Does Taiwan Army need an MBT?

[Gollevainen]

i am talking about the MBT.
leoII? is it 勇虎II in chinese?
i do'not know what PLA is about in your mind.but most of you seem to underestimated the capapility of the PLA.

I don't speak chinese, so I cannot help you in that matter. But Leopard II is a MBT and a one hell of a MBT...

What coming to my "underestimations", I'm just being realistic. It's more like many other have way too high belives about PLA and are overestimating it alot. Like BiG-E mentioned, the PLA's ability to perform a succesfull lading operation to Taiwan is limited. We can determ that by simply looking trough chinese current amphibious capapility:

25 of large LST type of vessels and about 50 smaller LST. Those ships are enough (in theory) for transfering single division size unit amoung their equipments. All ships are LST type which means they have to "beach" to get the equipment to shore. That means they are vunerable to basicly everything fired from the shore. PLA posses no helicopter assault capapility nor significant hovercraft force, not to mention LSD type of ships. LST are WWII relics in best, suited for tactical and perhaps an operatitive landings. To perform a strategical landings, which the take-over of Taiwan requires, you need the landing (plus powerprotection) capability near USMC scale...Not even soviets ever toughted they would be able to invade a country of Taiwan size merely just using amphibious forces

Now this theoretical division size unit, which the PLA at the moment able to land at the first stage is noway able to keep the bridgehead if Taiwan makes good counterefforts. Well conserated tankforce added with good command structure and working communication and supply lines makes wonders...PLA simply just isen't big enough (which is rahter ironical as it is the biggest) to takeover Taiwan if they decide to defend themselves.

 

[tntsas]

Thanks for your apply.
Though the number of the LST is little,the PLA can use other ships.For example fishing ships.
And the PLA can suppress the fire from the shore and the command structure by the air force ,electronic countermeasure and ballistic missiles.
If Taiwan makes good counterefforts. Well conserated tankforce added with good command structure and working communication and supply lines makes wonders ,no country can takeover Taiwan even the USA force.But the possibility is very very small.
The PLA is progressing step by step.

 

[Gollevainen]

Fishing ships aren't exactly quite usefull to transfer modern equipment...they cannot transfer any vehicles so in theory, only troops can be landed. But as these ships cannot beach, how do you expect the troops get to shore? swimming?

But you are right, in fact I doupt any power in this world, not even the all mighty USA cannot invade a island as big as Taiwan with as large army as they have and will to defend.

 

[tntsas]

The heavy equipment will be loaded in LST.The troops will be landed in fishing ships and use rubber dinghy to beach.
The air force shuts off the roads of Taiwan to stop tanks.Ballistic missiles will be used to destroyed the runways of the airports.
Submines with sea mine ambush surround taiwan to stop reenforce from other counties.

 

[Waylander]

Destroying the streets may hinder the movement of the Taiwanese forces and supply but movement against the beachhead cannot be stopped.
That is why I say that Taiwan needs a small but modern force of mechanized troops (MBTs, IFVs, self propelled howitzers and tank-pioneers).
If the unlikely happens and PLA is able to get a beachhead it is much harder for Taiwan to crush this beachhead just by using infantry.
With a good mechanized formation it should be much more easy for Taiwan to penetrate the defense perimeters of the PLA (likely light) division.
Time is also a factor which is an argument for a small but modern mechaized force. They are much more able to run a fast and powerfull attack against a beachhead.
So primary Taiwan should concentrate on Naval, Air Force and Infantry units but procure the small mechanized force I am talking of as a mobile reserve and counterattack force for the worst case.

 

[isthvan]

Well since China currently does not have sufficient amphibious capabilities to pose serious threat to Taiwan i think that combination of new mechanized brigades whit new CM-32 wheeled IFV and older M60A3 tanks is quite enough to deal whit Chinese amphibious tanks and IFV...

Nevertheless one or two brigades whit more modern tanks( Korean K1 or similar) would be quite god backup if PRC manages to establish beachheads( they could serve as core of counterattack force)... No light amphibious force couldn't last long against armored brigade especially if we look how limited air support PRC troops would probably have...

 

[Big-E]

But you are right, in fact I doupt any power in this world, not even the all mighty USA cannot invade a island as big as Taiwan with as large army as they have and will to defend.

You really don't think the full USMC could establish an LZ and that the surge of the Army couldn't finish the job with full support from USN carriers and the full power of the USAF... WOW we must be weaker than I thought.

 

[Big-E]

The heavy equipment will be loaded in LST.The troops will be landed in fishing ships and use rubber dinghy to beach.
The air force shuts off the roads of Taiwan to stop tanks.Ballistic missiles will be used to destroyed the runways of the airports.
Submines with sea mine ambush surround taiwan to stop reenforce from other counties.

