Does Taiwan Army need an MBT?

[gf0012-aust]

Easily, we held 1,000,000 soviets with far bigger equipment quantity/quality cap and we didn't have the ocean in our ally...

the Finnish Winter Wars is a stellar example of reference though. After all, look at what a small dedicated Finnish force did against a vastly superior (in numbers and equipment) soviet army. So a numerically superior chinese force even with the use of a missile barrage in an artillery role is going to do the required damage.

I just cannot see how any of the PLAN and PLAAF force structure is in a position to run a contested landing against the Taiwanese. They don't have the right force mix or numbers now - and their build rates don't show that they will have the right numbers of mix in the next 5 years either. Every succeeding year gives the Taiwanese an advantage - even as the defender.

 

[Gollevainen]

Agreed, the PRCs current invasion plans are mostly existing among young military enthusiast that spend to much time in internet

In fact have there been any realistic Taiwan plan in the PLA for ages now? Certainly the current build up of all military branches indicates to the opposite, amhpibious capapility is left to the backround and the focus is in the transforming the PLA into modern player in much more bigger scale than the narrow Formosan straight....

 

[Supe]

Easily, we held 1,000,000 soviets with far bigger equipment quantity/quality cap and we didn't have the ocean in our ally...

...but eventually, the Finns had to accede to the superior force and relinquish Karelia, some 10% Finnish territory and other concessions. There can be no doubt that Stalin could have taken Finland post Continuation War.

BTW: Do you recall the Finnish Defence minister of the day? Apparently he was some sort of joke within the Finnish Army for his poor stewardship of Finnish defence procurement and policy leading to the woeful provisioning of Finnish forces.

 

[tntsas]

Neh,the air force,reconnaissance and the missiles are the keypoint.
Taiwan Straits is too narrow fot the navel to survive.There are thousands of Anti-ship missile.
PLA air force will gain enough power in ten years.But now PLA can use electromagnetic pulse bomb.

 

[tntsas]

It is great for finland to hold 1,000,000 soviets.But at that time,most of good commander were killed by Stalin.I suspect finland can aslo stop the soviet army in 1945.

 

[Gollevainen]

...but eventually, the Finns had to accede to the superior force and relinquish Karelia, some 10% Finnish territory and other concessions. There can be no doubt that Stalin could have taken Finland post Continuation War.

Actually, we stop the soviet advance in 1944 (the sole/last failed strategical operation in the end of the war) and prevented them taking even more. Personally I doupt that soviets would have been able to beat us afterwards. Why else they would have stopped there and seddled for the relatively small area of Karelian penisula? Both the winterwar and the 1944 fightings are generally referedas a Torjuntavoitto (= defencevictory)

BTW: Do you recall the Finnish Defence minister of the day? Apparently he was some sort of joke within the Finnish Army for his poor stewardship of Finnish defence procurement and policy leading to the woeful provisioning of Finnish forces.

I don't have the name in hand but i can dig it out...But perhaps in some other thread, lets just stick to Taiwan in this one....funny tough, suprisingly many thread which i participate turns in to discussion about Finland...wonder why

 

[Big-E]

Easily, we held 1,000,000 soviets with far bigger equipment quantity/quality cap and we didn't have the ocean in our ally...

Even USCM cannot land 200,000 troops in single beach-head.

Talking about "gurellian" warfare is somewhat weird to me personaly as our mainwarfare mode could be descriped as one from the very basic. I've used to think that as a normal way of any defending warfare. Altough Taiwan lacks the area often coupled with "area-defence" (as it also refered) some sort of echelon defence and luring the enemy coming to deep and then encircling it would do for Taiwanese as well.

I don't see how you can compare the pathetic airpower of WWII to the airpower of todays USN and USAF fleets. The best thing that can happen for any US invasion are the defenders to position in mass. It makes for one big killing field. Honestly I don't see how any conventional force can withstand this bombardment. Most armor, vehicles, mortars, aircraft and artillery will be destroyed before troops even get ashore. PLAAF can't do it but we sure can. The fact that Taiwan is an island would make controling it easier than say Iraq. Nothing gets in or out without notice. Using the leadership of purged Soviet generals and comparing them to the modern US Officer Corp is somewhat absurd as well. There is just no comparison to what we can do today. There are a few amphib landings that would scale this during WWII that were succesful against the third Reich. Put in terms of US firepower today you are septupling the chances of victory. No comparison...

 

[isthvan]

I agree. ROC needs a fast mobile force that can hit hard and pullback making PLA forces take heavy tolls and slowing them down. I was thinking the backbone of this force should be centered on the Rooikat AFV. Any of the assets PLA can get ashore can easily be delt with this fast moving hard hitter. They would end up walking to Taipei.

