Hypothetical Forces : Transformation

[kato]

Alright, let me fill that out...

Army Corps, 1st Division

3 Panzergrenadierbrigaden
-- 1 tank btl ea (40 MBTs)
-- 1 mechanised btl ea (40 IFVs)
-- 1 motorised btl ea (40 APCs)
-- 1 Panzerartilleriebattalion ea (18 SPHs)
-- 1 Panzerpionierbattalion ea (armored eng)

1 divisional engineer regiment
-- 1 light engineer btl
-- 1 heavy engineer btl (includes bridging)
-- 1 NBC btl

1 Artilleriebrigade
-- 3 field artillery btl
-- 2 rocket artillery btl

Army Corps, 2nd Division (reserve)

6 Heimatschutzregimente
-- 4 light infantry btl ea (trucks, light vehicles)

5 Flugabwehrregimente
-- 3 Flakbattalione (each: 3 batteries with 6 guns + MANPADS)

5 Pionierregimente (for DACs)
-- 1 light engineer btl
-- 1 heavy engineer btl (includes bridging)
-- 1 NBC btl

Territorial Gendarmery

1 Stadtgendarmerieregiment
-- 1 motorised btl (40 APCs)
-- 3 light gendarmery btl (light vehicles)
-- 1 organic light engineer battalion

note: removed separate metropolitan gendarmery btl for capital, infantry units of regiment can act as gendarmery in peacetime

5 Gendarmerieregimente
-- 2-3 light gendarmery btl (depending on DAC)

SKB division

6 SKB Groups (for DACs)
-- 1 staff coy ea
-- 1 CMC coy ea
-- 1 log btl ea
-- 1 command support btl ea (includes staff for fixed sites)

2 Log rgt
-- 4 log btl ea

1 Command Support rgt
-- 5 signals btl

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not mentioned: Feldersatz - typically one btl per regiment; Military Police - one regiment with 5 btls

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That brings us to about:

- 3 tank btl : (120-140 tanks)
- 3 mechanised btl : (120-140 IFV)
- 4 motorised btl : (160-180 APC) - one btl gendarmery
- 15 flak btl : (~270 light AA guns, ~300 MANPADS)
- 24 light infantry btl
- 3 field artillery btl : (~50 howitzers)
- 2 rocket artillery btl : (~30 MLRS)
- 3 mobile artillery btl : (~50 SPH)

Add to that... let's say some 400 mortars, and 400 ATGM, spread throughout these units and about 15 gendarmery btls.

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If the above is agreeable, we could either move on to the airforce structure, or discuss options for equipment to be procured within the ground forces frame.

 

[BuSOF]

That's a nice structure right there. I don't see any flaws for the moment.

 

[kato]

Airforce, to keep it simple...

**** Airforce (actually more like **)
* Operational Command
III Air Regiment
-- 1st Squadron (Utility)
-- 2nd Squadron (VIP/Gendarmery)
-- 3rd Squadron (Fixed-Wing)
III 1st Anti-Aircraft Group
-- SAM Squadron
-- ADA Btl
III 2nd Anti-Aircraft Group
-- SAM Squadron
-- ADA Btl
* Airforce SKB Module
III Command Support Rgt (2 btl)
III Logistics Rgt (2 btl)
III Operations Support Rgt (Air surveillance, Helo base, Maintenance)

-----------------

The three air squadrons would be as following (with rough numbers):
- 1st squadron: 10 medium transport helicopters
- 2nd squadron: 8 light helos for gendarmery, plus 2 VIP/transport helos
- 3rd squadron: 2-3 fixed-wing small/medium utility aircraft, of which one would be available for VIP duty; perhaps also 2-3 small liaison/observer aircraft, something like a small 2-/4-seater Cessna.

The two anti-aircraft groups would each have four mobile AA batteries (with e.g. 6-8 Gepard each, perhaps also MANPADS launchers on light vehicles), and four SAM batteries (medium to long-range SAM). A fifth combat battery in each btl would act as security and escort for these units, and would also have MANPADS for close defense of sites. Mobile AA batteries can be detached to provide anti-air support to Army units.