There are a few holes in the plan. First you have to destroy the ROCAF and I mean literally. If you have rogue planes and helicopters flying around while these trawlers are coming in you will have another Tsunami landing with the beaches littered with dead PLA troops. Bombing roads is great but will only slow them down, not stop them. Bombing runways is still only a temporary solution, ROC forces have drilled for this and have clearing equipment on hand, they can put up or repair runways as fast as anyone can. The accuracy of PLA LACMs has yet to be demonstrated and leaves wonder in many minds. You so convienently forgot to mention ROC's Navy. She is no pushover and must be dealt with in order for these landings to occur... how do you plan to deal with them with ROCAF aircover... it's not so simple now is it?

 

[Big-E]

Well since China currently does not have sufficient amphibious capabilities to pose serious threat to Taiwan i think that combination of new mechanized brigades whit new CM-32 wheeled IFV and older M60A3 tanks is quite enough to deal whit Chinese amphibious tanks and IFV...

Nevertheless one or two brigades whit more modern tanks( Korean K1 or similar) would be quite god backup if PRC manages to establish beachheads( they could serve as core of counterattack force)... No light amphibious force couldn't last long against armored brigade especially if we look how limited air support PRC troops would probably have...

I agree. ROC needs a fast mobile force that can hit hard and pullback making PLA forces take heavy tolls and slowing them down. I was thinking the backbone of this force should be centered on the Rooikat AFV. Any of the assets PLA can get ashore can easily be delt with this fast moving hard hitter. They would end up walking to Taipei.

 

[Gollevainen]

You really don't think the full USMC could establish an LZ and that the surge of the Army couldn't finish the job with full support from USN carriers and the full power of the USAF... WOW we must be weaker than I thought.

Njet...USMC is the most powerfull landingforce, but still occupating Taiwan size country could be difficoult or even impossiple...In theory it could be possiple, perhaps when the Taiwanese forces literary run out of ammunitions, but the ammount of damage inflicted to the opressor is just too big that the planners and decicionmakers would ever allow that kind of operation.

 

[Big-E]

Njet...USMC is the most powerfull landingforce, but still occupating Taiwan size country could be difficoult or even impossiple...In theory it could be possiple, perhaps when the Taiwanese forces literary run out of ammunitions, but the ammount of damage inflicted to the opressor is just too big that the planners and decicionmakers would ever allow that kind of operation.

I think invading Iran would be a bigger nightmare and they have plans for that somewhere.

 

[Wild Weasel]

Once the shooting starts, the ROC should immediately assume an insurgent role.
To that end, their greatest assets should be shoulder-fired rockets, ATGMs, and SAMs. They should also purchase as many GPMGs, HMGs, AGLs, mortars, and artillery rockets as possible to rip the PLA apart if they manage to land troops.

As far as heavy armor is concerned, they should focus on tank-destroyers, and artillery pieces to deal with Chinese armor threats. It is quite likely that the PLA would use ballistic missiles to soften the ROC's defenses, so they should make sure that almost everything in their inventory is mobile, and under protected shelter as much as possible.
Particulary their air-defense, land-based anti-ship weapons, and civil defence forces should be rapidly deployable from hardened/deeply buried shelters.

As it's likely that the PLAN will probably have to use fishing boats and the like to transport troops- the ROC must be prepared to interdict these as far away from the island as possible. Naturally, the best weapons for this role would be subs and aircraft. And those are two areas that the ROC will be sorely lacking in, if the PRC actually attempts to invade.
So, that leaves sea-mines, land based ASHM's, and heavy artillery.
That is what I would stockpile if I were charged with the defense of Taiwan.

Additionally, it is theorized that the PRC would use commercial airliners as troop transports as well. Thus, intercepting these with fighters, and and SAMs must be a priority. But I expect that PLAAF airpower and missile forces will cause the ROCAF and SAMs serious damage early on.
So the answer is to arm the island with highly advanced and effective medium, and short-range SAMs, and SPAAGs systems. The Avenger, HUMRAAM, and CV9040 AD systems seem like they would be an excellent choice in this regard.

The Taiwanese could probably also borrow a page from the United States Cold War mentality of burying everything possible under the island's mountains to ensure continuation of government control- if they have not done so already.
The only hope the PRC has of taking Taiwan by force, is if they can capture and hold a significant amount of the ROC's land- before Taiwan's allies can arrive.
By digging in deep, and maintaining as much of their inventory intact as possible by holding it in reserve- this is probably not very difficult for the Taiwanese to achieve.

The allies will come- if they aren't already there when the shooting starts. All the ROC has to do is cover up, and hold their own ground while more capable forces push the PRC back to the mainland.

I know it's been said many times already, but I have to concur with the statement that the PRC won't just have a tough time of it- they may be beaten badly at the end of the day.

