April 2021, test flight in 2022

KFX/IFX program cannot be compared to another 5 generation program since many KFX/IFX components are outsourced from readily available components produced by either US or Western companies. Not to mention LM supervision and TOT that can make the program save much time while the basic design itself is following F22 proven design. AESA development progress is also so far quite satisfying.

Any way, being late one, two or three years are not really a big problem if we are going to give our defense industry more sales and save KFX/IFX program since financial problem is the main reason Indonesia gov wants to renegotiate the program. Delaying new figter acquisition will give more budget space to be given for KFX/IFX program and the money provided to buy F 16 V can be later diverted to buy IFX. We are also not in a war like situation by the way. This is why we have to capitalize the situation by benefiting our own defense industry and to some extend our own economy.
 
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Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
It will be nice if the KFX-program will go smoothly as you predicts, but the problem is like Ananda already stated, not how the program goes, but if Indonesia will still participate in this project.

Its very obvious that this current administration dislikes every SBY-project, even while the MEF-plans are well planned, this administration tries to end most SBY-era planned projects as much as possible. There are actually enough funds for participating with the KFX-program AND a squadron of F-5 replacement, its just how the policitians want to spend the budget.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
After the development is ended they will surely start mass production. It is still a business project any way, they need to make money as soon as possible. 2026 as the beginning of mass production phase (according to the plan) is widely known for any one following the program intensively like I do. First batch of KFX/IFX will be produced between 2026-2028 (base on plan) and PTDI I believe can also start doing manufacturing at that time to produce IFX. KAI’s first KF-X prototype scheduled for April 2021, test flight in 2022

KFX/IFX program cannot be compared to another 5 generation program since many KFX/IFX components are outsourced from readily available components produced by either US or Western companies. Not to mention LM supervision and TOT that can make the program save much time while the basic design itself is following F22 proven design. AESA development progress is also so far quite satisfying
Why can't be compared ? Yes KFX will be using much off the shelf technology. However there's also many system build by Korean vendors that are unproven yet. There will be much effort in the intergration.
This is KAI we are talking about, their experience in Fighter development is licensing F-16 and building FA-50. Even established players like LM, Sukhoi, Eurofighters consortium, Dasault, and SAAB, all of them are not can be said enter mass production within the initial time frame.

You are very optimistic on 2026 time frame, and even if you see Korean Forums most of them are not optimistic that after 2026 they can go with mass production.
After 2026 even somehow they are within time frame, they're going to begin initial Production run. This will take at least 2-3 years for small batch Production outside prototype. That's the practise and procedures that every other established Fighters manufacturer doing. Thus if it's also can be done without a hitch, then after initial production they can begin Mass Production.

That's why even big Korean defense Media/Forum like Bemil Chosun, mostly only think mass production can only be attain 2030+ at the most optimistic scenario. This with everything moving on schedule (which based on what happens from other more established players projects, they rarely do).

That's why TNI-AU and MinDef don't calculate KFX/IFX on the equation of Fighter procurement for this decade. Off course the other reason is again still no Guarantee Indonesia will still be in the program.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
LM before already implied that chances for Indonesia getting F-35 must wait until at least 2030. This's practically repeat what LM already mentioned that TNI-AU must build it's capacities first with Gen 4.5 Fighters and supporting tech, before move to Gen 5.
Seems Democrats will regain the White House afterall. Thus I don't know what will be with this offer from Republican White House. Could be followed or not. Perhaps this's one of the reasons why Indonesian MinDef still don't want to commit anything on US offer yet.

They need to see how new Democrats administration will behave to Indonesia. Just precaution, afterall Indonesian administration historically must have been learning on cautious with Democrats in White House.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Seems Democrats will regain the White House afterall. Thus I don't know what will be with this offer from Republican White House. Could be followed or not. Perhaps this's one of the reasons why Indonesian MinDef still don't want to commit anything on US offer yet.

They need to see how new Democrats administration will behave to Indonesia. Just precaution, afterall Indonesian administration historically must have been learning on cautious with Democrats in White House.
Yes. So there are actually two important factors which will influence the fighter procurement programs.

1. The american presidential election.
2. The Indonesian participation of the KFX-project.

1. There is actually not a real reason for both Democrats or Republicans to refuse to sell the F-16 to Indonesia.
2. This is all up to the administration (Luhut, Megawati and her PDI-P gang).
 

Ahmad

Active Member
PTDI has started showing the inside (interior) of N 219. For foreign market, I can see African countries are the most potential. Some of sales will likely come from our own region, particularly maritime countries like Malaysia and Philippine. PTDI is also trying to use TAI from Turkey to enter European market, although I think for European it may only possible for cargo planes market.

For the starting of mass production, current contract of 4 planes from Aceh government is enough. Next order will likely come from state owned carter company like Pelita Air in which this company has already made LOI to buy good amount of N 219 (I forget about the number, but if I am not mistaken it will be about 20-30 some thing).

I dont know about Pelita Air current financial condition, but I think this company is less impacted compared to big airlines like Garuda Indonesia and Lion Air from the pandemic effect.

 
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Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Looks stylish and comfortable enough for <1000 km flights, but a fat passenger needs two seats!
I really hope the certification process will be finished soon. It was actually planned for end last year, but it seems that it will become next year.

I am afraid that the production will be as slow as the development.
 

Ahmad

Active Member
Looks stylish and comfortable enough for <1000 km flights, but a fat passenger needs two seats!
I really hope the certification process will be finished soon. It was actually planned for end last year, but it seems that it will become next year.

