Indonesia: 'green water navy'

[Sandhi Yudha]

PAL Indonesia berhasil modernisasi KRI Malahayati-362

PAL Indonesia berhasil modernisasi KRI Malahayati-362

industri.kontan.co.id

Seems I miss to mention that beside Mandau FMB's, the Fatahilla Corvettes also CODAG. However based on the article above, the MLU being done by PAL for those Corvettes also change their propulsion to CODAD.

Thus again this shown TNI-AL preference to operating CODAD environment. In such if somehow this plan for Interim second hand Frigates still being pursue, there's possibility they will prefer CODAD second hand Frigates or calculate changing it to CODAD.

1. So, this means that KRI Fatahillah 361 and KRI Malahayati 362 both already got the MLM, with KRI Nala 363 just started, right?
2. Is the modernisation identical of these three ships?
3. Besides the propulsion, CMS and replacement of the Signaal WM-25 (or WM-28?) with the Terma Scanter 4100, what else is changed? Does the Scanter 4100 also replace the DA-05?


About the plan to buy the F122 Bremen class Lübeck:
If the costs of buying foreign second hand frigates+refurbishment+modernizing them with new CODAD, sensor and weaponsystems is lower than buying new ones abroad or locally, and if these second hand ships can operate decently for the next 20 years, then its a cost effective choice.

If not, then its a waste of our limited budget, energy and time.

 

[Ananda]

Seems Scanter 4100 being used now for all primary sensors. All Terma system being choose seems due to it's more simplified system based on Scanter 4100.

If the costs of buying foreign second hand frigates+refurbishment+modernizing them with new CODAD, sensor and weaponsystems is lower than buying new ones abroad or locally, and if these second hand ships can operate decently for the next 20 years, then its a cost effective choice

It's not just like that. Seems there's realisation that due to years wasted with first term administration MinDef process, not only current Frigates already beyond their operational capabilities, but using PAL shipyard to build replacement will take more time than 2024 envision before to replace all Van Speijk.

Thus seems the choices either buying Interim second hand Frigates, perhaps upgrade them in domestic Shipyards. Or diversified local manufacturing for Corvettes/Frigates size vessel (TNI-AL call them both as PKR) not only within PAL shipyard but to other Shipyards in Indonesia.

This's the dilemma that similar in Fighters procurement. How to get it before 2024. Either procured them all brand new which will take time, or procured some of them second hand and upgrade them domestically with DI.

Off course Budget wise will determine, but time table of 2024 is also politically important. This administration want to regain Presidency to candidate they'll think will be politically allied to them, for continuing their policies and political agreement. Thus all target should be at least shown in progress by 2024 before next election.

 

[OPSSG]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1199641127533432832

Interesting details of the planning invoked to rescue hostages from pirates.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Seems Scanter 4100 being used now for all primary sensors. All Terma system being choose seems due to it's more simplified system based on Scanter 4100.




It's not just like that. Seems there's realisation that due to years wasted with first term administration MinDef process, not only current Frigates already beyond their operational capabilities, but using PAL shipyard to build replacement will take more time than 2024 envision before to replace all Van Speijk.

Thus seems the choices either buying Interim second hand Frigates, perhaps upgrade them in domestic Shipyards. Or diversified local manufacturing for Corvettes/Frigates size vessel (TNI-AL call them both as PKR) not only within PAL shipyard but to other Shipyards in Indonesia.

This's the dilemma that similar in Fighters procurement. How to get it before 2024. Either procured them all brand new which will take time, or procured some of them second hand and upgrade them domestically with DI.

Off course Budget wise will determine, but time table of 2024 is also politically important. This administration want to regain Presidency to candidate they'll think will be politically allied to them, for continuing their policies and political agreement. Thus all target should be at least shown in progress by 2024 before next election.

Yes....so because the current Jokowi/Luhut/PDI-P administration almost did nothing from 2014-2020, Mindef makes now panic-maneuvres to fill in all the holes the administration created.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1199641127533432832

Interesting details of the planning invoked to rescue hostages from pirates.

Interesting, but how accurate is this story, whats the source?

This story create many questions...
1. In my opinion the LG-1 105 mm artillery of the Korps Marinir is not really useful during a hostage situation.
2. Just one helicopter?
3. To get this assault fleet near Somalia takes weeks.
4. Why are air force personnel even involved?
5. How do they even know where the hostages are taken to? You need special forces units on the ground, UAV-teams, an ISTAR/ELINT aircraft and maybe even realtime satellite images at the moment the hostages are taken on land.