-----------------

A few minor corrections and additions to post 161, the Army structure:

- as the organic artillery in the brigades is only supporting 3 btl, i'd rather move them down to 12 SPH each (36 total); other artillery as-is
- log rgts in SKB: 1st rgt provides organic btls for 1st Div; one divisional, one in each bde; 2nd rgt handles general resupply
- command support rgt primarily handles peacetime-active fixed signals sites, one btl would be EW and ELINT/SIGINT.
- artillery bde btls have security bttrs similar to those of the Anti-Air Group btls
- two of the four btls in the 2nd Karlsruhe Heimatschutzregiment are in a permanent motorised structure (with uparmored trucks and a few APCs)

Mortars:

- mechanised and motorised btls each have two SP mortar platoons (e.g. 12 tubes 120mm, in APCs; motorised gendarmery btl 81mm in APCs)
- each Heimatschutzregiment: add one mortar coy (24 tubes 120mm, towed) at regimental level, no mortars below that
- 2nd Heimatschutzregiment in Karlsruhe instead has a SP mortar coy (e.g. 18 tubes 81mm in APCs)
- gendarmery btls each have two light mortar platoons (8 tubes 81mm, pack)

total mortars with that mix... 72 SP 120mm + 30 SP 81mm + 120 towed 120mm + 180 pack 81mm (= 402 total)

edit: actually, gotta work on that last bit a bit still.

 

[BuSOF]

So it seems you've given up the idea for fighter aircraft. To go in lines with your structure:

Airforce
* Operational Command
III Air Regiment
-- 1st Squadron (Tactical Support): 12 Mi-17V, 8 Mi-24V
-- 2nd Squadron (VIP/Gendarmery): 8 plus 2 VIP/transport helos, preferably OH-58 Kiowa or simply Bell 206. Better yet if we're going completely the civilian way for that squadron we take BK-117s
-- 3rd Squadron (Fixed-Wing): 3 CN.235; 2-3 PC-12 VIP and probably some PC-6s? Some Cessnas could be operated by a private company for the state.
III 1st Anti-Aircraft Group
-- SAM Squadron
-- ADA Btl
III 2nd Anti-Aircraft Group
-- SAM Squadron
-- ADA Btl
* Airforce SKB Module
III Command Support Rgt (2 btl)
III Logistics Rgt (2 btl)
III Operations Support Rgt (Air surveillance, Helo base, Maintenance)

-----------------

The two anti-aircraft groups would each have four mobile AA batteries (with e.g. 6-8 Gepard each, perhaps also MANPADS launchers on light vehicles), and four SAM batteries (medium to long-range SAM). A fifth combat battery in each btl would act as security and escort for these units, and would also have MANPADS for close defense of sites. Mobile AA batteries can be detached to provide anti-air support to Army units.

That seems OK.

 

[kato]

Fixed-Wing attack/fighter aircraft are only shelved for now. Could still be a longterm goal, depending on development.

For 1st and 2nd Squadron:

Agree with the Mi-17V basically. There's not much else we can buy in that weight class, short of old French Super Frelons.

For the rest of 1st and 2nd, maybe a joint procurement of BK-117.
8 BK-117-A3M : military attack/utility version (1st squadron)
8-10 BK-117-B1 : police version (2nd squadron)
2 BK-117-C2 : as VIP and police utility version, large cabin (2nd squadron)

BK-117 A3M carries a HMS-controlled .50cal turret and on outriggers either 8 HOT or TOW missiles or rocket pods; alternatively to outriggers can carry 11 soldiers and a .50cal door gun.

Note: MBB helos would be problematic - MBB belongs to Orange, Hamburg state owned a quarter of the shares even. For police and VIP duty, SA-360 Dauphins ans AS350 Squirrels could be an alternative, would strengthen ties to neighboring France.

Another alternative to Mi-24V in the attack role could also be the Romanian IAR-330 with SOCAT upgrade - we're at just the right time to buy into that. SOCAT attack version carries a 20mm chin turret, 8 Spike ER and 2 rocket pods.

3rd Squadron:

I'd opt for only 2 CN.235, and maybe lease a ATR-42-200 off the commercial market in addition to that. The ATR would be used for personnel transport or VIP duty, and has extremely similar characteristics (range, dimensions, speed, MTOW) to the CN.235.

Depending on need, we could still buy a third CN.235 or second ATR-42 (in cargo config).

Don't really need the PC-12 for VIP in my opinion. A couple PC-6, say 3, and 4-5 Cessnas operated by a civilian contractor.

 

[BuSOF]

When it comes to relatively cheep fighter aircraft solution around 1995 I am thinking abouth the following options:
- MiG-29s stored at Lukhovitzy near Moscow - 10 units at about $15mln. a piece plus some additional equipment = $200mln.-$250mln.
- CF-5 undergoing an upgrade - some 15 units probably at the same price
- NF-5 also indergoing an upgrade - same quantitiy but I don't know at what price
- Some 12-14 J-35J Draken - probably at a similar price
- Mirage 5 upgraded in Belgium
- Kfir
I don't recomend the latter two solutions as they are harder to operate and Blue needs a much more experienced personnel for them.
MiG-21s come out of th equestion for the same reasons.

