Ahmad
Active Member
I believe next year we are going to see some orders for navy, particularly for frigates and OPV. For submarine, they need to finish that additional submarine building facility first.
Indonesia: 'green water navy'
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Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
Believe...wish...hope?
I also hope that next year we are going to see some orders for the navy....but i am doing this for the last 6 years...
About the submarine building facility, i also wonder on which stage the additional buildings are. Last month this video was posted by PAL.
All other newer video's from PAL are useless Covid-19 and "Indonesia Muda Club" videos.
With every year i am becoming more pessimistic about the intentions of the current administration. Even if PALs facility is completely finished, i will not be surprised if until 2024 there will be no submarine orders (to be build at PAL or newbuild from abroad) at all.
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Ahmad
Active Member
Ha ha, this is why I was absent talking here during Jokowi first term he he. No need to waste time talking rumor he he. Despite so, some orders are really made during Jokowi first term, particularly related to equipment that can be provided by our local defense industry. The sales growth experienced by our major local defense industries are quite good during Jokowi first term by the way, it is just an indication that they did make some spending for weapon and defense equipment during that period. The financing, can be said, just taken directly from the defense budget, not many uses domestic or foreign loan, something like hospital ships, KCR 60, CN 235, NC 212, and so on.
Well, the funding for additional submarine building facility will be taken from 2021 budget, there is no single Rupiah yet being disbursed. This is why there should be at least another 1 year before the facility is really completed. Because of that, it is understandable if Helman said there is no loan approval yet for Chang Bogo. It doesnt mean it is going to be cancelled, in my opinion, like he would like to show from the way he uses words on his twitt, but rather, I believe, waiting for the facility to be constructed first before any loan approval is made, regardless what kind of submarines that is going to be ordered. Despite so, Chang Bogo is likely the one that will be choosen IMO due to its TOT package that is more appealing for our local industry and its program contribution on our domestic economy.
I think this second administration will be quite different, but I also dont expect massive order to happen like during SBY administration. As I said repeatedly, they will likely to prefer financing the orders that are more related to our local defense companies and has more effect on our economy. That tendency has just been shown by seeing Pindad products massive orders this year. The proposal made by defense industry to get foreign loan is also an indication that there will be some different between first and second Jokowi administration, although I believe and hope that large portion of it will be rejected, particularly for foreign orders that is expensive, has little TOT, and zero domestic economy/local industry participation like F 16 V possible orders (better wait KFX/IFX program)
This is the latest news about order execution during this term. Tanker ship for Navy that will be build by our local shipyard, Batamex.
:strip_icc():format(jpeg)/kly-media-production/medias/2949990/original/012765000_1572010406-WhatsApp_Image_2019-10-24_at_22.56.35.jpeg)
Batamec Shipyard Kembali Garap Kapal Bantu Cair Minyak Pesanan TNI AL
PT Batamec Shipyard kembali dipercaya oleh TNI Angkatan Laut untuk menyediakan satu unit kapal yang dirancang sebagai Kapal Bantu Cair Minyak (BCM).
www.liputan6.com
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Re: foreign loans and navy orders.
The Japanese offer is interesting though. They are willing to include domestic shipyards in the program, as we see from their visit to PT PAL facilities back in September. (see post #1119) A 30DX sale in which Indonesia gets to build the hull but have the internal systems provided by Japan is going to be a very attractive offer. And if they're willing to give the loan in terms similar to JICA, that's definitely worth examining in detail.
JICA is civilian and I believe Japanese politics make it impossible for JICA to finance defense systems. The closest they can get is unarmed coast guard ships (which can be armed later after it's turned over). But Japan has been talking about wanting to export defense systems, and if they can create a sort of financing scheme that offers the very low rates similar to what we see in JICA, it may counteract the higher cost of Japanese systems. JICA's loan term is extremely generous, with interest rate as low as 0.01% annually. Indonesia won't qualify for that sort of term--that's only for the very poor countries--but even a standard 1.25% annual interest rate over 30 years is way better than what commercial banks offer. Moreover, if Japan's willing to offer us Special Terms for Economic Partnership (STEP) terms, that's 0.1% annual interest rate. Given that the requirement for STEP is "extended to the projects for which Japanese technologies and know-how are substantially utilized, based on the recipient countries' request to utilize and transfer excellent technologies of Japan", I don't think it's a stretch to say that the 30DX frigates qualify.
