Flanker Export Thread

Toblerone

Banned Member
We are not Flanker fanboys, it just seems weird that the indonesians would add yet another type of aircraft from another nationin low numbers to their small hodgepodge airforce.

Personally I'd like to have a squadron of su-35 if they are to have the Irbis-E. I bet it will pay dividends patrolling over the ocean. And if they don't have enough money then just get some su-30 or upgrade their other aircraft.

What is the approximate cost of the Gripen compared to the su-35? The su-35 is probably cheaper now that the ruble is low.

Anyway, I think we will soon find out their decision.
 

Haavarla

Active Member
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  • #282
Havaarla, look, it's obvious now that you have no intention of spending the time and effort to understand the context with regard to Indonesia and the Southeast Asia region. Instead you are more interested in defending the Su-35 sale.

E.g., you say that if Indonesia chose to to upgrade their Flanker fleet they will be able to get the same upgrade package and end up with very similar aircrafts. Guess what, you are right, and still misses the point, which is that so far they have not.

E.g., you tried to contrast the multiple Flanker types with diversifying into different types of jets from different countries and different factories. Nobody says it's better, man. And yet Indonesia does exactly that. Part of it is due to lack of coherent procurement plan, but part of it is because Indonesia runs a heavy/med/light mixed fleet. When Toblerone asked why Saab offered Gripen, that's because Gripen can slot into the light fighters niche. And why does Indonesia use light fighters? Because a centralized heavy fighter squadron can not respond to incidents far away in a timely manner even when it is technically within range. And if you do dispersed bases that can intercept in a timely manner, you can make do with a more economical aircraft with less range and payload.

Anyway, at this point I am repeating myself. So I will bow out. If you want to discuss the Flankers in the context of Indonesia, feel free to go to the Indonesian Air Force thread. You probably don't care about it though, other than to make sure that the Flanker name is not besmirched somehow. Again, Flankers are very good aircrafts and no one is trying to besmirch the Flanker's reputation.
Now hold it! Why the sour face?
Look, It makes little value to debate the Indonesian AF structure at this point anyway. We do not know how it will look it the near and distant future.

They might as well close down one or two AB and concentrate all on one big AB(See Norway AF..) for all we know.
Running an Airforce does not come cheaper by time.

Its not about procuring the Su-35S cause its a Russian heavy jet.
Its much more about cost, which is what my point was about all along.

The Su-35S is rolling off KnAAZ as we speak, and there will most likely be several AF fielding it in the the next few years.
That means comodity and spares parts for the future.
Who knows how long the Su-35S production line will last.

Like Toblerone says, the Ruble is very low and if Indonesia ever gonna buy it, the time is right.
Edit: I'm not even sure if KnAAZ is exporting the Su-27SKM anymore..
Su-35S might be the only singel crew Flanker out there now.

I would question the cost between new build Gripen/F-16 and Flanker these days.
Granted, a Flanker would be more complex with two engines to service. They still would have only a limited numbers anyway.

And while going for a limited numbers, why not get the Su-35S, lets face it. You do get bangs for cheap bucks with it.

And the fact that they went for a light/heavy mix has more to do with accusition and timeframe than it had to do with their intended AF structure.
They bought what they could at the time.
 

Bonza

Super Moderator
Staff member
Haavarla, what is the acquisition cost for the SU-35? Not a per platform price but the REAL cost, including munitions and through-life etc? You say it's "bang for cheap bucks", got a link to costs somewhere?

No need to respond, but do treat the question as a caution against making claims without demonstrating evidence...
 

Haavarla

Active Member
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  • #284
Haavarla, what is the acquisition cost for the SU-35? Not a per platform price but the REAL cost, including munitions and through-life etc? You say it's "bang for cheap bucks", got a link to costs somewhere?

No need to respond, but do treat the question as a caution against making claims without demonstrating evidence...
Point taken.
One could speculate that the $3.1 Mill deal for Indonesia, does include the modernization of their older Flanker fleet as we debated earlier.
It could also include new weapons deal.
The $ 3.1 mil is the only figures i've seen so far.



