Indonesian Aero News

[ChestnutTree]

Unless they are dropping plan for Rafale and F-15.

I stand by my opinion that the MinDef is simply adamant on Rafale just to improve his own political chances at presidency. I'm not going to be surprised if at the end he does a complete 180' and announces an order for the F-16V. Because unless some economic miracle happens, the budget and financing limit set by the Ministry of Finance doesn't really allow them to pick anything other than the F-16V.

I would say that this news strongly implies that the TNI AU is prioritizing supporting assets over the MRCA program. For the most part I think they know that they need to seriously improve airlift capability (considering Indonesia's geography) as well as improving their early warning system and IADS network. Considering PT LEN is already in cooperation with Leonardo (unlike just an LoI with the Rafale) I wouldn't be surprised if the next big news we hear is either the TNI AU inspecting or procuring the Wedgetail/Erieye or MRTT/KC-46 over the Rafale/F-15.

 

[Ananda]

I'm not going to be surprised if at the end he does a complete 180' and announces an order for the F-16V. Because unless some economic miracle happens, the budget and financing limit set by the Ministry of Finance doesn't really allow them to pick anything other than the F-16V.

Well @ChestnutTree that's why I said in Indonesian threads, follow the money trail. Prabowo even Jokowi need to shown they manage to provide development for TNI. It's for Prabowo next political capital (as you mentioned) and also part of Jokowi Political Legacy (he do have political future to think, he definetely doesn't want to end up like SBY now).

So I do sense some MRCA will still be acquiare, and chances of F-16 family still there. Some Indonesian military insiders put pictures of either Rafale or even still proceed with Su-35, by saying US don't want to give F-15. Well I do sense US inclined to offer F-16V not due to their unwillingnes to offer F-15, but because they know what TNI-AU wish list and how much budget available.

The budget for 10-12 Su-35 actualy already allocated. Perhaps with that amount, they can get 8 F-15. Then use some budget for 2 sq of F-16 (perhaps combo F-16V and Some Refurbished ex USAF block 30/40 upgrade to Block 52). With that the rest TNI-AU wish list of ISTAR, AEW, Tanker-Transport, and upgrading GCI coverage can still be more realistically achieved within budget. Definetely other assets that TNI-AU wants can not be achieve if they want to buy those 24-36 Rafale (with the amount of foreign financing available plan on this term).

That's why I always look on how far the 'finance' people willing to provide, cause again the so call defense insiders can talk all they want on MinDef and TNI plan, but in the end money talks.

Perhaps that's why LM still shown optimism so far with Indonesian market.

 

[ChestnutTree]

I honestly don't really see a way for Prabowo to get the Rafale unless the credit ceiling is raised. French equipment is already more expensive to procure let alone than its US counterparts. And considering the TNI AU just went public with the C-130J it's a clear signal that they have different priorities compared to Prabowo.

Even with the F-15 I am a bit skeptical. Yes sure it shares a lot of common parts with the F-16 but it's going to take a lot of money and time to get just IOC. Money which I doubt the government would be willing to spend.

 

[Ananda]

I already put in this thread, the most logical way to get to 11 Sq Fighters that TNI-AU envision, is stick with F-16 and FA-50. I believe TNI-AU brass knows that, as their give hints in media before. It's within budget (both on procurement and maintenance). While in same time provide ample room in budget for other assets development that being envisioned.

However we know most logical ways is not always being follow all the way by MinDef. There's always Political consideration that 'disturb' the logical development. So I put scenario of 8 F-15 and 2 sq of F-16 as balance between logics and politics.

 

[Ananda]

DI officially put video for virtual tour on N219.

This seems part of their preparation for launching N219 to the market.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

DI officially put video for virtual tour on N219.

This seems part of their preparation for launching N219 to the market.

Thank you for sharing.
After they got the Type Certificate last year, there were no any updates or reports about the N219, so its nice to see that this project still exists.

The last newsreport about the Elang Hitam UAV was from begin this year, at that time the first flight was planned for August this year.....

 

[koxinga]

How much does wait time factor in the decision for the F-16V, if politics is not a factor? Based on the current orders (>130), any orders now can only be fulfilled by LM around 2025 or later if I am not wrong.

 

[Ananda]

Officially the delay now more due to COVID situation. However it's well known that LM and Dasault 'agents' work hard on getting the deal soon. They (the administration) seems pushing the vaccination drive in order to stabilize COVID infection rate.

They will not going to announce any new big projects (including defense infrastructure) if the infection rate still run wild. The numbers now already stabilising since end of last month. Thus they begin to shown continuation of big projects, including defense. We already see they come out to media on C-130J (which clearly the process before being kept down from public/media during COVID).

Rumours circulate that by 4th quarter more big projects will be announce on continuation. So I suspect either 4th quarter or 1st quarter next year. Again all depends on COVID situation.

Prabowo's already talk in media, that any new fighters will need around 2-3 years as soonest to get into TNI-AU operation. Even the Fighters packages is combo of new plus refurbished fighters, it will taken at least 2 years on operational. So if they finalise the deal by end of this year, it will be around end of 2024 the first one will be operational (the soonest).