Again, they can't use JICA for this. But they don't have to. A plain G2G contract that omits the name JICA but has essentially the same terms will do.
The Japanese offer is interesting though. They are willing to include domestic shipyards in the program, as we see from their visit to PT PAL facilities back in September. (see post #1119) A 30DX sale in which Indonesia gets to build the hull but have the internal systems provided by Japan is going to be a very attractive offer. And if they're willing to give the loan in terms similar to JICA, that's definitely worth examining in detail.
JICA is civilian and I believe Japanese politics make it impossible for JICA to finance defense systems. The closest they can get is unarmed coast guard ships (which can be armed later after it's turned over). But Japan has been talking about wanting to export defense systems, and if they can create a sort of financing scheme that offers the very low rates similar to what we see in JICA, it may counteract the higher cost of Japanese systems. JICA's loan term is extremely generous, with interest rate as low as 0.01% annually. Indonesia won't qualify for that sort of term--that's only for the very poor countries--but even a standard 1.25% annual interest rate over 30 years is way better than what commercial banks offer. Moreover, if Japan's willing to offer us Special Terms for Economic Partnership (STEP) terms, that's 0.1% annual interest rate. Given that the requirement for STEP is "extended to the projects for which Japanese technologies and know-how are substantially utilized, based on the recipient countries' request to utilize and transfer excellent technologies of Japan", I don't think it's a stretch to say that the 30DX frigates qualify.
Again, they can't use JICA for this. But they don't have to. A plain G2G contract that omits the name JICA but has essentially the same terms will do.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Yes, they can use Similar terms like they are doing in JICA project without using JICA. Export defense equipment is new venture by Japanese. However they way they're going to do it, I do suspect will not be much different with the way they're doing Investment-Credit Loan cooperation in other sectors.
Just like they are taking that 3 EW Radars deal from Philippines. If I see the Philippines forums, even they're quite surprised with the speed of the deal in comparison of how usual Philippines MinDef getting procurement deal.
For one thing, Japan already have more than 50 years cornering commercial deals in Asia, and they know how to co-op better.
All the deals they're doing is part of getting orders for their own industry, but in same time they're also getting partners in other Asian Host countries. In one point it give involvement to local industry and Jobs (which is good for their PR campaign, which also so far they're doing it better then the Chinese), on other points they also put the local partners as part of their supply chain this maintain long term Partnership.
This will give continues foot hold on the market, we can see that on what they're doing with Thailand and Indonesia automotive industries (which are two largest in ASEAN).
MHI not only looking just for PAL facilities, but they are also assessing other Shipyards in Banten and Batam. Thus it shows similarities with Japanese practice on looking for Partners to do the local jobs.
Question will be if TNI-AL will prefer on Japanese systems. This's the systems that they're not familiar with. However looking on MHI videos on 30FFM seems they prepare to potentially combine non Japanese systems in the design.
I suspect MHI looking on Partners to build the hulls and superstructure, while they supervise the building, and system integration. Japanese machineries and propulsion system will be use, but on sensors, electronics and weapons they will let whatever the customer choose.
Just like in the Philippines, Japanese can cut other potential suppliers that already in talk before. After all, even with Chinese and South Korean advancement on commercial deals, ASEAN as whole still relied to Japanese as biggest Investors and suppliers on Heavy Industry equipment and High Tech equipment.
One thing that can be said with Japanese, they might be bit slower to come with decision compared to Chinese and South Korean, however once they make their move, they're relentless on pushing it.
Just like they are taking that 3 EW Radars deal from Philippines. If I see the Philippines forums, even they're quite surprised with the speed of the deal in comparison of how usual Philippines MinDef getting procurement deal.
For one thing, Japan already have more than 50 years cornering commercial deals in Asia, and they know how to co-op better.