The Russian Aerospace Force (VKS) ordered 50 Sukhoi Su-35S 'Flanker E' multirole fighters from Sukhoi in late December 2015, a United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) source told TASS-DEFENSE.

According to the source, the new order is valued at more than RUB60 billion (USD788 million) and the Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aircraft Plant (KnAAZ, a Sukhoi affiliate) will build the aircraft. Thus, it will have had its hands full until 2020. In addition to this order, the period is to see the execution of China's order for 24 Su-35S's, while the company hopes to sign a contract with Indonesia for 12 aircraft soon.

Russia orders 50 Su-35S multirole fighters | IHS Jane's 360

A US $2 billion deal for 24 fighters was reported Thursday in the Russian daily Kommersant newspaper and TASS news agency.

Russia-China Su-35 Deal Raises Reverse Engineering Issue

The Su-35s are all produced at UAC’s Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aviation Production Association plant (Knaapo) in Khabarovsk province. The governor of the province, Vyacheslav Shport, himself a former senior manager at Knaapo, told the Russian media that the orders should keep the factory busy for close to 10 years.

The sale to Indonesia was confirmed by chief marshal of aviation Agus Supriatna, who stated that between now and 2019 the country intends to spend $3.1 billion on modernization of its air force. The 12 Su-35s will replace 17 older-generation Northrop F-5s that are currently in service with the air force.

Su-35 Fighter Boosted by China and Indonesia Deals | Defense News: Aviation International News


Aug 18/2009:
The Russian government signs the SU-35’s inaugural production contract at the Russian MAKS 2009 air show. The Russian Defense Ministry has reportedly signed a contract with Sukhoi to deliver 48 SU-35s by 2015, plus an interim buy of 12 single-seat SU-27SM and 4 dual-seat SU-30M2 multirole fighters by 2011.

RIA Novosti cites “open sources” that estimate the flyaway cost an SU-35 at about $65 million. This contract should be larger, since it’s a new type that must carry the additional costs of training spares stocks, etc. Statements place the contract’s value at “over 80 billion” roubles, where RUB 80 billion is currently about $2.51 billion. The contract follows on the heels of RUB 3.2 billion (about $100 million) in capital injected into Sukhoi, and Vnesheconombank head Vladimir Dmitriyev said the national development bank would grant Sukhoi a 3.5 billion-ruble (about $109 million) loan to start SU-35 production.
 
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Bonza

Super Moderator
Staff member
We can speculate based on previous sales orders, but the accuracy of that speculation is limited by our limited knowledge of what was included in each deal, any state funded assistance granted (which from what I understand happens frequently in Russia, at least with regard to the MiG-29). Then there's servicing, weapons, simulators, training... a lot of different factors to be considered. For example there's anecdotal evidence (delivered via a USAF Colonel flying in an Aggressor squadron who was giving an open-source brief of the SU-30MKI's performance at Red Flag) that with the SU-30MKI in particular, the Russians made the Indians sent any defective engines all the way back to Russia to work on them while they deliver a replacement. If such an arrangement is true surely it has an impact on pricing as even normal engine operations without issues will require downtime for maintenance.

In any case I'm simply making the point that even careful speculation can lead us down a road that looks okay but actually has the potential to be quite inaccurate. So unless we get more concrete numbers it's very difficult to say, especially given we are talking about Sukhoi's newest, most advanced fighter aircraft on the market...
 

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
bear in mind that previous indonesian buys were also based on barter, and that one acquisition did not include any weapons fits as the indons "ran out of money"

some of these public pronouncements need to be taken with some caution as the traditional acquisition profile doesn't apply

when I was contracting I dealt with some indonesian middle men who were after various fleet fitouts

it was a nightmare to deal with - and they were overinflating the prices back to Govt
 

old faithful

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Betcha they have weapons for the SU fleet now!

One of the biggest eye openers I saw was several Infantry Bn, s on a huge parade ground doing some "boot skootin", yes, line dancing....did not see one soldier out of step. The boot skootin was a warm up for unarmed combat training, and again, what I saw, was impressive.
Never underestimate anyones capabilities. The TNI are in some ways very backward and corrupt. However, in a time of crisis, they manage to get things done, they are not restricted by the same shackles of OH&S standards or ROE as western countries.

