Indonesian Aero News

[Ananda]

Who is this Alan Warnes btw?

Last time I check, he is a Journos specialise on aero industry information. I believe 36 is the # currently still in open discussion. This is part of 2nd and 3rd batch. Remember the first 6 (1st batch) already an effective contract with delivery schedule.

actually quite sure that countries like India or Taiwan are willing to add 12 late variant Mirage 2000s to their fleet.

I suspect more likely private contractors specialise on providing 'adversarial' traning sparing fleet. Afterall those business getting more and more traction on providing adversarials training services.

Add:

Prabowo soal Bertemu Jokowi di Istana: Itu Pertemuan Konfidensial

Menhan Prabowo Subianto melakukan pertemuan dengan Presiden Jokowi di Istana Kepresidenan, Jakarta Pusat (Jakpus). Lantas, apa yang dibahas keduanya?

news.detik.com

Jokowi and Prabowo has meeting yesterday and also being involved nation CFO Sri Mulyani. Many speculate on Political bargaining as talk on Jokowi reshuffle cabinet members got louder.

However it is also possible since CFO also involved on setting final procurement budget for the rest of this term. Perhaps they decide, all right F-15EX just too much, lets drop it and move to additional F-16 or Rafale (well this one is my wish speculation ).

Honestly getting F-15EX under current Indonesian operational budget just more potential on reducing operational readiness. Well I just talk as finance people that see the historical availability of defense operational budget.

 

[r0m8470]

The AF should 'give up' the Flankers, donate them to Ukraine in exchange for something else .... like F15EX, or more F16V or more EDA F16 to Viper standard. Will current US administration bite on something like that ... ?

 

[Ananda]

Indonesia basically sitting in the fence on this war. Considering MinDef already ask for budget (and seems finance people going to approve) for upgrading those Flankers, they will not do something that going to jeopardize Russian relationship. There's talk on Pertamina access some gasoline from overseas refineries (potentially India) that actually coming from Russian crude. Something that several Asians already done it also due to lower prices. Asian market in future seems will take more Russian Hydrocarbon, reducing the need competing with EU on prices for middle east Hydrocarbons.

So there's not much incentives to cross the fences on this war. Thus if they decide to get rid off the Flankers, it is more likely to sell it to parties that Russia agreed on. Potentially like Vietnam. Still as they set to upgrade those Flankers, just like the Hawk 200/100 more likely it will be kept operational until end of decade even early next ones.

As for US administration? considering they are now scratching market for Fulcrum and Flankers, they seems potentially can work out on that. However even Malaysia not going to sell to US for their Mig 29 (which is now in reserve), Indonesia will less likely to do that for their operational Flankers.

 

[TayJG]

The AF should 'give up' the Flankers, donate them to Ukraine in exchange for something else .... like F15EX, or more F16V or more EDA F16 to Viper standard. Will current US administration bite on something like that ... ?

All I know is that if I was Ukraine and I got some obsolete decaying Flankers with no AESA, while some other country got F-16 Viper to replace the donated Flankers, I would be pissed. That would be a scam on everyone.

 

[Meriv90]

All I know is that if I was Ukraine and I got some obsolete decaying Flankers with no AESA, while some other country got F-16 Viper to replace the donated Flankers, I would be pissed. That would be a scam on everyone.

But since you dont have trained people for F-16
You cant receive F-16 because of redlines from the russians
You are in great need.

It isnt a scam, it is a freaking miracle to receive those Flankers. Because it means your ally is losing more money(F-16) than what is receiving(Flankers) so that you can shoot down russians.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Why should we donate one of our best fighters to Ukraine or another country, and then paying enormous amounts of money for some F-15EX?
The best thing Indonesia can do is what it is doing now, upgrade the current fleet and keep the aircrafts flying as long as possible.

 

[TayJG]

But since you dont have trained people for F-16
You cant receive F-16 because of redlines from the russians
You are in great need.

It isnt a scam, it is a freaking miracle to receive those Flankers. Because it means your ally is losing more money(F-16) than what is receiving(Flankers) so that you can shoot down russians.

It seems like a real ripoff. Exactly which Flankers are you proposing anyway, the vintage Flankers of the Su-30MK2? I wouldn't take either one. I would rather have no planes at all than to accept that, and take a different kind of equipment.