Edit: most type errors corrected.

 

[Ananda]

Indonesian Navy chief downplays request to revive ageing vessels

The Indonesian Navy (Tentara Nasional Indonesia – Angkatan Laut: TNI-AL) chief, Admiral Yudo Margono, has written to the country’s defence minister to explain why it...

www.janes.com

From Jane's, on the Indonesian Naval Chief stating that it's hard to stop or revise the process on put 10 aging vessels from retiree process, as inquiry from Defense Minister.

This shown, current MinDef facing problems on how to keep the operational level. MinDef facing aging vessels need to retired due to inefficient condition to keep it operational, the time and off course budget to procure new vessels, and alternative on sourcing second hand vessels or even new ones from overseas.

The political possition on build locally as much as possible, facing condition on productivity level of local Shipyards. Yes, local shipyards already shown capabilities to build Amphibious vessels such as LPD, LST or LCU, Litoral vessels such as Patrol Boats, Missile Boats, and OPV, or support like Tankers.
However the capabilities of local Shipyards and productivity level are not can be called already in similar level through out Industry. Means it will take time for local Shipyards to replace all aging vessels based on their current productivity level.

Thus, Prabowo's now in my opinion need to sell the idea on buying overseas for second hand vessels and even some new ones to compensate local Shipyards. He has to convince politically that not everything at this moment can be source locally from domestic Shipyards.

This condition being worsen with his predecessor track record that practically can be said as delaying procurement process, to his lap.

 

[Ahmad]

No need to be rush, just build them all in our local shipyards and many old ships can also undergo MLM like Malahayati corvette. Our relation with China is not like Pakistan vs India or India vs China or South Korea vs North Korea. PT PAL also still has enough idle capacity to produce several ships simultaneously. Other state owned shipbuilder like Kodja Bahari and private owned local shipyards like DRU can also be used to do MLM on old ships like our East German corvettes.

2024 is not a fixed deathline, we all know that it is impossible to meet Minimum Essential Force target at 2024 and I think that plan is also too ambitious, we need time maybe until 2040 to reach that goal. No need to be burdent with that unrealistic MEF plan, any way it is economic problem that needs to be solved first and our defense budget has already been quite big.

I think all the remaining 5 Van Speijk frigates can still be operated until 2035 (all have undergone modernization and it includes new engine in 2000's) and we still need many big warships to assert our present in Natuna, no need to replace them now.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

No need to be rush, just build them all in our local shipyards and many old ships can also undergo MLM like Malahayati corvette. Our relation with China is not like Pakistan vs India or India vs China or South Korea vs North Korea. PT PAL also still has enough idle capacity to produce several ships simultaneously. Other state owned shipbuilder like Kodja Bahari and private owned local shipyards like DRU can also be used to do MLM on old ships like our East German corvettes.

2024 is not a fixed deathline, we all know that it is impossible to meet Minimum Essential Force target at 2024 and I think that plan is also too ambitious, we need time maybe until 2040 to reach that goal. No need to be burdent with that unrealistic MEF plan, any way it is economic problem that needs to be solved first and our defense budget has already been quite big.

I think all the remaining 5 Van Speijk frigates can still be operated until 2035 (all have undergone modernization and it includes new engine in 2000's) and we still need many big warships to assert our present in Natuna, no need to replace them now.

We need to rush, our 50+ years old Van Speijkklasse are worn out, equipped with obsolete sensors and weaponsystems and its questionable if the anti-shipmissiles on board are still servicable.
The SBY-administration had a great and quite well planned MEF-program in three phases which are not too ambitious. The problem is that the current Jokowi-administration messed everything up: from 2014-2020 almost nothing happen. The SIGMA 10514 program discontinued, batch 2 of Chang Bogo Type 209/1400 cancelled.

Other shipyards (state or private owned) are not on the same level as PAL, and ive my doubts that they are capable to perform MLM on warships in a decent way.
And are you serious about MLM on the Project 1331 Parchim/Kapitan Pattimura class?

A defencebudget of around 1% of the BNP isn't big, countries which take defence serious normally spend 2-3% of their BNP/GDP on defence. Defence is not for prestige or for fun, its to survive and to be taken seriously.
Thats what some people want, spending almost nothing on defence so our armed forces will lag behind and become weak and unable to defend Indonesia in a proper way, and unable to protect our EEZ. They prefer to spend the budget on useless expensive infrastructure programs just to please the chinese contractors and companies and to create jobs for illegal chinese labourers.

