By 2036, there will be only 1 navy worth watching for growth in potential - that of Indonesia.
OPSSG, on this I'm going to be 'cautiously' optimistic. True there's long term plan for Naval Improvement on the Navy, but the problem in Indonesia is always in the Implementation.
The current MEF was the brainchild on two 'civilian' Defense Minister from Previous Admin, which also took much elements of defense planning from Soeharto era. Despite all it's short givings, many of current Indonesian projects can be trace to Soeharto regime long term planning, including the 'now' trending items in Indonesia, the Trans Java and Trans Sumatra 'Toll' highways.
Back to the Navy, from late 80's and 90's, PAL and Navy already put plan for building infrastructure for Submarine and 'Light Frigates' program. On that time, the Submarines plan was 209 based and Light Frigate was Fincantieri design based on their 2400 ton Lupo class light Frigate. There are also other projects including locally build LST, LPD, Multipurpose Replanishment Ships, Mine Hunters, and off course Patrol vessels.
The down fall of Soeharto and Economics crisis put this on hold. Later on in SBY regime, the plan being revamped as part of MEF (minimum essential force).
However there always 'tempatation' on implementation. Like Submarine procurement that being 'coloured' by insistence on some factions in Mindef and Parliamentary for Kilo that being procured not through local manufacturing as being planned.
Luckily for Submarine the factions that put 'sanity' check on procurement seems so far prevailed, which then submarine plan being procured as part of long term plan of submarine development and manufacture program that being put since Soeharto era.
However not all of the projects are in line with long term plan. Like the plan for PKR/Light Frigate. After the project being reinstated, PAL then talk again with Fincantieri and Damen on manufacture joint projects. Damen 10514 become based for PKR which then plan for #1-6 as Van Speijk replacement (which now already more than 50 years old, and already done several upgrading).
This then become an example of how implementation can go side ways. After PKR #1&2, the plan #3&4 still not being contract yet and now seems under question on 'if' going continue or not.
The idea for 'full size' frigate with either Iver Huitfeldt or Damen 'Omega' design (which used Zeven Provincien class hull), now getting tractions as Frigate which then replace Van Speijk.
Many info circulating on why this happened, from Navy not happy with PKR as frigate, PAL not happy with Damen worksharing in PKR, etc. But this again shown how long term plan can be 'boged down' due changes in implementation.
I don't have 'close' connections in Defense industry or Ministry, but with Financial Industry background I do have some talk with people in Bapenas (National Development Agency) and Ministry of Finance. People in those institution often talk on how the Mindef and TNI can changes their implementation projects even during one budget cycle year. It's not just once the Ministry of Finance told them, that since multiple budget years plan already being introduced, they should be disciplined on how to plan the budget and implementation projects.
Again this shown that the devil is always in Implementation. The defence White Books and MEF only provide 'general' directions and left open on implementation projects. Which not uncommon on the long term plan, but at least it should already prepared the study on general direction on asset specs. This from what I gather that being left open by Mindef, and resulted on various changes on Implementations projects.
Thus again, unless more disciplined on implementation projects can be more introduced by Mindef (in fact throughout all ministry in this administration), I can't hide my 'sceptics'.
Asia's Submarine Powerhouse You Might Not Know About
Just add, this article. This article writer bring some plan of 12 subs for TNI-AL. This plan already circulated on Indonesia Forums and Media.
But again, the detail is changing from time to time. From SBY era, infact from Soeharto era, the Navy already have plans to get back to 12 strong subs as in Soekarno era. Then again the implementation that always changing.
In Soeharto era in the 80's, the first two type 209, supposedly being followed by 4 other type 209, with plan 2 of them being build in German and other 2 in Surabaya. Then due to budget and other issue (including calculation of building manufacture facility in PAL), it's being put on hold.
Then in 90's to speed up the submarine learning cycle, it's plan to buy second hand 6 German type 206. This then to prepared the crew for Submarine development. Financial crisis put this on hold, even tough Indonesian crew already in German to train with 206.
Then in SBY era, the plan for more 209 also being prepared, however this time to get to #12 more faster, the are also talk to get either new build Kilo or second hand ones. Luckily those Kilo's plan can be put asside, and back to 209 development plan.
With the 209 being used as batch 1 and 2 (of 3 subs on each batch), the talk now on batch 3 & 4. This talk on batch of 3 & 4 being type 214 in my opinion the writer read too much in Indonesian forum or Media.
Since no talk on what going to be in Batch 3 & 4 (as part of example on how Indonesian defense plan always put in general and not even on what 'specs' of submarine will be) officially being put.
Will have to see on how in the end this's going to end up on batch 3&4 (if they ever be batch 3&4).