All the deals they're doing is part of getting orders for their own industry, but in same time they're also getting partners in other Asian Host countries. In one point it give involvement to local industry and Jobs (which is good for their PR campaign, which also so far they're doing it better then the Chinese), on other points they also put the local partners as part of their supply chain this maintain long term Partnership.
This will give continues foot hold on the market, we can see that on what they're doing with Thailand and Indonesia automotive industries (which are two largest in ASEAN).
MHI not only looking just for PAL facilities, but they are also assessing other Shipyards in Banten and Batam. Thus it shows similarities with Japanese practice on looking for Partners to do the local jobs.
Question will be if TNI-AL will prefer on Japanese systems. This's the systems that they're not familiar with. However looking on MHI videos on 30FFM seems they prepare to potentially combine non Japanese systems in the design.
I suspect MHI looking on Partners to build the hulls and superstructure, while they supervise the building, and system integration. Japanese machineries and propulsion system will be use, but on sensors, electronics and weapons they will let whatever the customer choose.
Just like in the Philippines, Japanese can cut other potential suppliers that already in talk before. After all, even with Chinese and South Korean advancement on commercial deals, ASEAN as whole still relied to Japanese as biggest Investors and suppliers on Heavy Industry equipment and High Tech equipment.
One thing that can be said with Japanese, they might be bit slower to come with decision compared to Chinese and South Korean, however once they make their move, they're relentless on pushing it.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
PT PAL Pakai PMN 2021 Rp1,28 T untuk Pelihara Kapal Selam
PT PAL akan menggunakan suntikan modal Rp1,28 triliun yang diperolehnya untuk pemeliharaan kapal selam.
m.cnnindonesia.com
Confirmation from PT. PAL for Capital Injection from Government of IDR 1.28 T (around USD 90 Mio) will be used to complete their Submarine Yard facilities. The initial injection of IDR 1.5 T five years ago (around USD 110 mio on exchange rate that time), being used on what can be said as Phase 1 facilities.
The Phase 1 enable PT. PAL to do Submarine overhaul and Assembly. This on what can be call Phase 2 will enable them for complete manufacturing process.
Back then PT. PAL told media that the facilities being build for manufacturing Submarine of around 2000 ton class. No additional info whether the capacity range will be still around 2000 ton or more.
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
Even there are no signs that additional submarines will be ordered, it is good news. At least Indonesia will have complete maintenance, repair and overhaul facilities.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Well it will be Political Issue with this Administration if they already give government Injection for around USD 200 mio for PT. PAL during 5 years period, and only used that for maintenance and overhaul. It can raise question in Parliament, and usually that kind of thing want to be avoided.
Considering that, I do see some Submarine projects will be done toward the rest of this administration second term. Question what kind of Submarine will be in the project.
Off course from PT. PAL it self already prepared the work toward DSME 1400 second batch. They have shown it to public and media. However we also know political wrangling on continuation of DSME 1400, moreover other Suppliers lobby try to cut DSME from TNI-AL next submarine project.
Personally as I have put in my older post in this thread, I support DSME 2000 design to be co-op by PAL and DSME as next batch of TNI-AL submarine.
It's a design that being prepared by DSME for export, thus will not be used by ROKN. This can put potential leverage by PAL to discuss with DSME to co-own the design. It's also more advance design than DSME 1400 however still build based on that. Thus learning curve by PAL will not that big, compared to taking over new design from Naval Group, TKMS or SAAB. There's nothing wrong with DSME expertise on Submarine building, it just some 'parties' try to smear that for purpose of their "favorite" supplier.
That's just my two cents. The "expert" in MinDef will be the one who decide or more correctly give the right "assessment" to the administration.
Considering that, I do see some Submarine projects will be done toward the rest of this administration second term. Question what kind of Submarine will be in the project.
Off course from PT. PAL it self already prepared the work toward DSME 1400 second batch. They have shown it to public and media. However we also know political wrangling on continuation of DSME 1400, moreover other Suppliers lobby try to cut DSME from TNI-AL next submarine project.
Personally as I have put in my older post in this thread, I support DSME 2000 design to be co-op by PAL and DSME as next batch of TNI-AL submarine.