 

[Ananda]

2024 is not a fixed deathline, we all know that it is impossible to meet Minimum Essential Force target at 2024 and I think that plan is also too ambitious, w

For this administration, 2024 is the fixed political date line they're promise themselves. If they don't meet this, them they are already miss twice. They miss the 2014-2019 MEF, due to first term MinDef practically useless and now they have to speed up in order to be seen they are doing something for their second term.

@Sandhi Yudha already explain well that TNI-AL operational capabilities already deteriorating, and local shipyards can't meet the speed of deterioration with their current productivity. Don't talk about Chinese, just think about how to effective control Indonesian sea lanes. Jokowi's talking about maritime focus and becoming maritime power. His administration must shown progress on this, or his legacy being risk as empty ones except building Toll Roads.

 

[ngatimozart]

No need to be rush, just build them all in our local shipyards and many old ships can also undergo MLM like Malahayati corvette. Our relation with China is not like Pakistan vs India or India vs China or South Korea vs North Korea. PT PAL also still has enough idle capacity to produce several ships simultaneously. Other state owned shipbuilder like Kodja Bahari and private owned local shipyards like DRU can also be used to do MLM on old ships like our East German corvettes.

2024 is not a fixed deathline, we all know that it is impossible to meet Minimum Essential Force target at 2024 and I think that plan is also too ambitious, we need time maybe until 2040 to reach that goal. No need to be burdent with that unrealistic MEF plan, any way it is economic problem that needs to be solved first and our defense budget has already been quite big.

I think all the remaining 5 Van Speijk frigates can still be operated until 2035 (all have undergone modernization and it includes new engine in 2000's) and we still need many big warships to assert our present in Natuna, no need to replace them now.

If your Van Speijk frigates are already 50 years old how practical do you think it would be to give them another MLU to get them to last until 2035? The costs alone will be astronomical because the ships hulls will be highly susceptible to corrosion now and it's not the type of corrosion that a bit of chipping the rust off and slapping a new coat of paint will fix. This is the rust and corrosion that eats right into the metal meaning that the metal itself is no longer fit for purpose meaning its not safe. I remember in the RNZN a young rating wire brushing rust off the inside of the hull of the Leander class frigate HMNZS Southland, and putting his wire brush right through the hull. That ship was about 25 years old and the RNZN looked after it's ships very well always doing preventative maintenance even when at sea.

So your frigates hulls will be or are closed to being absolutely beyond all repair. You would in fact have to replace all of the hull plating and probably some of the ribs. The keel may require work as well. Then there are things like internal fittings like generators, pipework, cabling, ducting and 1,001 other things that require assessing and possible / probable replacement. In the end it would be far better Value for Money for Indonesia to build new replacement frigates. Besides the hulls will be significantly quieter as well.

You are showing a lack of understanding of a few basics when you are posting on here and the impression that I getting is that you appear unwilling to learn when people correct you. I don't know why this is but I do not accept that it is a cultural thing. Both @Sandhi Yudha and @Ananda have taken a lot of time, and patience, to help increase your knowledge of how things work and why. Whilst both don't have the Defence Professional tag, their views and opinions are held in high regard by the Defence Professionals and the Moderators.

We want to see an improvement in the quality of your posts with more attention being paid to what other posters are posting, especially both Ananda and Sandi Yudha, plus Defence Professionals and Moderators. Just because it doesn't agree with your world view or preconceptions doesn't mean that it is wrong. It just means that you, like the rest of us are having our ideas challenged and by that we learn something new everyday. If you are unsure ask. There are also plenty of threads on here that will have plenty of material to help you.
Ngatimozart.

 

[swerve]

Have to agree with the above. The Van Speijk frigates were built in the 1960s, a Dutch version of the RN's Leanders. I think they've probably been updated as far as possible (e.g. replacing the steam turbines with diesels), & it's time for a dignified exit. 20 years in the Dutch navy & over 30 with Indonesia - that's more than anyone would have expected.

One's been retired, & the new Martadinata (Sigma 10514) class look like decent ships. Buying either more of them or Iver Huitfeldt derivatives, as already mentioned here, would be much more sensible than trying to extend the Van Speijks' lives further.

 

[Ahmad]

We need to rush, our 50+ years old Van Speijkklasse are worn out, equipped with obsolete sensors and weaponsystems and its questionable if the anti-shipmissiles on board are still servicable.
The SBY-administration had a great and quite well planned MEF-program in three phases which are not too ambitious. The problem is that the current Jokowi-administration messed everything up: from 2014-2020 almost nothing happen. The SIGMA 10514 program discontinued, batch 2 of Chang Bogo Type 209/1400 cancelled.