 

[Gollevainen]

I think invading Iran would be a bigger nightmare and they have plans for that somewhere

Well Iran is completely different case, it's not an Island....

As far as heavy armor is concerned, they should focus on tank-destroyers, and artillery pieces to deal with Chinese armor threats.

Tank destroyers are good in defence fighting, but you cannot make counter offensive with them. Becouse without counterattack capability, the defence is pointless as you cannot explode the defensive victory in any means.
So why not invest MBTs which are as good in the defencemode as tankdestroyers and unbeatable element of offensive warfare??

 

[Big-E]

Well Iran is completely different case, it's not an Island....

I don't see what the difficulty would be, all the USMC has to do is take the harbor of Keelung and hold it while the Army surges into the port. Once all the forces have arrived they would breakout and overwhelm the defenders. ROCAF/ROCN wouldn't last 5 minutes against the onslaught.

 

[Gollevainen]

I don't doupt that USMC can take the bridgehead, but can they keep it long enough? They face a counterattacks with backs against the wall (or ocean in this case) Amhpibious assaults are always very unpredictable and the relatively small size of Taiwan gives the defender an advantage, they can concerate their most effective pounch to narrow area and thus push back the invaders...

 

[Big-E]

I don't doupt that USMC can take the bridgehead, but can they keep it long enough? They face a counterattacks with backs against the wall (or ocean in this case) Amhpibious assaults are always very unpredictable and the relatively small size of Taiwan gives the defender an advantage, they can concerate their most effective pounch to narrow area and thus push back the invaders...

Can they hold back 200,000 marines... No! Can the throw the same number back with a counter attack...No! US would have air-dominance, any counterattack would be stopped before it even reached the point of crises. ROCs only choice is to go to guerilla. Thats really the only choice any nation has and its a pretty good one considering the outcome in you know where.

 

[gf0012-aust]

I don't doupt that USMC can take the bridgehead, but can they keep it long enough? They face a counterattacks with backs against the wall (or ocean in this case) Amhpibious assaults are always very unpredictable and the relatively small size of Taiwan gives the defender an advantage, they can concerate their most effective pounch to narrow area and thus push back the invaders...

Amphibious assault against a co-ordinated defence is regarded as requiring a 5:1 force ratio - whereas normal force dominance ratios are 3:1

I would not like to be a military force attempting an amphib assault against the Taiwanese coastline - there are somevery ugly bits that are well defended both at a natural level and at an armed level. The coastline itself means that amphib assaults can be predicted at various locations.

an aerial insertion is basically out of the question, a descending force would be slaughtered.

Taiwan basically needs only a couple of days to hold out - and I struggle to see where the PLAN has the mass and persistence to get ashore unmolested. A missile barrage, although widely touted as the opening chorus, doesn't seem to me to be able to suppress enough Taiwanese capability either. There are bits of Taiwan that look like Swedish and Swiss military bases - if you get my meaning.

 

[Wild Weasel]

With a fair bit of Viet Cong tunneling thrown in for good measure.
I can think of few other nations that are so well prepared, and geographically situated to repel a massive onslaught by another nation only a stone's throw away.

While it's been wargamed out a million times, and I never get bored with the premise, I have reached the point where I would find it very difficult to believe the PRC would ever attempt something so reckless.

 

[Big-E]

Taiwan basically needs only a couple of days to hold out - and I struggle to see where the PLAN has the mass and persistence to get ashore unmolested. A missile barrage, although widely touted as the opening chorus, doesn't seem to me to be able to suppress enough Taiwanese capability either. There are bits of Taiwan that look like Swedish and Swiss military bases - if you get my meaning.

I agree with this wholeheartedly. I am rather skeptical of the damage her LACMs are supposed to be able to provide. Especially with the precautions ROC forces have taken. The only thing I see with the penetration and accuracy to take them out belong to the US inventory, not PLA.

 

[Gollevainen]

Can they hold back 200,000 marines... No! Can the throw the same number back with a counter attack...No! US would have air-dominance, any counterattack would be stopped before it even reached the point of crises. ROCs only choice is to go to guerilla. Thats really the only choice any nation has and its a pretty good one considering the outcome in you know where

Easily, we held 1,000,000 soviets with far bigger equipment quantity/quality cap and we didn't have the ocean in our ally...

Even USCM cannot land 200,000 troops in single beach-head.

Talking about "gurellian" warfare is somewhat weird to me personaly as our mainwarfare mode could be descriped as one from the very basic. I've used to think that as a normal way of any defending warfare. Altough Taiwan lacks the area often coupled with "area-defence" (as it also refered) some sort of echelon defence and luring the enemy coming to deep and then encircling it would do for Taiwanese as well.