They do play on their strengths. They might have a mixed fleet and a terrible supply chain, but if it came to it, they would manage to "jerry rig" something and somehow make it work.
 

Haavarla

Active Member
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  • #290
A little Update on Flanker export:

Ðлжир получил первые воÑемь иÑтребителей Су-30МКИ(Ð) по третьему контракту - bmpd

Algerie got their first eight Su-30MKA units from Irkut in accordance with the 2015 contract.
There could come as much as 16 more(24 total).

Kazagstan got 4-6 Su-30SM in 2016.
Belarus got 4 Su-30SM in 2016.

And straight from KnAAZ, China got the first batch of Su-35 in a contract on 24 total.


I'm still holding my breath on India ordering some Super MKI, and that large upgrade on their current MKI fleet.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The Su-25 production has officially been capped.
Although the Ulan-Ade hasn't seen production of the singel crew attack jet for the last decade bar one or two flying prototypes called Su-25SM3.

The two crew Su-25UBM has been dead for over one decade and isn't in my mind going anywhere from its crypt. Its located in Tiblisi b.t.w.

Russia halting Sukhoi Su-25 attack aircraft production | Defense Watch
There are budgetary constraints in play, especially as it's become obvious that the PAK-FA is being significantly delayed. There's also a huge existing Su-25 fleet that's in decent shape and can be upgraded. The Su-25SM3, by the way, is not "1 or 2 prototypes". A number of squadrons have been equipped with them, by upgrading their existing airframes.
 

Haavarla

Active Member
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #296
There are budgetary constraints in play, especially as it's become obvious that the PAK-FA is being significantly delayed. There's also a huge existing Su-25 fleet that's in decent shape and can be upgraded. The Su-25SM3, by the way, is not "1 or 2 prototypes". A number of squadrons have been equipped with them, by upgrading their existing airframes.
I seemed to have posted in the wrong thread.
I'll continue in the right thread.
 

wsb05

Member
There are budgetary constraints in play, especially as it's become obvious that the PAK-FA is being significantly delayed. There's also a huge existing Su-25 fleet that's in decent shape and can be upgraded. The Su-25SM3, by the way, is not "1 or 2 prototypes". A number of squadrons have been equipped with them, by upgrading their existing airframes.
Overall Fighter jets production has been down. Much of the rearement seems to have shifted towards upgrade and refurbishment.
It also seems the MOD will not be willing to invest before the new engines and other features are improved which brings forth Indian concerns around the fighter.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Overall Fighter jets production has been down. Much of the rearement seems to have shifted towards upgrade and refurbishment.
It also seems the MOD will not be willing to invest before the new engines and other features are improved which brings forth Indian concerns around the fighter.
I'd have to look at the numbers. Su-34 production, for example, is increasing. The immediate gap has been filled so Russia can field modern air groups for most current needs. A lot of the emphasis has also shifted towards better munitions, support assets (like the new pods for the Su-34), and training.
 

wsb05

Member
I'd have to look at the numbers. Su-34 production, for example, is increasing. The immediate gap has been filled so Russia can field modern air groups for most current needs. A lot of the emphasis has also shifted towards better munitions, support assets (like the new pods for the Su-34), and training.
Well it is according to bmpd live journal but I don't have the numbers.
ПоÑтавки боевых Ñамолетов в Вооруженные СиЋ РоÑÑии в 2016 году - bmpd
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
???????? ?? ???????? ????????? ???????????? ??-35 ????? ???????? ? ???? ????

Frm Interfax..seems the Russian still optimistic that Indonesia will eventually sign procurement of SU-35..Perhaps they got another info..which seems more rel8able than Indonesian local media, forum or officials..which untill this moment still can not be sure if the procurement deal will eventually closed this year.

The Russian say 12 aircraft..whille the Indonesian sources say 8 at first batch and another will procured later on to fully equip 1 squadron..

Again..for Indonesia present practices..any defense procurement talk has to be viewed 'sceptically' until they 'ink' proper procurement contract..
 
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