Other shipyards (state or private owned) are not on the same level as PAL, and ive my doubts that they are capable to perform MLM on warships in a decent way.
And are you serious about MLM on the Project 1331 Parchim/Kapitan Pattimura class?

A defencebudget of around 1% of the BNP isn't big, countries which take defence serious normally spend 2-3% of their BNP/GDP on defence. Defence is not for prestige or for fun, its to survive and to be taken seriously.
Thats what some people want, spending almost nothing on defence so our armed forces will lag behind and become weak and unable to defend Indonesia in a proper way, and unable to protect our EEZ. They prefer to spend the budget on useless expensive infrastructure programs just to please the chinese contractors and companies and to create jobs for illegal chinese labourers.

Well, look like Defense Minister office wants to do MLM on Parchim if we see latest Jane Defense news, even though the report doesnt say it explicitly, but we can see the tendency. It is written in the news that current Defense Minister wants Navy to delay or even revives several decommission plan of our old ships. The underlying reason of that IMO is because we need more warships to assert our present in North Natuna Sea and not to reduce them while in the same time Jokowi administration also wants to give the budget priority for our domestic industry so that we need time before the new ships can replace them all.

Chang Bogo batch 2 is not yet cancelled but it is still in limbo although the budget to build additional submarine building facility has already been approved. There is huge possibility that we are going to go ahead on that project particularly if another foreign shipyard cannot give us the similar level of TOT and work share to PT PAL like what DSME has offered. I believe none cant match DSME offer and the offer is really inline with current economic condition and our long term defense industry goals.

In term of threat level, I dont think we should spend too much on defense in the mean time since I doubt China will go to war with Indonesia over small EEZ dispute in SCS although we shouldnt appear too weak either. Another potential conflict in Ambalat is also much reduced after Malaysia shipyard is currently in trouble to produce additional 6 France design corvettes and their Air Force MRCA program is also still delayed.

Those points show that we still have much time to modernize our Navy and Air Force so that we dont need to be rush. Better to build the ships at home instead of outside so that the money can hit three objectives simultaneously which is growing our economy, growing our defense industry (which is vital for our long term security), and growing our warship fleets to maintain short of balance with China in SCS.

I dont think our massive infrastructure program is useless since we are really lag on basic infrastructure compared to our peer in ASEAN. It is due to SBY administration policy to spend too much on oil subsidy during his administration resulting in fewer infrastructure spending during his 10 years term. Not to mention our economic down fall during Asian Financial Crisis that made us spend less on infrastructure since 1998.

It is also false to say that our huge infrastructure spending benefits Chinese contractors, companies, and labors since almost all of the investment and works are conducted by our state owned companies and constructors like Adhi Karya, Wijaya Karya, Waskita Karya and so on. I only see one project that is conducted by Chinese companies which is our HSR train infrastructure from Jakarta into Bandung in which our state owned companies also involve heavily in the project like Wijaya Karya, LEN, INKA, and KAI.

Furthermore, Chinese companies investment in Indonesia is more into building smelters to create added value for our raw materials and they are doing that because we tell them that we want to ban raw material export in 2023 while nickle export itself has already been banned this year. I bet you already know that the policy has already been started from SBY administration and there is already law to support it since 2009.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Maybe the Defence Minister office wants to do MLM on the Parchims and other old vessels, but as the chief-of-staff of the navy already stated, it will be unpractical, too expensive and not really effective.

After decades of intimidation, occupying islands and modifying coral reefs into military bases by china in the Spratly Sea and looking what happened in december 2019 - januari 2020 in Laut Natuna Utara, i see china as a threat. But who am i to force you to do the same?

So after 6 years of detoriation of the navy, we can not effort to take our time to continue with wasting four more years with (re)negotiations, on holds, cancelations and 'forgot to keep some budget reserved' situations.

You blame SBY for paying too much subsidi BBM, but as we can see here

Sejarah Harga BBM Subsidi di Indonesia : Okezone Economy

Berikut ini adalah daftar kenaikan harga BBM subsidi jenis premium sejak zaman Presiden Soeharto - Energi - okezone economy

economy.okezone.com

the fuel prices increased significantly during his administration. It was step by step, because an abrupt rise of the prices will cause huge inflations and riots.