Vintage Flankers are worthless and Su-30MK2 is not much to cheer for. It's probably inferior to Su-35S.

I would wait the time to train up Ukrainian pilots on F-16V.

Are you saying that Indonesia's Flankers are worth more than F-16V?

 

[TayJG]

Why should we donate one of our best fighters to Ukraine or another country, and then paying enormous amounts of money for some F-15EX?
The best thing Indonesia can do is what it is doing now, upgrade the current fleet and keep the aircrafts flying as long as possible.

F-16V is not one of our best fighters. The US' best fighters are F-22 and F-35. I'd bet on the F-15EX over F-16V as well.

In any case, obviously we would give Ukraine F-16V so that they are not conquered by Russia. Russian Empire trying to re-constitute itself by conquest is probably a bad thing, dunno just guessing.

 

[Meriv90]

So your countryman are diying on the front, you are risking to dissapear like a country, dismembered, and you worry about the quality of the deal?

You think that the US or allies can give Ukraine advanced weapons like the F-16? And the Ukrainians have time to wait for the pilots to train on them, to train the logistic chain etc.. etc..?

Flankers arent worth more than F-16V thats obvious, but it is also obvious that right now for Ukrainians there arent other alternatives to vintage soviet fighters.

 

[Meriv90]

In any case, obviously we would give Ukraine F-16V so that they are not conquered by Russia. Russian Empire trying to re-constitute itself by conquest is probably a bad thing, dunno just guessing.

You do realize you are talking about a nuclear armed country no? And some redlines are hard to cross without consequences.

 

[swerve]

All I know is that if I was Ukraine and I got some obsolete decaying Flankers with no AESA, while some other country got F-16 Viper to replace the donated Flankers, I would be pissed. That would be a scam on everyone.

Ukraine is fighting a war for its existence - right now. It needs whatever it can get, as soon as possible. F-16V in a few years won't help it win the current war. Flankers which it has the trained ground crew to maintain, pilots to fly, & integrated weapons to fire from, would be infinitely more useful.

A starving man doesn't want gourmet food next year. He needs anything which will give him nutrition, immediately. The best food imaginable is no use after he's starved to death.

 

[TayJG]

So your countryman are diying on the front, you are risking to dissapear like a country, dismembered, and you worry about the quality of the deal?

You think that the US or allies can give Ukraine advanced weapons like the F-16? And the Ukrainians have time to wait for the pilots to train on them, to train the logistic chain etc.. etc..?

Flankers arent worth more than F-16V thats obvious, but it is also obvious that right now for Ukrainians there arent other alternatives to vintage soviet fighters.

The quality of the deal affects dying on the front and disappearing as a country. Are you trying to take advantage of these things in order for your country to profit at Ukraine's expense?

lol So you really DO want Ukraine to take vintage Flankers, and Indonesia gets compensated for this with $66 million dollar F-16 Vipers.

That is the worst idea I have heard in a very long time. Vintage Flankers are practically worthless against Russia. They are completely outranged by Su-35S. You'd have to think hard to come up with a situation where Su-27's have value for Ukraine.

You do realize you are talking about a nuclear armed country no? And some redlines are hard to cross without consequences.

Do you? The world seems to be doing just fine preventing the resurrection of the Russian Empire. I suspect it will continue this way, it has for at least 40+ years.

 

[TayJG]

Ukraine is fighting a war for its existence - right now. It needs whatever it can get, as soon as possible. F-16V in a few years won't help it win the current war. Flankers which it has the trained ground crew to maintain, pilots to fly, & integrated weapons to fire from, would be infinitely more useful.

A starving man doesn't want gourmet food next year. He needs anything which will give him nutrition, immediately. The best food imaginable is no use after he's starved to death.

F-16V in a few years seems like a really bad argument. Please show me evidence that it takes experienced and trained Mig-29/Su-27 pilots years to learn to fly a F-16V.

This is not feeding a starving man, this is feeding a conman who wants to get rich off the attempt to feed the starving man.

There are definitely better solutions than F-16V's for Su-27's. (1) Training the Ukrainians to fly F-16V, (2) more air defense, (3) more artillery, (4) more tanks.

