Hypothetical Forces : Transformation

[BuSOF]

Do-328:
passengers - 30-33
useful load - 3,450 kg

seems a bit small to me? (~75% load/passengers compared to ATR-42 or CN-235)

Only positive thing about Do-328 would be that we would have ... err... at least 5 airports we could operate them from without any chances (the Do-328 is purpose-built to a certain 14-ton MTOW limit, which a number of our airports have).

Hmm, one idea?
We could have a state-run small airline with its own civilian nominal ATR-42 and Do-328, which we could err... have a planned seize on in wartime.

The reason I have been thinking about the Dornier Do.328 and the BK-117 is that these are german products. We have cleared the option for the BK-117, but I thought that with an order for Dorniers we could gain some sweet off-set.
Anyway I still thing a fighter unit of around 12-14 MiG-29s is really needed. What are the chances for a russian debt to us that could be paid off that way?

 

[kato]

Chances for Russian debts not that bad i'd say.

However, one must take into account that we have a large petroleum-dependant chemical industry which will need some stable large oil source almost assuredly (even if we don't need oil for energy purposes) - and Russia would be a big player in that regard, as would be France err Pink.

Mmm... i'm actually still pondering whether to bring East Germany into play in the whole thing. They could provide some inroads into Russian weaponry for us, but once we're going into a 5-way scenario this whole thing gets rather complicated.

I'll prep the defense briefs on Orange and Green 1 first before deciding to set anything in that direction. Looks rather interesting so far, the ground forces of Orange are not as overwhelming against ours as it would seem at first glance, and Green 1, in particular their airforce, are a pretty strong partner.

 

[kato]

Alright, first off the defense brief on our primary opponent, Orange.

I'm not revising any numbers from earlier posts in this, just sorting them into some sort of structure. The Navy of Orange isn't really of any concern to us, as we don't even have any coastline.

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Structural:

Orange is formed by three large states:
- Hessen-Rheinland (39,700 km², 9.9 million people)
- Nordrhein-Westfalen (34,100 km², 18.0 million people)
- Niedersachsen-Schleswig (64,500 km², 13.3 million people)

The border region between Orange and Blue and Green 1 is entirely formed by the state of Hessen-Rheinland. The capital of Orange is located in the border region between Hessen-Rheinland and Nordrhein-Westfalen.

Army:

The Army of Orange is structured into a "field component" and a "territorial component". The "territorial component" is split into two defence districts of similar size - North (DDN), identical to Niedersachsen-Schleswig, and South (DDS), consisting of Nordrhein-Westfalen and Hessen-Rheinland. South can be further subdivided between these two states.

The "territorial component" is split into wartime divisions, however it is mostly occupied with regional defensive posturing.

Each Defence District has as its basic units two territorial divisions, with one composed of a Mechanized Brigade and two Motorised Brigades and the other composed of two Light Motorised Brigades and three Light Infantry Regiments. For DDS, these are 5th and 7th Division respectively; for DDN, these are 4th and 8th Division respectively.

DDS, in addition to that, takes command of 6th Division in wartime, a Mechanised Division (two Mechanised, one Armor Brigade) which is earmarked for protection of the strategic Ruhr region. 6th Division would very likely not play any offensive role. This Division only has one Mechanised Brigade active in peacetime, other units are reserve.

The "field component" has three divisions: 1st Armor Division stationed in DDN, and 2nd Mechanized and 3rd Armor Division stationed in DDS. 3rd Armor Division has only one Armor Brigade active, the remainder of its units are reserve.
At peacetime, the region facing the border has 2 Armor and 2 Mechanized Brigades; at wartime, the field component would strengthen to 3/3 there.

Additionally, on Corps-level there would be a anti-tank helicopter regiment (48 helicopters) and one mobile air-defense regiment (18 Roland, 24 Gepard) stationed in DDS - and the same units again in DDN.

The units of the "field component" are equipped with Marder 1A3 as IFVs and Leopard 2A4 as MBTs throughout the Armor units, Leopard 1A5 in Mechanized units. Units of the "territorial component" field mostly truck-mounted troops as well as several dozen M113 APCs, and M48A2 in tank units mostly; the two Mechanized Brigades of the "territorial component", as well as 6th Division in the Ruhr region, are equipped at "field component" levels.

At wartime, it is unlikely Orange would be able to make much more available than the two divisions stationed in the South (leaving two divisions to defend the rest of the country in combination with the territorial units there), and would likely rely on its airforce primarily, along with its fully airmobile paratrooper brigade.