Also during SBY, investment in the infrastructure continue. The difference is that the Jokowi-admonistration put an emphasize on infrastrucuteres like tollroads and used them as a political tool to get support from all those Jokowowers. After every project finished (or partly finished) it was every time "Terima kasih bapak presiden" and "Thank mr Jokowi".... No other president abuse projects so much for propaganda as him.

It is also false to say that our huge infrastructure spending benefits Chinese contractors, companies, and labors.....

And this is just one case of 500 illegal labourers. Maybe you deny it, but there are thousands more, not only in Sulawesi-Tenggara but also in other provinces.

Waduh, Bupati Konawe Sebut Luhut Dukung Upaya Datangkan 500 TKA China

"Saya sebagai Bupati menolak sebenarnya," ujar Kery Saiful Konggoasa.

www.viva.co.id

Ekspansi Proyek OBOR Cina, Indonesia Diminta Waspadai Jebakan Utang

One Belt One Road—kini disebut dengan Belt Road Initiative (BRI)—oleh Pemerintah Cina secara resmi dan masif telah dimulai di Indonesia. Apakah Indonesia perlu waspada?

tirto.id

Daftar 28 Proyek Rp1.296 T yang Bakal 'Dijual' ke China

Pemerintah menyatakan bakal 'jualan' 28 proyek bernilai Rp1.296 triliun ke China pada KTT Kedua The Belt and Road Initiative. Berikut daftar proyeknya.

m.cnnindonesia.com

Luhut akan 'Jualan' Proyek Infrastruktur Rp1.296 T ke China

Menko Kemaritiman Luhut Panjaitan mengatakan pemerintah akan menawarkan 28 proyek bernilai Rp1.296 triliun ke China dalam KTT Belt and Road di China April ini.

m.cnnindonesia.com

This is my last attempt to show you that our current government policy is too much to please Communist China, becaue we should discuss about the Indonesian Navy and maritime developments, this become really out of topic!


Edit: Most Type errors fixed.

 

[Ananda]

The Van Speijk frigates were built in the 1960s, a Dutch version of the RN's Leanders. I think they've probably been updated as far as possible (e.g. replacing the steam turbines with diesels), & it's time for a dignified exit

Van Speijk Frigates are already long overdue for replacement. It's plan from previous Administration for them to be replaced by Sigma 10514 PKR Martadinata Class. After first batch of two, the building process for next batch being hold/delay by current administration first term MinDef. Now whether it's going to replace by Iver Based Frigates, or another batch of Sigma or Interim second hand Frigates, well nobody knows.. "yet".

TNI dan kebijakan 'investasi pertahanan': Apakah RI siap melakukan 'lompatan teknologi militer' seperti disampaikan Presiden Jokowi di HUT TNI? - BBC News Indonesia

Pengamat militer mengatakan keinginan Presiden Jokowi agar Kementerian Pertahanan melakukan investasi pertahanan untuk menguasai lompatan teknologi militer, mungkin sulit diwujudkan.

www.bbc.com

This article shows the dilemma that I already mentioned on my previous post. Jokowi's talking about changing the paradigm from defense budget to defense Investment. However what's that means ?
1. As I have put in my previous post or posts in other Indonesian related threads, building everything Locally will give huge problem due to local Industry technological learning curve is not entirely ready. You can't jump the local industry learning curve all the way. Like it or not have to do it step by step with the right established Partners that willing to help local Industry learning curve.
2. Time constraints on that, as local industry not only has to build learning curve, but also increase the productivity. In the meantime TNI assets in all three branches not only facing replacement time frames, let alone the need to increase capabilities. Further delay will continue the deteriorating trend, while again not everything can be source by local Industry within the time frame on replacing the aging assets.

Again, don't talk on Chinese threat only. With or without Chinese threat, Indonesia is huge country. Even if all TNI asset manage to be mordernised, it's still not enough to provide surveillance and patrol coverage throughout Indonesia waters and air territorial.

This delay done by first term MinDef already push Naval and Air Force readiness. TNI-AL fleets is facing obsolescence and deteriorating operational capabilities. There's limit on upgrading and modernising existing assets. You might still be able doing economics modernisation for Assets that come in the 80's like Fatahilla Corvettes, however doing modernisation from assets that come from the 60's or ex East German fleets that are not build for tropical waters..well it's pushing just to far.
And that's what the Navy Chief means on that Jane's article.