An interesting solution would be to acquire the czech MiG-29 in exchange for economic co-operation and direct investments in the czech economy.

 

[kato]

We can probably put off the fighters for now. Think about it 5 years later, would also open up a lot more options. And it would also give us time to "react" to development in Orange and such, i.e. buying based on what we'd have to counter.

With the helos, do we agree on the numbers?
Anywhere between 10 and 20 helos in the first squadron, for army support; around 10 helos in second squadron, for civilian purposes; 3 medium and 3-4 small fixed-wing aircraft for utility purposes in third squadron?

For first squadron, we can pretty much settle on Mi-17 - the only alternatives being French SA321 Super Frelon, or the Chinese Z-8 copy. EH101 would not be an option, couple years in the future still.
All three would have similar payload capacities (around 30-35 soldiers or 4-5 tons cargo), SA321/Z-8 a bit higher than Mi-17.

Pure Attack helo options, the realistic ones:
- Mi-24V
- IAR-330L SOCAT

Combined attack / utility / helo families (single frame type), options:

- Aerospatiale AS 565 AA/CA Panther (attack) and AS 365 N2 Dauphin (police and VIP)
- Aerospatiale AS 550 AR Fennec (attack) and AS 355 E Ecureuil 2 (police)
- PZL W3A (attack) and W3T (utility, police, VIP)
- Agusta A109LUH (attack) and A109C (utility, police, VIP)

If we'd go for "all-Mil", i'd suggest the Mi-34 as a civilian helo in addition to Mi-17 and Mi-24.
There would also be an "all-chinese" option with Z-8 copies of SA321, and various Z-9 copies of SA365/565.
French option would be SA321 (could even be picked up from commercial market), and one of the two outlined families from Aerospatiale - Dauphin/Panther (EC155 type) as the heavy option, Fennec/Ecureuil (EC130 type) as the light option.

 

[BuSOF]

The SOCAT is not an attack helicopter, but a tactical helicopter with attack capabilities. In addition to that the program is not entirely domestic but draws support from Israel and France, especially the weapons suit.
The light semi-attack/ semi-transport/ semi-liaison choppers are not as nearly as good. So if we agree about the Mi-17 then the Mi-24 is the natural solution as it shares a number of systems with it. Even better - there are plenty of units available around 1995 and everything goes with them - spares, complete weapon packages, ground support. Most important - it's battle proven, the SOCAT is not.
P.S. I thought the BK-117 is manifactured in Donauwoerth, so Green 1?!

 

[kato]

P.S. I thought the BK-117 is manifactured in Donauwoerth, so Green 1?!

Yes, but due to the split between Orange and Green 1, the design of the BK-117 (and Bo-108) would have been likely moved to MBB factories around Hamburg in the 80s. MBB would likely have withdrawn major "modern" assets to "safe grounds", with the Donauwörth maybe continuing to produce the Bo-105, or something like that.

This political split - with the repercussions on the companies - makes it rather difficult to say who produces what, within Germany at least.

 

[BuSOF]

Well, in that case I would choose either Bo.105 or A.109.
Plus I would send a group of 16 officers for fighter conversion in Green 1 right away.
I would also add 2 or 3 Gulfstream business jets with jamming pods.

 

[kato]

In that case, i'd propose...

1st Squadron: 12 Mi-17V, 8 A109-LUH
2nd Squadron: 16 A109C (unarmed), 2 Mi-17V (unarmed)
3rd Squadron: 2 CN-235, 1 ATR-42-200, 3 Gulfstream IV (2 ECM, 1 VIP), 4 PC-6
4th Squadron: 16-20 pilots for training abroad, no aircraft for now.

Total procurement cost for that package would run around 450 million dollar including maintenance contracts, i'd suspect.

Medium-term, i'd budget roughly the same again for later procurement of a small squadron of fighter aircraft and additional medium aircraft (CN-235/ATR-42).

 

[BuSOF]

In that case, i'd propose...

1st Squadron: 12 Mi-17V, 8 A109-LUH
2nd Squadron: 16 A109C (unarmed), 2 Mi-17V (unarmed)
3rd Squadron: 2 CN-235, 1 ATR-42-200, 3 Gulfstream IV (2 ECM, 1 VIP), 4 PC-6
4th Squadron: 16-20 pilots for training abroad, no aircraft for now.