 

[tonnyc]

Why should we donate one of our best fighters to Ukraine or another country, and then paying enormous amounts of money for some F-15EX?
The best thing Indonesia can do is what it is doing now, upgrade the current fleet and keep the aircrafts flying as long as possible.

There are good reasons for getting rid of the Flankers. Basically they're old and are now hangar queens and their readiness is very low. Not saying that they should be handed over to Ukraine. Heck, I suspect at the current condition not even Ukraine wants our Flankers (they will want something operational, not hangar queens).

You aren't wrong about upgrading them and keeping them flying as long as possible. It's just that they are reaching the end of what is possible. Have you noticed that the traditional flyby during Independence Day and Armed Forces Day were done with F-16 with no Flankers in sight?

 

[swerve]

F-16V in a few years seems like a really bad argument. Please show me evidence that it takes experienced and trained Mig-29/Su-27 pilots years to learn to fly a F-16V.

This is not feeding a starving man, this is feeding a conman who wants to get rich off the attempt to feed the starving man.

There are definitely better solutions than F-16V's for Su-27's. (1) Training the Ukrainians to fly F-16V, (2) more air defense, (3) more artillery, (4) more tanks.

F-16Vs need to be built. They aren't kept in stock ready to supply to whoever wants them as soon as they ask. That would take time.

As I said, & you ignored, Ukraine already has pilots who can fly Su-27s & ground crew who can maintain them. It does not have either for any type of F-16. Su-27 & MiG-29 can be operated by Ukraine almost immediately. F-16 would need training & establishment of a logistical base.

Yes, Ukraine needs other things. But nobody is suggesting ex-Soviet fighters as an alternative to any of these things. They're in addition.

 

[TayJG]

F-16Vs need to be built. They aren't kept in stock ready to supply to whoever wants them as soon as they ask. That would take time.

As I said, & you ignored, Ukraine already has pilots who can fly Su-27s & ground crew who can maintain them. It does not have either for any type of F-16. Su-27 & MiG-29 can be operated by Ukraine almost immediately. F-16 would need training & establishment of a logistical base.

Yes, Ukraine needs other things. But nobody is suggesting ex-Soviet fighters as an alternative to any of these things. They're in addition.

If you're going to get nasty, you should try to find a better pretext than a lie. I already knew Ukraine had trained Mig-29/Su-27 pilots, I actually asked you about the very thing you said I ignored you on.

With regards to your second point I think that's misunderstanding what I said, I am deliberately saying what I would do instead of a bad deal regarding this Su-27 / F-16V thing. See the thing is: is that money is finite in the United States. It might seem infinite, but it's actually not. The US cannot simply afford to promise F-16V's ($66 million each) for cheap shit Su-27SKM's. That is enormously wasteful.

Not only is it wasteful in terms of paying out enormous sums for an aircraft that is worth just a fraction of the value, the Su-27's really have very little actual value. As I said, they would be crushed by Su-35's.

So given that money is finite, the money is spent far better on the other things I mentioned (air defense, artillery, tanks) rather than this arrangement.

@TayJG Dial back the attitude or you will be on a holiday from here. You do not speak to a very senior member, let alone a Moderator like that. So I very strongly suggest that you pull your head in and be polite to other members, especially those who have forgotten more than you'll ever know. You owe @swerve an apology and I expect to see one delivered.

Awarded 12 demerit points for 1 year. That's 18 demerit points I've dished out to you in the last hour.

Ngatimozart.

 

[TayJG]

@ngatimozart That's fine. I think you have demonstrated that there really are no rules on this forum, but that you will ban people who do not kowtow to moderators, that most certainly is something I won't be doing. I suppose you are some kind of toady to them, and you are unable to at least be more subtle in how you try to abuse your moderator privileges. For example, you say in the same sentence:

"Be polite to other members"
"Especially those who have forgotten more than you'll ever know"

So we can clearly see the hypocrisy there.

And we can see more of your politeness in another post: KAI KF-21

"You know very little an people here are trying to educate you."

A flat out ad hominem attack that was totally unprovoked. Anyone is free to look at that thread and see if there was any provocation for that insult. There is none.