What TNI done so far only replacement of aging assets, and this already being delayed by this administration. They talk about increasing the capabilities of TNI, Jokowi's talk on Defense Investment Paradigm..
Well talk is cheap..again this administration need to shown their implementation for defense project. Are they serious on defense ??

is due to SBY administration policy to spend too much on oil subsidy during his administration resulting in fewer infrastructure spending during his 10 years term. N

This forum talk more on defense and security. But let's entertain this a bit. The whole design on trans Java Toll Roads (for example) was already being done by SBY era, however the implementation should be done by Jokowi's era, since the ground work on that has to be done by SBY, due the time it takes facing obstacles being put by Jokowi's party PDIP.

It's quite funny considering when SBY prepared the ground work, PDIP continue put obstacles. When SBY raising the fuel price (in his efforts to lower fuel subsidy), it's PDIP that put their "people" in the street doing riots. When the planning of routes being taken and preparation for Bill to support land procurement for those Toll Roads, it's PDIP put obstacles in Parliament and in the field to prolonging the process.
However when Jokowi's come to power, they put opposite face and push all the political hurdles they're making during SBY era.

The Party that champion low class people suddenly become the Party championing Investors. Well that's Politics, so don't talk as if Jokowi's and his party and supporters beyond political charade.

Back to Defense, if Jokowi's administration really serious on Defense, then they have to compromise between sourcing some from local Industry and some from overseas source including potential taking second hand assets. The local Industry still can involved with upgrading those second hand assets.
He's now talking on Defense Investment, well prove it with really shown effort to modernise Indonesian defense within his time frame. 2024 is his promises, and it's up to him to shown whether his legacy is real Defense Investment or Defense Deteriorating.

 

[tonnyc]

Note that I consider CNN Indonesia to be a tabloid. The Indonesian editorial branch has deliberately adopted a click-baity sensationalism. They are not to be considered the same as CNN. It's regrettable, because the reporters work hard, but apparently management has decided that sensationalism is more profitable.

The YouTube video is from a person with 38 subscribers. It is NOT from a credible institution or even a reporter. It must not be considered a credible source, period.

I don't consider the Widodo administration to be that different from Yudhoyono's administration. Since this is a defence forum, I'll focus on defense matters. The main reason defense sucks is because the Indonesian top brass don't have a coherent plan themselves, with factions each advocating their own pet projects. And since Ryamizard Ryacudu's pet project is that ridiculous hundred million strong citizen-soldier rising up to overthrow any invader, well, not much got done. And Prabowo's faction so far isn't looking good either, since he's also keen on leaving the KFX and also abandoning the Changbogo submarine project in favour of Russian submarines.

Until this factionalism can be brought under control, Indonesian defense planning will be remain scattershot. And no, Prabowo becoming president isn't going to fix anything either. He's still the same type of the outdated old guard. Just a different faction. If he recommits on the KFX and CBG I am willing to reexamine my evaluation of him, but so far he hasn't shown the willingness to continue someone else's plan instead of dismantling it so it can be replaced with his own.

 

[Ananda]

don't consider the Widodo administration to be that different from Yudhoyono's administration. Since this is a defence forum, I'll focus on defense matters

I'm sorry to disagree, in the matter of Defense there's substantial difference from SBY's administration and Jokowi's administration so far. I'm going to change that opinion if the rest four years of his administration, Jokowi's able to shown implementation on defense planning that his own administration put.
That's the difference, SBY's shown effort and progress to implement his administration own plan. Jokowi's administration so far still 'suck' on the implementation of his own administration planning.

If he recommits on the KFX and CBG I am willing to reexamine my evaluation of him, but so far he hasn't shown the willingness to continue someone else's plan instead of dismantling it so it can be replaced with his own

That's what a President should do. He's the one that should control his Defense Minister. Jokowi's should be able to control Ryamirzad's work flow on his first term, as does controlling Prabowo's work in his second term. This's his administration and not Prabowo's.

If Prabowo's dismantle KFX or CBG projects, then Jokowi's must make sure that there's similar projects that can be implemented within time frame left of his administration.

Personally I don't mind to left KFX and change to 'say' another 'license' manufacturing agreement with either Eurofighter Consortium, LM, SAAB or even Sukhoi or Mig if that matters. The idea of involvement with 'license' manufacturing KFX is to provide DI experience and exposures on Fighters project. Just like KAI did when they're begin their fighter exposures with license Manufacturing F-16.

Similar thing with CBG project, which give PAL learning curve for Submarine manufacturing. The Investment on PAL infrastructure for Submarine manufacturing facilities can't be waste. If then this administration decide that PAL learning curve on submarine being change from DSME to Naval Group, TKMS, SAAB or even Russian Rubin, well it's still acceptable. Although I'm curious how much effort needed to jumping PAL learning curve from DSME 209 to other designs.