Airforce:

The Airforce of Orange currently consists of eight wings. Two of these are permanently assigned to support the Navy. The remaining seven wings consist of:
- two fighter wings (with 32-36 F-4F/ICE each)
- two strike wings (with 36 Tornado IDS each)
- one recon wing (with 30 RF-4E)
- one CAS wing (with 50 Alpha Jet)

The intermediate target is to retire the RF-4E and Alpha Jet. Both wings equipped with those would then be equipped with Tornado IDS stemming from the disbandment of two strike wings. All wings are then likely to take a unified structure with two squadrons of 18 aircraft each.
Restructuring of Recon and CAS wing with Tornados is dependant on the current procurement of podded recon and laser targeting equipment, likely to be fully achieved within two years.

Orange has significant air transport capabilities, with two transport wings equipped with some 42 C-160D in total.

The Navy-assigned wings are a helicopter wing, and one wing holding the 18 active Breguet Atlantique.

The Airforce also holds control of three SAM regiments; within these, four battalions are currently equipped with conventionally-armed Nike Hercules, another three with I-HAWK, and two with Roland, primarily for defending airfields. The Nike Hercules are slowly being replaced with Patriot PAC-1.

Internal Structure (TOE):

An Armored Division consists (in combat units) of two Armor Brigades and one Mechanized Brigade as well as one Artillery Regiment and one SPAAG Regiment.
A Mechanized Division has the same structure, with a second Mechanized Brigade and only one Armor Brigade.
The first type of Territorial Division consists of one Mechanized Brigade and two Territorial Brigades of the 5X-series. The second type consists of two Territorial Brigades of the 6X-series and three infantry regiments.

ToE:

(x6) Arm Bde : 95 Leopard 2A4, 23 Marder, 6 PzMrsr, 32 M113, 18 M109
(x8) Mech Bde : 41 Leopard 1A5, 58 Marder, 12 PzMrsr, 48 M113, 18 M109

(x4) Terr Bde 5X : 54 M48A2, 30 M113, 18 105mm howitzers
(x4) Terr Bde 6X : 13 M48A2, 18 105mm howitzers

(x6) Inf Rgt : 18 120mm mortars
(x4) Art Rgt : 18 M110, 18 FH-70, 16 LARS

Total Holdings:

580 Leopard 2A4, 320 Leopard 1A5, 360 M48A2 (most stocked), 610 Marder; 250 M109, 100 FH-70, 100 M110, 80 LARS, 80 M101; 700 M113

edit: a 4th Art Rgt, for 6th Division.

---

The ground forces in Hessen-Rheinland (the border state) consist of:

- 2+1 Armor Brigades
- 2+2 Mechanized Brigades
- 0+1 Territorial Brigade 5X
- 0+1 Territorial Brigade 6X
- 1+1 Artillery Regiments
- 0+2 Infantry Regiments

notation: active+reserve

Total Holdings of these forces (wartime level):

MBTs: 285 Leopard 2A4, 164 Leopard 1A5, 67 M48A2 (peacetime: 190 Leopard 2A4, 82 Leopard 1A5)
IFVs: 301 Marder, 288 M113 (peacetime: 162 Marder, 160 M113)
Mrtr: 66 PzMrsr, 36 120mm mortars (peacetime: 36 PzMrsr)
SPAr: 126 M109, 36 M110, 32 LARS (peacetime: 72 M109, 18 M110, 16 LARS)
FArt: 36 105mm howitzers, 36 FH-70 (peacetime: 18 FH-70)

---

If anything's unclear with that, raise your voice.


EDIT: Numbers heavily changed.

 

[BuSOF]

I don't really think that the DDR poses such problem for the whole security picture. On the contrary. We got option one:

1) DDR gets integrated into Orange. In that case Orange will be too involved in trying to assimilate that vast part so it will not have the resources and the capacity to restructure it's armed forces for reconquering the whole former territory.

2) DDR stays independent. So it will be in the same situation that Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary etc. were in at that time. Blue could very well use that for ecomomical integration. Blue could provide financing, the DDR has big industrial capacity with highly professional personnel and will be desperately trying to preserve those in a situation of financial shortage.

 

[kato]

I'm leaning towards an independant DDR right now, although it would likely encompass West Berlin by that point (... unless Berlin would be independant as well, hmm).

 

[BuSOF]

I didn't realise until now, but the numbers of of MBTs etc. are far higher, than they were some pages before. How come?

 

[kato]

They are? Hmm... i thought i kept the numbers as i posted them before... oh wait.

Damn, didn't notice i had complete numbers in post #84.

Alright. Let me revise the above post (183) to match those numbers... done.

I've mostly changed the equipment of individual units. The only change in unit numbers is a 4th Artillery Regiment, for 6th Division in the Ruhr area.

 

[kato]

Defense Brief for Green 1

(hope i have the numbers right on the first try this time!)

Green 1 is a singular, centralized state. Green 1 is the only one of the ex-German states to have merged its field and territorial armies. The army has also removed the division level in essence. Only one division command remains, for the mountain infantry.