Total procurement cost for that package would run around 450 million dollar including maintenance contracts, i'd suspect.

Medium-term, i'd budget roughly the same again for later procurement of a small squadron of fighter aircraft and additional medium aircraft (CN-235/ATR-42).

There is really no point in mixing fully potent tactical choppers with pretend-to-be attack helicopters. If there is a need for airborne anti-tank capability go straight for Mi-24, but otherwise the Mi-17V is capable of using up to 6 rocket pods or gun pods, bombs etc. so there is really no need for the attack Agusta. Modifying your proposal I would say:
1st Squadron: 16 Mi-17V
2nd Squadron: 12 A109C (unarmed)
3rd Squadron: 3 CN-235 (or 3 ATRs, I believe there is a militarised cargo variant), 3 Gulfstream IV (2 ECM, 1 VIP), 4 PC-6
4th Squadron: 16-20 pilots for training abroad, no aircraft for now.
Government-contracted air company to provide services other than gendarmery support (2nd Squadron). Another possibility is to add two ELINT/EW CN.235s in exchange for the ECM Gulfstreams and the VIP G.IV to be operated by that company.

 

[kato]

Alright, that sounds good with the helos then. I'm gonna switch back from PC-6 to PC-12, explained below.

I'd opt for the ATR-42F-300 paramilitary cargo aircraft. Downside: Unlike the CN-235, the ATR-42F can only load from a side door, not a rear clamp door / ramp. Unless we're planning to deploy light vehicles (one at a time) by air though, that wouldn't be decisive. The ATR-42 can be converted between cargo and passenger configurations within one hour.

Having a company configure a ELINT, ECM or signals outfit that could be placed in the ATR probably wouldn't be that pricy, same with fashioning them with one or two pylons for external pods (the same has been done with the MPA variant since then).

The aircraft itself can be picked up from the commercial market pretty much, the differences between the militarized ATR-42F and a civilian ATR-42F Cargo that is used by plenty of overnight cargo airlines are rather minor and refittable.
Altogether, would probably come out at the same price as buying a similar amount of CN-235.

We could buy even four such multi-role aircraft, then decide not to procure the Gulfstreams, and have our PMC partner operate one or two Gulfstream IV for VIP purposes.
That would bring 3rd squadron to: 4 ATR-42F (multi-role), 4-6 PC-12.

If we need a tactical air transport capability, we'd be better served with larger C-160, e.g. from Green 1, either instead of or in addition to the ATR-42F. As we do not have any paratrooper forces though (outside special forces, which wouldn't need to be inserted at company-strength), the capabilities of such an aircraft would not really be needed.

The PC-12 would be used for SOF insertion, and liaison purposes, including abroad within Europe. The PC-12 would be preferred over the PC-6 due to its long range.

 

[BuSOF]

Generally I agree with most of the things. But when it comes to the light turbo-props I do have my doubts about writing off completely the PC-6s. I sugest a mix of 7-8 PC-6s and PC-12s, like 3 PC-12s and 4-5 PC-6s or split even in 4+4. There is also the possibility for M-28s as the PZL share the same engine but if we want to keep the inventory form one company then I prefer Pilatus 6s and 12s.

 

[kato]

M-28 instead of PC-6 or instead of PC-12? Data (range, payload) would suggest PC-6 to me, i.e. in addition to the PC-12 i gave.

We could also e.g. pick up some Do-28D-2 (Do-128-2) instead from the used market, e.g. the 4 offered by Green 1 (post #7). These would be about 15 years old.

edit: we could also maybe add perhaps 5-6 (cheap) Bo-105 from that package as an addition, as the Mi-17 and A109 are both rather large helos. Say as escorts and scouts primarily.

 

[BuSOF]

M-28 instead of PC-6 or instead of PC-12? Data (range, payload) would suggest PC-6 to me, i.e. in addition to the PC-12 i gave.

We could also e.g. pick up some Do-28D-2 (Do-128-2) instead from the used market, e.g. the 4 offered by Green 1 (post #7). These would be about 15 years old.

edit: we could also maybe add perhaps 5-6 (cheap) Bo-105 from that package as an addition, as the Mi-17 and A109 are both rather large helos. Say as escorts and scouts primarily.

My sugestion was to order M-28s instead of the PC-6, but the plane could also replace the PC-12. I wouldn't recommend the Do.28 as the previous 3 types share the PT-6, which is probably the most widely used turbo-prop engine and the Dornier doesn't. My first chouce would be to order Pilatus mix, second - to order Bryzas and the third to order planes from both companies.

