True this is not a political thread, but the intent here is to show what is happening in NZ politically on the defence front. All the talk in the world about purchasing this fighter or that hardware has to be seen in this current climate, it's simply is not possible at present, the Greens can be very vocal in the local media, they have also campaigned extensively to remove the Spy bases here as well.
"The Waihopai spy base in Marlborough is being used as part of an alleged dirty tricks campaign by the United States to spy on fellow United Nations members, says Green MP Keith Locke. "
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/index.cfm?ObjectID=3198992
But the Greens are part of the Governing party at present so have some influence on defence discision making. There will be no changes to the current defence doctrine unless we have a right wing shift in september's elections.
One thing is certain, any talk of hi end fighters is pissing in the wind, F16C/D's are the most capable, widely used and polically accepted aircraft we can hope for. F22's are now costing the US over $350 million a copy, and with each cut in orders, the price goes up. The F35 looks like it is going the same way. The government, if it changes, can't afford more than about a billion for any new fighters, hence late model F16's will enable a couple of squadrons to be formed, anything more expensive will cut into numbers making them a token gesture. Remember the AF has some big ticket replacements due from 2015, at which time the fighters need to have been paid off. They are the replacements for the Hercules and the Orions, the latter is going to be expensive. Also the Macchi's if we want to continue training our pilots ourselves. The Navy too will be looking at replacing the Resolution, Manawanui and Endeavour. Going back to the 2010 to 2015 timeframe, the forces light weapons need replacing, as well as the howitzers, the Frigates will be due for their midlife refits and upgrades, and we know weapons and electronics make up half of a warships costs, so this is a big ticket item.
So to summarise, 12 to 18 new or low hour second hand F16 C/D's is the most realistic option I can see the government taking, if we have a change this year.
As an aside, governments here run 3 year terms and tend to last 2 terms on average, so we could be looking at a labour government again by the time we are due to begin planning to replace the Hercules and Orions.
Secondly, the right wing parties also have a history of running the defence forces down as well, so all the promises in opposition are just that until implemented.