Well Taiwan is developing new 105mm version of CM32 IFV similar to Stryker MGS so there is no need for Rooikat... They are creating new mechanized units similar to Stryker brigades and that will greatly improve response time and flexibility of ROC army.
Problem is that PLAN marines use quite a lot of ATGMs and that they are using type 63a amphibious tank whit 105mm gun capable of firing ATGM. So while those light mobile forces can deal whit that threat they could still use some MBT support for attacks on beachheads. Like I said those forces combined whit few modern tanks could crush PRC beachheads before they can move inshore and there would be PLAN marines swimming back to PRC rather then walking to Taipei.

Ps. I hope that this will newer happen; can you imagine hardware prices if China attacks Taiwan? Whit new software last thing I want is high RAM prices;-)

 

[Gollevainen]

I don't see how you can compare the pathetic airpower of WWII to the airpower of todays USN and USAF fleets. The best thing that can happen for any US invasion are the defenders to position in mass. It makes for one big killing field. Honestly I don't see how any conventional force can withstand this bombardment. Most armor, vehicles, mortars, aircraft and artillery will be destroyed before troops even get ashore. PLAAF can't do it but we sure can. The fact that Taiwan is an island would make controling it easier than say Iraq. Nothing gets in or out without notice. Using the leadership of purged Soviet generals and comparing them to the modern US Officer Corp is somewhat absurd as well. There is just no comparison to what we can do today. There are a few amphib landings that would scale this during WWII that were succesful against the third Reich. Put in terms of US firepower today you are septupling the chances of victory. No comparison...

Do I smell bit of pride to your own branch there?

Well The WWII airpower wasen't pathetic at that time, the counter measuures were in par of the date....and the modern US airpower isen't so superior as you might think. Just look at the 99' Serbian campaing, the airdominance failed to inflict any significant damage to the VJ. And Taiwan have far more better airdefence network.

 

[gf0012-aust]

...but eventually, the Finns had to accede to the superior force and relinquish Karelia, some 10% Finnish territory and other concessions. There can be no doubt that Stalin could have taken Finland post Continuation War.

But, the big difference is that the Finns had no allies to call on - they were literally on their own. Taiwan is not in that position.

BTW: Do you recall the Finnish Defence minister of the day? Apparently he was some sort of joke within the Finnish Army for his poor stewardship of Finnish defence procurement and policy leading to the woeful provisioning of Finnish forces.

and the Finns still made a mess of the russians - even with poor gear a decent soldier will carry the game further than normal. it says a lot for the calibre of the Finns as soldiers that they outfought a much larger and better armed opponent even though they were backed up.

The key for Taiwan is their individual "soldiers" will as well as their military capability.

 

[gf0012-aust]

PLA air force will gain enough power in ten years.But now PLA can use electromagnetic pulse bomb.

well, not really. EMP effects them as well as the Taiwanese. and if the assumption is to surge after an EMP strike, then their forces have to be in place.

pre-poisitioning for sieze and hold = mass = selectable targets = unattractive proposition.

EMP won't do the job - and in 10 years time the Taiwanese will have a different capability as well.

 

[Big-E]

Do I smell bit of pride to your own branch there?

Well The WWII airpower wasen't pathetic at that time, the counter measuures were in par of the date....and the modern US airpower isen't so superior as you might think. Just look at the 99' Serbian campaing, the airdominance failed to inflict any significant damage to the VJ. And Taiwan have far more better airdefence network.

Heavens to besty if I toot my own horn.

The RMA since 99' is enough to boggle the mind. This was around the time I started my aviation career and I can't believe how much our capabilities have changed. Precision guided munitions back then were a luxery, now its all I ever use. It really comes down to intelligence. If we can see it we can hit. UAVs make it ever harder to hide from US airpower. I'm not saying we get em all, but we can sure put a dampener on their day and they would certainly think twice before exposing their postion. This means mobility would be extremly limited. ROC adfs would not be a huge threat to our large arsenal of jammers and HARM inventories. Considering we helped set it up I imagine we could just use existing intelligence and knock them out with TLAMS. From what I recall we conducted an air-war against Serbia and they withdrew, also thanks goes to the Finnish delegation. It must have made Milosevic think twice. But it was FUBAR how we had to get permission form all NATO allies before we bombed a tank. That would not be a problem in a ROC invasion.

 

[tntsas]

well, not really. EMP effects them as well as the Taiwanese. and if the assumption is to surge after an EMP strike, then their forces have to be in place.

pre-poisitioning for sieze and hold = mass = selectable targets = unattractive proposition.

EMP won't do the job - and in 10 years time the Taiwanese will have a different capability as well.

