Indonesian Aero News

[Ananda]

After Sumatra Disaster, Prabowo's told in media that his administrations will bring 200 additional helicopters. He seems indicate that this 200 helicopters will be operate by Multiple agencies.

The result shown hodgepodge helicopter procurement to get as many helicopters in shortest time. From new build, second hand and lease. The picture above seems lease choices that Bureau of Natural Disaster (BNPB) done, from Aussie operator using ex US Army Blackhawk. From what I gather, BNPB so far seems shown using more Wet Lease then Dry Lease. This as seems they want to minimise maintenance costs.

 

[Ananda]

PTDI-News-PTDI-Scytalys Sepakati Kerja Sama Mission System untuk N219 MPA

Jakarta [...]

www.indonesian-aerospace.com

This is already a year now, but so far no new development info on the progress. Later on DI also sign agreement for N219 MSA for Bakamla (Coast Guard), using similar system integration they are developing with Scytalys.

Supposedly to replace this:

And augment CN235 MPA and NC212 MSA.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

PTDI-News-PTDI-Scytalys Sepakati Kerja Sama Mission System untuk N219 MPA

Jakarta [...]

www.indonesian-aerospace.com

This is already a year now, but so far no new development info on the progress. Later on DI also sign agreement for N219 MSA for Bakamla (Coast Guard), using similar system integration they are developing with Scytalys.

Supposedly to replace this:
View attachment 54908
And augment CN235 MPA and NC212 MSA.

I already give up about the N219, first flight was in 2017, in 2024 IPTN announced that the N219 was already in production, but they planned for finishing certification in 2027. What kind of planning and management is this? The DHC-6 was 20 years out of production (1988-2018), in 2017 it was three years before the Cessna 408 had its first flight. The N219 could have a great future, but now in 2026, not a single aircraft is in production.

Pesawat N219 Sudah Masuki Tahap Produksi, Target Perdana untuk Versi Amphibi

For many years, maybe for more than two decades, the N22 needs to be replaced. The airforce needs a twin engine trainer, instead of the Pilatus PC-24. Well, who knows, maybe before 2045, production of the N219 eventually starts, or maybe the design is obsolete and a redesign is necessary, or the whole program is cancelled.

 

[Ananda]

maybe the design is obsolete and a redesign is necessary, or the whole program is cancelled.

I don't think it will be cancelled, the Investment already being made. However it will be push back more. They just tender the building for Final Assembly Line (FAL) facility last year. Nothing that being heard on the FAL readiness that I know off. If they can get first N219 for TNI-AD by 2027 is already good enough, eventough it is couple years late from previous time table according contract in 2023.

DI is one of least performing SOE MIC. So yes, it will be late, and question for how long.

 

[Ananda]

https://x.com/i/status/2061398838280134713

It's a while since I was on here. But always got time to discuss #Chengdu J-10CEs! I'm being reliably informed by Indonesian #TNIAU sources that the number of J-10CEs on order has increased from 12 to 24, and not surprisingly the very long range PL-15E is being acquired too.

Allan Warnes in his X talk about Indonesia TNI-AU order. The rumours of J-10 as mentioned in this thread, already circulating for sometime. However base on availability of financing, fiscal forex availability, and some rumours from finance guys, I try to see the chances of several fighters lobby project:

1. Additional Rafale (6-24 pc), potential relatively high due to infrastructure availability already being build due to present 42 order (6 already inducted). Political support also high, as this is Prabowo's preference,
2. F-15EX (24 pc), potential low as Indonesia already make deal with US Trump on getting more Boeing Commercial. Also with current USD rate to IDR, the finance guys are avoiding morw USD financing.
3. Su-35 (5 pc), as Su-27SM replacement. I put this as low to moderate. They got political backing from some factions. However finance guys from what I gather has not seen possible competitive credit financing. Russia FI is questionable, and Chinese ones seems more possible to finance their own defense export. This days it is can be more important then political backing.
4. KAAN (32-48 pc), despite all the high talk and "contract", I have to put it low to moderate can be execute soon. Engine availability, Credit Financing difficulties going to be hard to make it executable before this decade end. Turkiye FI is not strong enough to provide Financing. Thus they have to relies on Gulf FI Financing. With KAAN projects still need to be develop further, it is too much 'if' for any Gulf FI to commit yet from what I gather.
5. KF-21 (16-48 pc), got somewhat increasing political backup, however it is facing potential cost overun and credit financing difficulties. ROK/KAI so far has not been able to find non ROK FI providing financing facilities. Thus must relies on their own FI.Yes they have better credit availabilities then say Turkiye and Russia. However also not in same league as Euro, Gulf or Chinese FI. So if they can sort this out, then the potential can increase from Moderate to High.
6. J-10B/CE (12-32 pc), personally I used to think this as low to moderate. Now seems increasingly can be high due to Chinese Financing scheme and political factions that want to have non western fighters.

Thus potential from all 6 candidate that being rumours for some time, so far can be reduce to Rafale, J-10B/CE and KF-21. This again shown chaotic Indonesia procurement lobby, still in the end can reduce to more manageable due to fiscal realities and competitive financing scheme.

 

[ComradeVortex]

Su-35 (5 pc), as Su-27SM replacement. I put this as low to moderate. They got political backing from some factions. However finance guys from what I gather has not seen possible competitive credit financing. Russia FI is questionable, and Chinese ones seems more possible to finance their own defense export. This days it is can be more important then political backing.

UAC Engineer said that a deal for only 5 Su-35s is unlikely,we have to order more if we want Su-35.

 

[Ananda]

UAC Engineer said that a deal for only 5 Su-35s is unlikely,we have to order more if we want Su-35.

Personaly I always doubt large defense item procurement from Russia. Simply because the availability of competitive credit financing. Even before CAATSA, Russia has difficulties provide competitive credit financing. Remember the previous Su-35 contract has to use counter trade deal as compensation no credit financing.

This time around from what I heard, the Russia Sales Agent are offering various scheme to compensate non existance USD/Euro financing. From using Yuan-IDR Financing, to counter trade scheme again. All from I gather not satisfactory solution from Finance Guys perspective.

Still the Pro Russian Defense procurement lobby manage to become contender on procurement for 5 Su-35 as Su-27 replacement. Also they lobbt some upgrade program to make all Su-30 toward MK2 standard. Still if Russia does not want to take that deal due to small population, then it will be harder to find other scheme to finance Su-35.

For that I suspect why J-10 coming into equation. As Russia sales agent in here are come from similar camp with Chinese sales agent, and being support by similar political factions. I do still suspect it is going to use J-10B but with avionics and sensors upgrade to CE standard. PLAF not want to use J-10B as it use Russian AL-31 instead their own WS-10.