Again this's still Jokowi's administration. He's now the one talking on Defense Investment. He's the one that need to take control on his Ministers work flow. SBY's choose civilian as defense ministers on both of his term. Both civilian track record in defense Development so far shown better planning and implementation then both General that Jokowi's choose as his defense ministers.
However it's Jokowi's responsibility as both General is his choice and the blame can't be just thrown on to his Ministers performance. When a company doing wrong, in the end it's CEO's blame, and not just one of his Executive. Same thing on any administration including running a country.

It's up to Jokowi's whether his legacy in defense is real Investment progress, or just an empty talk.

 

[tonnyc]

I'm sorry to disagree, in the matter of Defense there's substantial difference from SBY's administration and Jokowi's administration so far. I'm going to change that opinion if the rest four years of his administration, Jokowi's able to shown implementation on defense planning that his own administration put.
That's the difference, SBY's shown effort and progress to implement his administration own plan. Jokowi's administration so far still 'suck' on the implementation of his own administration planning.

(snip quote)
That's what a President should do. He's the one that should control his Defense Minister. Jokowi's should be able to control Ryamirzad's work flow on his first term, as does controlling Prabowo's work in his second term. This's his administration and not Prabowo's.

There is a mindset common to us that a government is hierarchical, with a king on the top ordering generals and ministers who then carry out his order. Indonesia's history reflects this, with Soekarno and Soeharto being the "king". The Reformation was supposed to take us away from this, but this means moving away from a simple hierarchy where everyone at the lower rank must follow orders from the higher up, to a practice of cat-herding coalition building. This means saying, "we'll do X your way in exchange for your overall support". Ryamizard's appointment as defense minister, and Prabowo's, are examples of this coalition building and you can see that overall Jokowi does not interfere with their decisions (barring the usual stuff like finances and diplomatic implications).

So if you say that he must control his ministers... well, okay. That means breaking the coalition bargain and losing the support of the factions they represent. In Ryamizard's case, that'd be the Indonesian Army. You don't do this unless the person is so obviously wrong that he lost the support of his own faction, and this did not happen. Ryamizard did not lose support of the Army.

Simple governmental theory saying a president or king is the ultimate authority does not actually conform to reality. Even in historical periods when monarchies are common, a king isn't all powerful and has to contend with the power of the nobles, church, merchants, and other factions. In a democracy, this is even more so. Just because the voting is done doesn't mean that everyone will suddenly march lock-step under the winner's banner.

If Prabowo's dismantle KFX or CBG projects, then Jokowi's must make sure that there's similar projects that can be implemented within time frame left of his administration.

Why? Jokowi is a civilian who admits that he has a shallow understanding of defense matters. He appoints a defense minister who, on paper, is an expert in military matters and he follows the expert's advice and plan. This is what people should do when they don't understand the field. A boss who overrides the engineer on technical matters is a stupid boss. If said expert says "this sucks, we don't need this", what reference point does the non-expert have to even know that the expert is wrong? If, for example, Prabowo decides to drop the KFX and CBG and puts forth a plan to buy Su-35 and Kilo-class submarine, by what yardstick can a regular civilian evaluate that? Keep in mind that all the technical evaluation will also be provided by the defense ministry. At most Jokowi can override Prabowo when other considerations are in play, e.g., financing the purchases or diplomatic impact of cancellations.

If Prabowo cancels those without providing alternatives and argues that there is no need for alternatives, then Jokowi will listen to Prabowo, the supposed expert.

Over all though I don't disagree with you on what should be done. A replacement of KFX with say, a comprehensive deal with Saab ala Brazil's Gripen purchase is not a bad thing. A similar deal but with Su-35 isn't bad either, though whether Russia is willing to allow the transfer of technology and significant parts production is the big question. The tech transfer plan for CBG seems sensible, and jumping to a different model from a different country would've cost us time and money, but it can be done.

Where we differ is in our expectations. You want to say it's the president's responsibility. Okay, fine, it's his. But it's not his idea to change the plan. It's people in the current defense ministry and the current top brass in the military themselves who want to change the plan. Why would the non-expert not listen to the advice of generals and air marshalls and admirals, both active and retired?

(Slight elaboration to non-Indonesians. Due to the factionalism, basically for any single project the number of detractors will outnumber the supporters. So no matter what the project is, the majority of the top brass will agree that the current plan is bad and should be canceled. What they can't agree is what the replacement should be. And if a replacement is picked, everyone else will agree that the replacement is bad and should be canceled. Navigating this is like herding cats. It's very rare that a project gets enough support for the long term. Right now I can only think of F-16 and KCR-60 that have such a support, where the pull and push is more on how many to get rather than on whether to get them.)