I am afraid that the production will be as slow as the development.
The fat ones should get the single seats prepared in the left side of the plane :p

Look like it will be completed this year, it is why the second flying prototype has already got the intended interior equipment. They look like only use the first prototype now to finish the remaining of the required flight test to get the certification while the second prototype will likely be used for promotional purposes and limited/non critical flight test.

Just saw the interview with the N219 flight test manager in YT channel about half or a month ago and he is quite optimist that the company can get the certification this year. According to him, the flight test will be continued after the certification because DI still want to develop the plane further. I think it will be similar with other planes like CN 235 and NC 212 where they are still being developed despite first development phase has been ended.

Definately the production will still quite slow since the production facility for N 219 is still very limited. They have planed to invest for bigger production facility that includes automation as well but we havent seen any meaningful development on the financing side. There is possibility that government will finance the facility if we see how large government economic stimulus is, some trillions Rupiah will be like peanuts compared to that gigantic stimulus budget. I think gov will likely to be less sensitive as well in term of spending money for some expensive high tech program that possibly include KFX/IFX program.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

I've seen this article for a few days. Also the Indonesian Forums and Media also already full speculation on this.
The speculation not only with US offer for twin engine alternative to F-16V or Su-35, but also Speculation that if Trump goes, will US still adamant to enforce CAATSA?

If that happen, if US under Biden wafer on CAATSA, could that make the Political Factions in Indonesia that supports Su-35 embolden to push Su-35 again?

One thing for sure, as the article put and I also has mentioned in some of my previous Posts. Any defense procurement with US not only related toward TNI logistics, and Indonesian Geopolitical situation, but also related toward overall US - Indonesia trade balance.
US still and continue will be a very important market for Indonesian Export, and it's far outstrip Russia economics importance toward Indonesia.

Even if somehow Biden will give Indonesia 'opportunity' to acquire Su-35 (as part of his loosen political approach to Putin), Indonesia still need to balance it with bigger procurement on US assets. Something in my opinion is not really worth only for a squadron of Su-35.

Anyway, I'm bit doubtful that Biden will wafering from CAATSA. After all some of the Democrats so far shown more hostility toward Putin than even Trump bravado.
 
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Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member

Even if somehow Biden will give Indonesia 'opportunity' to acquire Su-35 (as part of his loosen political approach to Putin), Indonesia still need to balance it with bigger procurement on US assets. Something in my opinion is not really worth only for a squadron of Su-35.

Anyway, I'm bit doubtful that Biden will wafering from CAATSA. After all some of the Democrats so far shown more hostility toward Putin than even Trump bravado.
I dont see the point/a good reason, to move away from the F-16 for the F-18. Looking to the performance, the F-18C/C is not better than the F-16C/D, even the F-18E/F is not much an improvement, just slightly more weaponload. Its just more expensive in maintenance.

But if the US allows Indonesia to order a squadron of Su-35, on the condition that Indonesia also orders two squadrons of F-16s (or 1 squadron of F-16 and one of C-130J), i dont see a problem in that. After all we need those aircrafts.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
This talk on Shornet as alternative offer it's more on speculation. After all Su-35 being put as diversification strategy to F-16V. The idea is to have one US type and one Non US type, not having two type of US Fighters.

The idea of procurement of 2 sq of F-16V and 1 sq of Su-35 in fact already being rumours are part of negotiations. This due to some insistence on Russophile in defense committee and in MinDef. US insistence on CAATSA that finally tone them down.
That's why I just keep wondering if those Russophile factions will revive their Su-35 drive, if they see potential US wafering on CAATSA with new administration.
 

Ahmad

Active Member
N 219 prototypes have already reached 420 flying hours (both planes).

More on JP
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PT DI aims to obtain N219 type certification by end 2020
Arya Dipa

The Jakarta Post

Bandung / Wed, November 11, 2020 / 07:12 pm


State-owned aircraft manufacturer PT Dirgantara Indonesia (PT DI) and the National Institute of Aeronautics and Space (Lapan) is aiming to obtain a type certificate for the N219 by the year end after the aircraft completes a variety of of airworthiness tests. The N219 made its maiden flight on Aug. 16, 2017 and was named “Nurtanio”by President Joko Widodo on Nov. 10, 2017.

A type certificate indicates the airworthiness of an aircraft type and model, and is issued by the Airworthiness and Aircraft Operation Directorate, which falls under the Civil Aviation Directorate General at the Transportation Ministry. PT DI manufactured two prototypes of the N219 to expedite its certification. “We can optimize the flight tests [for the N219] because we are not relying on just one aircraft [prototype]. We can probably obtain the type certificate [for N219] by th...


 
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Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
(deleted)
Let me guess... you wanted to post this quote
"Japan may still be V-22 only foreign operator for the foreseeable future in the world. It's less likely another nation which has expressed interest on MV-22 will be the next foreign operator of this tiltrotor aircraft. The pricing issue expected will hinder MV-22 acquisition."
originally posted by that guy on Twitter ?
:-D


Just want to share this photo, taken from the Twitter account of TNI-AU.
 

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Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
That guy just twitt that Indonesia stay with KFX program. Well he's more certain on that then MinDef it self ;)
The problem is that he has the obsessive urge to post daily something. Because of that his posts are normally below Defencetalk-level.

He never share links or other references, so its hard to directly check his statements, claims and predictions. And thats why some people still believe him and why he is worshipped as an oracle by his fans.
 
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