It will be coincide with next election, which make it also Political incentive for Prabowo's to get the deal by 4th quarter of this year. Still any huge spike of COVID (especially in Java-Bali) will potentialy delayed any big projects announcement. That's why I said (in COVID thread) that Indonesian administration will try to get 60-80% full vaccination in Java-Bali by 4th quarter of this year. Java-Bali after all represent 2/3 of economy. If Java-Bali stabilize, they can have more room to begin new projects again, including big defense items.

 

[Ananda]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1437866993604911111

I only put the tweeter guy tweet if I found a particular ridiculous tweet. This one really belong to that. In sense he's right that to improve chances of export, N219 need either FAA safety certificate or EASA ones. However (talking to Industry people) not necessarily both of them needed. You got both is good thing but either one already provide back up for your export campaign.

What make it his tweet ridiculous, and showing his desperation as Frenchie/Euro agent:
1. Base on his logic, buying LM products can also provide help from LM to help DI get FAA license. So why should buy Rafale, if LM can help getting FAA license.
2. Why DI need Dasault to get Euro license, when they already have long term connection with Airbus. DI after all already part of Airbus ecosystem. Certainly Airbus have more connection to EASA then Dasault.

This tweeter shown his desperation for Dasault deals. Trying to sell to the public the advantage for Dasault/Frenchie deals. Perhaps the rumours is right, that MinDef and MoF leaning to LM cause the available budget will not be enough to finance other TNI-AU wish list, if Rafale including.

 

[Ananda]

https://www.facebook.com/764115790355992/posts/3790160937751447

From DI Facebook pages. Seems what being rumours before, officially being rectify. DI plan for N245 Regional Turboprop (as development from CN235), will got Turkish TAI on development. The Facebook pages shown as part of agreement being sign in Turkey. Seems also Turkey want to involve with N219 program.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Just uploaded, a long video about the N219.
I didn't watch this whole 47-minutes video, but in the end we can see the N219-flightsimulator. Like the N250-flightsimulator it is a fixed one, but with ofcourse more detailed graphics.

Compared to others in the same class, the N219 is very spacy. I wonder when the mass production will be start.

Sadly we can also see in this video that a CN235 prototype and a N250 prototype (PK-XNK) are just stored outside in the open air.

 

[Ananda]

we can also see in this video that a CN235 prototype and a N250 prototype (PK-XNK) are just stored outside in the open air.

One of N250 prototype already being send to AF Museum. They build two flying prototype from what I remember. How the progress on any future development on N250 are now hanging in balance.

Regio Aviasi (RAI) that's hoping to continue developing their R80 based on N250 tech, so far has not get enough Investors. The Government seems more willing to give IAe/DI work on N245, that's also on condition DI to find other partner. That's why on my previous post, DI now approaching TAI for join development. I'm more inclined on that JV to work rather than IFX with KAI, as it's DI that have the IP rights. There will be more Political will to support that, rather than just a Junior Partner with only licensing rights.

After all there's no budget now being prepared even to pay what's due to KAI on KFX/IFX/KF-21. Hopefully they'll got more support on N245 like in N219.

Add:
I will still see the Industry Analyst look at the market for Turboprop is only up to 50 pac. Later on I will put article that wrote what Embrear executive think on Turboprop market on General Aviation thread. This's why I think N245 as concept can still work and that Regio R80 is not going to work on future Turboprop market.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

One of N250 prototype already being send to AF Museum. They build two flying prototype from what I remember. How the progress on any future development on N250 are now hanging in balance.

Regio Aviasi (RAI) that's hoping to continue developing their R80 based on N250 tech, so far has not get enough Investors. The Government seems more willing to give IAe/DI work on N245, that's also on condition DI to find other partner. That's why on my previous post, DI now approaching TAI for join development. I'm more inclined on that JV to work rather than IFX with KAI, as it's DI that have the IP rights. There will be more Political will to support that, rather than just a Junior Partner with only licensing rights.

After all there's no budget now being prepared even to pay what's due to KAI on KFX/IFX/KF-21. Hopefully they'll got more support on N245 like in N219.

Add:
I will still see the Industry Analyst look at the market for Turboprop is only up to 50 pac. Later on I will put article that wrote what Embrear executive think on Turboprop market on General Aviation thread. This's why I think N245 as concept can still work and that Regio R80 is not going to work on future Turboprop market.

In my opinion IPTN should focus on the start of the production of N219 and its spareparts and the development of Elang Hitam UAV and the Amphibious version of the N219. I wonder if IPTN already got the Production Certificate for the N219, until now there are no signs that the production of the N219 will start soon.

After the programs above are running well, then IPTN can continue with developing the N245.

I think its better that IPTN not get involved with the R80. Development of the prgrams above and the on time production and livery of the various types and the spareparts for its own models and the EC725 is already heavy enough.