Most of the weapons of taiwan are buyed from Western countries.These weapon systems are depend on electronic technology.They will lose their power in the first several minutes.
But some of the PLA weapon systems are old.That means EMP will not have effect on them or just have a little.

And if the westen countries do not give weapon technolgy to Taiwan,PLA will gain enough superiority.

 

[Big-E]

Most of the weapons of taiwan are buyed from Western countries.These weapon systems are depend on electronic technology.They will lose their power in the first several minutes.

What are you going to do... detonate a nuclear blast in the atmosphere? Your just asking for WWIII.:mad3

But some of the PLA weapon systems are old.That means EMP will not have effect on them or just have a little.

Out goes WWIII in comes WWI.:lol2

 

[Supe]

Actually, we stop the soviet advance in 1944 (the sole/last failed strategical operation in the end of the war) and prevented them taking even more. Personally I doupt that soviets would have been able to beat us afterwards. Why else they would have stopped there and seddled for the relatively small area of Karelian penisula? Both the winterwar and the 1944 fightings are generally referedas a Torjuntavoitto (= defencevictory)

The Red Army that finished off the Germans in the East could have taken Finland. I don't say easily but it would have been accomplished.

A few key factors:

• Size of Red Army and Airforce (how many tank divisions did Finland have? Vs Soviet Union)
• Industrial base (how many tanks did Finland churn out? Artillery? Munitions?) Could Finland sustain for a lengthy period weapons/munitions/fuel production greater than the losses incurred and feed its soldiers?
• Willingness of Stalin and Generals to sacrifice soldiers
• Red Army incorporating the lessons learn't fighting in years since the disastrous Winter War campaign. Clearly it wasn't the same army that Finland brought to a standstill in 1939
• Small population of Finland = limited pool of able soldiers/limit to acceptable losses before Armed Forces become non viable entity.
• Raw numbers. In every quantifiable measurement, the Soviet Union dominates Finland.

What Finland achieved was remarkable and a testament to the martial prowess of its Armed Forces and of course to the Generalship of Mannerheim but don't let national pride distort a plain truth. Finland would not have survived the full enslaught of the Red Army.

As for a Taiwanese survival scenario. Are the majority of citizens of Taiwan inclined to defend their sovereignty with the same vigour as the Finns? Does common ethnicity play into this? Does mainstream Taiwan see itself as eventually being incorporated into a Greater China? If the answer to that is yes, then an invasion scenario is really academic. China will probably absorb Taiwan by default and by virtue of its own economic/political/social/cultural power. (Anyone who's played Sid Meier's Civ knows the power of cultural et al influence). Factor in lack of international recognition of Taiwan's status and from where I sit, things don't look good for continued Taiwanese independence.

Eventually, the forces for an independently assertive Taiwan could be sidelined through a strong China and and see Taiwan quietly incorporated into its large neighbour.

 

[swerve]

Can they hold back 200,000 marines... No! Can the throw the same number back with a counter attack...No! US would have air-dominance, any counterattack would be stopped before it even reached the point of crises. ROCs only choice is to go to guerilla. Thats really the only choice any nation has and its a pretty good one considering the outcome in you know where.

Does the USA have 200000 marines? No! The fully-mobilised strength of the USMC is almost 220K (180K active), but the majority of them aren't assault troops. Admin, air wing, etc, etc ... 3 active & 1 reserve divisions.

 

[Big-E]

Does the USA have 200000 marines? No! The fully-mobilised strength of the USMC is almost 220K (180K active), but the majority of them aren't assault troops. Admin, air wing, etc, etc ... 3 active & 1 reserve divisions.

So your saying those with support jobs don't count. When conducting total warfare I give credit where credit is due. Those men and women who are keeping those planes flying, those tanks running and that water flowing are just as important as those combat troops. They are in theatre and are an integral part of the operation. So I restate the question "Does the US have 200k marines?", yes it does.

 

[Wild Weasel]

Isn't it true that every Marine is a Rifleman?

 

[swerve]

So your saying those with support jobs don't count. When conducting total warfare I give credit where credit is due. Those men and women who are keeping those planes flying, those tanks running and that water flowing are just as important as those combat troops. They are in theatre and are an integral part of the operation. So I restate the question "Does the US have 200k marines?", yes it does.

But they won't be landing on beaches, & those beaches don't need to be defended against them. They're necessary, of course, to support those who will (or might) assault beaches, but saying 200 000 marines will assault anywhere is to ignore reality.

 

[Wild Weasel]

That's true enough. But then, those Marines that would be attacking would also be supported by a terrifying selection and numbers of proven strike weapons and force multiplyers. Basically they can do more with less.