So clearly you are a hypocrite and you are too big a fool to even try to be one more subtly. As far as knowledge is concerned I've seen you make two substantive posts, one post on the KF-21 thread where you literally repeated what had already been said and that I had supported with evidence and pretended you were informing me of something and this comment on China:

"Japan, Koreas, China and Taiwan regional issues"

The PLAN has a lot of ships but is still learning to be a blue water navy. It can now sail two CBG (Carrier Battle Group), however carrier ops isn't something you learn from reading a book and watching videos. Learning how to sail and fight a CBG is altogether another learning curve and that only comes with time and experience measured in decades. The RN and USN are the worlds two most experienced CV operators, with both being doing it for 100 years. They are still learning each time they put to sea and unlike the PLAN they have battle experience against near peer enemies. However the PLA aren't slow in learning but it still takes a lot of time and experience to be able to competently operate a CBG.

Forget about knowledge for a second, you can't even grasp the point: which is that it is about China vs Taiwan, not China vs US in the middle of the Pacific Ocean.

Moving to knowledge, you show none for ship types in the Chinese navy and their armament. You come across as quite ignorant and I'm quite sure I knew vastly more than you in military technology when I was 16 than you will know when you get put in the dirt.

In any case, do feel free to give me all the points you want. I don't plan to be posting much more here. I've passed along your hypocrisy and violations to the staff and I've done my part. Do feel free to continue flaunting your stupidity.


Tay

@TayJG

Request granted

alexsa

 

[ChestnutTree]

Moving on from that, there was RUMINT from my circles of an idea to transfer the Flankers to Ukraine in exchange for F-16's or Mirage's. It's no secret that the Air Force prefers to use the F-16. However as we all know, the Jokowi administration is rather ambivalent regarding the Russo-Ukrainian war.

 

[Ananda]

Facebook

www.facebook.com

This post by Keris FB, has create quite a stir among Indonesian defense enthusiasts, for the last couple of days. This is coming from a Study done by student from Defense University, that conduct interviews and research on condition and preparedness of TNI-AU Flankers.

Basically it is give assessment on problem with their radars and some of the missiles that need to have extensive uggrade. Seems this is also related with budget proposal for Flankers heavy maintenance and upgrade from MinDef to finance guys.

Off course this's raise some question, that if the budget approve, where MinDef will contract MRO job considering the usual MRO being use before from Russia and Belarus under US CAATSA. Will Indonesia going to force CAATSA risk for maintenance and upgrade of their existing Flankers?

I believe there's some negotiation being done on this matter. Unlike India or Vietnam, Indonesian only have much smaller percentage of existing armaments coming from Russia. Still this is going to be raise by some factions, that will 'question' present administration resolve, if they can't or won't try to get MRO for those existing Flankers.

Indonesia usually get MRO either from original OEM from Russia or Belarusian MRO for those Flankers maintenance. Unlike Malaysian MKM that have more commonalities with Indian MKI, Indonesian Flankers more have commonalities with what Russian, Belarusian, Chinese and Vietnam flankers. Could they source the MRO now from China?

There's rumours on doing MRO in Indonesia, but with assistance from Russian MRO. This's as middle ground to satisfy all parties including US. With only 16 Su-27/30 on present inventory, TNI-AU has not establishing local MRO capabilities for Flankers, unlike more numerous Hawk 200 and F-16. Will this situation create local Flankers MRO capabilities ?

there was RUMINT from my circles of an idea to transfer the Flankers to Ukraine in exchange for F-16's or Mirage's.

Unless they decide to drop the budget for Flankers MRO and upgrade, then the Indication they will keep those Flankers. Personally I'm more inclined (if they decide to get rid of those Flankers) on other rumours that I heard from finance guys. Rumours to sell it cheap to Vietnam.

Russian will probably incline to accept that, and it is good for Inter ASEAN defense co-op. However even that can be acceptable with Russian and Vietnam, there will be 'quite' big hurdle from some domestic political faction. Getting rid of TNI defense asssets, because of external pressure (like CAATSA), is not going to sell well politically. Especially clossing in elections time.

Indonesian political circle has still big anti US portion in it, or at least less sympathetic with US or English speaking west circles. They can cherish this situation to build momentum, questioning on present administration factions on independent national defense credentials.

 

[ChestnutTree]

Posted on a local forum. It seems that the TNI AU is finally getting JHMCS for their Vipers. Long overdue but a welcome addition nonetheless in a series of terrible procurement choices.