It's a design that being prepared by DSME for export, thus will not be used by ROKN. This can put potential leverage by PAL to discuss with DSME to co-own the design. It's also more advance design than DSME 1400 however still build based on that. Thus learning curve by PAL will not that big, compared to taking over new design from Naval Group, TKMS or SAAB. There's nothing wrong with DSME expertise on Submarine building, it just some 'parties' try to smear that for purpose of their "favorite" supplier.
That's just my two cents. The "expert" in MinDef will be the one who decide or more correctly give the right "assessment" to the administration.
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Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
When the three Type 209/1400 boats were ordered for $ 1,1-1,2M, that was including the assembly of the KRI Alugoro 405. Does this $200 million come on top of that?
I also wonder where the tools and equipment coming from, probably most from South-Korea, but i cant find information about that on the internet.
"It's a design that being prepared by DSME for export, thus will not be used by ROKN. This can put potential leverage by PAL to discuss with DSME to co-own the design."
It can be a good plan, but i am afraid that DSME will hesitate about joint development and PAL co-owning the design....and you know why.
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Ananda
The Bunker Group
Yes it's come on top of that. It's not part of procurement cost. Government put it as Injection Capital for new facilities. PAL says in Media that building the Submarine facilities, they're working with DSME as their consultants. Thus perhaps some of equipment come from South Korea, but I do suspect some from other suppliers. This as DSME it self when build their facilities also used some equipment from Euro sources (especially for precision ones).
Well, DSME need to find consumers for that DSME 2000 design. It will be back to negotiations price I think. However I do think DSME understand that current trend on exporting Naval Vessels means they need to cut deals with local Partner shipyard.
For me, I put the design for consideration on PAL learning curve. If the MinDef doesn't want DSME 1400 anymore, then DSME 2000 in my opinion is better adjustments for PAL Learning curve. Rather than PAL has to adjust on completely new design.
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Ananda
The Bunker Group
Hu,hu..this guy more and more shown his true colour of representing Euro interest within Indonesia Defense procurement establishment. Showing his 'nervousness' of Japan 'buldozing' move toward Defense project.
Well, if Airbus can get big Lobby power in Indonesian defense project due their long establishment with DI. Imagine that with Japan that has long established relationship with Indonesia practically every where. Japan already shown their 'discomfort' with China move on commercial sectors in Indonesia, thus they already shown many counter move there.
Now they're showing their move on defense, simply because they begin seriously engaged on Defense export Market. I remember one of my colleagues in Dutch Bank (now that Bank part of RBS), that already have long term presences in Indonesia before. He says; Dutch have 3.5 centuries rules and presence in Indonesia and Japan only have 3.5 years, however Japan easily push away Dutch business competition in Indonesia. He's complaining how Japanese Bank outbid them in many businesses, and that's 25 years ago.
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
Ah...dont become upset after reading the revelations of the Oracle on Twitter.
He only posted this Tweet
"Referred to procurement plan, Lockheed Martin's Sikorsky and Leonardo projected to have footprint in Indonesian Army vertical lift market with UH-60 or S70i and AW149. Bell Textron will stay with more Bell 412 order. Boeing stay in the market but no AH-64E, MV-22, CH-47 orders."
almost 24 hours after the Chief of Staff of TNI-AU made a statement of the army's request list in mass-media, while the Oracle on Twitter always acts like he has predictive powers and secret connections to highranking officials.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Ha,ha, I'm not upset..bit laughing instead. Cause this guy more and more showing his true colours as Euro Defence Contractor lobbyist. His tweet that many in Indonesian Enthusiasts forum treat as source of 'reputable' rumours, turn out more and more as part of his efforts to gain public support or media campaign for Euro Contractor benefits.
His motive's not as an independent ex Jane's journalist, thus independent enthusiasts, as he pretend to be.
His motive's not as an independent ex Jane's journalist, thus independent enthusiasts, as he pretend to be.
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
Yes, i actually only check his tweets because its amusing.
Everybody has his own feeling/opinion about countries or defence equipment manufacturers, but as journalist you have to try to be as objective/neutral as possible.
Btw, i wonder why he is an EX-Jane journalist...