 

[Ananda]

After the programs above are running well, then IPTN can continue with developing the N245

Agree on that. I believe from what they're putting on their FB page, clearly they're still in very early stage. If they want to begin this N245 program, say 2-3 years from now, they have to begin study and finding potential partner from now.

Even company on Embrear size, already begin their study, even though they are planning to begin the development process couple years from now.

think its better that IPTN not get involved with the R80. Development of the prgrams above and the on time production and livery of the various types and the spareparts for its own models and the EC725 is already heavy enough.

Yes, this's that many fan boys in Indonesian defense forum that doesn't seems grabs the idea. DI is still in very precarious condition. N219 is actually make or break project for them. They have to shown they can manage this project well, before people in Government can trust to inject more money for more projects.

So after they can proven themselves to deliver with N219 and this Black Eagle UAV for another two years ahead (that's including their after sales support capabilities, which always their Achilles heals), shown themselves that they're capable as professional aircraft manufacturing company, then other people will then take more seriously on their other projects.

I do still see as market concept N245 is much more make sense then this R80. The article on Embrear Turboprop studies that I put in General Aviation thread shown that even Embrear as much more capable Aircraft Company then DI, already shown several things to make new Turboprop program feasible:
1. The new Turboprop has to shown much better efficiency then 50pac regional jets they need to replace. As they see that's the niche market for Turboprop in the future,
2. They have to come out with much better Turboprop design then existing ATR 42/72 or Dash 8.

So is this R80 as the present design shown more cutting edge capabilities then ATR and Dash 8? I don't think so. As they basically only doing some iteration on N250/270 design from 90's. The market for Turboprop Airliner is limited, how you are going to convince people that what you have is better than Dash 8 and ATR.

That's why IPTN effort after Economics Crisis and Soeharto fall to find new Investors for N250 can't come to fruition. No Investor really believe that N250 can provide better edge than ATR and Dash 8 (as Market leader). Thus why they want to invest on that ?

Sometimes I smack my face seeing that there're still many people including those Fan Boys in Indonesian forums, that always blame IMF for IPTN demise. As one of the people that already working on Indonesian Finance Industry at that time, I can tell you is not IMF fault on IPTN demise. However IPTN itself was bloated inefficient Aircraft Company to begin with.

DI/IAe as IPTN successor has to proven themselves that they're not IPTN in making again. They have to relearn step by step again as I have posted so many times. Thus as you have posted also, don't let DI involved with that R80 program.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Some nice photos of rehearsal flights over Halim Perdanakusuma AFB, Jakarta, for the upcoming Indonesian Armed Forces / TNI 76th anniversary celebration at 5 October.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1444168425991901187

 

[Ananda]

Let's whether after this they will give confirmation on some of the longest procurement drama on TNI-AU history. The F-5 replacement program.



Take this picture from Kris FB on IPTN first CN-235 MPA iteration during Soeharto time. Just as reminder what I have posted time to time again, how that Dictactor actually having better planning then all his subsequent Presidents. Eventough his resources actually much smaller (even in USD constant price index), then present time.

It's all back to sort out between Defense planning and resources reality with Political will.

 

[Arji]

Let's whether after this they will give confirmation on some of the longest procurement drama on TNI-AU history. The F-5 replacement program.

What makes you think anything new will come out then?

 

[Ananda]

What makes you think anything new will come out then?

Just my personal assessment on whether they (means this Administration) really have will to sort out outstanding defense planning.

The 'finance' people rumours saying present MinDef planning is slightly better then previous term. However there're still some areas they are not yet in lining between will and reality of resources. Again I'm betting that Prabowo's want to sort out all MinDef planning, for his own Political images.

Again it's just my own assessment, base from rumours that I got. Nothing specific yet, but so far they're eventually finalising some Projects as we know off. So let's see how the rest progressing.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Let's whether after this they will give confirmation on some of the longest procurement drama on TNI-AU history. The F-5 replacement program.

Don't forget the EH-101 case....
That one is still not solved.

Just my personal assessment on whether they (means this Administration) really have will to sort out outstanding defense planning.

The 'finance' people rumours saying present MinDef planning is slightly better then previous term. However there're still some areas they are not yet in lining between will and reality of resources. Again I'm betting that Prabowo's want to sort out all MinDef planning, for his own Political images.

Again it's just my own assessment, base from rumours that I got. Nothing specific yet, but so far they're eventually finalising some Projects as we know off. So let's see how the rest progressing.

Its better to have a Defence minister who do something for TNI even if its only for image building, than his useless predecessor who can only give empty promises and infantile statements and comments.

 

[Ananda]

finance' people rumours saying present MinDef planning is slightly better then previous term.

https://www.kemhan.go.id/renhan/2021/06/15/penyerahan-bmn-kemhan-tni-awards-ta-2020.html

Perhaps this is related to the rumours that I heard from 'finance' people. MinDef seems trying to improve their planning especialy related to budget preparation and allocation.

This kind of thing that previously create delays with 'finance' people. This kind of technical thing seems not matter much, but it is important on budget preparation and execution.