As for the helos I think that two types are enough. So if we need Bo.105 then it's probably better to pass the A.109s together with some light training helicopters like Schweizer to the private contractor company and buy about 15 Bo.105 second-hand.

 

[kato]

Hmm, in that case, lets fix that at...

1st Squadron: 16 Mi-17V
2nd Squadron: 12 A109C
3rd Squadron: 4 ATR-42F multirole, 6 PZL M-28
4th Squadron: (pilots only)

hmmm... next thing, bases.

I think we agreed on a single primary airbase? I'd work it as following...

Base A : 1st Sq (10 helos), 3rd Sq (8 aircraft), 4th squadron (administrative base)
Base B : Det 1st Sq (6 helos), Det 3rd Sq (2 M28); Special Forces Base
Base C : 2nd Sq (6 helos); primary gendarmery heliport
Base D : Det 2nd Sq (3 helos); support for gendarmery in East
Base E : Det 2nd Sq (3 helos); support for gendarmery in South

Base A would be the primary base, Base B would be somewhere "out in the country", directly connected with the Special Forces. Base C could be identical with Base A, but also use a second small airfield somewhere around the capital, perhaps with a larger Gendarmery base there as well.
Bases D and E would be very small, just heliports out in the country. Basically forward-deployed gendarmery air support. C, D and E could also be simply general civilian airfields.

 

[BuSOF]

Yes, that works fine. I think the detachment of two Bryzas at the special forces facility isn't really needed. The country is small, so we could leave them at the main air base and detach them when needed, not permanently.

Actually is there a possibility to switch from ATR.42s to Dornier 328s?

 

[kato]

Do-328:
passengers - 30-33
useful load - 3,450 kg

seems a bit small to me? (~75% load/passengers compared to ATR-42 or CN-235)

Only positive thing about Do-328 would be that we would have ... err... at least 5 airports we could operate them from without any chances (the Do-328 is purpose-built to a certain 14-ton MTOW limit, which a number of our airports have).

Hmm, one idea?
We could have a state-run small airline with its own civilian nominal ATR-42 and Do-328, which we could err... have a planned seize on in wartime.

 

[kato]

One note:

I've gone over the numbers given for Orange and Green 1 (page 1/2).

Not revising them, but some update of sorts, call it "intelligence about Orange's forces":

• all 14 "field" brigades of Orange are equipped with Leopard 2A4 (600 active, 400 reserve).
• in addition, Orange has 8 territorial brigades equipped with a total of 600 Leopard 1A5.
• the airforce of Orange currently consists of 8 (combat) wings - out of 12 after split, after merge with naval aviation; two fighter wings (F-4F/ICE), two strike wings (Tornado), one CAS wing (Alpha Jet), one recon wing (RF-4E), one naval strike wing (Tornado), one naval wing (Atlantique).
• Orange is planning to reequip the CAS wing and recon wing with Tornado sometime in the next two years, bringing the aircraft in service to ~180 Tornado + ~70 F-4F/ICE.
• In addition, Orange currently operates 15 Breguet Atlantique that could be used as light bombers.

"Intelligence from Green 1":

• Green 1 operates two fighter and two strike wings equipped with Tornados and one CAS wing with Alpha Jet, also used for recon.
• Green 1 also has a functional fighter wing equipped with F-4F, which will be disbanded when the aircraft are sold; additionally there are about 50 Starfighters in stocks which are waiting to be scrapped.
• The F3/ADV upgrade for half the Tornados is progressing well
• Green 1 will likely enter the Capability Sustainment Program (CSP) next year with the UK, which will make its Tornados capable of carrying AMRAAM and ASRAAM, along with pressuring local modifications in that direction, with a likely full AMRAAM capability obtainable around year 2000. A large ASRAAM order is considered by Green 1, likely to be ordered around 1997. Parts of the ADV upgrade and CSP are considered for transferal to the 48 strike wing Tornado IDS as well, in particular ASRAAM of course.
• Green 1 has redeployed 2 of its 4 Hawk into likely approach vectors from Orange relatively close to the border area, also covering part of Blue (in the east); the other 2 battalions plus 2 Roland battalions are covering strongpoints in the rest of the country.
• Green 1 is pondering a locally made I-Hawk improvement and is worming its way towards at least PAC-1 missile sales from the US. Additional Roland are being built locally.

edit: I'm prepping a defense brief on the forces of at least Orange, perhaps also Green 1 and Green 2, i.e. some on their organization and equipment.

edit: no PAC-1 for Green 1, duh