Ananda
The Bunker Group
I guessed his presence position as 'consultant' to foreign defense company, give more than just Jane's representative in Indonesia.
Anyway that's what I do not like with some so call 'influencer' wannabe in online media like Twitter or Reddit, or YouTube now. More and more those 'influencer' (mostly I see on millenials but not all), didn't disclose who they really are. Somehow their personafication as just another regular guys, are seems more sellable to gain hit.
Just like this guy, I got more information on his background after I check his LinkedIn account. That's where I begin to realize that his Twitter are part of his subtle campaign to the Defense enthusiasts online. Seems it's also perhaps related to MinDef also checking social media accounts to gauge public opinion.
He doesn't put much in his LinkedIn account. Perhaps I suspect due to LinkedIn is for professional social media, thus his background information is more clear in there. However most public will not go to LinkedIn to find information or 'rumours'. They'll go to Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, YouTube or even Weibao. Those sites are easier to 'hide' who you're and Public most of the time really don't care who wrote it. As long as somehow meet their believe and expectations.
That's why some elements that come on the fringe of real life spectrum can move up to become real live contender. That's how mess up public opinion this days
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ChestnutTree
Active Member
My favorite rumor was when he said that you would need "launch codes" from the US government whenever you needed to launch a Javelin or AMRAAM missile. And my response to that was how can he explain the air skirmish earlier this year between Pakistan and India as (if his statement was true) that would mean the US government gave explicit permission for the Pakistanis to down aircraft with US missiles at the expense of India.
Going back on topic, I would say that a Japanese frigate with either a European sensor/weapons package would be an attractive thing to see. I doubt the Indonesian Navy would be okay operating Japanese subsystems considering the majority of our equipment uses Thales/MBDA sub-systems. I assume Mitsubishi would not object to having their 30FFM use Thales SMART/SM/NS series radars with an MBDA weapons pack other than quoting the integration costs.
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Ananda
The Bunker Group
This's I suppose will be a test to Japanese Contractor. They used to build tailor made assets for JSDF uses. However if want to exploits export potential, they have to be flexible for customers need. 30FFM suppose to be flexible design that can be adjust for each customers need. Let see how this turns out.
Mitsubishi it self has a lot off projects in Indonesia, that's want thing that they can potentially do. Provide combo packages on multiple sectors. If Mitsubishi bring on their Keiretsu network, it can double the scope. No wonder guys that represents Euro interest getting nervous.
Mitsubishi it self has a lot off projects in Indonesia, that's want thing that they can potentially do. Provide combo packages on multiple sectors. If Mitsubishi bring on their Keiretsu network, it can double the scope. No wonder guys that represents Euro interest getting nervous.
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
The Japanese have almost zero export-experience, but South-Korea is able to intergrate American, European and Korean systems in one decent working warship, so i expect the Japanese should be able to do something similar too, even if it takes some time.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
JMSDF eventough mostly used Japan own system, but also uses many American and some Euro originated system (especially in the beginning where they also used RR turbine. The question will be on 30FFM design. To make it export success, MHI has to make the design easy adaptable for any system packages. This is the real tests for MHI export drive.
Anyway, @Sandhi Yudha you seems in this thread ask info on TNI-AL MCMV projects with German shipyard. Seems according to Indonesian Embassy in Germany sites, they're begin the process.
indonesianembassy.de
This's from Ministry of Foreign affairs, to confirm it.
kemlu.go.id
Anyway, @Sandhi Yudha you seems in this thread ask info on TNI-AL MCMV projects with German shipyard. Seems according to Indonesian Embassy in Germany sites, they're begin the process.
DUA KAPAL MCMV PESANAN INDONESIA MULAI DIKERJAKAN 2021
Indonesia membeli dua unit kapal MCMV (Mine Counter-Measure Vessel) Type MHV-60 dari salah satu perusahaan Jerman Abeking & Rasmussen.
indonesianembassy.de
This's from Ministry of Foreign affairs, to confirm it.
Kedutaan Besar Republik Indonesia di Berlin, Republik Federal Jerman
Kedutaan Besar Republik Indonesia di Berlin, Republik Federal Jerman
kemlu.go.id
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