 

[Ananda]

you say that he must control his ministers... well, okay. That means breaking the coalition bargain and losing the support of the factions they represent

He can still control the minister without having to break up coalition. He's after all the head of coalition. If he can't do that, then he's nothing but puppet President, which he's not.
SBY's also facing the same problem, but he manage to better control his Ministers especially in the defense area. When you create coalition, the purpose not only to gain support but also to smooth your Agenda.

He doesn't have to know everything. He's civilian that are not well versed in Defense matter. However he must control the work flow of his Ministers. That's his duty as President or in this case as Coalition Head.

As you can see I'm not comparing his performance in defense toward Soeharto or Soekarno era. I'm comparing his performance toward SBY, as both facing the similar political coalition mess up. Soeharto and Soekarno were both Dictators, and work as not King but as supreme leaders. Off course everything is different on the era of both 'beloved' dictator.

What he must do as President or Coalition Head is to demand from MinDef and Top Brass what are the alternative if they want to change the plan. In area of budgeting, his administration already make progress (thanks to his Finance Ministry) on implementing multi years budgeting system. This way, supposedly the step by step progress can be monitored more efficient.
What he's to do now demand MinDef on how they are going on implementation and he has to demand from them the time table.

Again this's his administration, not his Ministers administration. He has to demand his subordinate on the delivery schedule. Yes, he has to heard his Minister and Top Brass advice on the matter of Defense or other matter that's not his expertise, even Soekarno and Soeharto listen to their assistance advises.
This is just the matter of Politics of Management.

There's seems time table for Prabowo's to visit US in the end. Perhaps this will related on finalizing F-16 and other US asset including Osprey, or Chinook. Now they're talking the delay due to COVID issue. Well in this time of age, you can finish the deals without having to come face to face. This's where the President should come, and demand the time table on implementation.
He has to demand if you don't want KFX (for example), what is your alternative in order to keep his agenda on local industry involvement or what he call now Defense Investment.

This Defense Investment already his public agenda. It's up to him to control his Minister to full fill his agenda. Again, coalition or not it's his Presidency. Don't forget, he also put one of his supporter as Prabowo's deputy. This shown he's not let everything in Defense on Prabowo's hand. He doesn't do that with Ryamirzad during his first term. Thus He actually has means to control Prabowo's. It's just matter whether he's exercise the control or not. That's why I said on my previous post (I think in Indonesian AF thread), Jokowi's know more on what's happening in MinDef because he also put his man on there.

 

[tonnyc]

@Ananda Well, on the actual "what should be done" we seem to mostly agree anyway.

As for the delay in visiting the US and finalizing the various deals, I doubt COVID-19 is the cause. I find it far more likely that the real reason is because we want to see who wins the US election first but we use COVID-19 as an excuse for the delay to avoid offending anyone.

 

[Ananda]

the delay in visiting the US and finalizing the various deals, I doubt COVID-19 is the cause. I find it far more likely that the real reason is because we want to see who wins the US election first but we use COVID-19 as an excuse for the delay to avoid offending anyone.

I tend to agree on that. I always bit worried anytime Democrats in White House toward US relationship with Indonesia.
However Bidden is Obama's VP, and Obama's administration is one Democrat's that doing well with Indonesia. Looking back even to Clinton era, they have in beginning relative good relationship with Indonesia under Soeharto even after Santa Cruz. The deteriorating mostly come 1996 onwards. Anyway I'm one of people that saying don't underestimate Trump, even tough many media already write him off.

However most of assets that being procured with US will be related to AF or Penerbad. Most related to Navy will be Euro based tech, and they should give decision on this soon. Navy condition is keep deteriorating as half of the fleet should be on retirement stage soon.

Local on line chat talk rumours on November/December decision for most Defense procurement project for time line up to 2024 (end of Jokowi's term). Let see about that.

 

[Ananda]

Just add:

Diundang, Menhan Prabowo Terbang ke AS 15-19 Oktober

Kemenhan RI memastikan Menteri Pertahanan Prabowo Subianto diundang ke Amerika Serikat (AS) pertengahan Oktober ini.

news.detik.com

Seems Prabowo's US visit will be close to November election. Who knows, perhaps he wants to close something before potential Democrats win. After all it's Democrats that put him at Black list before.