The remainder of forces has been split into six brigade combat teams. Three of these are officially mechanized brigades, with heavy armor support, while the other three are heavy infantry brigades. The infantry brigades are, for the most part, a defensive but mobile unit with some maneuver forces.

ToE:

Going with a more typical form...

Add a number of AT forces (with Jaguar, one platoon per Bde) and recon forces (Luchs, one coy per Bde) to below. And of course support forces.

3x PzGrenBde

• 2x PzGrenBtl (ea: 13 KPz, 23 Marder, 5 M113, 6 PzMrsr)
• PzBtl (41 KPz, 5 M113)
• PzGrenBtl (34 Marder, 5 M113, 6 PzMrsr)
• PzArtBtl (18 M109)
• FlaKPzBtl (22 Gepard, 5 M113)

KPz: Leopard 2A4 in two brigades, Leopard 1A5 in third

3x InfBde

• 2x PzGrenBtl (ea: 13 KPz, 28 M113, 6 PzMrsr)
• 3x InfBtl (trucks)
• ArtBtl (12 FH70, 12 120mm mortars)

KPz: Leopard 1A5 in all brigades

2x ArtRgt

• ArtBtl (18 M110A2)
• RakArtBtl (16 LARS)

FlaKRgt

• 2x FlaKBtl (ea 24 Bofors 40mm/L70)

GebJgDiv

• 2x GebJgBde
  • 3x GebJgBtl (ea: 18 Bv-206, 6 120mm mortars)
• 1x GebArtBtl (18 M56)

2x FlaRakGruppe

• 2x FlaRakGeschwader (ea: 15 Hawk)
• FlaRakGeschwader (15 Roland)

HFlBde

• HFlRgt (37 Bo-105P/PAH-1, 5 Bo-105M)
• HFlRgt (26 Bo-105M, 14 UH-1D)

Airforce

• 2x JG (ea: 24 Tornado ADV, 2 Do-28)
• 2x JBG (ea: 24 Tornado IDS, 2 Do-28)
• 1x JBG (24 Alpha Jet, 7 HFB-320, 3 Do-28)
• 1x LTG (18 C-160, 6 Do-28, 8 UH-1D)

Stationed near the border with Orange and Blue:
one PzGrenBde for offensive-defensive purpose, with a second within "response range" (for both: the two with Leo 2A4); one inf bde for defensive purpose; the HFlRgt with the AT helos for support.

 

[BuSOF]

Alright. When I saw the huge number of MBTs in the border region I was just about to say that Blue needs at least 60 Anti-tank helicopter gunships. Even after you revised the numbers I would say that a squadron of 24 Mi-24VPs is crucial. Another possibility is to order some 24 MI-17s equipped with Vyhr ATGMs and acquire a squadron of at least 12 Su-25 Frogfoot. I don't really think that acquiring for example some 40 PAH-1s is an option.

 

[weasel1962]

Re:

Deleted

 

[kato]

One thing of note is that essentially we'd stand together with Green 1 there. Green 1 would have at least two Mechanized Brigades (overstrength) and around 40 anti-tank helicopters ready to flank Orange forces if they attack us.

But i agree. We'd need at least some organic capability there to reach out and stop those tank battalions before they reach the border.

Measure 1:
- We should definitely buy Malyutka-2 or Vikhr for all our Mi-17. Perhaps a few more Mi-17 as well.
Measure 2:
- dedicated anti-tank helo... hmm, how about an additional 12 A109LUH - to keep it simple, as we already operate the type. and try to get Hellfire ATGM for them (can carry 8 in AT role according to manufacturer), in the meantime would be armed with 8 HOT.

Frogfoots... hmm, would be a bit susceptible to Orange air defence. Primary target for them and all that - look how long Georgia managed to operate their Su-25 squadron.
Perhaps our pilot training squadron, colocated in Green 1, could lease a squadron of Alpha Jet there once enough pilots are available. Just as a relatively immediate light strike / CAS capacity.

 

[BuSOF]

Measure 1:
- We should definitely buy Malyutka-2 or Vikhr for all our Mi-17. Perhaps a few more Mi-17 as well.
Measure 2:
- dedicated anti-tank helo... hmm, how about an additional 12 A109LUH - to keep it simple, as we already operate the type. and try to get Hellfire ATGM for them (can carry 8 in AT role according to manufacturer), in the meantime would be armed with 8 HOT.

Frogfoots... hmm, would be a bit susceptible to Orange air defence. Primary target for them and all that - look how long Georgia managed to operate their Su-25 squadron.
Perhaps our pilot training squadron, colocated in Green 1, could lease a squadron of Alpha Jet there once enough pilots are available. Just as a relatively immediate light strike / CAS capacity.

