Lembaga Ketahanan Nasional Republik Indonesia (Lemhannas RI) melalui Direktorat Pengkajian Pertahanan Keamanan dan Geografi menyelenggarakan Focus Group Di...
www.lemhannas.go.id
This is couple of years assessment, however this study from Indonesia Defense Institutions (Lemhannas) put the realism on spur of recent procurement and Local Defense Industry project. The reality that up until now Indonesia still only provide around 0.8% of its GDP toward defense. Some argue on the number cause it's not included other institutions that related to security and dual purpose projects. Still even that combine, it is still relatively small proportion compared with others in region.
The studies from Lemhannas (read rather full version from other sources) stated below 1% of GDP, TNI and MinDef will face difficulty to do regeneration of all obsolescence assets. They need at least 1.5% of GDP to keep pace regeneration with current tech and development. 2% is needed to build capabilities and capacities from present level.
Thus means the annual budget need to be increase from USD 9-10 bio range toward USD 20 bio range to keep up regeneration process of all obsolescences assets. Present 0.8% GDP on defense ,reflecting with like condition in the procurement of PPA. That need to do switching budget of at least 15-16 projects, including the long awaiting AEW Planes. Realism of not meeting abilities for complete regeneration of obsolescence assets.
Thus the TNI so far still struggling to meet all regenerations purpose on time, let alone building new capacities. On relatively term (toward other regional players) current TNI capabilities still below 60's Old Order capacity and even still not surpass 90's New Order capacity.
The progress of local defense industry (MIC) in my opinion not yet surpassing the 90's new order MIC condition, on relative term. Even in aerospace present DI just still a shadow from 90's predecessor IPTN.
This lead to realism of next stages of defense build up.
Indonesia telah menandatangani kontrak pengadaan dua unit kapal selam Scorpene produksi Naval Group, Perancis.
nasional.kompas.com
Like this plann for more Submarine after the deal of two Scorpene. It is been expected as MinDef and TNI-AL envisage 8 submarine force (9 if include old Tjakra which so far seems maintained as training Submarine). With 2 Scorpene Evolved, it is only bring to 5 submarine from current 3 DSME 1400.
Personally I'm still thinking at best they can, is to only revive Batch 2 DSME 1400. Again much due to realism of Budget. Yes they can give impression on German sub (214), or potentially Fincantieri offer of their own 212 version. However all back to availability of budget. Even using credit line, is also limited toward availability of annual budget, which being used to pay installment of those credit line.
So unless they can increase the budget toward 50% increase (bare minimum for proper regeneration), thus make USD 15 bio range and working to USD 20 bio range by end of next term. Then I don't see how they can afford more then Batch 2 DSME 1400. Well money trail talks, which is why I rather watch the sources from Finance People then those defense insiders. As in the end money talks.
Note:
USD 20 bio is actually 1.5% of current GDP. I'm not calculating 1.5% of projected next term GDP, which will be taking much more commitment from all political factions on defense. Something that I don't see happening soon. Getting toward 1.5% of current GDP in the end of next term, is already very big endeavor, not only financially, but also fiscally and political commitment.
/data/photo/2024/04/05/66100dd4f06ee.jpeg)