Well. Best option would be the Mi-24 in the latter versions. VP is the best choice. The Mi-17 would to some extend fulfill its tasks if we dont buy 24s. Not the same thing but it'll do. One positive thing would be versatility around one type. Armed Agustas are not nearly as good and are actually rudimentary anti-tank assets when you wanna pretend that you're doing something about it and actually aiming at cutting down costs. Plus Hellfires?! I don't think that considering the situation the US Congress would agree such a deal.

The same thing as for the Agustas go for armed Alpha Jets. The only true anti-tank jets are the A-10 and the Su-25 and I don't think that a deal for A-10s is possible at that point.
Su-25 is remarkable:
- it was constructed to be used from rough airstrips with minor maintenance
- it was intended to be used by mobilised civilian pilots
- it is tremendously maneuverable
- it could also be used in counter-helicopter role
- it could use virtually any king of fuel, INCLUDING REGULAR CAR FUEL for up to 1 hour
- it is far more easily conceived than fighter jets
- the situation in Gerorgia from a month ago only shows georgian incompetence, not the full spectrum of possibilities of the Frogfoot.

 

[weasel1962]

Re:

Deleted

 

[BuSOF]

The country is too densely populated and that makes extensive mining activity impossible. Most of the border areas are trully urbanised.

 

[kato]

The airforce's counter-air ability is decidedly weak with F4Fs with no plans for replacements...

For the short term sufficient against our and Green 1's forces - these are ICEs, with AN/APG-65 radar and AMRAAM.

The orange forces do not appear to have many engineering units (as far as current orbat appears).

I've left out the engineering forces in that orbat. Consider at minimum a engineer regiment for each division, plus another one or two at corps level.

Su-25 is remarkable:

However, there's one question: Where would we get them from - in particular Su-25T, as we want to lug around more than just S-8 rockets and 500kg unguided bombs? Because strafing, firing rockets and dropping unguided bombs is something the Alpha Jet would do just as well.
The only available source for Su-25T would be Russia. Which hasn't sold any really - as they only have a scarce number themselves - namely, in total two Su-25T to Eritrea in the last 10 years, that's all.

I wouldn't worry about fuel btw. We have the remains of CEPS on our hands.

Armed Agustas are not nearly as good and are actually rudimentary anti-tank assets when you wanna pretend that you're doing something about it and actually aiming at cutting down costs.

The A109 has:
- better performance at altitude
- 1/2 the useful load, with 1/4 the MTOW
- higher range (more sorties before refueling at FRP!)
- far superior ECM and ECCM
- a similar carrying capacity in AT-specific role

 

[kato]

The country is too densely populated and that makes extensive mining activity impossible. Most of the border areas are trully urbanised.

Agree there. Primarily between Orange and Blue, there's a few remote possibilities for that between Orange and Green 1.

 

[BuSOF]

Both the Su-25 and Mi-24 are very well armoured, the Alpha Jet isn't that well and the Agusta isn't at all armoured.

The reason that nobody has ardered advanced Su-25s is that no one really needed them and the possible serious customers were cutting down defense funds during that period. So if Blue really wants to acquire a potent anti-tank force and is serious about it there is no problem. Option 1 is second hand units from ex USSR or ex-Czechoslovakia. Option 2 is new built aircraft which also isn't a problem because around 1995 the russian military production companies were aggressively marketing new upgraded MiG-29s and Su-25s. What was later found out that the presidents of Rosoboronexport were planning to take the money for themselves. But that doesn't change things. Same thing goes for the aramaments.
I mentioned fuel consumption as a show of versatility, not because of fuel shortage concerns.

As for the Agustas and Mi-24s when comparing them you could aswell think about a comparison between an aussie Bushmaster and a true IFV. Puting ATGMs on a chopper doesn't automatically turn it into a combat machine.

 

[weasel1962]

Re:

Deleted

 

[BuSOF]

weasel, I suppose you don't realize that it's not the Iraqis that mine their own country. Plus I don't think they're really happy getting the main victims of that campaign of terror.
In Blue we are talking about a modern western society used to it's superb infrastructure. I don't really see how the population would be very keen of blowing up its Autobahns and powerplants etc.
About the capabilities of the Frogfoot the US pilots from Aviano, Spangdahlem, Lakenheath, Kingsley Field etc. that practiced against them in my country don't share your opinion on their weaknesses.

 

[kato]

Well, part of the infrastructure can and will be blown for defensive purposes of course.
Mostly along the border though. Or in strategic chokepoints, if the enemy gets close. That's what Blue has those demolition forces for.

Powerplants? I doubt either Blue or Orange would want e.g. the Biblis nuclear plant right on the border blown.

BuSOF:
Wrt to the US airforce, they have relatively little experience with a semi-integrated low-altitude air defense system (which everyone in this scenario has). And they seem to rate anything that remotely approaches that as worthy of a overwhelming DEAD attack ahead of any CAS strikes.
Israel, for example, has a lot more experience there, and they're essentially relying on heavy ECM and ECCM in any strike missions into such territory.